I think "lean D" is on target

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by: andgarden @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 19:55:38 PM UTC

Great news

Dodd is probably at his absolute low point right now in the polls.  If he's up 5 despite all the bad press I'm feeling very good about this one.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 19:56:57 PM UTC

Oh hell

I was one of the folks on here that said this was nothing and was going to be nothing.  So, while this isn't as bad as some thought, I'll have to eat some crow too.  There does appear to be a there there with reference to Dodd.  Blumenthal, who I wanted to use for other purposes) would be a great choice for us if Dodd does back out.  And I really doubt Rell jumps in.  She's a legislator who's done little wrong and revealed next to nothing of herself.  She won't be able to that in the Senate.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 21:54:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rell

I meant "she's an executive who hasn't had to reveal anything about herself".

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 21:55:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Her popularity

If anything her popularity has more to do with her not being incredibly corrupt than anything else.  Just about anyone looks good compared to Connecticut's last Governor.  The fact that she battled cancer probably scores her sympathy points too.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 22:01:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

She'll have to position herself

During a Senate campaign, she'll have to take a stance on things she doesn't now.  Being clean mght not save her.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 22:12:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

Right now Rell can be as liberal as she wants and doesn't have to worry.  But asking voters to send you to D.C. where you have to caucus with a party that is unpopular in your state is a different story.  

I suspect Simmons will have this problem.  Right now people are reluctant to say they'll vote for Dodd because they don't like the bad publicity he's generated of late.  My guess is when CT voters realize that Simmons was nothing but a right-wing Bushbot when he was in the House they'll abandon him in mass.  He might hold Dodd to a 55-45 type of win, but that's about the worst case I'm seeing unless this AIG thing gets worse for Dodd.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 23:46:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mother Theresa

You are more on target than most people would think.  My girl friend met Mother Theresa in the last few months of her life.  On the one hand she was the sweet old lady (very frail).  On the other hand she could talk nearly anybody into doing these incredibly charitable acts by the force of her personality and her accomplishments.  In one sense, Mother Theresa was a uniquely effective "politician."  In another sense, she never ran for office but would have been a natural.

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 20:04:37 PM UTC

Charitable acts? Baloney.

I knew a doctor who worked at one of her "clinics" overseas once.  He quit the place fairly quickly after realizing is was nothing more than a horribly run factory for converting people to Catholicism.  People were generally treated like garbage by her clinics, typically family members were not even allowed to visit their sick relatives since it was considered they maybe a hinderance in the conversion process.  I've done a lot of reading on this woman and there are countless stories like this one out there.  Her sweet personally was nothing more than cover for her much darker side.  

Another massive religious fraud is the Dali Lama.  Far from being a sweet old man supportive of human rights, the Dali Lama's have historically been a lineage of religious autocrats who ruled over their region of China as tyrants.  Good luck finding out the truth about these people on most liberal blogs who idolize them.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 20:22:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Shhhhh ;-)

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by: andgarden @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 20:23:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Read what I wrote

Mother Theresa could easily talk other people into giving away their services or their property and she had that ability for decades.  It was the corner stone that built a tiny organization into a world wide organization.

The charitable acts I am referring to are by the donors of goods and services.  They were very numerous and in some cases ran counter to the normal greed of the individual donor.

Mother Theresa may nhave put these goods and services to good use or maybe she did not.  But her ability to get donations and free services was legendary.  She had great political skills.  Jey, Nixon was the greatest polityical strategist IMO of the second half og yje 20th century but the man was certifiasbly nuts.

(I am inclined personally not to run down some of these giasnts.  Albert Schweitzer was often accused of practicing 18th or 19th century medicine.  His reply was that it was still a leap forward from the 13th century medicine that was previously practiced.)

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by: David Kowalski @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 20:36:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rob Simmons is going to get taken down

a few notches once the campaign starts.  He had the benefit of being out of the spotlight for a few years now, but all it's going to take is some digging up of his votes and actions during the Bush years.  He is no Jodi Rell.

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by: skaje @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 20:12:31 PM UTC

Rell

Does Rell really run against Lieberman?  They ought to have pretty similar politics.  She doesn't strike me as ultra-ambitious...

I'm also surprised to see Blumenthal running better than Lamont.  I figured Lamont would be more polarizing.

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by: omarka @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 20:14:02 PM UTC

She's had healh problems too

I believe she's a cancer survivor.  She doesn't strike me as ambitious either.  My guess is she serves out her time as Governor and retires.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 20:24:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No primary numbers?

Lieberman has been making noises about entering. I agree with the Dodd rating change and that hopefully this is a low watermark.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Mar 26, 2009 at 20:40:28 PM UTC

Crosspost of mine from Hedgehog and KOS:

so, by "Guys", I mean republican ranters and ravers...but this information is just as relevant for democrats, especially for democrats who think the sky is falling the moment some polls show temporary weakness for a DEM candidate.

"You know, thinking that a republican is going to win a senate seat in CT is pretty much like thinking that a democrat is going to win a senate seat in UT. This is plain old nonsense.

Guys, this states is fool's gold for the GOP.

Obama just won this state with 60.59% of the popular vote and swamped McCain's 38.22% with a 22.37% winning margin, very comparable to McCain's win in AL. Did anyone here think that Obama was going to win AL? Are there any democratic senators from AL? No.

You can rejoice all you want over wavering polls for Dodd now, 1 and 1/2 years before the 2010 elections, but on election day in 2010, after having flirted with the GOP as both Connecticut and New Jersey usually do, voters in CT will vote reliably democratic.

Dodd will win in a landslide. Why? Here's why:

Dodd's worst showing in an election was in 1980, during the "Reagan Revolution", where Dodd landslided with 56.34% over Buckley's 42.91%, a +13.43% winning margin, and this was his WORST showing ever in electoral politics as a nominated candidate. In 2004, Dodd won with 66.35% to Orchulli's 32.13%, a +34.22% blowout margin, slightly higher than his +32.78% margin blowout over Gary Franks in 1998, which was also considerably larger than his 1992 margin of +20.69%. So, regardless of administration in the WH, republican or democratic, Dodd has always won in landslides in his homestate, both in the senate and before in CT's 2nd congressional district.

Those are the statistics and they are undeniable. Even if the GOP prepares a massive and costly onslaught against Dodd, he has enough core support to bring him over 50% even on his worst day. It's that simple.

But what the hey, if the GOP wants to waste the resources, more power to it."

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by: bonncaruso @ Fri Mar 27, 2009 at 10:30:24 AM UTC

That's still my feeling

It's goign to be another New Jersey or Maryland (2006) for the GOP.  They'll waste millions on Simmons behalf as they did for countless GOP challengers in NJ over the years and Settle in 2006, only to lose by around 10-15 points.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Mar 27, 2009 at 14:33:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dodd rises and falls with the banking sector.

Both because it's CT and that's the cmte he chairs.  Keep in mind that the banking sector is a leading indicator of the economy at the moment.  Odds are, he'll look a lot better a year from now.

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by: omarka @ Fri Mar 27, 2009 at 14:23:50 PM UTC