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SSP Daily Digest: 4/3

by: Crisitunity

Fri Apr 03, 2009 at 1:57 PM EDT


• NY-20: Jim Tedisco has moved into a 12-vote lead as the counties continue to engage in recanvassing of the lever-pull machines, which will continue next week. (Paper ballots are impounded at least until the scheduled court hearing on the 6th.)

In other news, Tedisco stepped down from his role as minority leader in the Assembly today. (That shouldn't necessarily be seen as a sign of confidence in winning the election; he was facing a no-confidence vote from his caucus.)

• SD-Sen: The 2010 South Dakota senate race isn't looking very fruitful for Dems, even in the unlikely event we run a top-tier recruit. (If Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin goes for a promotion, at this point she seems more interested in governor.) R2K polls SD for Daily Kos and finds that John Thune runs ahead of both ex-Sen. Tom Daschle, 53-40, and Herseth Sandlin, 51-39. All three have pretty good favorables; South Dakotans just seem to prefer to keep Thune where he is.

• CT-Sen: In the wake of yesterday's terrible poll, a primary challenger to Chris Dodd has already popped out of the woodwork. Roger Pearson, the former First Selectman of Greenwich, has formed an exploratory committee. He seems little-known outside (or even inside) of Greenwich, but we'll have to see if he can catch an anti-Dodd wave.

• AL-Gov: Looks like the Democratic primary for Governor is about to get pretty crowded; state Sen. Roger Bedford is now openly mulling a run, and the inside chatter appears that the controversial but powerful northern Alabama legislator is pretty serious about a bid.

Meanwhile, ArturD2 is kvetching like a five year-old over the probable entry of Ag Comm'r Ron Sparks into the race. (J)

• NH-Sen: Despite entreaties from the NRSC, Judd Gregg says he won't seek re-election. Apparently, he wants to devote all his time to supporting the president's agenda in the Senate. (D)

• CO-Sen: Appointed senator Michael Bennet pulled in startling fundraising numbers for the 1st quarter, raising $1.37 million. Bennet is facing a paltry field of GOPers so far (with ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez their best bet), so this may actually serve more to cause former state house speaker Andrew Romanoff to think twice about a primary challenge.

• AK-Sen: With charges dropped against Ted Stevens, Alaska GOP chair Rudy Reudrich wants a do-over on last year's election. Gov. Sarah Palin also endorsed the idea, despite her taking an anti-Stevens stand in the closing weeks of the election. However, Rep. Don Young doesn't support the idea, saying Mark Begich "will be in the Senate and will do a good job." (In fact, Young has a totally different idea: Stevens should run for governor in 2010 against Palin.) Stevens' friends in the Senate also seemed resigned to the election being over.

• RI-Gov: Ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee seemed to back off a bit from previous statements that he will be running for governor as an independent, saying that he will decide by May whether or not to run, once his current position (teaching at Brown) ends.

• Votes: Yesterday was the big vote in the House on the Obama budget. After a lot of public vacillation, even Joe Cao voted no, joining every other Republican. 20 Democrats voted no; it's a who's who of who's vulnerable (with a few entrenched Blue Dogs joining them): Barrow, Boren, Bright, Childers, Donnelly, Foster, Griffith, Kosmas, Kratovil, Kucinich, Markey, Marshall, Matheson, McIntyre, Minnick, Mitchell, Nye, Perriello, Taylor, and Teague. The only 'nay' votes in districts won by Obama were John Barrow (who's actually been fairly cooperative so far this session), Bill Foster (usually a good guy, but a deficit hawk), and Dennis Kucinich (who assumedly voted against the budget from the left for not containing enough magic ponies). In the Senate, a few hours later, Evan Bayh and Ben Nelson were the only defections.

• NASA: Here's a guy we're glad to see land on his feet: Nick Lampson, who used to represent NASA's Houston-area facilities in TX-22, is now on the short list of potential NASA Administrators. Even Pete Olson, the guy who defeated Lampson, is advocating for Lampson.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/3
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SSP Daily Digest: 4/3 | 80 comments
Corker
Anyone see the explanation for Corker supporting the budget?
Huh?
Looks like Sen. Corker voted against the budget.
[ Parent ]
Boyd voted for the bill?
Glass of water for Mr. Grainger!
Someone pointed out to me
That Boyd is on the Budget Cmte - very hard for him to vote against this.
[ Parent ]
Putting up my David Paterson dart board
Just in case.
Snark against Kucinich uncalled for
Unlike many in congress, he actually votes his principles.
Yeah, he had a very principled stance
Against abortion right until 2004, when he made a 180-degree principled reversal for his principled run for President.
[ Parent ]
Check mate

