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SSP Daily Digest: 4/9

by: Crisitunity

Thu Apr 09, 2009 at 1:52 PM EDT


NJ-Gov: The latest poll of the New Jersey governor's race shows that things aren't getting any worse for Jon Corzine, but he is settling into a deep rut. Fairleigh Dickinson finds that he loses 42-33 to Chris Christie, the same 9-pt margin as their previous poll one month ago (41-32). Corzine's approval rating is 40/49, and he beats even nuttier GOPer Steve Lonegan by only 37-36. There is some good news, though: he'd still win in a Democratic primary, if for some reason senate president Richard Codey or Newark mayor Corey Booker challenged him.

Could An incumbent Democratic governor of New Jersey come back after trailing by double digits in the polls for most of the campaign? It happened once before, when Gov. Brendan Byrne beat Republican Raymond Bateman, despite being down as much as twelve points in September of 1977. "Hopeful" at Blue Jersey does some excellent digging through the archives to tell Byrne's story. (D)

VA-Gov: National politics just injected itself into the Virginia governor's race in a big way, as the GOP-held House of Delegates rejected $125 million in federal stimulus funds that would have extended unemployment benefits. Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell supported his party's callous move.

AK-Sen: Ted Stevens just filed his exploratory paperwork to get his old job back, by running for senator in 2014 (when he'll be 91). Don't actually expect to see Ted 2.0, though; his spokesman says it's just a receptacle to receive donations that came in after the November election.

FL-Sen, NH-Sen: In other unlikely comeback news, though, this one appears to be for real: Bob Smith, the former senator from New Hampshire, has filed the paperwork to run for Senate again... in Florida, where he now lives. This seems odd, since there are political titans jostling for the Florida nomination while the New Hampshire nomination still seems to be pretty much free for the asking. (As an indication of how far down the totem pole the NH GOP is looking, Ovide Lamontagne, last seen losing the 1996 gubernatorial race, is now eyeing NH-Sen.)

AR-Sen: Mediocre polling and pressure on EFCA seem to have gotten Blanche Lincoln worried, but she may be able to breathe a little easier after her first quarter fundraising haul: $1.7 million, with $1 million of that coming at a campaign kickoff event headlined by Joe Biden.

MI-Gov: Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson has announced that he won't seek the GOP nomination for the governor's race next year. Patterson narrowly led the primary field in a recent poll, so that leaves a wide-open field with a possible advantage to 2nd-place finisher Rep. Pete Hoekstra.

TN-Gov: State senator Roy Herron entered the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, joining former state house majority leader Kim McMillan and Nashville businessman Ward Cammack. Mike McWherter, son of former governor Ned McWherter, also seems a likely candidate.

PA-06: We have at least a warm body lined up in PA-06: Doug Pike, who hasn't held elected office but wrote for the Philadelphia Inquirer for a number of years, was an aide to Paul Tsongas, and is the son of Rep. Otis Pike (of New York). A better-known candidate may still crop up, especially if Rep. Jim Gerlach follows through on his likely plans to bail on his increasingly-Democratic seat (Obama won 58-41) and run for Pennsylvania governor instead.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/9
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It would not shock me
if stimulus politics gave Democrats a Virginia trifecta.  

I belive the Senate is not up this year. (eom)


[ Parent ]
We already have it though
So that make the job all that much easier.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I realized that as soon as I hit post :)
But, how close are we to the House of Delegates?

[ Parent ]
I think it needs a swing of like 5 seats.
Which is a 5% of the House.

[ Parent ]
Currently
55-45 for the Republicans in the HOD, including two Independents who caucus with the Republicans, so we need a six seat gain. The good news is there haven't been any Democratic retirements in vulnerable districts this year. The bad news is it's really hard to make gains in the HOD, because it requires a ridiculous amount of fundraising for a part-time legislative job. There are a lot of seats that end up uncontested every cycle (I believe the Republicans challenged 5 or 6 Democrats out of 40 in 2007).

[ Parent ]
I doubt it.
I think we'll lose the governorship at the rate things are going.

[ Parent ]
That would be a shame
But I don't discount the value of a contested primary on the Democratic side. Address the weaknesses now, instead of in the fall.

[ Parent ]
Yep.
Also there's value in having three candidates.  If, say, Moran and T-Mac go nuclear on each other, Deeds might come out unscathed.

[ Parent ]
Speaking of addressing the weaknesses now....
anyone else catch these Tweets from NLS?

"I got pornographic pictures sent to me of 2 staffers on a statewide VA race from a porn film- having a dilemna on whether to publish or not."

http://twitter.com/notlarrysab...

"[...] I also think the Republicans will use this in the fall if I don't get it out now."

http://twitter.com/notlarrysab...

(at first I misread it as two CANDIDATES in a porn film and I had really scary thoughts. I won't share them.)


[ Parent ]
What about a statewide trifecta?
I realize you were refering to the governorship, state senate, and state house, but why not go for a sweep of the statewide races (Gov, Lt Gov, AG) too?

