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Jurassic Park IV, or Redistricting Pennsylvania

by: jeffmd

Sun Mar 22, 2009 at 4:17 PM EDT


(From the diaries with minor edits - promoted by DavidNYC)

As I'd promised in my diary on New Jersey, Pennsylvania would be the next state I'd tackle. This would  have been done a lot sooner, but those things called work and exams kind of got in the way....

My goal, flat out, was to carve more Democratic districts. I'm all for compactness when it comes to suitcases and mp3's, but not when I'm gerrymandering states. Again, I kept Democratic Congresscritters in their homes.

Unlike New Jersey though, Pennsylvania is probably maxed-out when it comes to Democrats (save Gerlach and Dent, whose districts are certainly Democratic.) Pennsylvania is also losing one seat (most likely) in 2010, so I drew 18 seats on 2008 population estimates. I didn't "merge" two districts per se, but more like took the 16th, 17th, and 19th and produced two districts from them.

I had the following goals in mind:

  • Dislodge Gerlach (6th) and Dent (15th) by increasing Democratic performance in their districts.

  • Give Dahlkemper (3rd), Altmire (4th), Murtha (12th), and Holden (17th) more favorable territory. They represent McCain districts now, I wanted to change those to Obama districts.

  • Maintain strength for Sestak (7th), Patrick Murphy (8th), Kanjorski (11th), and Schwartz (13th). They have decently strongly Democratic districts, which I wanted to maintain at their current levels.

  • Keep Brady (1st), Fattah (2nd), and Doyle (14th) in strongly Democratic districts, but perhaps not as absurdly strong as before. Obama scored 88%, 90%, and 70% respectively, I felt this could afford to be lowered somewhat. A corollary to this goal is keeping Fattah's district majority Black. I didn't bother with Brady's currently plurality Black district, though it may still be.

Here's the new map (click for full-size version):

Much more below the flip.
jeffmd :: Jurassic Park IV, or Redistricting Pennsylvania
Again, to start, I used this map of Obama's performance across the state, by municipality. As before, lightest shade is a margin of less than 5%, then 5 to 15, 15 to 25, 25 to 35, and the new uber-dark, which is a margin of 35+.

Going district by district, here's what we've got. As a sidenote, I didn't bother renumbering districts to make sense (which they don't right now). I think it's easier to keep core areas the same when numbering, since I think most of us automatically relate, for example, "PA-14" to Pittsburgh.

Summary statistics are: County, Population, Obama Votes, McCain Votes, Total Votes, Obama%, McCain%.

I'm going to go Northwest to Southeast, as opposed to in order by non-sensical district number. I think that makes the most sense.

3 689,046 169,632 139,373 314,100 54.01% 44.37%
Cameron 5,974 879 1,323 2,257 38.95% 58.62%
Centre 96,991 33,113 21,090 55,022 60.18% 38.33%
Clarion 11,906 2,701 2,626 5,432 49.72% 48.34%
Clearfield 38,795 7,372 7,835 15,582 47.31% 50.28%
Clinton 27,232 5,557 5,070 10,767 51.61% 47.09%
Crawford 88,880 16,780 20,750 38,134 44.00% 54.41%
Elk 32,914 7,290 6,676 14,361 50.76% 46.49%
Erie 279,255 75,775 50,351 127,691 59.34% 39.43%
Forest 4,946 1,038 1,366 2,468 42.06% 55.35%
McKean 20,003 3,579 3,628 7,370 48.56% 49.23%
Mercer 16,892 2,842 4,191 7,184 39.56% 58.34%
Venango 24,009 4,169 4,782 9,169 45.47% 52.15%
Warren 41,249 8,537 9,685 18,663 45.74% 51.89%

Sad to say, this district probably isn't much more gerrymandered than its current counterpart. It contains the entirety of Erie and Crawford counties in the northwest, and starts a slow march towards State College. I'd hate to leave those Democratic votes behind, and plus they're a good way to shore up Dahlkemper's district, which Obama lost by 17 votes. It takes in the Democratic parts of Centre and Clinton counties on the east end, with some arms into Clarion and Venango. I'd like to think I succeeded, since Obama scored 45% in the 3rd's part of Venango and 50% in Clarion, compared to 35% and 33% in the parts not in the 3rd. All in all, a 54% Obama district - a 6% increase from its current form.