[ Parent ]
David, I dont think it was the presidency
I actually think he met Elizabeth and, through some deep thought, looked at his childhood religious convictions and decided it wasn't what he wanted to be.  I'm quite sure Elizabeth pushed him, but I think, from talking to him personally, the conversion was entirely genuine.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Didn't he meet her on the campaign trail?
In other words after he already started running?
[ Parent ]
Negative, Ghostrider
Kucinich did his about-face on abortion in 2003; he met Elizabeth in 2005.
[ Parent ]
Ugh
You're right, though he'd made statements about changing his views before this.  I knew they married after 2005, but didn't realize the romance was so whirlwind.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
They got married
Three months after they first met.
[ Parent ]
I can see that argument
But the man could use a touch of realism once in a while.
[ Parent ]
Probably
But we could use a touch of Dennis once-in-a-while too.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Speaking only for myself
I would prefer not to be touched by Dennis.
[ Parent ]
but...but...
You might find some cookies after he touches you! lol Keebler cookies... oh,and the budget not containing enough magic ponies... LOL!!!!! i almost needed a change of pants I laughed so hard!
[ Parent ]
Mind out of the gutter, James!
Now, really...

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
There are only two directions to go:
North, South, and Dennis.

Yeah Homestar Runner.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Not strictly SSP news
but did you guys hear that apparently Blago tried to extort Rahm as a congressman?

Extort Rahmbo?  Doesn't he know who he's messing with?

btw, in case you haven't read it everywhere else yet, the Iowa Supreme Court dropped a unanimous ruling in favor of same-sex marriage.  Unlike California, the proposition process is much more difficult and must be passed in two consecutive sessions by the legislature (in which key members are saying it won't happen).  So this one looks safe for a long while.  Imagine that...Massachusetts, Connecticut, Iowa, and probably Vermont soon.  I'm hearing New Hampshire isn't that far back either.

Quite surprised
And I wonder what this will mean for the IA GOP caucuses in 2012 and the general election there. Not to mention the Gov. race and state legislature races. Itll be an interesting 4 years in Iowa.
[ Parent ]
Whoa! Unanimous ruling: Iowa marriage no longer limited to one man, one woman
What a pleasant surprise this is.

http://www.desmoinesregister.c...

Unanimous ruling: Iowa marriage no longer limited to one man, one woman

The Iowa Supreme Court this morning upheld a Polk County judge's 2007 ruling that marriage should not be limited to one man and one woman.

The ruling, viewed nationally and at home as a victory for the gay rights movement and a setback for social conservatives, means Iowa's 5,800 gay couples can legally marry in Iowa beginning April 24.

There are no residency rules for marriage in Iowa, so the rule would apply to any couple who wanted to travel to Iowa.


Maybe the Supreme Courts
of NY, NJ, and WA should reconsider their decisions now.
[ Parent ]
California's SC is gonna be interesting too.
They have until June 1, I think, to issue a decision on the Prop 8 hearing from last month. I'm gonna watch to see if Iowa's SC decision will have any effect in CA. And the grassroots movement against H8 is going strong also.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that the Court really will reject
Prop 8.  But regardless of whether or not they do, this needs to go back on the ballot in Cali ASAP.  I think a referendum to repeal Prop 8 should pass in 2010.  I hope the pro-equality side this time does some serious outreach to blacks and Hispanics this time around.
[ Parent ]
Lampson-Olsen
I guess I don't find it too surprising that Olsen supports Lampson for NASA.  Olsen is a lightweight and needs NASA funding for his district or else his constituents might get mad at him.  So, of course, he'd be happy to have Lampson work hard and use his influence to help his district.  Somehow that doesn't seem right and part of me would be happy to see the residents of TX-22 suffer for their decision, even though I know it's not right.
Well then
I hope you suffer too for whatever you did in your past. :-P

I do not desire to suffer even though my ballot went to Lampson.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
That's not fair!
C'mon, don't hate on me.  I thought I was clear that I don't really want bad things to happen to NASA or the people of the district.  I'm not that petty (although not so noble that the thought didn't cross my mind).  
[ Parent ]
Yeah, NASA is huge here
So many people here work for NASA. So its definitely an industry that needs to 'be taken care of'.
[ Parent ]
This is why elections matter
If McCain was President he might be appointing some recently defeated republican from a NASA based district to head that department... cough Tom Feeney.. cough...
[ Parent ]
I'd say military
Cause EPIC LAY-ZERS IN SPACE!

