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SSP Daily Digest: 4/17

by: Crisitunity

Fri Apr 17, 2009 at 2:28 PM EDT


NY-20 (pdf): This morning's official tally from the BoE gives Scott Murphy a whopping lead of 268. This new number reflects the addition of all the remaining absentees from Columbia County, where Murphy performed well on Election Day and apparently even better among absentees. There are still 1,200 absentee ballots that haven't been counted because they were subject to challenge; they'll be reviewed starting Monday.

Jim Tedisco isn't waiting around for those ballots, though; he's already asking the courts to declare him the victor. Wait... what? Isn't he the one who's behind? (The Tedisco camp has tried to clarify that they were re-filing a motion that they filed on Election Day, to also have Tedisco declared the winner, as some sort of 'insurance policy.' OK, that makes me feel much better.)

CA-10: BigDust broke the story yesterday in diaries: Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, seeing his gubernatorial campaign sputtering and lured by the siren call of a term-limits-free job, has more-or-less confirmed that the rumors are true and he's jumping into the 10th District special election, where state senator Mark DeSaulnier had already nailed down the 'establishment' candidate mantle. (Unlike other frequent job-hopper Tom McClintock, Garamendi actually has the advantage of living in the district.)

KY-Sen, SD-Sen: The message can't get much clearer than this. Mitch McConnell is hosting a fundraiser in the state of Kentucky for his fellow senator... John Thune? That's right; McConnell would rather help a guy from South Dakota defending a safe seat than help his fellow Kentuckian Jim Bunning, who has already been complaining about how McConnell is sucking up all the fundraising oxygen in the state.

CT-Sen: Chris Dodd may have raised a million bucks last quarter, but only five donors were from his home state of Connecticut. And before you can say "But what about donations below $200 which don't require detailed disclosure?", we'll just point out that Dodd took in under $2,300 total from that category of donors. Sigh. (D)

On the plus side for Dodd, he got a hearty endorsement and a promise of future help from someone a little more popular than him: Barack Obama. "Chris is going through a rough patch," says Obama.

NH-Sen: Paul Hodes raised $225K this quarter, which doesn't seem like a whole lot, does it? (D)

NJ-Gov: Governor Jon Corzine, facing a tough re-election, has another problem: his gross income last year was negative $2.75 million. You've got to assume that his overall net worth (once estimated at $300 million) has taken a much, much larger hit, so that calls into question his willingness, if not ability, to moneybomb the race as he did with his last two runs for office.

TX-Gov: I never thought I'd have to say this out loud, but Governor Rick Perry may not have a winning issue on his hands when he makes veiled secession threats. A Rasmussen snap-poll finds that 75% of Texans would prefer to remain a part of the USA. 18% prefer secession, and 7% just aren't sure. Not coincidentally, a similar percentage of the Texas state senate (71%) just voted, 22-9, to ignore Perry and accept the $550 million in federal stimulus money to keep their state unemployment trust fund from going broke.

Words: Here's a fun time-suck: a website that lets you create a word cloud for most-used words in a particular day, week, month, or year in the Congressional Record, or for a particular lawmaker.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/17
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Washington easily passes domestic partnership bill, Gregoire to sign
Not quite full marriage rights, but a nice start.  Has your head exploded yet Kyle?

http://www.spokesman.com/blogs...

After long debate, the state House of Representatives this afternoon approved an "everything but marriage" bill granting same-sex domestic partners most of the rights and responsibilities of spouses.

The bill passed, 62-35. It now goes to Gov. Chris Gregoire, who is expected to sign it into law.

The vote was largely along party lines. Democrats argued that the bill is a simple matter of fairness for same-sex couples, in things like getting benefits when a partner is killed on the job.

"The principal we're talking about is equal rights under the law. It's that simple," said Rep. Roger Goodman, D-Kirkland.

Republicans and one conservative Democrat argued against the change, with many saying the bill is a legal path to full same-sex marriage in Washington.

"Everybody knows that this is what this debate is about," said Rep. Dan Roach, R-Sumner. He and other opponents of the bill urged the House to instead send the matter to voters.

"Those that are proponents of this bill know that a referendum will not pass," he said. "The people are not ready for that."



Hey, take it easy on Kyle.
Also, does WA have a state senate?  If so, did this bill already pass it, and by how much?  And what's the popular opinion of this bill among Washington residents?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Why does that homophobic Rethug
get a pass here?  To be quite frank, he sounds like an intelligent right-wing operative who makes himself seem reasonable and fools a lot of people here.  I really dislike that dude.

