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AK-Gov: Will Palin Run Again?

by: DavidNYC

Mon Mar 30, 2009 at 9:00 AM EDT


Okay, folks, prediction time: Will Sarah Palin seek re-election as Alaska governor? If she did run for a second gubernatorial term, that would make it difficult if not impossible to run for president in 2012, for a variety of reasons: a) she'd be dogged by questions about her future daily; b) she wouldn't be able to spend much if any time preparing for the presidential run; c) she'd open herself up to a primary challenge; and d) even if she won, she'd have to turn around on election night and start running for president right away - creating yet another fertile avenue for attacks on her character.

Then again, Palin's political skills anywhere outside of an arena packed with rabid supporters & a teleprompter are weak, and her staff has no idea what it's doing. So I could see her thinking she could pull off both. If she has any sense, though, she'd wait until 2016 (she's certainly young enough) and use a second term in the statehouse to repair her image and build up the team necessary to fight Mitt Romney.

But anyhow, I don't went to delve too far into presidential politics on this site. Mostly I'm interested in the question I posed above. Please share your thoughts in comments & take the poll - it's below the fold.
DavidNYC :: AK-Gov: Will Palin Run Again?
Poll
Will Sarah Palin run for a second term as Alaska governor in 2012?
Yes
No

Results

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AK-Gov: Will Palin Run Again? | 49 comments
I think...
She runs again. She's clearly ambitious, so I doubt she's worried about being Governor and running for President. While I agree that waiting until 2016 might be in her best interests, I doubt she will. I mean, logically, Obama was young enough to wait out two HRC terms as well, but if it's the right time, it's the right time--and I think she's delusional enough to believe now/2012 is the right time.

I'm not sure why everyone thinks Romney is going to be such a force in 2012/2016. He was never really that liked in 2008, and he will have been out of public office for five years by the time 2012 rolls around. This guy isn't Reagan in 1976, having nearly beaten the incumbent president for renomination and biding his time until 1980. Willard only wishes to have that much heft.

Now, in my opinion, the MUCH more intriguing question is: does Pawlenty run for re-election? His re-election would be much more in doubt in blue Minnesota, and he has much more of a national blank slate than Palin, Romney or Huckabee.

I suspect the party will turn to someone new in 2012: Pawlenty, Jindal, Sanford, perhaps even Huntsman if they could stomach a "moderate."

She runs
It won't take much of a campaign to get her reelected up there anyway.

With regard to 2012 I see lots of Repubs thinking about it but very few making anything like a firm decision until very late next year. Some might leave it even later. They are all watching Obama's numbers like hawks and that will override everything else. None of the prospective candidates want to be the second coming of Barry Goldwater but neither do they want to be Mario Cuomo.

I say she doesn't run
Too time consuming and forces her to deal with troublesome local issues instead of positioning on national issues.  Also the economy-driven budget crunches across the country don't make for a fun time to run for governor.
Palin is running for President
even if it is clear she'll be a Goldwater.  She's an arrogant fascist, who truly believes that God has chosen her to be dictator of the world, in otherwise a more charismatic version of Bush.

She'll run for reelection as well, since she believes that Alaska will rubber stamp her ambitions.

What if God tells her to wait until 2016?
Or does she not have a direct line like Bush? Nah I think if it looks like a likely Obama landslide she and others will wait. Then they'll end up with someone like Huntsman or Pawlenty who the base can whine about as not being conservative enough as the reason for their thrashing.
[ Parent ]
God rubber stamps whatever Queen Sarah wants
and gosh darn it, she wants the Presidency now.
[ Parent ]
You nailed it
She'll run for Governor in 2010 and President in 2012 both.  When she runs for President I'd even pull an IHateBush and work for her campaign in Florida if the primary here ends up mattering.

Barring a major Obama scandel I think he'd beat Palin head to head by a bigger margin than he beat McCain.  Probably high 370-420 EV's.  The % margin might be close to what Johnson got over Goldwater but the EV's wouldn't be just because there are more deep red states today than there were in 1964.

[ Parent ]
I won't do this
When she runs for President I'd even pull an IHateBush and work for her campaign in Florida if the primary here ends up mattering.

In fact I will do the opposite and possibly work for her most likely opponent, such as Romney.  