However, McCain did have the most developed plan for NASA early in the campaign. Not because Obama did not care, but rather because he came from a state that has had zero interaction with NASA and space research on a consistent basis and he was not around for years in the legislature to see the wisdom of having a well funded science vessel in orbit (ISS). Obama came around from a position of cutting NASA's budget and redefinition of it's mission to be purely Earth-centric, but McCain started off better

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
TX-22
Even though NASA is a huge employer here (and the space industry in general), i think we can definitely survive even if the space inudstry's budget takes a hit. The oil and chemical industries are also a huge force in this district. So many of our residents are employed by them. Also, many of our residents will commute into downtown Houston (including the Medical Center) to go to work there.  
[ Parent ]
Is there presidence for anything like they are suggesting for AK-Sen?
It seems patently ridiculous to me and I think I'd say the same if the boot was on the other foot.  
Like
We want a revote of elections lost in 2002 and 2004 over 9/11 and Iraq. I'm sure Republicans could make similar arguments about 2006 since the surge actually turned out ok.  
[ Parent ]
Rerun Nixon - McGovern
Nixon was a crook.  Do over.
[ Parent ]
Redo the recall!
Arnold left us an even bigger budget mess!

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Rerun the 1876 election
Maybe Hayes can win convincingly and we could have avoided some of the racial scars our country bears.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Let's rerun 2000
Anyone would still like to have George W Bush as our President for the last 8 years?
[ Parent ]
The ones that do are either evil or need psychiatric attention, or both.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Yes
If I cold travel back to 2000 I'd change my vote to Bush.  Without him fucking things up so bad we wouldn't have congressional majorities and the most progressive President in history.  Bush also left us many tools in place to use against his own party's destruction in a worst case scenario.  I'm happy as hell Bush won in 2000.
[ Parent ]
Also
Had Gore served two terms we might have had Lieberman as our 2008 nominee.  
[ Parent ]
haha
In fairness, we never would have gone to war in Iraq, so Libermans' douchebaginess probably would never have been an issue. lol
[ Parent ]
No we would not
Hillary Clinton would have primaried Lieberman and ran as the liberal candidate in the primary.

Obama probably would be still a state senator in Illinois whom few have heard of.  Without the Presidential race, Carol Moseley Braun would have certainly run for her old Senate seat in 2004.

[ Parent ]
I highly doubt
Mosley-Braun would've run again and even if she did I doubt she'd have won the Dem primary
[ Parent ]
She would have run again
and likely lost to Dan Hynes in the primary.  But the main consequence of Moseley-Braun running again is that it pushes Obama out of the race (as he states in his book).
[ Parent ]
I very strongly disagree with this
If Gore had been elected, he would have presided over 9/11, and would have used that to make a national security argument for a drastic program to get off fossil fuels and start a crash program to move to renewable fuels.

Not to mention, no war in Iraq, a real clean up of Islamic terrorists, and probably no bogus housing bubble and financial crisis.  Instead of the housing bubble, we would have had a real nice booming green economy.


[ Parent ]
On the other hand I would
in retrospect have voted for Bush over Kerry.  Without that second Bush term, we would not have a majority today.
[ Parent ]
Kerry
In all fairness while Kerry would have been an improvement over Bush, had he won in 04, i think he would have been hapless as well. I think the economy would still be in bad shape and Iraq wouldnt be much better than under Bush.
[ Parent ]
Roger Bedford should have run in AL-5 last year
we might have actually gotten a Democrat if either he or Susan Parker ran for that seat instead of the down the line Repub-voting Parker Griffith.
its a very tough district for Democrats
though and only getting tougher. My main problem with Griffith is that he's too old to be looking at a long term representative for this district.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Susan Parker is a real Democrat
Bedford is mildly conservative on social issues, but with the party on economic issues.  

Parker Griffith is barely one step better than Bobby Bright.  Electing the Brights and the Griffiths are useless to our majority.  They never vote with us on basically anything.

At this point, I'd take my shot in states like Alabama with populist Dems like Josh Segall, Ron Sparks, Parker, or Bedford.  If we lose, we get a Repub.  Fine, I can live with that, rather than losing either way in a race between a wingnut Repub and a useless "Democrat" like Bright.  

