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Redistricting 2012 (again): Michigan

by: Menhen

Sat Mar 28, 2009 at 9:02 PM EDT


I know redistricting diaries are a dime a dozen these days, but I'm going to do one that has never been done before: Michigan (assuming full Democratic control of the process).  Nathaniel90 already drew a split control compromise map found here: http://www.swingstateproject.c...  

Michigan will be losing a seat in 2012, going from 15 to 14.  I think the chances of full Democratic control is about 50-50 or maybe slightly better.  It looks like we have a very good shot at taking back control of the State Senate, while the Governors race is still pretty much up in the air, with presumptive nominee John Cherry lagging in the most recent poll.  But this far out, no one can predict this one yet.

By this map Democrats would presumably hold a 9-5 advantage in Representation.  They currently hold a 8-7 Advantage.  In 2002, when Republicans drew the map, they (Rs) held a 9-6 advantage.  My map protects freshmen Gary Peters and Mark Schauer, while throwing Dave Camp and Mike Rogers into a district together.  It also draws a much more Democratic district for Thaddeus McCotter (or his Democratic successor), presumably eliminating him if he isn't already gone by 2012.

My map was drawn on microsoft paint, and some of the more detailed borders aren't exact.  Also my computer has some kind of problem with pixelation or something, so it may appear a little blurry.  Without further ado, here's my map with district profiles down below the flip.  

Menhen :: Redistricting 2012 (again): Michigan
District 1- (Bart Stupak D) mostly the same but expands to include Kalkaska, Roscommon, and the rest of Bay County.  Overall becomes slightly more Democratic.

District 2- (TBD[successor of Pete Hoekstra]R) gives up Allegan County in the south, as well as Eastern portions of Ottawa County and the North-West corner of Kent County that was formerly in the district.  Gains Leelanau, Grand Traverse, Missaukee, and Osceola Counties.  This district becomes a bit more Democratic (mostly because it loses strongly conservative parts of Ottawa and Kent Counties) and Barack Obama would have carried this district narrowly, but it should still favor Republicans in the future.

District 3- (Vern Ehlers R) Drops Barry and Ionia County in exchange for some very Conservative areas of Kent and Ottawa Counties.  Becomes more Republican.

District 4- (Dave Camp R + Mike Rogers R) I decided that I would throw these two together because I did not want to eliminate Thad McCotter in case he is defeated by a Democrat in 2010. I put Livingston County (Rogers base and home) in with most of the current 4th District. Dave Camp should be the favorite considering it includes his base of Midland as well as most of his old turf, but I wouldn't count Mike Rogers out.  The inclusion of Livingston County makes this district more Republican.  Barack Obama would have lost here.

5th District- (Dale Kildee D)  Looks like a combination of James Barcia's old District and Dale Kildee's current district.  It drops all of the territory it held in Bay County but gains the more Republican thumb counties of Huron and Sanilac.  However, with Flint as the base of this district and Genesee County making up more than half of the population, this District stays Democratic.

6th District- (Fred Upton R) This is the most gerrymandered district in the state, and yet it only splits one County!  This district looks quite a bit different from it's current shape  It's base of Kalamazoo is taken out to make Mark Schauer safer.  In exchange it gets all of Allegan, Barry, and Branch counties and about half of Eaton County.  The loss of Kalamazoo makes this district a lot more Republican, although Barack Obama may have won here, depending on exactly what parts of Eaton County are included.

7th District-  (Mark Schauer D) I think that I succeeded in making Mark Schauer safe from any Republican challenge, but I fear that I may have set him up for a primary challenge from a Lansing area Democrat, as Lansing becomes the new base of this district.  The only part of the old 7th district that I left was Calhoun County (Battle Creek) which is Schauer's home.  I put in all of Ingham and Kalamazoo Counties and about half of Eaton.  Barack Obama won every county in this district and probably came close to 60% here.

