The 50th is winnable, but not with Francine

This seat was completely winnable when the Dukester went to the can, but we lost because we couldn't rustle up a respectable candidate.  Given how the 50th voted in November, we can beat Bilbray, but we need a strong nominee.  Francine Busby is not that candidate.

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 00:26:47 AM UTC

Ya

Francine is a dud.  If she's our nominee my guess is another 10 point loss similar to the 2006 general.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 00:32:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

i dunno

the districts been moving strongly to Democrats the last four years, particularly with Hispanic growth. Even if Bilbary survives the San Diego area can support more than one Democrat so State Democrats can risk trying to gerrymander Bilbary a little.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 00:58:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

While I'm not especially high on Busby

I think this was a very difficult seat in early 2006. The results were almost identical to the special election for the SD mayor's race the prior year, so it was not a huge surprise. (SD basically overlaps with this district.) I'm not sure another candidate could have done much better, and anyhow, no one stepped up.

I think this district has gotten a lot easier, though, considering it swung an impressive 15 points in the presidential election.

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by: DavidNYC @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 04:59:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

SD doesn't overlap the district.

It's made up mostly of the north county suburbs. Also, IIRC, the Democratic candidate for SD mayor actually won, and then was robbed in broad daylight.

All I have to say about Busby is that I'm not optimistic. She had no platform in 2006, all she did was run vague, largely non-partisan ads about corruption. I'm not sure how much of this was her fault and how much was Rahm's fault, but regardless her campaign was run poorly.

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by: Kanamit @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 05:08:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

indeed, I watched her ads,

about a 12 all about corruption, I think she drove people crazy with it, 2 million dolalrs on nonstop ads about cleaning up. She ran with no platform on anything else, not even on education, or illegal immigration, and that's why she lost to Bilbary, the more experienced politician, even though he had a third party candidate sucking up the far right loonies who didn't like him and still don't like him.

He should be one of the five Republicans Democrats target in California. Obama won Susan Davis' shored up district 68-30, it could easily be redistricted to where there were two 59-40 or so districts. Bilbary has proved in the past that he can't win in strongly Democratic leaning districts with large hispanic populations; he lost to Susan Davis in 2000 in a district that was only about 54-46 Gore.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 13:25:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmm

You're right - my mistake. Why do you say that we were "robbed" in the SD mayor's race?

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by: DavidNYC @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 22:51:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Democratic candidate was a write-in.

Why, I don't know. Probably because the San Diego Democratic Party is inept. Basically the Democratic candidate clearly won, but enough ballots were rejected because the voter wrote in her name but forgot to bubble in write-in to tilt it in the Republican's favor. Apparently California has never heard of "voter intent."

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by: Kanamit @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 23:56:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do we have a base here?

Any State Senators, Reps or mayors who might be a little more, ahem, formidable?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 01:10:10 AM UTC

there was one guy

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 01:23:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

gah

I read this earlier and just though, really? I think that this seat is completely do-able... Just not so sure with her. I think this district is changing, and I think they could use some new faces. After awhile, people don't want to vote for someone that has already lost two many times. So, we'll see.

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by: Venslor @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 01:15:28 AM UTC

I'm not conviced

that it will be our year in California to win all those Obama districts including this one. I think a lot of the close results had to do with pro-Obama coatails. But it's important to run hard in all the districts to keep the Republican cash reserves low so I'm glad we'll at least have a semi-viable candidate in Busby who will hopefully make Bilbray spend all his money and keep it close. Then we can win the district in 2012.  

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by: Populista @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 02:46:56 AM UTC

Same here

I think we'll pick off 1, maybe 2 of the California seats in 2010.  The key is getting as many top-tier recruits as possible for 2010 in anticipation of many of the marginal seats being gerrymandered in our favor in 2012.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 03:10:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed.

That is why I am listing all the seats in the House delegation and state legislature that are possible pick-ups for us. I don't expect us to win them all (though if we did it would be great), but if we don't try, then we will definitely not win. That is why we should run strong recruits in as many of these districts as possible.

As for Busby, while I strongly supported her in 2006, I too think she, who lost twice to Bilbray is not exactly a strong contender to take him on again, even if CA-50 voted for Obama. We'll just have to get into "wait and see" mode again.

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 03:18:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

agreed

but that is why I think pushing into California in 2010 is so important.. man, 2010... That even sounds scary to write. This will be the last election to win districts before the next set of redistricting. The way I look at it, the California legislature is probably, 90% chance, going to engage in another bi-partisan redistricting map, just like they did in 2002. They're going to safe guard their elected official. If the Democrats don't agree to that, Republicans will most likely still have just enough votes to stall the state budget indefinitely. They will have to compromise, OR, if our dear friend Cali in Texas points out, we need to capture enough GOP legislature seats to be able to control the budget. That is really, honestly, the only power that the GOP has in this entire state, but its impressive. Nearly ever seat we win in 2010, will almost certainly be made to be protected after 2012. If we miss this opportunity, we run the risk of losing these seats as they are made even safer for Republican incumbents, although, that is getting more and more difficult in California.  

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by: Venslor @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 16:49:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is understandable.

