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SSP Daily Digest: 3/27

by: Crisitunity

Fri Mar 27, 2009 at 1:50 PM EDT


NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo made statements in a speech at Schenectady County Community College on Tuesday to the effect that his "only plan is to run for re-election as attorney general," and that he believes David Paterson will be re-elected as governor. I wouldn't be prone to believe him (and it seems like nobody else does either; only The Hill has taken any notice of this comment), given his poll numbers and the fundraising groundwork he's laid. It just seems weird; he's well past the point where he needs to be coy about his plans.

NY-20: About that recent DNC ad touting Obama's endorsement of Scott Murphy... while the existence of the ad itself has been gobbling up a good deal of headlines, it appears that it won't actually be seen by a lot of eyeballs in-district. The DNC's independent expenditure filing with the FEC indicates that they're only putting up $10,000 for the ad buy. (J)

CA-10: Departing Rep. Ellen Tauscher has already endorsed state senator Mark DeSaulnier to take her place. Apparently she had intended to wait until he formally announced his candidacy, but the internal poll from yesterday from assemblywoman Joan Buchanan showing her in the lead may have forced Tauscher's hand.

UT-Sen: The knives are still out for Bob Bennett, but it's looking like someone higher up the totem pole than former Juab County DA David Leavitt may jump into the primary: Attorney General Mark Shurtleff is also "considering" it. Ultra-conservatives sense an opening because of Bennett's pro-bailout vote, and also because of Utah's unique nominating system. A candidate who consolidates activist support and breaks 60% at the state convention outright wins, and can avoid the primary altogether.

KS-Sen: Here's another example of how Oklahoma senator Tom Coburn likes to keep us guessing. Not only is he wading into the GOP senate primary in his neighboring state, but he's endorsing Rep. Jerry Moran, who passes for a moderate by Kansas standards, over Rep. Todd Tiahrt, from the religious right corner of the party.

MI-11: Back to the drawing board? Democratic state Sen. Glenn Anderson, who has been the target of a draft effort to encourage him to take on GOP weirdo Thaddeus McCotter, says that he'll probably run for re-election instead. (J)

PA-12: Bill Russell, who held Jack Murtha to 58% in 2008, is back for another try in 2010. No word if he'll use BMW Direct for his fundraising efforts again.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/27
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Pathetic
That's an awful adbuy by the DNC. I've heard mixed things from people inside the 20th about how that ad would be received, but now I guess that conversation's moot.  

Why the DNC
Aren't independent expenditures for congressional races usually done by the DNCC?

[ Parent ]
DCCC
And yes normally throughout a cycle, it's the DCCC which makes IE's, however the DNC is capable of jumping into any race it pleases. While the DNC focuses on presidential elections during that cycle, it can work to get any Democrat elected.

The RNC has dropped over 100k on this race, so there is reason for the DNC to at least throw cash at it too, particularly after the Obama endorsement. This is a statement on Michael Steele of course too.


[ Parent ]
yeah, i understand cuomo doesn't want to appear overeager
but how could anyone say he expects paterson to be reelected without busting out laughing?

It's easier for everyone
if Paterson backs out himself.  

[ Parent ]
This too shall pass
I'm thinking Cuomo is under the (probably mistaken) impression that Patterson's troubles won't be troubles in a year and a half or so.  And it may be that they get better, but that's a damn big hole to dig out of.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
I agree
If I thought Paterson had any real political skills I might predict a turnaround given how Democratic NY is.  But he's a horrible politician.  He's done.  I think Cuomo is just playing nice in public and hoping Paterson does the honorable thing and declines to run.  I'd be shocked if Cuomo didn't run for Gov.

[ Parent ]
More than the disability
Paterson just seems so unaware and clunsy about how anything will play out.  Nothing is obvious to him and his instincts seem like they run naturally counter to what most of the party's voters would want.  I keep using the word "blind" when thinking about Paterson and it has nothing to do with his disability.  Truly ironic but none are so blind as those who refuse to see.  Even the physically blind.

