GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray may be up against a familiar face in 2010. From a press release freshly delivered to my inbox:
Encinitas, CA – Francine Busby will formally announce her candidacy for California’s 50th Congressional District at a press conference to be held Thursday, April 16th at 12:00pm at Cottonwood Park in Encinitas, 95 N. Vulcan Avenue.
President Barack Obama won the district by over 4% in the 2008 general election (51% to 46.8%). These figures represent a stark change in a political landscape that saw President George H.W. Bush carry the district by 11.3% in 2004. Democrats have made significant strides in decreasing the voter registration gap from over 56,000 in 2004 to less than 36,000 in 2008. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has also put the 50th Congressional District on its target list for the 2010 election cycle.
As most Swingnuts are aware, Busby ended up losing the 2006 special election for this seat by just under five points, and went on to lose the November ’06 rematch by double that margin (but with only a fraction of the resources behind her). Undoubtedly, she must feel inspired by Nick Leibham’s close call last November (he lost by only 4% to Bilbray) and the overall pro-Dem trend of the district’s voter registration and Presidential performance.
I’m not yet sold on another Busby rematch here, but she won’t be the only option in the Democratic primary; attorney Tracy Emblem has also recently announced her candidacy for the seat, but it remains to be seen just how formidable of an opponent she’ll be (her website could use some serious work, for starters).
This seat was completely winnable when the Dukester went to the can, but we lost because we couldn’t rustle up a respectable candidate. Given how the 50th voted in November, we can beat Bilbray, but we need a strong nominee. Francine Busby is not that candidate.
Any State Senators, Reps or mayors who might be a little more, ahem, formidable?
I read this earlier and just though, really? I think that this seat is completely do-able… Just not so sure with her. I think this district is changing, and I think they could use some new faces. After awhile, people don’t want to vote for someone that has already lost two many times. So, we’ll see.
that it will be our year in California to win all those Obama districts including this one. I think a lot of the close results had to do with pro-Obama coatails. But it’s important to run hard in all the districts to keep the Republican cash reserves low so I’m glad we’ll at least have a semi-viable candidate in Busby who will hopefully make Bilbray spend all his money and keep it close. Then we can win the district in 2012.
“George HW Bush” carried any district in 2004.
Particularly if she still believes illegal immigrants should be allowed to vote.
and how it torpedoed her chances in NM-1. that’s how congressinoal races go. you work hard. speak every day, shake thousands of hands, answer questionnaires. carefully hone your positions and newspapers and tv barely cover it. then one wrong answer at a critical time and that’s the end, no matter what you did before. and ti’s true for republicans as well.
but are there any good state reps, senators, county commissioners in the area (or nearby so they could be redistricted in)?