[ Parent ]
I really don't find those Democrats
"useless" and I assure you they are more worth our while than the kinds of Republicans those seats would normally elect. Think people like Lynn Westmoreland. Plus the moral significance of being to saythat we, as a party, reach in every corner of the country and in the most conservative areas, and to be able to say that we have and we support and we tolerate than degree of discension and diversity of ideas makes us better than the Republicans who can absolutely no such things, as much as the media fails to point this fact out.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I disagree
it costs money to defend these people in terrible districts, they get committee seats where they vote against our agenda, possibly imperiling them from getting out of committee, and if they get significant seniority, then it is possible that they may get chairmanships where they can actively advocate against the party's agenda like many of the Southern Dixiecrats did to block civil rights and other progressive agenda.

I'd rather take my chance getting someone reasonable like Sparks or Bedford than elect a Parker Griffith or Bobby Bright.

[ Parent ]
Rebuttal
It does cost money to defend these districts, but it also costs Republicans money to attempt to win them.  The amount we spend is irrelevant--it's any difference between what we spend and what Rs spend that matters.  These guys are on the front lines against Republican attempts to take a majority.  While the Republicans are busy trying to off them, our 40 or so freshman and sophomore Reps in swing and R leaning districts are busy entrenching themselves.

With respect to committees, if these guys weren't in Congress we wouldn't have as large of majorities on committees as we do.  Much better to have a conservative Dem occasionally vote against us in committee than to have a conservative Republican always vote against us.  Not only that, but we have larger majorities on committees where they aren't even part of the committee.

[ Parent ]
We can't be sure
There's been plenty of cases where someone we thought would be good went to Congress and turned into a blue dog-type.

I'm not so sure if we elect Sparks to the Senate or AL-03 that he won't turn out like the other Southern Democrats.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
by the way the conversation is
still going on on the Thubert Baker thread, and I have posted one of my best rebuttals to you yet.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I read it and I disagree with it
and I will respond later.
[ Parent ]
fine by me
I rather enjoy arguing with you and constantly trying to flank your arguments, its good mental exercise and we seem to have the opposite view on most party issues anyway.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
They are far from useless
So long as both and any other continue to caucus with the Democratic party and cast their votes for Pelosi as Speaker of the House, they do more than enough for me. So long as there are those two extra vote that give Democrats the majority in the House, the vast majority of negative and ridiculous right-wing bullshit that would make all of our head implode, will never reach the floor. Beside, a Democrat that votes with us 25% of the time, is better than a Republican that votes with us 0% of the time, and I'll take what I can get in a an Alabama district like Brights!
[ Parent ]
Same here!
I may be a solid liberal, but I welcome the Bobby Brights in our big tent.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Bright's essentially a Republican opportunist,
if the house gets close he would probably switch parties.
[ Parent ]
uh, not really
you don't understand, the NRCC tried to recruit Bright, he could have run this year as a Republican and gotten a freeride, instead he choose to run asa Democrat in a heavily Republican district, even for Alabama. He knew his chances were assured as a Republican, and likely less than one third as a Democrat. He took those odds. Doesn't seem like an opportunist, and though Bright is the worst Democrat his partisan loyalty numbers are still like 40%.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Life in the majority is much better than life in the minority.
I just don't trust blue dogs who don't vote for even the most popular Democratic bills. I'm sure he's occasionally voted with us here and there, but I he votes against us every time it matters.
[ Parent ]
"Don't trust"
What is he going to do, steal the silverware?

He votes fine 40% of the time, which is almost exactly 40% more than a Republican from that district would.  Attacks on Bright are just tiresome.  He is drastically better than the alternative, and nobody expects him to toe the party line basically ever, so his 40% is nothing but gravy.

The more dispirited strong Republican candidates are about being in significant minority, the better the country is.  25 Blue Dogs add a very important element to the electoral map around the country.

[ Parent ]
No, I expect him to "steal" DCCC money
only to never vote with us when it actually counts and then switch parties of the Republicans ever come close in the house. Every other blue dogs votes with us on the major issues at least some of the time, and many of them come from more hostile districts. Why should we be spending money on someone who votes with us a minority of the time when we can spend money on, you know, actual Democrats who aren't just marginally better than the alternative who would have no influence anyways.

I find your handle ironic, given how hostile Paine would be to your "lesser of two evils" reasoning.

[ Parent ]
Money and Party Switching
Bright's not a net money drain as long as Republicans are spending money to beat him.  If his district were Republican, we wouldn't spend money on it but neither would they.

