PPP (4/2-3, registered voters):
Ben Chandler (D): 47
Jim Bunning (R-inc): 33Jack Conway (D): 42
Jim Bunning (R-inc): 33Crit Luallen (D): 42
Jim Bunning (R-inc): 34Dan Mongiardo (D): 43
Jim Bunning (R-inc): 36Ben Chandler (D): 40
Trey Grayson (R): 34Jack Conway (D): 37
Trey Grayson (R): 33Crit Luallen (D): 34
Trey Grayson (R): 36Dan Mongiardo (D): 36
Trey Grayson (R): 40
(MoE: ±4%)
We’ve had lots of clues that Jim Bunning is in trouble: a Research 2000 poll from January showing him in dead heats with Democratic challengers, reports of “lousy” fundraising, and not-so-private efforts by Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn to give him his gold watch and usher him out the back door. But now we have a poll, via PPP, that shows just how dire things have gotten for him. Bunning’s job performance approval is 28/54 (notably worse than anything Chris Dodd has put up lately), and only 42% of Republicans approve.
Bunning loses by fairly wide margins to all four of his potential Democratic challengers, most significantly losing by 14 to Rep. Ben Chandler. (Chandler, AG Jack Conway, and Auditor Crit Luallen all seem to be in a semi-friendly standoff over which one gets to run; maybe these numbers will prompt Chandler to jump.) Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo is the only candidate in the race; although he would seem to have a name rec advantage from having run against Bunning in 2004, Mongiardo actually fares the least well, winning by ‘only’ 7. Mongiardo is the best-known of the Big 4, but has the highest negatives too, with 41/34 favorability. (The Lexington-based Chandler is at 38/28.)
The best favorability numbers in the poll, however, belong to Republican SoS Trey Grayson, who’s at 46/19. In head-to-heads Grayson also fares much better than Bunning, losing to Chandler by 6, to Conway by 4, and narrowly beating Luallen and Mongiardo. This points to one potential danger for Democrats: that Bunning is hitting his nadir too early, giving him plenty of time to shuffle off into retirement and allow the more likable Grayson time to ramp up for a competitive run. Of course, that scenario presupposes a rational Bunning interested in doing what’s best for the whole state GOP, not just for Jim Bunning.
PPP also polls state senate president David Williams as a potential GOP candidate (Williams met with Cornyn regarding a possible run). However, Williams fares even worse than Bunning in head-to-heads, losing 45-30 to Chandler, 43-29 to Conway, 41-31 to Luallen, and 43-32 to Mongiardo. I initially assumed the problem with Williams is he’s a little-known state legislator, but he seems as well-known as the Democratic candidates; he just has lousy favorability ratings (28/41). So for the GOP, it’s starting to look like Grayson or bust.
I’ve never seen such horrible numbers for an incumbent.
If Bunning is the nominee, this is a sure thing unless something radically changes in the next year and a half.
Just to as a catch up, Mongiardo and Conway are the only two announced to be running correct? It’s too bad Chandler isnt going to be the nominee, normally in these polls doing better than your primary opponents is by 1-3%, he’s doing solidly better than all of them.
Conway and Luallen have significantly better favorables than Chandler, but are doing significantly worse. Any reason why? Gravitas?
And has anyone polled Chandler’s seat if he runs for Senate?
Strong candidate, doesn’t give up a tough seat in Congress.
It might be a great idea for Chandler to stay out of this for a bit. It might give Bunning a good reason to back out of the race, more so than just Mongiardo. Bunning, the rational one that he is… Might think, hey, I beat him once, I can do it again. Hopefully we can get a multi-Republican primary in which Bunning survives, and the Chandler might be able to pop in.
Granted, wouldn’t Chandler running almost guarantee a lose of that Kentucky House seat? Its fairly Conservative.
Surprised Conway outperforms him by a significant amount. I don’t think Chandler will run this time (maybe against McConnell in 2014? Who knows?)
Yeah these are Santorum numbers. Either way, Bunning is out of the Senate after 2010.
Unfortunately, I think this is all a lot of meaningless mellodrama. By this time next year, I fully expect that Bunning will have dropped out of the race. I hope that I am wrong, though.
McConnell needs to threaten him with not seating him in the GOP caucus come Jan. 2011 should Bunning somehow pull off an upset. Thatd leave Bunning with no committee posts and no real power. But, maybe itd backfire and just make the old man even angrier and more defiant. Sometimes that can happen. And Im guessing McConnell knows him better than anyone else.