[ Parent ]
Good news about Patterson
he was the Republican I was really afraid of.  One less challenger to Hoekstra.

16, Male, MI-01

NJ
As an NJ resident I'd gladly vote for either Codey or Booker over Corzine.  I'd vote for most Democrats over Corzine: Rush Holt, Bill Pascrell, John Adler, Steve Rothman, Donald Payne.  I don't know enough about Albio Sires and I certainly would not vote for Rob Andrews over any Democrat.  Hey, I'd vote for Leonard Lance ahead of Andrews (but not Chris Christie).

Corzine needs to open up his wallet now and make this about Christie (defining the bum in the process) and not about the economy or about the autocratic way he tries to govern the state.  He also needs to spend a bunch on newspaper ads.  The papers love Christie and hate Corzine.  Advertising cash would change that.

Time's a wasting, Jon.


[ Parent ]
For comparison
Bloomie is already on TV in NYC.

[ Parent ]
Irony
If Christie gets elected Gov. itd be because of Corzine's handling of the economy. But the ironic thing is...Christie has like no economic experience. Besides that little local office he held.  

[ Parent ]
Whereas
Corzine was a former head of Goldman freakin Sachs

[ Parent ]
Please "Mittens"
Say something that will make some activists think you're thinking about it. That would freeze some activists for months.

[ Parent ]
Now that raises
an interesting trivia question... has anyone ever been successfully elected governor of more than one state (and not just run in more than one state)? (Not at once, obviously.) I can't think of anyone, at least off the top of my head.

In fact, let me throw the field open, to include anyone who might have been, say, governor in one state and a representative or a mayor in some other state.


[ Parent ]
sam houston
was governor of tennessee and texas

[ Parent ]
aomeone did get elected mayor of two neighboring cities
herb bergson, mayor of superior, wisconsin for 2 terms, then crossed the bong bridge and became mayor of duluth, mn.  

not quite the same but still in the same ballpark.


[ Parent ]
It's official
Bob Smith has "Gravel Syndrome."  A Presidential run will be forthcoming.

Hey, he's already run for President once.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I want to see more campaign ads of this form:
* candidate stares at camera for 10 seconds
* candidate walks away from camera and throws nearby rock into nearby pond
* candidate walks further away from camera
* "I'm [candidate name] and I approve this message."

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
POWER TO THE PEOPLE
GIVE PEACE A CHANCE

[ Parent ]
VA-Gov
Kos/R2k poll has Moran leading primary and the most competitive with McDonnell.

http://www.dailykos.com/statep...


Empty HQ McAuliffe has peaked?
Oh, Happy Day!!!

[ Parent ]
Forget the term liberal
The word socialism is becoming more popular.  The number of people who think capitalism is the best system is barely half now.  Great news.  Hopefully that number falls well under 50% by the end of Obama's first term.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Which is a better system - capitalism or socialism?

Capitalism
53%
Socialism
20%
Not sure
27%


 

I think socialism has now replaced liberal as the attack phrase of the right.
The L word just doens't pack the punch it used to. That, in itself, is evidence of the center tilting left.

[ Parent ]
But "socialist" isn't working either
This poll means that no less than 47% of the U.S. population is at least open to the idea that socialism is better than capitalism.  The ongoing collapse of the markets is no doubt fueling this belief.  Hopefully this trend continues, as I'm confident it will.  

[ Parent ]
Many house race ratings changes by Charlie Cook
Interesting that he moved all three Dem-held house seats from safe D to likely D.  He must be under the false impressive that the court decision will adversely effect Democrats in Iowa.

http://cookpolitical.com/ratin...

VIRGINIA | District 10: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/09/09)
PENNSYLVANIA | District 18: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/09/09)
OREGON | District 4: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/09/09)
OHIO | District 12: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/09/09)
OHIO | District 1: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (4/09/09)
NEW YORK | District 13: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/09/09)
LOUISIANA | District 6: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/09/09)
LOUISIANA | District 3: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/09/09)
IOWA | District 3: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/09/09)
IOWA | District 2: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/09/09)
IOWA | District 1: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/09/09)
HAWAII | District 1: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/09/09)
GEORGIA | District 12: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/09/09)
FLORIDA | District 10: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/09/09)
DELAWARE | District AL: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/09/09)
CONNECTICUT | District 4: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/09/09)
COLORADO | District 3: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/09/09)
NEW HAMPSHIRE | District 1: Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat (4/09/09)
MARYLAND | District 1: Lean Democrat to Toss Up (4/09/09)
MAINE | District 1: Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat (4/09/09)
LOUISIANA | District 2: Likely Democrat to Toss Up (4/09/09)
FLORIDA | District 12: Solid Republican to Likely Republican (4/09/09)
CALIFORNIA | District 50: Lean Republican to Likely Republican (4/09/09)
CALIFORNIA | District 11: Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat (4/09/09)
ALASKA | District AL: Lean Republican to Likely Republican (4/09/09)


There were even more changes
Too many to list.  He moved Cao from Likely D to Tossup.  What a joke that move is.  More like Safe D.