I also don't buy the theory he would switch parties if Ds lost the majority.  First, there's no evidence for it.  the fact that he took the much harder road to win election as a Democrat strongly suggests otherwise.  Second, if we ever lose the majority, it's likely that Bright will be one of the first seats we lost, so that he won't even be in the House to make the switch.

[ Parent ]
Fair enough.
But there are plenty of bluer districts that we could win if we spent money there rather than here. Even if the Republicans have to spend money as well against Bright, the money we spend is money we can't spend on helping underfunded challengers who benefit tremendously from money even if it is matched by Republican spending.

As for party switching, like I said, life in the majority is much better than life in the minority. And as DavidNYC notes, Bright would have faced a competitive primary as a Republican. It's true that we would probably lose Bright if we lost our majority, but then why invest in him when we can spend money in marginal districts that we can hold for decades with the benefits of incumbency?

[ Parent ]
Bright is worth
I put Bright in the same boat with Childers and Griffith.  The districts may be very red but I'll bet if we can get them elected one or two more elections they'll be so entrenched the DCCC may not have to drop another dime on them, much like Gene Taylor.  It's more than worth the money in the short-run if we can make that happen.
[ Parent ]
I agree with all the tactical points.
1. Demoralizes the Republicans regionally and nationally.

2. Foot-in-the-door, if played right, to make people more open to electing Democrats (especially in federal elections in the South) and to defeating the "librul Democrat" perception bullcrap.

3. Expanded majorities on committees.

4. Some votes against us is better than all votes against us.  Especially if we have votes to spare, to let them get entrenched (after which they might become more loyal).

5. Our big tent makes it harder for the Republicans to re-expand themselves.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
"and many of them come from more hostile districts"
What have you been smoking?  Literally NONE come from more hostile districts, except Minnick (who a fluke).

He should be quite literally be the most conservative Democrat in the House, and as that would be representing his constituency very well.

Nobody said anything about lesser of two evils, and that makes no sense at all in this context.

Politics is about aiming the country in a better direction, not having contempt for the people of Bright's district.  Moving them left is a gradual process, and telling them to screw off because they will do evil regardless of their choice is the path to nowhere.

Put another way, Evan Bayh gets shit around leftnut places, but there was probably no more warmly pleasing result on election night than Indiana going blue.  That state has moved dramatically left in the past decade, and the single person most respoensible for that is Evan Bayh.

[ Parent ]
No way would Bright have gotten a free ride
On the GOP ticket, and that's why he went with the Dems. Wingers like Love would definitely have run in a primary against him had he tried go as a Republican. Hell, when he ran for mayor he had guys like Ron Sparks campaigning for him - no way would the GOP have swallowed a guy like Bright without some kind of a fight.
[ Parent ]
NY-20
Murphy picking up 200 votes is a nice little bump.  Hopefully Tedisco doesn't recover from that.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Still Tedisco by 500?


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
huh?
where you'd get that?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
NY-20
That was my prediction the other day.  I think Tedisco is going to gain a big edge in absentees and recounts in his strongholds.

Hopefully I am wrong.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
i don't think so
only because the partisan gap doesn't seem to be as wide as the General and Murphy narrowly won the General to beging with. I'd like to see the county breakdowns of absentee ballots more than anything, becasue I think that would be the most important factor.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Michael Barone
Michael Barone published the county by country numbers for absentee ballots.  http://www.usnews.com/blogs/ba...

If you assume absentee ballots will generally match the general election votes for the same counties, then Murphy should pick up votes, especially since the partisan make-up of the absentee votes is slightly more favorable for us than the partisan make-up of the district as a whole (and presumably the voters in the general election).  But, a big issue is whether the military votes will skew heavily Republican.

[ Parent ]
Has anyone done a time-variance analysis?
I mean, try to estimate when the votes were cast, and then estimate their chance of being Murphy/Tedisco absentee votes?  Like, finding the difference between if 10% of the absentee votes were cast when Tedisco was leading by 12 in polling and if 30% were cast then?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
CT-Sen: Roger Pearson (D) information
Politics1 says he's an "attorney and tennis sports agent", but doesn't list his political experience.  Same person, I'd assume?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Breaking News from NY-20
According to www.thealbanyproject.com, Murphy has just picked up 33 votes to regain the lead by 15!  Delaware County (carried by Tedisco) completed counting their absentees, and Murphy picked up a net of 20.  Murphy also gained 13 in Dutchess County where they are still counting.
SSP Daily Digest: 4/3 | 80 comments

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