4 689,397 182,724 168,763 356,152 51.31% 47.39%
Allegheny 389,960 110,152 102,177 214,148 51.44% 47.71%
Beaver 149,042 36,109 35,781 73,326 49.24% 48.80%
Lawrence 75,681 17,041 16,670 34,362 49.59% 48.51%
Mercer 74,714 19,422 14,135 34,316 56.60% 41.19%

Altmire is pretty much in the same boat as Dahlkemper, except with a district that Obama lost 44-55. There's no need to complicate this by including any parts of Butler County, so this district sticks along the Ohio, Beaver, and Shenango Rivers up from Pittsburgh (but not including) to Sharon, through Allegheny, Beaver, Lawrence, and Mercer counties. It's a point of pride for me that Obama won each county component. Specifically in Allegheny County, Altmire swaps out a bunch of Republican northern suburbs for friendlier stuff east of the city, notably Monroeville and Penn Hills. Obama scored 44% in the Allegheny portion of the old 4th, compard to 51% here. If Altmire didn't live in Republican-leaning McCandless, there could have perhaps been more improvement. Anyways, this works out to a 51% Obama district - an improvement of 7%.

18 689,231 136,738 218,177 359,372 38.05% 60.71%
Allegheny 127,747 30,252 41,789 72,634 41.65% 57.53%
Beaver 24,444 4,390 7,114 11,706 37.50% 60.77%
Butler 181,082 32,260 57,074 90,761 35.54% 62.88%
Greene 13,925 2,072 2,748 4,892 42.35% 56.17%
Lawrence 16,216 2,670 5,181 7,987 33.43% 64.87%
Mercer 25,909 4,147 8,239 12,668 32.74% 65.04%
Washington 82,349 18,019 27,503 46,141 39.05% 59.61%
Westmoreland 217,559 42,928 68,529 112,583 38.13% 60.87%

This district is what happens when you try to strip all the Republican territory out of the 3rd, 4th, and 12th districts and pack it together. Butler County has no place in a Democratic district, nor does the large chunk of Westmoreland County which is quickly trending away from us. Throw in some the northern Pittsburgh suburbs stripped out of Altmire's district and the core of Tim Murphy's old district, and you get this 38% - an 8% drop in Democratic performance.

14 688,540 227,685 124,055 355,158 64.11% 34.93%
Allegheny 688,540 227,685 124,055 355,158 64.11% 34.93%

The 14th doesn't change much - it keeps the entirety of the city of Pittsburgh and suburbs to the east like Swissvale and Doyle's home in Forest Hills. Instead of reaching southwest, the new 14th looks south to the southern Pittsburgh suburbs like Upper St. Clair and Bethel Park. Arguably, this district is actually more compact than the current 14th. No worries for Mike F. Doyle though, since Obama still won 55% in the non-Pittsburgh part of the district.  Combine that with the 75% Obama scored in the city, and you get a 64% Democratic district, a drop of 6%.

12 689,579 146,095 143,358 294,030 49.69% 48.76%
Allegheny 19,931 4,385 3,865 8,347 52.53% 46.30%
Armstrong 26,485 5,114 6,186 11,454 44.65% 54.01%
Cambria 131,716 29,955 28,623 59,705 50.17% 47.94%
Fayette 135,292 24,805 23,726 49,108 50.51% 48.31%
Greene 25,794 5,757 5,141 11,084 51.94% 46.38%
Indiana 55,368 12,477 12,254 25,068 49.77% 48.88%
Somerset 26,108 5,709 6,599 12,656 45.11% 52.14%
Washington 122,958 28,100 23,199 52,318 53.71% 44.34%
Westmoreland 145,927 29,793 33,765 64,290 46.34% 52.52%

It's no secret Obama didn't do all that hot in Southwest PA, and it's painfully obvious here. Kerry won the old 12th, which Obama lost by about 1,000 votes. Trying to create an Obama district required some creative districting and ends up being more like connect-the-dots between traditionally Democratic Fayette and Greene counties, Johnstown (Murtha's residence), Washington, the college town of Indiana, and Lower Burrell in Westmoreland. The old 12th pretty much packed all the Democratic votes in the area, so the increased population requirement really made me stretch. I think again, I have a strong case for this being more compact than the old 12th. Either way, it's a slight improvement to a district Obama won by 3,000 votes, an improvement of 0.5%.

9 689,087 102,284 191,267 298,149 34.31% 64.15%
Adams 5,926 1,018 1,671 2,739 37.17% 61.01%
Armstrong 42,940 6,024 12,356 18,627 32.34% 66.33%
Bedford 49,650 6,059 16,124 22,508 26.92% 71.64%
Blair 125,593 19,813 32,708 53,298 37.17% 61.37%
Cambria 14,271 2,496 3,372 5,965 41.84% 56.53%
Clarion 28,186 4,045 8,111 12,435 32.53% 65.23%
Clearfield 33,268 5,672 8,599 14,588 38.88% 58.95%
Cumberland 19,402 3,428 4,426 7,976 42.98% 55.49%
Fayette 9,667 1,090 2,054 3,172 34.36% 64.75%
Franklin 139,459 21,169 41,906 63,641 33.26% 65.85%
Fulton 14,261 1,576 4,642 6,306 24.99% 73.61%
Huntingdon 45,552 6,621 11,745 18,730 35.35% 62.71%
Indiana 32,520 4,588 7,473 12,236 37.50% 61.07%
Jefferson 45,151 6,447 12,057 18,904 34.10% 63.78%
Somerset 52,087 7,169 15,087 22,712 31.56% 66.43%
Venango 31,154 5,069 8,936 14,312 35.42% 62.44%

Moving into the 'T' now, this is the first of two extremely Republican districts. Arguably, there are two population centers, one in Altoona in Blair County and the other in Chambersburg in Franklin. From there, it moves northwest, picking up the parts of Somerset, Cambria, Indiana, and Armstrong not packed into Murtha's 12th, and then the parts of Venango and Clarion not in Dahlkemper's 3rd. At 34% Obama, this is the most Republican district in Pennsylvania and a 1% drop from the current 9th.