8th District- (Gary Peters D)  It is hard to tell on my map, but according to my plan for the 8th district, Gary Peters would get Madison Heights and Southfield, both extremely Democratic cities (Barack Obama got 88% in Southfield), while dropping the strongly Republican cities of Rochester, Rochester Hills, and Berkley.  The addition of Southfield probably brings Barack Obama to around 60% here.

9th District- (Candice Miller R)  Instead of a "Thumb" district, this district becomes a "Detroit suburbs and exurbs district." It loses Sterling Heights and Utica in Macomb County, and Huron and Sanilac Counties in "The Thumb," While picking up some seriously Republican turf in Oakland County, including the suburb Novi that is currently in Thad McCotters 11th District.  It still includes the Republican leaning Exurb St. Clair and Lapeer Counties.

10th District- (Thad McCotter R [Should favor Democrat])  Includes all of Thad McCotter's current portion of Wayne County, plus the cities of Inkster, Romulus, and part of Dearborn Heights.  The current part of Wayne County in the 11th gave Obama 57%.  That probably bumps up to just under 60% Obama.  Also includes Monroe County, which Obama won 51-47.

11th District- (Sander Levin D)  Changes very little, except that it swaps out Southfield for the rest of Sterling Heights.  Becomes a bit less Democratic, but still favors Levin or his successor.

12th District- (Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick D)  One of two VRA protected districts in Michigan.  Population loss will force this district to expand, but it still stays within Wayne County and is majority Black.

13th District-  (John Conyers D)  The other VRA district expands into Dearborn but stays heavily Black and heavily Democratic. (Note that John Dingell's home is in this new district, but I expect that he'll have retired by 2012 and if frankly, if Debbie Dingell is holding his seat by then, I really don't care if she gets stuck in Conyer's district)

14th District- (John Dingell D)  This district moves out of Wayne County and now takes in all of Washtenaw County as well as Jackson, Lenawee, and Hillsdale Counties.  It is now completely based in Ann Arbor and should elect a liberal, Ann Arbor Democrat.  Barack Obama won three out of the four Counties in this new district.

Questions? Comments? Errors to point out?  Leave 'em in the comments.  
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Redistricting 2012 (again): Michigan | 20 comments
Man
I'd really like for Dems to be in control of Michigan.  A 9-5 Dem map was about where I'd imagine it will be if it happens.  Though even a compromise map in Michigan would be an improvement over the current map.

Probably a 50/50 shot at having full control.  The House is pretty solidly controlled post-2008.  The state Senate looks promising with a lot of open seats on the republican side.  It could come down to the Governorship.

No need to be so conservative
Put Grand Rapids and Muskegeon without Ottawa Co in a district and make another Repub sweat.

And Schauer doesn't need that much protection, so don't put Kalamazoo in his district, put it back in Upton's district and chase him.  

Run Peters district into Detroit, have him give up some Dem areas in Oakland, and stick that in Candice Miller's district and challenge her hard.

We should shoot for 12-2 in Michigan.

That seems likely...
to produce a string of Dem losses in a less favorable election cycle. The point should be to secure and cement a more modest majority so that all but the toughest election cycle would preserve our seat count.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
[ Parent ]
I'll take that chance
Normally you would be right, but we're at the beginning of a very important crisis period right now, similar to 1860-1867 and 1933-1939.  The important thing is to have as huge a majority as possible in 2013-2014, to put an imprint on the country's future that cannot and will not be reversed by future Congresses and Presidents.  There were backlashes to the New Deal as well in 1938, 1942, and 1946, and the Dems lost lots of seats in those years.  But because they had a huge majority in the key years, they were able to pass ground breaking legislation.

I'm willing to go to the mat for a 12-2 edge in Michigan in 2012, even if it means that it might melt to a 8-10 or even 7-11 deficit in say 2018.

