Ouch.

Not being a New Yorker myself, could somebody inform me what's going on with Paterson?

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

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by: TDDVandy @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 19:12:28 PM UTC

The budget killed him

he got hit statewide by commercial running blaming him for closing hospitals.

"Why Governor Paterson, why are you closing my hospital?"

That's the core problem.

also, a lot of people I talk to don't like him because "he looks stupid"

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 19:26:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Guess that explains it

I had assumed that his handling of the Senate vacancy left a bad taste in some people's mouths, but for his approval numbers to fall that much had to be something else.  Thanks.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

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by: TDDVandy @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 19:34:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He also passed the buck on mass transit fees

Basically telling transit authorities to go ahead and jack up fees.  As usual most of his bugetary decisions seem to be falling heavily on the poor and middle class.  The people sane Democrats rely on for support.  This guy has absolutely no political skills whatsoever.  How did this guy ever rise so far in the party is really hard to believe.

http://www.politickerny.com/26...

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 19:51:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Budget cuts

Im usually against raising anyone's taxes in bad economic times (including the rich because they employ people) but if the choice was between raising taxes for the wealthy and upper middle class and cutting essential services for the poor and lower middle class...well the choice should be obvious. He has to tax a little more. Maybe Long Island will hate him for it but oh well.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:36:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Daddy

Paterson's father, Basil was/is a long time power in NY City and NY State Democratic politics for more than 40 years.  Basil Paterson was elected NY Secretary of State.  He has been friends and allies with David Dinkins and Charlie Rangel.

It looks like David Paterson and George W. Bush were each "legacies."

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 04:44:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Caroline Kennedy stuff did not help

And his constant vacillations don't help either - against the millionaire's tax, then maybe for it, then kinda for it, etc.

Your anecdotal "evidence," though, borders on the bizarre.

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by: DavidNYC @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 19:47:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No

but we're too months removed from the Caroline Kennedy thing. I don't think the Senate appointment is a big part of this, his approval was dropping before that

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 19:55:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In looking at tracking polls

It's obvious that his poor excuse for a budget was his biggest issue.  I just get the feeling that this guy isn't very smart on financial issues.  His latest mess is the mass transit taxes that he's passing the buck on and allowing fees to skyrocket.  

If he were targetting the rich on a lot of these tax hikes he'd probably maintain at least decent approvals, but a major part of his taxes are falling on his poor and middle-class political base.  It's no wonder his approvals are almost as bad with liberals as conservatives.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:35:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Union workers

I know a few weeks back there was an anti-Paterson protest by union workers. Though maybe not specifically just an anti-Paterson protest. But they were definitely chanting against him. Not good when one of your main core constituencies doesnt like you.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:32:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Paterson

Its like hes the Schwarzenegger of NY, in that his own party doesnt like him. Although with Arnold im sure he has alot more support amongst independents and other party members than Paterson.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:33:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looks like Paterson and Schwarzenegger are pretty strongly disliked all across the board.

at least per Survey USA.

Paterson: http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Schwarzenegger: http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 04:35:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Once again

I repeat my plea. Run, David(NYC), Run!

Having Cuomo wouldn't be a whole lot better. Hopefully more alternatives will emerge.  

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by: Populista @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 19:51:57 PM UTC

Terrific!

I'm naming you my national finance chair.... you can raise $3 mil by June, right?

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by: DavidNYC @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 19:55:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'll donate

Sure, that's not technically legal, but I can't find anywhere in England that'll take my Bank of Ireland £5 note, so you're welcome to it.

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by: Englishlefty @ Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 01:48:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

senate election

I feared this could happen, picking an upstate candidate was the only way we could possibly lose this seat and Paterson was stupid enough to do it.  I keep hearing people brag about how Gillibrand will get all these additional votes upstate, what they fail to mention is that for every additional vote she wins upstate, she's likely to lose 2 votes downstate.  If the dynamic of the race is Democrat vs Republican, we'll likely win, because Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans, but if it's turned into an upstate vs downstate contest, they could very well win, because downstaters vastly outnumber upstaters.