5 689,043 114,992 195,836 315,767 36.42% 62.02%
Berks 9,899 993 2,312 3,366 29.50% 68.69%
Centre 46,567 8,837 11,902 21,089 41.90% 56.44%
Clearfield 9,696 1,511 2,228 3,839 39.36% 58.04%
Clinton 10,002 1,540 2,434 4,024 38.27% 60.49%
Cumberland 199,164 43,028 57,531 102,130 42.13% 56.33%
Dauphin 43,419 8,423 15,149 23,834 35.34% 63.56%
Juniata 23,163 3,068 6,484 9,819 31.25% 66.04%
Lebanon 53,875 9,202 16,904 26,528 34.69% 63.72%
Lycoming 49,426 7,076 15,691 23,131 30.59% 67.84%
McKean 23,852 2,886 5,596 8,645 33.38% 64.73%
Mifflin 46,609 5,375 10,929 16,502 32.57% 66.23%
Montour 3,868 590 1,167 1,771 33.31% 65.89%
Northumberland 22,909 3,245 6,360 9,734 33.34% 65.34%
Perry 44,850 6,396 13,058 19,745 32.39% 66.13%
Potter 18,080 2,300 5,109 7,583 30.33% 67.37%
Schuylkill 10,533 1,776 3,294 5,139 34.56% 64.10%
Snyder 23,134 2,499 6,442 9,069 27.56% 71.03%
Tioga 24,641 3,610 7,527 11,305 31.93% 66.58%
Union 25,356 2,637 5,719 8,514 30.97% 67.17%

The is the other Republican district taking in a large chunk of the T. More packing of Republicans here, as this district on the east side swaps many tentacles with Chris Carney's new 10th district. Any pockets of even-remotely Democratic friendliness are pulled out, including Williamsport and Sunbury. What's left is expansive Republican space, centered in Cumberland County moving north towards the Northern Tier. At 36% Obama, this is a drop of 8%.

10 688,967 134,946 156,456 296,409 45.53% 52.78%
Berks 8,704 1,724 2,167 3,995 43.15% 54.24%
Bradford 61,626 10,306 15,057 25,884 39.82% 58.17%
Columbia 64,663 13,019 14,255 27,838 46.77% 51.21%
Dauphin 5,728 823 1,231 2,073 39.70% 59.38%
Lackawanna 44,778 13,784 10,806 24,913 55.33% 43.37%
Luzerne 11,637 2,044 3,020 5,153 39.67% 58.61%
Lycoming 67,880 11,305 14,589 26,316 42.96% 55.44%
Montour 14,368 2,757 3,388 6,216 44.35% 54.50%
Northumberland 68,307 11,083 12,655 24,201 45.80% 52.29%
Pike 57,102 11,493 12,519 24,285 47.33% 51.55%
Schuylkill 108,170 20,758 23,247 44,766 46.37% 51.93%
Snyder 14,849 2,883 3,458 6,410 44.98% 53.95%
Sullivan 6,556 1,233 1,841 3,131 39.38% 58.80%
Susquehanna 41,388 8,381 10,633 19,383 43.24% 54.86%
Tioga 16,194 2,780 3,799 6,679 41.62% 56.88%
Union 17,997 4,696 4,140 8,961 52.40% 46.20%
Wayne 51,139 9,892 12,702 22,932 43.14% 55.39%
Wyoming 27,881 5,985 6,949 13,273 45.09% 52.35%

You can't win all of them, and this is the one district that wasn't to my liking. I really wanted to protect Carney a bit more, but the territory simply wasn't there to do that and protect the Democratic strength of Kanjorski's 11th. I chose to hedge a bit and to keep the 11th strongly Democratic. It might be a waste to protect Kanjorski like that, but he's got to retire eventually and we can definitely get a good Democrat out of Scranton. Thus, this district starts in Wayne and Pike counties, before moving through Susquehanna (Carney lives in Dimock) and northern Lackawanna counties. Lycoming County outside of Williamsport is stripped out as much as possible, and it gains Columbia County and a large chunk of Schuylkill County freed up from Holden's 17th. Surprisingly, I still managed a gain of 0.5% to 45.5% Obama. Carney should be fine here regardless.