[ Parent ]
I'd err on the side of caution
You can get most of your agenda done in the House with a simple majority, unlike the Senate where you need 60 votes.  If we try to stretch ourselves too thin in 2012 redistricting it would only destroy our majority in the next decade.  I'd rather have a 9-5 or 10-4 Michigan map for a full decade than a 12-2 map for a few cycles.
[ Parent ]
We need to build an ideological majority
among the people like the New Deal majority did.  It didn't matter so much that the Repubs gained Congres in 1946 and 1952 or that Ike was elected President as much as that the New Deal ideas and thought became the political framework.  To a lesser extent the Reagan ideology has ruled the country since 1981 until now.  Bill Clinton only expanded Reagonomics, he could never repeal it.

In order to do so, we need to pass our agenda now, and sell it so it is popular among the public, so that even if more moderate Repubs get elected later, Obama's agenda will never be at risk for repeal, only to be extended.  Eisenhower expanded the New Deal in many ways.  To do so, we need to have the maximum number of Democrats in these next few years to overcome some of these Blue Dogs who want to curb some of these initiatives.  

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure that would work
If you spread out the Democratic voters too thinly, you'll get Moderate Dems that need to appeal to a swing voter constituency, which is just the sort of thing you're against.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
That may be true in the South and border states
but even a "moderate" Democrat in Michigan will support labor and Obama's agenda on economics, and outside Detroit (and probably within), on clean energy and the environment.

We would get 12 Democrats who will vote with the President on his primary agenda and support labor's goals like EFCA.  Even conservative Dem Bart Stupak is a down the line vote for these programs.  Some of them may vote against choice, gun control, and gay marriage, but that's ok.  The only portion of Obama's agenda that may cause trouble for these "moderates" would be immigration reform.

[ Parent ]
My opinion on that
If its just to merely 'play by the Republicans' rules' since theyd be 'doing it anyway' then i can see it being no problem. But if the reasoning behind it is just merely to protect incumbents then i just cant agree. I dont think thats democratic. Its hard to complain about other country's systems if ours isnt entirely democratic either. It is, in theory, obviously, as theres actual elections...but its not truly democratic if you try to have every district be safe for one party. With that said i think you do a great job with these maps. you put alot of time and effort into it and its much appreciated.
[ Parent ]
Well, not safe for every GOP district, of course
But i do notice a trend of making alot of theirs safe just to help out Dems and producing a 'permanent Dem majority map'.
[ Parent ]
12-2?
I don't know about 12-2, but here's what I'd do.  Start with Menhen's additions to Stupak's district, but add Allegan, Leefenau, and Grand Traverse, as well.  Drop the southern counties of the 2nd into the 3rd and 6th. Divide the existing Dem-concentrated 5th district in half, with Flint in one half and Saginaw in the other.  The Flint Half will be the new 4th District, and will include the "thumb" counties of Huron, Sanilac, Lapeer, and upper St. Clair as far as Port Huron.  (Candace Miller, the occupant of the 10th, resides in Macomb County and will not be in this district) The other half will be the new 5th, and include the blue Huron Counties taken from the 1st, and will include Midland, on the east end of the 4th, as well. Kildee could run in either district, but I would hope he'd take the new 4th and let a new Democrat occupy the new 5th.  What's left of the 2nd district would extend into Osceola, Clare, Mecosta and Isabella Counties, in that order.  We now have six districts, 3 blue, 3 red.  What's left of the 4th would combine with the reddest parts of the existing 7th and 8th to become the new 7th.  The new 8th would still be based in Lansing, but would combine the bluest parts of the existing 7th and 8th. This is Schauer's new turf.  That leaves six more districts to be made out of Detroit and its suburbs, with four super-safe incumbents, using the existing 11th through 15th Districts and the southern remains of the 12th. Sander Levin could take all of the remaining 10th and still be safe. Dingell could trade parts of his district into the 9th, 11th, or even the eastern part of the 7th. The 12th and 13th could take a big chunk out of the 9th and remain 60% Democrat. Maybe we could get all six districts Democrat, maybe we'd have to concentrate Republicans into one suburban Detroit district.