[ Parent ]
Safe districts
Paterson was elected to a safe black majority state Senate seat in 1985 and neve won with less than 78% of the vote.  It's easy to hang around when all you have to do is vote like a liberal in a safe district.  

I think it was always obvious that Spitzer picked him and he accepted the Lt. Governor job to shore up Spitzer's NYC minority voting base.  It was never intended by anyone that the guy would one day actually become Governor.  Noone could have forseen Spitzer would last such a short time in office.  I think everyone is a little to blame for the disaster that is his Governorship.


[ Parent ]
Paterson was also supposed to get Hillary's Senate seat
upon her ascension to the Presidency. He probably would've made a better Senator.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Was he really?
Never heard that.  But ya, I think he would have been a capable Senator.  Not crazy popular, but enough to get re-elected in New York.  He's just not cut out for an Executive position.

[ Parent ]
Yeah that was the story among Democratic circles
around New York when Spitzer picked him as his running mate. It surprised many people who thought he'd pick someone from Upstate; Syracuse Mayor Matthew Driscoll, State Senator Neil Breslin from Albany or then Assemblyman, now Senator, Darrell Aubertine who is from Cape Vincent all the way in the Northwestern corner of the state in the Thousand Islands area.

What many around Spitzer at the time were saying was that he was raising Paterson's name recognition statewide by making him Lt. Governor so he could take Hillary's Senate seat when she becomes President.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Being a Senator isnt as hard as it looks
As long as you got the right people to help you out (as in your aides, whod help with constituent services, reading/ helping you understand bills, etc). If Robert Byrd and the late Strom Thurmond were able to do it without feeling the need to resign out of the feeling of being overwhelmed...then almost anyone who is an intelligent being can handle it. But...it doesnt mean we should settle. Being merely average and competent isnt good enough.  

[ Parent ]
Spitzer
I know, before and immediately after his election to Gov., people were talking up Spitzer as a possible Pres. contender in 2012 or AG. But I wonder if Spitzer, the whole time, thought the idea of that was nonsense. Im sure he had done some, um, questionable things in his personal life even before the prostitution scandal...and he probably didnt want it to leak. Its enough being Gov. of a big state but running for Pres. or being Attorney General? Its alot more likely something will come out then. So he probably picked Paterson thinking hed never have to be Gov. I bet he thought he could even weather a sex scandal as Gov. Given his massive popularity. But obviously it started to wane before the scandal hit. Had he had 70%+ approval ratings at the time of the scandal he might still be Gov.  

[ Parent ]
The driver's license issue really killed him
His plan to give driver's licenses to unlicensed immigrants really hurt him. I think he, and Democrats in general, underestimated how unpopular it would become in New York. A lot of people think New York, being New York, is a pro-immigrant state, it really isn't unless you're the immigrant. I grew up in Queens, the most diverse county in the country, full of immigrants, and I see a lot of anti-illegal immigrant feeling here...even among immigrants themselves who feel illegal, unlicensed immigrants don't deserve to be here. My neighbor is an immigrant from Trindad, legal, and he is one of the most anti-illegal immmigrant person I've ever seen...it doesn't matter if you're Mexican, Chinese, even Trindadian, he wants you out. Spitzer hit a nerve with the driver's license plan. He was already on thin ice before that, but he was still relatively popular.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
This isnt said much, but its true
African Americans are somewhat conservative on illegal immigration. Do they have Tom Tancredo-like rhetoric when discussing it? No. But they certainly are conservative on the issue. So I can see them teaming up with 'groups' like working class whites in places like Queens and Buffalo in opposing drivers liscenses for illegal immigrants.

[ Parent ]
Not meaning to single them out
Just mentioning them because theyre not known as the most conservative voters in NY yet even they take conservative positions on illegal immigration. So theres definitely not many people who would be pro-drivers liscenses in NY.

[ Parent ]

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