11 689,582 177,101 128,039 309,934 57.14% 41.31%
Carbon 62,326 13,464 12,957 27,050 49.77% 47.90%
Lackawanna 164,442 53,736 28,682 83,626 64.26% 34.30%
Luzerne 300,203 70,448 58,107 130,815 53.85% 44.42%
Monroe 162,611 39,453 28,293 68,443 57.64% 41.34%

Kanjorski was probably saved in 2008 by Obama's coattails, and shoring up the 11th was one of my major goals. Surprisingly, this actually becomes more compact, too, it seems. What we get is a district centered on the Lackawanna Valley. 43% of this district is Wilkes-Barre and Luzerne County, and another 23% each for Scranton/Lackawanna County and Monroe County. All in all, a 57% Obama district, up 0.3% from the old 11th. Also a rare victory for compactness.

17 689,314 176,601 148,808 329,673 53.57% 45.14%
Berks 52,440 11,062 13,461 24,959 44.32% 53.93%
Cumberland 6,969 1,850 1,782 3,719 49.74% 47.92%
Dauphin 199,854 59,866 40,264 101,138 59.19% 39.81%
Lancaster 229,139 60,406 52,477 114,386 52.81% 45.88%
Lebanon 72,551 14,108 17,410 32,035 44.04% 54.35%
Schuylkill 28,135 5,938 7,418 13,522 43.91% 54.86%
York 100,226 23,371 15,996 39,914 58.55% 40.08%

Connect the dots version 2.0 here, as we string together the cities of York, Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Tim Holden's home in St. Clair in Schuylkill County, all of which are strongly Democratic. They're counterbalanced by the Republican outlying portions of York, Dauphin, and Lancaster counties, though. However, 59% Obama performances in the 17th's parts of Dauphin and York and a 53% showing in Lancaster anchor this 54% Obama district on balance, an improvement of 6% from the current 17th.

16 688,715 118,510 197,429 320,910 36.93% 61.52%
Adams 93,986 16,615 24,678 41,924 39.63% 58.86%
Berks 9,821 2,245 3,260 5,596 40.12% 58.26%
Chester 1,059 243 552 806 30.15% 68.49%
Dauphin 5,275 759 1,576 2,362 32.13% 66.72%
Lancaster 264,774 39,180 74,091 114,863 34.11% 64.50%
York 313,800 59,468 93,272 155,359 38.28% 60.04%

This is what remains of the old 16th and 19th districts once the Democratic cities are stripped out. There's really not much to say about this district based in York and Lancaster, except that it's the last "Republican" district we have to talk about, it only gets better from here. At 37% Obama, it's a drop of 6% from the old 19th and 10% from the old 16th - which was intentional, of course.

15 688,754 177,367 136,903 318,961 55.61% 42.92%
Berks 65,559 15,023 14,970 30,535 49.20% 49.03%
Lehigh 333,423 87,089 63,382 152,473 57.12% 41.57%
Northampton 289,772 75,255 58,551 135,953 55.35% 43.07%

Starting with the Lehigh Valley, the 15th continues to have the entirety of Northampton County. Lehigh County did have a bite taken out of it by the old pterodactyl of the 6th, but the Lehigh in its entirety stays here too. Instead of reaching into MontCo with two rods hugging the MontCo-Berks and MontCo-BucksCo line, it goes for Bucks County instead. At 56% Obama, this is a slight improvement. Charlie Dent should be gone as soon as we get a good challenger anyway.

Southeast PA is definitely (in my mind, anyway), the coup de grace of this map. Here's an inset of that:

Each district is colored by county component: all greens are the 6th or 8th, blues are the 7th or 13th, red is the 1st, and yellow is the 2nd.

First, the boring stuff (i.e. the 1st and 2nd):

1 689,174 266,010 78,010 347,098 76.64% 22.47%
Delaware 208,267 65,596 42,719 109,675 59.81% 38.95%
Philadelphia 480,907 200,414 35,291 237,423 84.41% 14.86%

Bob Brady's district remains anchored in South Philly with an arm into Delaware County. The composition of this arm, however, is significantly different. Brady swaps with Sestak some cities (notably strongly-Democratic Chester city) for some Republican leaning parts of the Main Line. Brady's old 1st had a 89% Democratic section of DelCo, the new 1st has a 60% Democratic section. This lowers Democratic performance by about 11%, down to 77%. Brady need not be concerned.

2 688,659 303,286 34,983 339,990 89.20% 10.29%
Philadelphia 688,659 303,286 34,983 339,990 89.20% 10.29%

No significant changes for Chaka Fattah. His district still contains most of West Philly. Cheltenham in MontCo is removed, substituted for an arm into Northeast Philly. The changes aren't all that significant, the district is only down 0.85% in Obama performance.