That's not a bad map, either, but I just realized it maybe just gets one more district for us than Menhen does.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Dingell and Conyers
Putting the two most senior House members into the same district when Democrats control the trifecta seems unlikely.  Dingell just became the longest serving House member in US history.  Now he's homing in on Carl Hayden and Bobby Byrd whose combined service time for House and Senate exceeds his.

Dingell lost a lot of power when his chairmanship was taken from him.  He still may be the strongest ally the auto industry has in DC.  That would seem to keep him in the House and keep the districting in his favor for a while.  No Republican is going to do the auto industry any good no matter how they vote and Peters and Schauer are of limited value now.  Conyers has other interests.

The very thing that turns you off about Dingell may keep him in place.  

If Dingell is still serving in 2012
his home could be put into the 10th District.  That district would be very similar to the district he represented from 1992-2002.  Dingell would likely have an easy time dispatching McCotter, especially with his name recognition and seniority.  But still, John Dingell can hardly walk, he's been getting around using crutches for months(I believe he had a knee replacement).  And losing the chairmanship of the Energy and Commerce Committee.  I still think he will retire at the end of this term.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
Yup. Dingell's home base is southeast Wayne...
...and there is every expectation he wants to hand it down to his son just as his father handed the seat down to him.

That map would essentially force Dingel into the 10th and against Thad.  On the other hand it is a race Dingell probably could win and moves the district back out of Ann Arbor which was originally done to redraw Lynn Rivers out of her district.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
Dingal
I wonder if going for the record of combined-service-in-Congress is of any personal motivating factor for Dingal. Or if that's totally irrelevant to him.
(He's still about 3½ years behind Carl Hayden. So close!)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...
[ Parent ]
Bobby Byrd
Dingell is third behind Hayden and Bobby Byrd.  Byrd is a movoing target.

Dingell seems to be the only thing between Tom Geithner and the remains of the auto industry.  Geithner and his pals are winning big time.  What makes them think that Fiat can "save" Chrysler when Mercedes could not?  What makes media speculator Steve Rattner the sole arbiter of GM's fate?  Geithner.

This is looking pretty bad and if it goes bad, the map and Michigan could change drastically.  

[ Parent ]
Great map
I see you kept counties together as much as possible to make clean-looking districts, while making newly elected Democrats safer. I'm sure that wasn't easy.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
Uh oh
Now that Replicans contol everything, look for Peters' district to get eliminated and split between Sandy Levin and Kildee.  The Dems will be left with 5 safe seats in southeast Michigan (the two Detroit seats, Dingell's downriver/Ann Arbor, Levin's increasingly minority inner ring suburb seat, and the I-75 corridor seat that Kildee and Peters will have to fight for).  9 GOP seats.  Ugh.  
McCotter will need protecting
His seat will go Democratic with a good challenger.  Same with Mike Rogers.
[ Parent ]
Mike Rogers safer than that
Mike Rogers won his seat by 121 votes -- far less than the swing after "final" results were announced (against him), and less than the Dems probably lost to botched voting protocols in each of Lansing and East Lansing.  The Democrat kept her spot in the State Senate, so was just as visible as before.  

But two years later, when the district was redrawn to the current boundaries, she took a demotion to the House instead of trying the rematch.  (Term limits kept her from staying in the State Senate.)  Two years after that (again termed out), she took retirement (though she has since run successfully for a statewide education seat) rather than try again.  Several other Lansing-area politicians have tried for or held statewide office.  But no one with any successful elections has been willing to even try unseating Rogers -- and it isn't because Lansing folks are happy with him.

That tells me the current borders aren't really as swingish as you suggest.

[ Parent ]
Redistricting 2012 (again): Michigan | 20 comments

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