Why?  Because Palin is a psychopath whose campaign against Obama could well be an immediate threat to my President's security.  She stirs up her followers like no other leader since Adolf Hitler, and could lead to an attempt on the President's life, or an organized coup attempt.

[ Parent ]
That's part of the reason I'd volunteer for her campaign
To keep tabs on everything that goes on within her campaign at all levels and to report all threats and illegal activity to the authorities.  If she did run I'd urge people on the left throughout the country to do the same.  A network of informants is necessary to minimize the threat her campaign could cause to the current administration and to the country at large.
[ Parent ]
I think you do a disservice to the secret service

[ Parent ]
Absolutely not
They are the one and only arm of national security I trust.  They are excellent at their job and extremely loyal to whomever is President.  But they are limited in number.  It's up to ordinary people at the street level to inform them on threats that they may not be aware of.
[ Parent ]
Good point
I was under the impression that you were doing so Palin could actually be nominated.  I would never want her to be the nominee, even if she is the weakest possible nominee.
[ Parent ]
Nope
I'm guessing Palin follows the lead of Rudy Giuliani and spends the better part of Obama's first term running for president.

To me, a Senate run is too risky for Palin. Like Rudy, she knows that if she loses, her presidential aspirations are dead. Plus going into the Senate will not give her any greater stature for 2012 -- she'd be a back bencher and any claims to greater experience or foreign policy standing would likely be laughed off by the GOP establishment.

However staying as governor doesn't help her much either. She'd have to lie to Alaskan voters in 2010 and say that she wouldn't be running in 2012. She already faces a much more hostile environment at home thanks to all the scandals that surfaced during the McCain run. And she doesn't have a unified Republican party in Alaska to get her back. I'm expecting meaningful challenges from both the left and right on Palin if she runs for reelection.

Being unemployed has the most benefits for Palin. She can make money by writing a book or three and use book tours to raise her profile. She can go speak at Republican gatherings around the country, building loyalty and her brand. She can take advantage of her extra free time to do more than Governors Sanford, Jindal and Pawlenty - men who will actually have to be doing their real jobs while campaigning for President.

The bottom line is that for Palin, everything is always about Sarah first. What is best for Sarah? Not taking a political hit in a heavily contested reelection campaign and not risking career suicide by failing to defeat Lisa Murkowski in a Senate run. I think Palin is done in Alaska politics between 2010 and 2014 (I would not put it past her to not run for reelection, fail to win the White House, then run for governor again in 2014).

I'm proud to work for the Service Employees International Union.

"A heavily contested reelection campaign"
Really? Who do you have up there likely to run who would be anything beyond a sacrificial lamb?
[ Parent ]
Divided GOP
The GOP in Alaska has always been divided. Palin and her LT Gov are part of the reform generation that sought to displace corrupt pols like Frank Murkowski, Don Young & Ted Stevens. Outgoing State Senator Lyda Green has been a major thorn in Palin's side and I wouldn't be surprised if she finds someone to run against Palin in the primary. I'm no longer in Alaska so I'm a little out of the loop on who that might be under current thinking, but I would expect it.

As far as Democrats go, I've heard a few state legislators considering a run. Eric Croft could run again and I personally would love to see Les Gara consider a run for statewide office.

I think it would take something of a perfect storm for Palin to lose, but I don't see her wanting to do anything that requires work prior to 2011's campaign.  

I'm proud to work for the Service Employees International Union.

[ Parent ]
Interesting
But aren't her job approvals still in the high 60's? Incumbents don't lose with numbers like that.
[ Parent ]
Yes
They are still very high.  The rest of the country may know she's a clown (no offense to clowns), but Alaska loves her for whatever reason.
[ Parent ]
Alaska Bloggers' Takes
Linda Kellen Biegel of Celtic Diva's Blue Oasis, Alaska's top progressive community blog, and Dan Fagan, a right wing radio host in Anchorage (probably Alaska's biggest right wing talking head), are in agreement that Palin will probably not seek reelection. Fagan writes:

It is now abundantly clear that Sarah Palin has no intention of running for a second term as governor and will instead focus on her national ambitions.

Meaning she is now a lame duck. When the legislature told her in clear terms a couple of weeks ago her agenda for this session is dead on arrival, the governor must have realized that she had lost her friends in the democratic party and that the conservatives who previously had supported her out of fear were no longer afraid.