8 686,233 199,224 162,328 365,625 54.49% 44.40%
Bucks 619,093 179,031 150,248 332,924 53.78% 45.13%
Montgomery 27,576 7,460 5,533 13,168 56.65% 42.02%
Philadelphia 39,564 12,733 6,547 19,533 65.19% 33.52%

Consistent with tradition, Bucks County remains in the 8th in its entirety. The old 8th had an odd-looking protrusion into MontCo (where Obama got 63%), and took a section of Northeast Philly where Obama barely edged McCain with 49%. We flip the roles here, instead taking Wards 41 and 65 of the city, where Obama got 65%. We also take a few municipalities (funnily, Hatfield Twp, Hatfield Boro, and Hatboro Boro) in MontCo, where Obama got 57%. Overall, Obama got 54.5%, up 0.5%.

13 688,902 224,312 140,834 368,302 60.90% 38.24%
Montgomery 443,652 144,765 100,434 247,223 58.56% 40.62%
Philadelphia 245,250 79,547 40,400 121,079 65.70% 33.37%

The 13th remains a MontCo-Philly hybrid. It takes in more of MontCo now, consistent with the increased population constraint, reaching all the way to the Berks County Line. Instead of reaching through the city, the new 13th no longer touches the Delaware River, stopping short by grabbing Northeast Philly taken from the 8th. Centered in Abingdon (it's the largest municipality), the new 13th's section of MontCo is 59% Obama, up from 57%, and the new 13th's section of Philly is 66% Obama, up from 60%. Together, this makes for a 61% Obama district, up from 58%.

7 689,283 219,653 154,096 377,651 58.16% 40.80%
Chester 211,997 66,693 57,071 125,146 53.29% 45.60%
Delaware 345,246 113,274 72,554 187,835 60.31% 38.63%
Montgomery 132,040 39,686 24,471 64,670 61.37% 37.84%

The new 7th stays composed of ChesCo, DelCo, and MontCo. Since more of DelCo is given to Brady's 1st, this district becomes more Chester County heavy, reaching further north and west into the county. It, incidentally, takes Jim Gerlach's home in West Pikeland Township here. Even so, the new ChesCo portion is 53% Obama, up from 50%. The DelCo section gets a healthy boost from the city of Chester while keeping in Radnor, Haverford, and Upper Darby along the Main Line. The New DelCo section is 60% Obama, up from 56%. The MontCo part remains mostly the same, taking in Norristown, Upper Merion, and Lower and Upper Providence Townships. Combined, this is a 58% Obama district, up 2.5%.

6 688,652 198,024 136,472 338,576 58.49% 40.31%
Berks 251,731 66,000 44,343 112,060 58.90% 39.57%
Chester 265,765 70,897 56,798 129,300 54.83% 43.93%
Montgomery 171,156 61,127 35,331 97,216 62.88% 36.34%

My favorite district. The pterodactyl is back (hence the title, get it?), and it's leaner and meaner (to Republicans, anyway). The body remains majority Chester, but it swaps out a large swath of eastern ChesCo for townships along the Lancaster County line freed up from the 16th. It still, however, keeps Democratic centers in Downington and Coatesville, and adds West Chester proper, which was gerrymandered into the 16th before. Obama performed roughly the same in the old and new Chester part.

As before, the left wing reaches into Berks County, but before, Reading was cracked three ways between the 6th, 16th, and 17th. Now, Reading and its 81% Obama goodness are kept whole in this district, raising Obama's performance in Berks from 54% to 59%. The right arm is still my favorite. Originally, Republicans conceived of this as a way to crack MontCo into two Republican (PA-06, PA-07) and one swing district (PA-13). This is best termed, I think, an EPIC FAIL. The old right arm was 64% Obama, and this new version is 63%. I maintained the anchor in Lower Merion Township and Narberth, since their combined 71% Obama goodness is just too good to give up. Combined, this raises Obama's performance here by another 1% to 58.5%.

So there you have it, a new, 18-seat map for Pennsylvania. Comments? Questions? Which state should I do next? Please share what you think the districts look like, also!
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Jurassic Park IV, or Redistricting Pennsylvania | 48 comments
You obviously put lots of time and work
into this very interesting map, but I do have a few considerations. First. Democrats are not going to get the map they want, and in all probability there will be a Democrat drawn together with a Republican, as a compromise. I would expect Altmire to face Tim Murphy in a fair fight district. That's unless Murtha retires, in which case the 12th disappears and everyone else is made safe.

The other point I would make is that the 13th really doesn't make any sense. NE Philly and suburban Montco just don't go well together, and as currently drawn, the 13th is one of the most outrageous districts in PA. The Republicans envisioned that the Democratic primary would be brutal, and a relatively moderate Republican would win by default. Probably the 8th, the 13th, the 1st, and the 2nd would look a bit different under the actual map.

I do like what you've done with the 10th, and I think that's probably the best that can be done. However, there's an argument that the Democratic parts of Centre county should be in the 10th instead of the 3rd.