Though what I'm thinking is that even if 2008 was a high-water mark for us in California, we should still work these districts hard, because they have been trending our way for a while, I think since the Clinton years.

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 03:20:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I dont think

"George HW Bush" carried any district in 2004.

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by: BigDust @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 14:21:28 PM UTC

it was a write in upset.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 15:26:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No way

Particularly if she still believes illegal immigrants should be allowed to vote.

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 16:33:43 PM UTC

holy...

Do you have a link to anything with that? If she believes that, she'll never win. And anyone who thinks she can win, does not get California at all. Wow. I seriously didn't know about that. This state is still, from what I've been able to see, is still fairly against drivers licenses for illegal immigrants. Man.  

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by: Venslor @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 16:52:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's what blew her chances in the 2006 CA-50 special

She was basically caught on tape saying exactly that at some kind of rally.  Her poll numbers seemed to crater after that remark.  Look it up on youtube and you can probably find the audio on it.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 17:00:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

wow

Okay, seriously... She is completely damaged goods now. I really hadn't heard that, not sure how I missed that. I'd say that idea would be opposed by at least 60% of Californians, and probably a higher number in that particular district. I mean, that isn't even possible with the Constitution, is it? I mean, wow.

So, who else do we have?

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by: Venslor @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 17:43:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is something

that should kill a candidates chances anywhere, not just Cali.  I'll speak for myself in saying that is a horrible policy to try to enact and anyone suggesting it should be left off the political stage.

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by: Andrew @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 18:03:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, to be fair, it's pretty clear she misspoke.

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by: Kanamit @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 18:03:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No, it isn't legal

But it can be quite easy to pull off given you don't need any sort of identification to vote in many places.  

I was actually surprised she still managed to only lose by about 5 points despite that mistake is judgment.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 18:05:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

When did Bilbray's staff get on this thread...

How about when someone misspeaks and then clarifies their position, we believe them and then hold them to that clarified position.  Fear mongering about letting illegal immigrants vote is unhealthy and counterproductive, which is why every other member of Bilbray's so called "Immigration Reform Caucus" has gotten bounced out of Congress, because they drum up fear to get elected and then can't back it up with policy.  It's Bilbray's time now.

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by: jasone83 @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 22:15:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

oh please

I worked going door to door last election cycle working for Debbie Cook trying to unseat Dana Rohrabacher. I am more than willing to work for a good and quality candidate. From a Californian on a California election, and in the area CA-50, she's toast.

And as you said

How about when someone misspeaks and then clarifies their position, we believe them and then hold them to that clarified position

So, I'm sure you gave Allen the benefit of the doubt with Macaca, Trent Lott the benefit with his Strom Thurmond comments, etc, etc... If you want to give benefit of the doubts to the Democrats, you'd better be willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Republicans too.

Whether or not she meant what she said, doesn't matter, not in politics, and especially with something as hot button as that.  

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by: Venslor @ Wed Apr 15, 2009 at 01:29:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sheesh

That was never my intention.  I realize Busby committed a serious misspeak.  It was pretty obvious she didn't mean it how it sounded.  But the fact is she committed a major gaffe and didn't work very hard to correct her statement.  She still kept the race close but got destroyed in the November 2006 race against Bilbray.  We can definately do better than Busby again.  Best case scenario I see for Busby is a 5-10 point loss.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Apr 15, 2009 at 02:34:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was replying to Venslor

first off.  His comment was just a bit more inflammatory.

Second, off your point, I don't know why everyone assumes this district looks like it did in 2006.  The registration gap has closed (by half), democrats are better organized, the incumbent hasn't given anyone a reason to support him...

This is the kind of district we should hope for.  At least Busby has the fundraising and organizing experience necessary to deliver on election day.

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by: jasone83 @ Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 18:53:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I remember it very clearly and what

happened is that she misspoke and misunderstood some of question on camera and Bilbary grabbed and managed to use to whip up the right wingers that weren't gonna come vote for him and hurt some of the people supporting Busby. Besides the point. It is only the indicator of a greater point; she was not a very good campaigner or politician.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 18:41:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly.

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by: Kanamit @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 19:41:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

i was just commenting on another thread about madrid's last mispeak

and how it torpedoed her chances in NM-1.  that's how congressinoal races go.  you work hard.  speak every day, shake thousands of hands, answer questionnaires.  carefully hone your positions and newspapers and tv barely cover it.  then one wrong answer at a critical time and that's the end, no matter what you did before.  and ti's true for republicans as well.

but are there any good state reps, senators, county commissioners in the area (or nearby so they could be redistricted in)?

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by: st paul sage @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 19:25:04 PM UTC

Yes, it is true for Republicans.

See Allen, George

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 19:33:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That wasn't a misspeak

Allen knew exactly what he said when he said it.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 20:00:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How savvy of a politician was Allen apart from that remark?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 21:13:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In all honesty

I always thought he was quite saavy.  It really shocked me when he said what he did.  If I had to rank the 2006 Senate candidates a year in advance by who was most likely to make a monumental gaffe I probably would not have put Allen in the top 10.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 21:19:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In some ways

A shame it meant he couldn't be the GOP nominee last year. Obama beating him would have been especially delicious for obvious reasons.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Apr 15, 2009 at 15:29:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]