Have we learned nothing from the Childers-Davis race in MS-1 and the Kratovil-Harris race in MD-1?  In both those cases the Republicans lost an overwhelmingly Republican district, because they ran a candidate from the wrong part of the district.

That being said, we only have to be concerned about someone who actually pretends to be moderate, like Giuliani or Pataki.  An openly right-wing candidate like Peter King would be lucky to get 40% of the vote in the general election.

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by: D_user1 @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:25:25 PM UTC

Why would she lose 2 votes downstate

or every vote she gets upstate? Downstate New Yorkers are inheritely opposed to anything Upstate. I'm a downstate New Yorkers and I can assure you that's not true.

We always need to be concerned about a Giuliani or a Pataki, Any non-incumbent Democrat would be vulnerable to one of them.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:31:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Umm no

She destroys the downstater (King). You think Pataki plays well in the city? Analogy doesn't work.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:36:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Technically

Pataki is from Upstate...he was Mayor of Peekskill, which is in Northern Westchester County right about where "Upstate" begins.

so, again, the upstate, downstate thing doesn't make sense. a Gillibrand v. Pataki race would be Upstate vs. Upstate.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 21:32:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Huh?!

Way to draw a conclusion totally at odds with the data presented.  These are good general election poll numbers for Gillibrand; much better than we'd see from Caroline Kennedy or a generic NYC rep.

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by: sicembears @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 21:20:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sure

By the way, way to totally destroy an entire part of a state as insignificant.  "Sorry, upstate New York, you will never have your own Senator."  Do you really think people in Manhattan are going to vote for a Republican from Long Island over a Democrat from upstate?

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

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by: TDDVandy @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 21:27:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Showing up

I think the issue may have more to do with getting downstate people to the actual polls with Gillibrand.  I'm live on Long Island and I sure as hell would vote for Gillibrand over my sack of crap Congressman, and I think she would defeat King easily.  However, part of the worry is will downstate New Yorkers show up if Gillibrand is the candidate?  The gun issue is really going to eat at her here.

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by: Smash255 @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 22:00:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Depends on who's at the top of the ticket

Will they show up for Gillibrand...well, will they show up for Cuomo or Schumer?

9 times out of 10, a Democrat will show up for who's on top of the ticket and the rest of the Democrats will benefit.

Gillibrand isn't the top of the ticket, the Governor's race is...Gillibrand suffers if Paterson is the Dem nominee, but not if it's Cuomo.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 22:14:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

forgot about Schumer, the Primary is still her biggest concern

I forgot for the moment Schumer will also be on the ticket or though the possibility remains that people could just skip the Gillibrand race, with that being said having Cuomo and Schumer topping the ticket obviously does help her.  Her biggest issue is still going to be the Primary rather than the General.  If Dems downstate decide to clear the field for one or two candidates or if it is an all out slug fest likely will determine if she survives the Primary.  If it is a generally clear Primary field with the exception of someone like Steve Israel, she will be in quite a bit of trouble

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by: Smash255 @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 22:21:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If her fundraising is anything like last year

That will likely scare them all off.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 22:39:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I doubt there will even be a primary

If Gillibrand gets the support of Chuck Schumer and/or Mike Bloomberg, she wins in the city and that'll end any competitive primary.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 00:25:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Guns

She has already shifted position in light of her expanded constituency. Are Pataki or King going to be able to outflank her on it? Unlikely. Even if they got traction they are out of sync with the electorate on most every other issue.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 22:43:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Still an issue

she may have shifted a bit on guns, but it is still a big issue downstate.  The gun trace data issue she sponsored is just mind numbing to people downstate as the guns under her bed issue.  Also even with her shift in positions, the fact she has done a complete 180 doesn't sit well with many people here.  Newsday had a story recently profiling Brentwood (a majority Hispanic, heavily Democratic working class community in Israel's district on LI) the views of Gillibrand weren't very strong and it was mostly do to the gun issue.