Overall a good perspective. Thanks.

Interesting
Due to Western PA losing population and becoming more Republican, it's difficult to imagine how we keep 4 D districts there. I appreciate your plan. Extending PA-03 into Center County is an interesting idea. It looks like if you sacrifice the Murtha district then you could make a D district west of Pittsburgh (Altmire) and a R district east of Pittsburgh (T Murphy).
The "rural North" is slowly trending D. I think the Northern Tier of PA will trend D in the next decade, just like Upstate NY did, and Vermont before it. It might make sense to anticipate this trend by trading northern 5 for southern 10.
I live in Baltimore and I think within the next decade there will be a commuter train from Baltimore to York, and maybe even to Harrisburg. This would make York and Dauphin counties much more liberal, so it might backfire to doom PA-16 into a strongly-R district. In PA-17, Tim Holden keeps getting reelected easily in its current form, so there is no need to radically change its shape. It might be better for our long term prospects to keep the cities of York and Lancaster in PA-16.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
long term trends in PA
Then is this a general trend in Mid-Atlantic states, do you think?  It'd align pretty neatly with my own nascent ideas on explaining shifts in the Northeast - what I suppose you could call the "New Englandization" of New York and Pennsylvania, or the way that Pennsylvania at least seems to be shedding its Rust Belt voting record for a more Mid-Atlantic tradition along the lines of Maryland or New Jersey.
It'd make Centre County and all the rest of those four pro-Obama islands in the middle of so-called "Pennsyltucky" make a whole lot more sense to a way-out Texan like me, at least.  Wouldn't that be nice, though: a likely- or leaning-Democratic East Coast, from Eastport to Key West?
[ Parent ]
Good work
My biggest qualm is that I'm not sure that the 18th would hold up in court.
This whole map is pretty egregiously gerrymandered, but it's not much worse (and in a lot of ways better) than the current one. Especially good work with getting Tim Murphy into a Dem-leaning district; it isn't easy.
Ultimately, though, we're probably looking at a bipartisan incumbent protection map. Hopefully we win Gerlach's district this cycle, so that'll get beefed up, and maybe in balance to that we have to make Dent's district more Republican (maybe that can help to shore up Kanjorski and Carney somehow?).

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
Well done
Between you, me, and BigTentProgressive, this must be Redistricting Day at SSP. One nit, though, about Pennsylvania: the Democrats won't be running redistricting there in 2011-12. The State Senate is safely in GOP grasp; it's almost impossible to imagine the Dems winning it in 2010 while simultaneously holding the open governor's mansion and their precarious majority in the State House. A GOP gerrymander is actually more likely; but odds are power will be split, so incumbent protection will be the name of the game.

Western PA has been hemorrhaging population and should be the site of the lost district. The unlucky Rep. may be Tim Murphy (R), John Murtha (D), or Jason Altmire (D). Since Western PA is maxed-out on Democrats, and Murtha has extraordinary influence, I'd bet Altmire is left sitting in the wrong musical chair.

I drew a Pennsylvania map that involved Murphy vs. Altmire, with Murphy favored, because that's the scenario I see as likeliest. Meanwhile, potentially vulnerable incumbents like Dahlkemper, Gerlach, Dent, and Carney will be shored-up.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

I think you're right
Do we get to see your PA map?
[ Parent ]
Yep, soon
I just did Georgia and New Jersey today. Next will be Florida and Louisiana, then Pennsylvania and Utah, then Arizona and New York. Can't guarantee when exactly, though.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
[ Parent ]
GA and NJ should be front page as well
IMO...
[ Parent ]
For sure on redistricting day.
I wasn't going for reality; for me, I just want to see what's possible as opposed to what may actually happen.

Constrained optimization ftw.

I've loved your maps so far, and can't want to see what's coming down the road.

[ Parent ]
I was about to post my
MN-redistricting but then figured, I can wait till next weekend when I wont have so much competition!  And now I feel like going back and really gerrymandering the shit out of it, I did mine with gerrymandering and practicality in mind.
[ Parent ]
Great work
My only request would be to change the district's colors to correspond to the map of municipalities (i.e. likelihood of a Democratic/ Republican winning district based on Obama-McCain numbers).  
And for you...

[ Parent ]
I would beg to differ on 4, 12, 10, and 17
4 and 12 are intrinsically more Democratic than they seem. 10 and 17 more Republican.
[ Parent ]
Eh, I'm a numbers guy.
This is by presidential margin using a weighted average.

Holistically, I'd probably also make PA-06 and PA-15 a lighter shade of blue, as they're, like you say, 'intrinsically' more Republican.