The only Repub of any kind that I have found reasonable here is the guy from Harris County, TX (who said he is an independent who voted for McCain).


[ Parent ]
And so what if he's actually a partisan operative and fools people around here?
What good would that do?  This blog is completely public anyway.

And you DO realize that being polite to a person doesn't necessarily mean endorsing their opinion, right?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...


[ Parent ]
I've given my opinion about Repubs before
I don't think they have any use to society whatsoever.  They are completely worthless at best, and are usually very harmful.  Most of the people in that party are terrorists and traitors, they prove it regularly, and have a desire to overthrow the President.

[ Parent ]
Let's end this conversation right here, please.
I have no desire to see this thread get clogged with more comments like the one above.

[ Parent ]
Sorry
Didnt see your post there before i made my reply.

[ Parent ]
Most?
Well that's great news considering only around 300K showed up to the tea parties if that makes up a majority of ALL Republicans I say we should just go ahead with our rabidly socialistic agenda. I mean what are 600K or so Republicans going to do about it?

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog

[ Parent ]
Thank you
I appreciate the words. And though I voted for McCain I have to say I agree with Obama on more of the issues. And I can definitely see myself voting for Obama in 2012.  

[ Parent ]
Why do you deep getting a pass here?
The site would be better without your hate.

[ Parent ]
Just to clarify
Washington has already had domestic partnership (as created by the legislature) for about three years. This is a new and improved version that adds additional property rights in order to make it as similar to actual marriage as possible (at least in terms of rights under state law; at the federal level, obviously, it's irrelevant until DOMA is gone).

[ Parent ]
Be nice
I have always seen Kyle to be polite here.  This is a good day for Washington, and the country.  Each state that moves towards equality is generating more momentum for overturning DOMA.

[ Parent ]
Boy Kyle has fooled a lotta people here


[ Parent ]
Weird
Coming from a guy who is a double-agent himself.  lol  

[ Parent ]
Yup
which is how I know whom the double agents on the other side are like.  Kyle fits one perfectly.

[ Parent ]
lolwut?
in any case, SSP is probably the most non-partisan of the Democratic blogs around.  Republicans really don't have any equivalent on their side, a blog that tracks elections and horse-race data with the level of professionalism we have here.  I can easily understand why some conservatives would read SSP to get the news they don't get on redstate.

[ Parent ]
www.electionprojection.com isn't that bad
But that's probably in large part because it's closed to comments.

[ Parent ]
Two best ways to prevent internet idiocy on a website
1. Prevent people from posting their opinions.
2. Make the content so boring (to people who engage in idiocy, at least) so that they won't spam up the place.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Too bad
That the author of the site still posts comments.  He should stick to numbers.

[ Parent ]
I was only kidding Kyle
I thought that was obvious...

[ Parent ]
hard to gauge context over the internet
you know how it is, I'm never entirely sure when people are joking, sarcastic, or snarky.

[ Parent ]
Here's a rundown
ChadInFL - snarky
Glenn Magus - snarky
IHateBush - NOT snarky, even if you are sure it's a snark he's dead serious

[ Parent ]
haha
I love how this turned into an "I <3 Kyle" thread. Which, btw... I do <3 Kyle, and once Prop 8 is repealed, I'm going to propose. lol At least you can talk and debate with Kyle without him calling you names and leaving. lol

[ Parent ]
I agree.


Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

[ Parent ]
CA-10
Is Garamendi term limited or can he run once more?

I hate to see an expensive battle for the democratic nomination.


in CA-10?
I doubt it will matter much there. And Garimendi is not term limited as LG, he was jsut elected in 2006 and he's one of the few non-office jumpers as he came from the state senate.

It appears state Democrats are clearing it for Jerry Brown.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
which is interesting
especially looking at the long and strange path he took to get back to the pinnacle of California politics.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Maybe I'm not understanding your use of the term
But by any definition Garimendi is the #1 "office jumper" in California politics.  He has served in all sorts of offices, and run for others.  Him being elected to Congress might get him to finally settle down since he has to run for re-election every two years.

[ Parent ]
LG is the only statewide one


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
what about his two terms as Insurance Commissioner?
   umm, isn't that a statewide office?   Hey, I like Garamendi (and would support him for Gov over Jerry, Gavin or Antonio) but let's be real; he is as much as a jobhopper as any of them. It just seems that after losing primaries for Gov before (including to the hapless Kathy Brown in 1994) he would rather win something than lose to Jerry...