A little over 62% of the 04 Democratic Primary voters (and 65% of the registered Dems in NY) are from NYC or Long Island, that number jumps to a little under 70% of the 04 Primary voters and 71% of registered Dems once you throw Rockland County and Westchester in the mix.  If a strong candidate emerges such as Israel or even Maloney Gillibrand is going to have a real battle on her hands in the Primary.

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by: Smash255 @ Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 03:50:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I live in Queens

and the gun issue here isn't that strong...and because she came out for same-sex marriage, she is getting huge support in the gay community.

I don't think guns is something that's gonna sink her unless (god forbid) there is a huge noteworthy act of gun violence and she reiterates her opposition to gun control.

Newsday also has the appearance of a bias against her. The way they covered her "guns under the bed" story, they were mocking her for it and many upstate (and even here in Queens) felt it was unfair.

If someone like Israel or Maloney run against her, it will be on guns alone, which isn't a strong enough issue to beat her...although the real issue appears to be Upstate/Downstate. Downstate powers that be don't like having an Upstater in office. (told to me by the President of the Long Island Association).

That's too damn bad.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 05:41:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

guns & flips

If someone like Israel or Maloney run against her, guns are obviously going to be part of it, but her 180 switch on guns and gays will make her a target as a flip flopper.

Her views on guns might not hurt her too much in some of the white ethnic areas around Howard Beach and Ozone Park, but some of the minority areas such as Jamaica, Corona, Jackson Heights, Elmhurst, etc it will be an issue.

Guns are obviously going to be a major issue on Long Island, and that goes from the poor areas to the wealthy areas and everywhere in between.  

Money is obviously going to be a big factor and Gillibrand is in a better position to fundraise than the others, but keep in mind the heavy donors tend to be in Manhattan, and Long Island.

BTW, in regards to your blog, both my parents grew up in Southern Queens, my mother actually lived right on Liberty Ave (which is where my Grandparents remained till the late 90's after my grandfather passed away and my grandmother was no longer able to take care of herself.

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by: Smash255 @ Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 06:50:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Flip flopper

Not really. She just says she changed to take in the views of the people she now represents after represeting a much narrower constituency with their own views in NY-20. And I don't think she changed position on gay mariage so much as actually made clear what her actual position happened to be.  

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by: conspiracy @ Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 11:51:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pataki

Im surprised Pataki is polling at 41% and even with Gillibrand. As he left office an unpopular Gov. True, not Mitt Romney unpopular but still unpopular. If this were a swing state or if he were a Democrat then ok i can see him being at 41%. But an unpopular Republican ex-Gov. in a deeply blue state?

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:30:12 PM UTC

Told you he was toast.

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by: andgarden @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:43:29 PM UTC

Looking that way

But then so were Kerry and McCain...

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:45:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And Hillary was a shoe-in

You get the picture.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:45:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not even close to the same thing

He MIGHT get a walk in the primary, but I would frankly expect at least someone to challenge him.  

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by: andgarden @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:51:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obviously

Point is never say never.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 20:53:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But

President Dewey disagrees.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 22:11:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Geez

This is like Frank Murkowski levels of support. Any chance Paterson declines to run for another term?

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Mon Mar 23, 2009 at 22:55:56 PM UTC

17% ?

David... how low can you go?

(any lower and you'll be in 3rd place behind Undecided)

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by: homerun @ Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 00:31:14 AM UTC

So what appointment can Paterson parachute to

...when he declines to run for re-election to graciously pave the way for Cuomo?  

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by: Egalitare @ Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 20:52:54 PM UTC

Co-ambassador to Antarctica

Along with Chris Dodd?

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 24, 2009 at 20:55:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]