[ Parent ]
Not to mention the 7th and the 8th
But seriously, the Republicans have no bench in the 12th. It would take a Republican tsunami (or a really liberal Democratic nominee) for them to win it.  
[ Parent ]
Wow thanks
I've been really impressed with the response of people here to my rather random requests (first the map of new congressional districts by prez now this). Thanks!
[ Parent ]
One other thing I'd be interested in
is to see the Gore/Bush and Kerry/Bush numbers in these districts. More work, I know. . .
By request:
District County Pop. Obama% McCain% Kerry% Bush%
1 689,174 76.64% 22.47% 74.18% 25.42%
Delaware 208,267 59.81% 38.95% 58.04% 41.44%
Philadelphia 480,907 84.41% 14.86% 82.19% 17.47%
2 688,659 89.20% 10.29% 85.94% 13.76%
Philadelphia 688,659 89.20% 10.29% 85.94% 13.76%
3 689,046 54.01% 44.37% 48.70% 50.46%
Cameron 5,974 38.95% 58.62% 33.00% 66.46%
Centre 96,991 60.18% 38.33% 53.04% 46.07%
Clarion 11,906 49.72% 48.34% 41.18% 58.34%
Clearfield 38,795 47.31% 50.28% 44.26% 55.06%
Clinton 27,232 51.61% 47.09% 45.38% 53.82%
Crawford 88,880 44.00% 54.41% 41.77% 57.29%
Elk 32,914 50.76% 46.49% 45.28% 53.99%
Erie 279,255 59.34% 39.43% 53.93% 45.58%
Forest 4,946 42.06% 55.35% 38.35% 60.92%
McKean 20,003 48.56% 49.23% 42.90% 56.09%
Mercer 16,892 39.56% 58.34% 35.49% 59.08%
Venango 24,009 45.47% 52.15% 43.57% 55.61%
Warren 41,249 45.74% 51.89% 41.72% 56.99%
4 689,397 51.31% 47.39% 51.61% 47.02%
Allegheny 389,960 51.44% 47.71% 50.93% 48.34%
Beaver 149,042 49.24% 48.80% 52.77% 46.65%
Lawrence 75,681 49.59% 48.51% 52.76% 46.96%
Mercer 74,714 56.60% 41.19% 52.25% 39.68%
5 689,043 36.42% 62.02% 31.50% 67.77%
Berks 9,899 29.50% 68.69% 26.44% 72.74%
Centre 46,567 41.90% 56.44% 36.33% 63.06%
Clearfield 9,696 39.36% 58.04% 34.48% 64.66%
Clinton 10,002 38.27% 60.49% 32.48% 66.65%
Cumberland 199,164 42.13% 56.33% 35.70% 63.63%
Dauphin 43,419 35.34% 63.56% 29.29% 70.20%
Juniata 23,163 31.25% 66.04% 27.93% 71.34%
Lebanon 53,875 34.69% 63.72% 28.83% 70.37%
Lycoming 49,426 30.59% 67.84% 30.51% 68.61%
McKean 23,852 33.38% 64.73% 30.42% 68.27%
Mifflin 46,609 32.57% 66.23% 29.08% 69.75%
Montour 3,868 33.31% 65.89% 28.68% 70.33%
Northumberland 22,909 33.34% 65.34% 29.20% 70.19%
Perry 44,850 32.39% 66.13% 27.91% 71.65%
Potter 18,080 30.33% 67.37% 28.39% 70.60%
Schuylkill 10,533 34.56% 64.10% 31.79% 67.55%
Snyder 23,134 27.56% 71.03% 22.82% 76.68%
Tioga 24,641 31.93% 66.58% 29.00% 70.12%
Union 25,356 30.97% 67.17% 25.94% 73.41%
6 688,652 58.49% 40.31% 51.99% 47.41%
Berks 251,731 58.90% 39.57% 50.81% 48.45%
Chester 265,765 54.83% 43.93% 47.75% 51.64%
Montgomery 171,156 62.88% 36.34% 58.51% 41.07%
7 689,283 58.16% 40.80% 53.68% 45.79%
Chester 211,997 53.29% 45.60% 47.32% 52.12%
Delaware 345,246 60.31% 38.63% 56.84% 42.61%
Montgomery 132,040 61.37% 37.84% 56.72% 42.80%
8 686,233 54.49% 44.40% 51.86% 47.55%
Bucks 619,093 53.78% 45.13% 51.10% 48.30%
Montgomery 27,576 56.65% 42.02% 50.11% 49.37%
Philadelphia 39,564 65.19% 33.52% 65.08% 34.54%
9 689,087 34.31% 64.15% 31.49% 67.91%
Adams 5,926 37.17% 61.01% 33.00% 66.65%
Armstrong 42,940 32.34% 66.33% 33.13% 66.40%