[ Parent ]
No, he's jumped in and out
of Insurance Commisioner, ran for Gov several times (and made virtually no impact anytime).

The guy has never been happy with the job he has, and has both jumped from office to office, and tried to jump to different offices.

His run for LtGov against Tom McClintock was the ultimate jumper versus jumper election.  


[ Parent ]
Not the ultimate.
We could have had side helpings of Alan Keyes too.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
He's in his first term as LG
He could run again in 2010 were he to choose.

[ Parent ]
VA-Gov: Trouble for Brian Moran?
Brian Moran's biggest problems have always been his doofus older brother Rep. James Moran.  This may just compound his problems in keeping a distance from him.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

More than a dozen defense contractors with business before U.S. Rep. James P. Moran Jr. (D-Va.), a member of the powerful House Appropriations defense subcommittee, have donated thousands of dollars to Moran's younger brother Brian, a candidate for governor of Virginia.

Brian Moran filed a campaign finance report this week that shows he collected $80,000 during the first three months of 2009 from 18 contractors that have been longtime backers of the congressman. Seven of the firms are awaiting approval of Moran-backed earmarks totaling $14.5 million.

Many of the firms are Virginia-based, and those executives who would speak about the gifts said they have long been politically active in the state and have known both brothers for years. Others have been heavy federal contributors with little involvement in state politics. Most have benefited from Jim Moran's role in crafting defense spending bills each year.



Better title: Trouble in Moranland?


[ Parent ]
Should we look to someone else for better Deeds?


Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Gov Palin's pick for Alaska State AG voted down by AK legislature
By a 35-23 vote.  That's a heck of a lot of republicans who voted against.  Congrats on making history Governor.

http://www.adn.com/news/politi...

JUNEAU -- The Alaska Legislature voted 35 to 23 on Thursday to reject the confirmation of Wayne Anthony Ross, Gov. Sarah Palin's pick for attorney general.

According to Legislative Research Services, it was the first time in state history a head of a state agency has failed to be confirmed by the Legislature. All the Democrats in the Legislature voted against Ross and were joined by nine Republicans, including the Senate president and House speaker.

"I think he is too controversial for the state of Alaska. We've got in some people's mind a controversial governor, and I think that he just has too many controversies out there," said House Speaker Mike Chenault, a Nikiski Republican.

Even Ross' opponents in the Legislature had said just a few days ago that he had enough support to be confirmed despite widespread opposition from Alaska Native groups, his calling gays "degenerates" in the 1990s, and allegations that he made offensive comments about women. But a tipping point appeared to come this week when Ross gave what lawmakers called bad and politicized legal advice to Palin about a fight she's having with lawmakers over a state Senate appointment.

Palin suggested lawmakers who voted no were turning their backs on voters. They rejected an attorney general, she said, who strongly supports the issues important to Alaskans -- gun rights, constitutional rights and developing resources to the maximum benefit of residents.



GG Palin
Helping dissolve her own aura of invincibility!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
yeah, she's pushing herself
if we can just get her below 60% in Alaska then there is some hope yet.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
hahaha
always good to see the Alaska state legislature take the wind out of Palin's sails.  They really don't get along with her.

[ Parent ]
KY. The Bunning show, second series
McConnell's a jerk, but I gotta nod at his wicked hardball tactics giving fundraisers in KY for an out-of-state pol.

It will be so hilarious to watch if he started giving a string of fundraisers in KY for every Repub out there EXCEPT for Bunning.  Won't be many dimes in KY left for poor Jimmy.

I wonder if Bunning would like to take a baseball and bean him, but McConnell's skull is probably so thick and Bunning's fastball nowadays is probably so slow that he hardly would even notice.


this is only going to make him more determined
to keep running and spit in McDonnell's face. He's personally wealthy to and could put a lot of his own money in.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Thune
He's not considering switching to run for Governor is he?  That's the only reason I can think of for needing to raise any real money.

I can't imagine
that Thune would want to give up his safe seat in the US Senate to run against Herseth-Sandlin for the Governor's seat. He might be preparing for a Presidential run, with those numbers

[ Parent ]
Thune's my waaaay early pick...
for GOP frontrunner in 2012. I definitely think he's going to run.

As for WA, why the heck don't they just go all the way and do gay marriage. I guess it's nice that they're expanding on their already-existing DP's, but I'd rather just see them finish the job. (Wow, there were a lot of unintended sexual innuendos in that post, sorry!)