[ Parent ]
Most of these seem to be competitiveness upgrades
So they're probaby cautionary.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
LA-02 from likely D to tossup?
WTF????

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Must be
It must be Cao's anti-stimulus, anti-Obama budget that has endeared him to the mostly poor black residents of LA-02.  They just love their new rep.

[ Parent ]
They're split about the budget
In that they're enjoying banana splits celebrating Cao's positions.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Cao
If Cao were a representative of a heavily left district in Europe then being against a stimulus would be a good thing (as, ironically, the European left hates the iea of a stimulus but the American left loves it). But...this is America and issues are looked at differently here.

[ Parent ]
And
supporting universal health care is "conservative" in Europe. European conservatives see American conservatives that oppose universal health care as "liberal".

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I like Rothenbergs ratings better
some of these are just foolish.  LA-2 as Tossup? No way.  And he must be anticipating some retirements, because there's no way I would call LA-3, VA-10, FL-10, OH-12, or PA-18 competitive with the incumbents running.  But he doesn't have the usual * indicating potential retirements near their names.

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
Cook is losing it
his ratings suck.  Rothenberg (despite his idiotic commentary) usually has more realistic ratings.

[ Parent ]
Cook's ratings always suck early in the cycle
Check out his ratings From August 2007 - a little over 1 year before the 2008 elections.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/s...

Republican seats:
Tossups - 1
Leans R - 16
Likely R - 18

Democratic seats:
Tossups - 0
Leans D - 13
Likely D - 17

Now that would lead you to believe that 2008 was going to be  wash with neither party gaining much.  But of course Dems gained a net 24 house seats in 2008, counting the 3 special election takeovers.

His Senate picture was similarly wrong early in the 2008 cycle.


[ Parent ]
Um, OK Charlie; whatever you say. . .


[ Parent ]
Yeah most of these make no sense
BUT I'm more interested in the change to the CPVI ratings.
Using, old-style CPVI updated with 2008 election numbers, his Likely Democratic List would start
AZ-01 Ann Kirkpatrick R+8
AZ-05 Harry Mitchell R+7
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords R+7
CA-11 Jerry McNearney R+4
CO-03 John Salazar R+7
Etc.

But Cook lists:
AZ-01 Ann Kirkpatrick R+6
AZ-05 Harry Mitchell R+5
AZ-08 Gabrielle Giffords R+4
CA-11 Jerry McNearney R+1
CO-03 John Salazar R+5

Did Cook switch over to SPVI?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
He claims to be using the new CPVI numbers


[ Parent ]
great news even Cherry
could beat a nut like Hoekstra if he's weakened bya tough primary. I just hope he picks a strong LG from the burbs, Macomb or Oakland, to balance out Republican margins. He really needs to work to inspire confidence in his ability to jump start the economy. Hopefully it will start improving noticeably by election time.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Yeah, I'm hoping for St. Sen Mickey Switalski
I'm sure Cherry could convince him to drop his quixotic bid to take on Sander Levin by giving him a spot on his ticket.  He's from the northern Macomb suburbs, (Sterling Heights, Clinton) His district itself leans Democrat but he could help Cherry in the rest of Macomb and Oakland Counties. And labor is a major issue in that district so he could also help Cherry in the more rural, working class areas of the state.

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
What?
Why not Geoffrey Fieger?  He came so damn close in the 1998 race he might deserve another crack.

[ Parent ]
Thanks, but no thanks.


16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
Obviously
I was kidding.

[ Parent ]
I got it
That was meant to be said with a Sara Palin accent.

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
If Corzine's doing that badly...
then why is it necessarily good news that he'd win a primary?

Because
He still has a gazillion dollars.  And he's not afraid to spend it destroying any republican opponent.

[ Parent ]
It's not
Should be the #1 primary target.

[ Parent ]
Ovide Lamontagne?
Sounds like a rich Cajun landowner.  

Did he run the same year
the guy with the god awful long name ran for Senate against Gregg up there?

Condondodementrakeny or whatever it was.

I just remember that was one of the first Senate races they called, and some woman on CNN could not prounce his name, completely butchered it and I thought "Well, no wonder he lost"

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
MI Gov.
And besides a masochist who in their right mind would wanna be governor of Michigan right now?  

Somebody's gotta do it
It's our job to make sure that its the right person.

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
US-Pres
And besides a masochist who in their right mind would wanna be president of the United States right now?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Update on SC Governor's race
Greenville businessman Joe Erwin has announced he is unlikely to run for Governor or any office next year. He left a little room to change his mind, but I would count him out.

State Senator Vincent Shaheen has raised about 280,000 in seven weeks, which is quite respectable under the circumstances.  

Incumbent term-limted Mark Sanford is growing increasingly unpopular over his refusal to take 700mm in federal stimulus funds for education.

A crowded GOP field includes the incumbent Lt. Gov Andre Bauer, AG Henry McMaster and 3rd district congressman Gresham Barrett.

This one could get interesting down the stretch, and remember SC might gain a seat in the next reapportionment.  



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