The combination of Palin rejecting federal stimulus money and appointing Wayne Anthony Ross to the Attorney General spot should be the final piece of evidence proving that our governor is done with Alaska.

Basically for Fagan, internal screwups during and since her VP candidacy lead him to think that she's just not in it in Alaska any more. She's focused elsewhere and making mistakes that would make reelection difficult. The easiest course for her is to just throw in the towel and focus on the presidency.

I'm proud to work for the Service Employees International Union.

[ Parent ]
Yes
She'll run, and I don't think she'll even need to lie to Alaskans about her presidential asperations. They want her to be President. Even though she's not as popular there as she once was, her favorables are still more than enough to get her a landslide.
[ Parent ]
yes
my guess, she runs again in 2010 and wins, not gonna guess at the percentage but upwards of 55. she passes up on the 2012 race, which she gets a whole slew of new publicity on wether or not shell run, etc, and lets the men like huntsman, romney, sanford and daniels duke it out. she challenges begich in 2014, when shes term limited ne way and prob wins, much to my chagrin, by a decent margin. after two yrs in washington she takes a stab at the 2016 race
If she challenges Begich
I think that means she's waiting until 2020 to run (following the FDR model of several elections, not one, after her loss as a VP candidate). She can't feasibly seat as a Senator for less than 6 months and then run for President. I mean, she could, but she thinks she can win the nomination.
[ Parent ]
Palin is not FDR
Sorry, I couldn't resist...
[ Parent ]
In other breaking news...
Obama is NOT Reagan!
[ Parent ]
What, so you knew FDR?
As Lloyd Bentsen quipped to the Quaylester way back when.
[ Parent ]
Palin
I think a lot of the thinking in this thread is wrong.

I haven't seen any info that says Palin has really been hurt by all of her "scandals" in Alaska.  I'm pretty sure shes still very popular.

I don't really think running for Re-Election and then running for President will hurt her at all.  People always saw that hurts Politicians to run for one office and then another, but I really haven't seen any polling or Election data to support that.

She might get a primary opponent, but It wouldn't matter much, she would crush them.

I am no Sarah Palin fan, but I think people keep underestimating how popular she is on the right.

One last thing LOL @ whoever said the GOP will likely pick a moderate in 2012.  Uhhhhh have you been watching the GOP the past 3 months?  They are lurching right not left.

They will say whoever loses was not conservative enough
That is the point. Neither Huntsman or Pawlenty are anything but conservative but they aren't as crazy as Palin or Jindal. Even the GOP wouldn't nominate a Tancredo. I don't think the supposed big guns will run if they think Obama is likely to crush them - they'll wait for an open race in 2016.
[ Parent ]
I'll say it now
Barring huge scandal, Jon Hunstman is the only Republican who can hold Obama under 300 EVs.  
[ Parent ]
Charlie Crist could too
But there's zero chance he could get the nomination on their side.
[ Parent ]
Yes
I meant someone with a chance of getting the nomination.  
[ Parent ]
But Huntsman can't get the nomination either
Because we all know Romney is going to run in 2012.  And their base is similar.
[ Parent ]
Which Romney?
Seriously, he had his chance. If he couldn't beat McCain and Huckabee he ain't beating someone fresh. Actually, Huckabee looks good as a Bob Dole figure if they think Obama is winning whoever they nominate. The damage control scenario - Huck helps with turnout and the map looks similar to last year.  
[ Parent ]
I have my doubts anybody from Utah
Could do that well. And is religion won't go down well in the south - Obama could well carry Georgia and South Carolina.
[ Parent ]
FYI
The Alaskan state legislature voted something like 37-3 to take all of the stimulus money Palin played politics with and wanted to turn down.

Supposedly she no-showed for a meeting with some key members of the state legislature too and then lied about it to the press.

she runs for guv
then for pres.  there is sort of a feud amongst the alaska gop (palin v murkowski, parnell v young, palin v murkowski jr?), but it all just seems personal.  as long as palin doesn't raise anybody's taxes (frank murkowski's unforgivable sin), she has the governor's seat without breaking a sweat.  and the idea that the press will be hounding her every day about whether she's running for pres seems silly.  what press is there in AK?  they ask her once she says "i have no plans along those lines i'm focused on alaska," the press says "well that's not definitive," she says "i might not be giving the answer you want me to give, but i'm focused on alaska"  and then gives a cute wink.

the feud in the KS GOP or TX GOP is the kind we need to bust them up.