[ Parent ]
Perhaps this was easier?
Apparently they've strengthened their DPs (don't laugh!) to the point that they include all the state benefits of marriage, with the assumption that later on they would add the name "marriage" as well.  If the choice was between that and seeing a full marriage bill fail, well I think they made the right choice.

Hawaii was trying to do something similar recently, pass a civil union bill that included all the rights of marriage, which is part of the reason opposition was so heavy.


[ Parent ]
Thune
If Palin and Huckabee end up getting in the race I dont know how Thune could win. Hes very popular amongst socially conservative Republicans but Palin and Huckabee are more popular. If Thune had known, over a couple years ago, that the public wouldnt have minded a 4 year Senator being Pres. then maybe hed have run himself in 2008. And he might have had a good shot. He should just wait until 2016.

[ Parent ]
He wouldn't face Harseth-Sandlin
I think it's pretty obvious that if he vacated his Senate seat she would turn around and run for Senate.

[ Parent ]
Hmmm
I'd be alright with that, actually.

[ Parent ]
Arcuri
raised 90% of his donations from PACs. This coming after a lackluster performance in 2008. He still seems to be taking his seat for granted and looks like a lazy campaigner which I could udnerstand if he was at the forefront of a lot of legislative issues but he's a quiet back benching legislator as well. What's with this laziness?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

This is a seat we could easily lose in 2010.
There is a lot of Republican strength in this district.  Obama barely carried it 51-49, one of his worst performances in upstate NY.

[ Parent ]
I don't get Arcuri
He went all out in his initial 2006 election and clobbered a top-tier candidate in Meier by 9 points.  He draws a low 2nd-tier at best candidate in 2008 and wins a tight 2 point race.  He really needs to get his act together.

[ Parent ]
Actually a 4% margin
Arcuri beat him 130,799 to 120,880.  It looked closer earlier on but he pulled a bit farther ahead later.

So in fact Arcuri did outperform Obama, just not by as much as I expected, considering the way he easily dispatched a moderate state senator in 2006.

Hopefully 2008 was his wakeup call.  He seems to vote decently despite holding a rather purple district.


[ Parent ]
The Democrats successfully nationalized the election
The way he won that seat in the first place was to run against George Bush and the war in Iraq. His Republican opponent was essentially irrelevant, and in the end he was mostly running against the NRCC (one of their famous ads of the cycle was against him). It's a pretty seriously Republican district at the local level.  

[ Parent ]
we're getting there


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
No MN-06 update? :D
http://minnesotaindependent.co...

With all due respect to the Tink, I'm crossing my fingers for some Clarkmentum. (Tarrylsteria?) She's young, she's got a solid voting record, and she's set up a YouTube page, suggesting she understands the need to reach out to the masses:

http://www.youtube.com/user/ta...

I think we have a better chance of winning with her on the ticket.


Nice to see
they haven't written MN-06 off.  Bachmann will always underperform GOP strength in that district.  Tinklenberg should have been the nominee in 2006, it's a shame he was mostly ignored in 2008 until Bachmann started saying nutty things late in the campaign.

I wonder what the field is looking like for MN-02 and MN-03.  Obama almost won Kline's district, and easily carried Paulsen's.


[ Parent ]
I live in MN-02
I think it could go Democratic eventually. Kline is as reticent as Bachmann is attention-hungry, so there's no fun soundbites to work with, just his extremely partisan voting record. (This is a guy who voted against emergency funding after the I-35W collapse!) I think the key would be a bigger GOTV campaign, since turnout isn't great here compared to the rest of the state.

And I do hope Sarvi runs again, because he was a great candidate. As I went around canvassing, I found that most people had never heard of him before, but were impressed when they heard his story - especially that he's an Iraq War veteran. If he could just raise his profile, I think he could win it. He'd make an excellent Congressman.


[ Parent ]
Your nickname reminds me of PA-15
Anyone heard whether Siobhan Bennett or anyone else is thinking of denting Dent?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Clark vs. Bachmann
I smell another Markey v. Musgrave!  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Tink may have run "a piss-poor campaign", but
he seems to be standing up and taking his lumps and learning from the experience and his missteps.
Why run a newbie to make THEIR newbie mistakes, whatever those turn out too be?

Anyway, I suspect Bachmann probably wins again against whoever our person is; she seems somehow to have that district's number, sadly.

(2012 redistricting can't get here too quickly.)


