Thad McCotter

is acting idiotic. obama wins his district by 9 points and he barely wins against a token challenger, but he's up there every day with boehner and cantor and the other rethugs. man needs to wise up before 2010.

---

by: possumtracker1991 @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 22:54:28 PM UTC

I'm interested

in what the auto policy will do to Obama in Michigan...if anything. I've seen some people say Obama's popularity is on the verge of plummeting there because auto workers aren't happy with the White House, so that may explain McCotter's actions.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Thu Apr 02, 2009 at 00:44:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's amazing

to look at the lists from 2004 and realize that we still hold all of the top 10 Bush/D districts from that year; conversely, just one of the top ten Kerry/R districts is still held by a Republican.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

---

by: TDDVandy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 23:03:33 PM UTC

Two actually

DE-AL and IL-10, but still impressive.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

---

by: Marcus @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 23:09:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, right

I missed DE-AL.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

---

by: TDDVandy @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 23:12:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We haven't lost

any of those 41 Bush/D districts at all, actually. We didn't lose anything in 2006, and of the 5 districts we lost in 2008, 4 were ones we'd picked up in 2006 or special election, and the other one wasn't won by Bush or McCain (LA-02, naturally).

---

by: Crisitunity @ Wed Apr 01, 2009 at 23:27:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also except Boyda

all of our losses in 2006 were expected or had valid reasons.

Texas 22- if it wasn't for the write-in problem for the GOP in 2006, Lampson probably would never have won.

Florida 16- Mahoney in the scandal, and he was never supposed to be a Congressman anyway

Louisiana 6-Cazayoux got screwed by Jackson splitting the vote.

Louisiana 2- Bill Jefferson was scalp deep in scandal.

and I'd probably put Boyda in the "never would've held the seat anyway" category. What helped her in 2006, namely moderate Republican women who saw Ryun as a nut and voted Sebelius had a candidate of their own in 2008.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Thu Apr 02, 2009 at 00:49:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looks like a bumper crop of Obama-GOP districts in California.

We gotta put in a lot of effort in these districts to reap the benefits of big Dem gains in the House delegation like we did in 2000.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

---

by: californianintexas @ Thu Apr 02, 2009 at 03:59:31 AM UTC

California Is the Place We Want to Be!

California clearly offers the best hope of multiple pick ups.

Numbers of Obama/Republican Representative Districts by State:

CA 8
IL 4
MI 3
PA 2
NJ 2
VA 2
FL 2
WI 2
LA 1
DE 1
WA 1
IA 1
OH 1
MN 1
NY 1
NE 1

California has lots of spare D votes in safe districts, such that we could make these R districts much more vulnerable.

---

by: sicembears @ Thu Apr 02, 2009 at 16:09:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

California

Much of it may have been Obama coattails but hopefully the Governors race may turn into a similar blowout next year. And Boxer will also be on the ballot. No doubt Spitzer/Clinton, Casey/Rendell and Sebelius brought people in with them in 2006.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Apr 02, 2009 at 16:18:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Interesting stuff

Cao is clearly a special case.

But you might also want to look at when each rep was first elected, and how much they won by in 2008.

---

by: plf515 @ Thu Apr 02, 2009 at 11:18:23 AM UTC

I did that

in the "House Vulnerability Index," which is over in the tools in the right hand column (it factors 2008 House member margin and the district's old PVI). That was done long before we had the new district numbers, so I should revisit that post again at some point. Peter King (or his open seat) would show up as a lot less vulnerable, for instance, seeing how far down the ranks NY-03 fell. McCain won NY-03, so that means it's somewhere down around the #40 R-held district in terms of Democratic lean instead of the #7 district.

---

by: Crisitunity @ Thu Apr 02, 2009 at 16:48:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Don't see too many wins on the Obama side

Maybe McCotter if someone will stand up. On the plus side there is every chance several of the top echelons could be open next year (Castle, Kirk, Gerlach, Roskam, Biggert).

On the McCain side they are mainly entrenched incumbents. Chet Edwards is probably fine in a midterm and outside of a year-that-won't-be-mentioned-by-name type GOP landslide. Clear vulnerabilities are Bright, Minnick, Griffith and Kratovil together with any retirements that might open up otherwise safe seats.

I continue to believe the most likely midterm result is upper single digit Republican gains in the House and 2-4 minimum net Democratic gains in the Senate.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Apr 02, 2009 at 16:01:03 PM UTC

One of these

District is WI-01, my home district. In the 2010 cycle this is not a competitive seat but it could be in coming cycles for a number of reasons. For one the current Rep, Paul Ryan may run for Senate in 2012 in which case this is going to be home of a really hot race regardless of anything else. But what could also happen is redistricting as the district could lose some of Janesville and take back some of Milwaukee which would make it much more democratic.

---

by: safi @ Fri Apr 03, 2009 at 16:36:10 PM UTC