What taxes did Frank Murkowski raise?
I thought Alaska didn't even have state income taxes or state sales taxes?  
[ Parent ]
"proposal by Gov. Frank Murkowski to raise the gas tax from eight cents to 20 cents a gallon
is getting a makeover as it works its way through the state House of Representatives." - Juneau Empire 2003

Palin will try to pretend that it was her clean government reform that won it for her, but I think it was this.

[ Parent ]
20 cents?
LOL.  It's 52 cents here in Florida.  And that's just statewide.  My country tacks on a lot more.  Twenty cents in nothing.
[ Parent ]
Gubernatorial race for AK is 2010
That said I bet she tries to do a twofer...
I'm actually more interested in Jindal
He says he isn't running in 2012. How can he if he wants to be reelected in Louisiana in 2011? Two months before Iowa and New Hampshire? We saw in 2004 and 2008 (at least on the Repub side) that the campaign is basically run the previous year. How does he raise the necessary money? No way Jose. Jindal is more likely in 2016.  
[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure he backed off the certainly
And is now undecided about 2012.
[ Parent ]
Then he ain't running for reelection
And if the country wants rid of Obama in 2012 it won't be for someone younger and with a similarly thin resume.
[ Parent ]
Palin is in 2012
I think she has to run in 2012 - she has to capitalize on her momentum; same goes for Romney and Huckabee.  Politics is a game of "what have you done for me lately?" and staying out of the game for 8 years won't cut it for this group, as by then a new crop of GOP contenders will emerge and take their place.  She will run again in 2010 unless it looks like she'd be in for an extremely tough fight (not likely), where in that case I think she'd drop out and run for President in 2012.  She may end up being the sacrificial lamb for 2012 as she'd be delusional enough to think she can win and most other candidates would step out of her way rather than risk the wrath of her rabid supporters.
This is exactly why I'm so confident Obama wins re-election easily
It seems a near certainty that the GOP is going to run the same clowns they from 2008 - Romney, Palin and Huckabee.  All people their base likes, but people unelectable in a general election.  Unless some moderate sleeper pick like Huntsman somehow gets through their primary they are going to get destroyed in 2012.
[ Parent ]
To the Republicans' credit,
they DID pick the most electable Republican presidential candidate in 2008.  On paper at least.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Maybe
The guy who always worried me most was Huckabee, with McCain a close second.  I think Huckabee would have kept the race closer that it ended up.  Though he still would have lost big.
[ Parent ]
Palin runs for Prez in 2012 -- +80% chance; Gov in 2010 -- +60% chance
Barring something heretofore unforseen, she would win in 2010 easily.  Not having friends in the legislature sure didn't keep Mark Sanford froming winning a second term in SC.  A second term is hers for the asking.  The key is will she ask.  

If she were running for Prez only, she would be making the conservative rounds more often.  SHe is staying in AK, so that tells me she is hoping to boost her resume and cred with another election victory, before running for Prez.

See runs in 2012 because she knows she has to strike while the iron is hot, and for once she would be right.        

I don't think she's all that stupid.
She was just unprepared.  And I'm willing to bet that, with good preparation, she is pretty dangerous.

The worst defeat is one where it's your own fault for underestimating your opponent.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
What's the downside for Palin?
She's that popular with enough of Alaska that an acknowledged presidential run won't mean a lost governor race.  It'll just be argued that Obama is eminently beatable b/c "everyone I know" thinks he's awful, 2008 was McCain's fault, and Alaskan interests are finally going to DC.  She could probably get elected to most any political seat in Alaska.  The only races that would give her trouble would be Lisa Murkowski's Senate seat, Anchorage mayor, and some in the rural communities.

An Alaskan's 2 cents.

Poor poll questions.
A better poll with more options might have been:
a. Gov in 2010, then POTUS in 2012
b. Gov in 2010, then POTUS in 2016
c. skips 2010 to run for POTUS in 2012
d. other
------
I go with "a". Because DavidNYC's points against doing that are very good convincing reasons for any sane reasonable politician, but we're talking about Palin here.
AK-Gov: Will Palin Run Again? | 49 comments

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