[ Parent ]
actually she reminds of Musgrave
slowly driving more people away. I think we just need a good candidate to run a strong campaign.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Clark wont be running for Congress anytime soon
She is acting like she's a Gov candidate as I'm sure she's angling for the Lt Gov nod.  Im starting to think that there wont be any good women candidates in the race as Gaertner is a huge dud and Kelliher probably wont get in with Coleman and Rybak also getting in post-mayoral elections so it'll almost certainly be a woman picked at Lt Gov and she is by far the most likely woman to get the nod.

If she wanted to run, she would've done in 2008 and I'll say now she would've won.  Tinklenberg is believed to have won in 2006 (Wetterling was a bad idea, wrong type of local celebrity) and I believe Clark would've won as it wouldn't have taken Bachmann's huge mouth to make her competitive and to make it a race.


[ Parent ]
NY20
With all ballots counted except challenged ballots and "set asides", Murphy leads by 273.  So what does Tedisco do now?  Ironically, to have any chance, he must now argue to count challenged ballots, most of which, he himself challenged.  This one is over folks.

He hopes that corrupt Dutchess County Republicans overturn the result.
Which isn't likely (I don't think even Republicans would be so brazen), but possible given the fact that Dutchess County Republicans routinely ignore the law and have their own little political machine. This is a place where anyone who wanted to have anything to do with local government registered as Republicans until very recently.

[ Parent ]
Doesn't
Maurice Hinchey -- who strikes me as about as scrupulous a politician as you'd ever see in New York -- represent the Poughkeepsie part of Dutchess? Or is he routinely elected in spite of Dutchess County?

[ Parent ]
Pretty sure Poughkeepsie is Democratic.
Dutchess votes Democratic most of the time on the federal level (though I don't think that was the case until recently), but is dominated on the local and state level by Republicans (though that is changing. The Democrats took over the county legislature recently).

My point was that they are extremely corrupt and will use any means at their disposal to hold on to their declining power. There was a Republican official that just stopped registering new voters before the election, for example. David Gamache, the Republican election Commissioner, has also decided to ignore the law entirely and refuse to create a new voting district for Bard College, despite the district being much larger than allowed under NY law.

It's less likely that they'll try to pull something off in this election just because it's too high-profile, but if there's anywhere I would expect shenanigans from Republicans it's in Dutchess County. And the Tedisco camp agrees, given that they have filed all their idiotic lawsuits in Dutchess.


[ Parent ]
southern part of Dutchess is very liberal
I might actually in my plan eliminate Hinchey's district assuming he retires andput Tompkins in NY-29 to protect Massa and Democratic chances their in the long run and give Chris lee all of Monroe county instead of just a few of the most Republican parts which still voted against him.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Long Island was the same way
Nassau County was until 2001.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
NH-Sen
How expensive is it to run in New Hampshire?  

I imagine there isn't that much pressure on Hodes to raise so much money, as he has no primary opponent nor a credible one for the general election. Once an opponent emerges, those numbers will increase.

TX:

I love how the state senate basically said "Ignore Gov. Goodhair, we'll take the money now!"

Alaska:

Once again, Palin gets rebuffed by her own party. I get the distinct feeling that they are getting as annoyed with her as the rest of us (though, she's at least entertaining).


2012
I hope that if the 2012 Republican nominee is Jindal, Palin, Perry, or Sanford, that the Obama campaign makes an effort to win their states by pointing out the Obama was going to help them while their governor played politics.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I dare say
NH-Sen 2010 will be like VA-Sen 2008 or PA-Sen 2006, an easy win for the Democrats unless someone like Sununu comes back.

The Republicans have nobody of stature in New Hampshire anymore? Maybe the Mayor of Manchester...but I can't think of who else.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
I think Sununu is expect to jumpin
and try to salvage his career.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Probably will
Not that it'll matter.  Hodes would be a favorite against him.

[ Parent ]
I hope so
I never feel comfortable with NH. After the 2008 Democratic primary I don't trust the polls there too much, but I was glad to see Shaheen do as well as expected.

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog

[ Parent ]
and Obama
56-43, won every county, even against the strongest Republican the GOP could have possibly nominated and who was always especially strong in NH>

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Sununu and Shaheen
both spent over $8 million:

http://www.opensecrets.org/rac...

And that's not counting NRSC/DSCC expenditures.


[ Parent ]
That is incorrect. The numbers on that site never matched up with Shaheen's numbers
She only raised about 5.5 or 6 million IIRC.  

A-ha - 6.641 Million.  You have to search for her fundraising reports.  Page 2

http://query.nictusa.com/pdf/0...


[ Parent ]

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