Bedford 49,650 26.92% 71.64% 26.52% 73.23%
Blair 125,593 37.17% 61.37% 33.42% 65.92%
Cambria 14,271 41.84% 56.53% 42.11% 57.18%
Clarion 28,186 32.53% 65.23% 33.16% 66.43%
Clearfield 33,268 38.88% 58.95% 35.52% 63.91%
Cumberland 19,402 42.98% 55.49% 32.37% 67.06%
Fayette 9,667 34.36% 64.75% 32.39% 65.75%
Franklin 139,459 33.26% 65.85% 28.17% 71.13%
Fulton 14,261 24.99% 73.61% 23.50% 76.11%
Huntingdon 45,552 35.35% 62.71% 32.43% 66.89%
Indiana 32,520 37.50% 61.07% 37.59% 62.03%
Jefferson 45,151 34.10% 63.78% 31.00% 68.25%
Somerset 52,087 31.56% 66.43% 28.82% 70.72%
Venango 31,154 35.42% 62.44% 34.49% 64.71%
10 688,967 45.53% 52.78% 40.50% 58.63%
Berks 8,704 43.15% 54.24% 36.42% 62.32%
Bradford 61,626 39.82% 58.17% 33.45% 65.98%
Columbia 64,663 46.77% 51.21% 39.67% 59.58%
Dauphin 5,728 39.70% 59.38% 36.26% 63.12%
Lackawanna 44,778 55.33% 43.37% 48.20% 50.42%
Luzerne 11,637 39.67% 58.61% 36.21% 62.55%
Lycoming 67,880 42.96% 55.44% 35.74% 63.43%
Montour 14,368 44.35% 54.50% 36.59% 62.56%
Northumberland 68,307 45.80% 52.29% 43.13% 56.09%
Pike 57,102 47.33% 51.55% 40.42% 58.11%
Schuylkill 108,170 46.37% 51.93% 47.07% 52.16%
Snyder 14,849 44.98% 53.95% 38.41% 61.07%
Sullivan 6,556 39.38% 58.80% 36.85% 62.45%
Susquehanna 41,388 43.24% 54.86% 38.56% 60.71%
Tioga 16,194 41.62% 56.88% 34.35% 64.82%
Union 17,997 52.40% 46.20% 45.61% 53.78%
Wayne 51,139 43.14% 55.39% 36.67% 62.38%
Wyoming 27,881 45.09% 52.35% 38.75% 60.53%
11 689,582 57.14% 41.31% 53.05% 45.83%
Carbon 62,326 49.77% 47.90% 48.82% 49.96%
Lackawanna 164,442 64.26% 34.30% 58.86% 39.72%
Luzerne 300,203 53.85% 44.42% 51.73% 47.17%
Monroe 162,611 57.64% 41.34% 49.64% 49.65%
12 689,579 49.69% 48.76% 51.75% 47.69%
Allegheny 19,931 52.53% 46.30% 57.03% 42.39%
Armstrong 26,485 44.65% 54.01% 47.64% 51.88%
Cambria 131,716 50.17% 47.94% 49.30% 50.21%
Fayette 135,292 50.51% 48.31% 54.65% 44.41%
Greene 25,794 51.94% 46.38% 53.06% 46.24%
Indiana 55,368 49.77% 48.88% 47.69% 51.83%
Somerset 26,108 45.11% 52.14% 45.71% 53.71%
Washington 122,958 53.71% 44.34% 57.71% 41.96%
Westmoreland 145,927 46.34% 52.52% 49.65% 49.84%
13 688,902 60.90% 38.24% 58.11% 41.47%
Montgomery 443,652 58.56% 40.62% 54.48% 45.07%
Philadelphia 245,250 65.70% 33.37% 65.13% 34.49%
14 688,540 64.11% 34.93% 63.67% 35.59%
Allegheny 688,540 64.11% 34.93% 63.67% 35.59%
15 688,754 55.61% 42.92% 49.71% 49.35%
Berks 65,559 49.20% 49.03% 42.32% 56.81%
Lehigh 333,423 57.12% 41.57% 50.84% 48.42%
Northampton 289,772 55.35% 43.07% 50.01% 48.81%
16 688,715 36.93% 61.52% 29.77% 69.54%
Adams 93,986 39.63% 58.86% 32.50% 66.93%
Berks 9,821 40.12% 58.26% 35.60% 63.52%
Chester 1,059 30.15% 68.49% 26.38% 73.50%
Dauphin 5,275 32.13% 66.72% 28.28% 71.21%
Lancaster 264,774 34.11% 64.50% 25.68% 73.62%
York 313,800 38.28% 60.04% 32.14% 67.13%
17 689,314 53.57% 45.14% 44.19% 55.14%
Berks 52,440 44.32% 53.93% 37.92% 61.42%
Cumberland 6,969 49.74% 47.92% 41.12% 58.08%
Dauphin 199,854 59.19% 39.81% 50.13% 49.37%
Lancaster 229,139 52.81% 45.88% 41.65% 57.64%
Lebanon 72,551 44.04% 54.35% 35.57% 63.45%
Schuylkill 28,135 43.91% 54.86% 41.41% 57.87%
York 100,226 58.55% 40.08% 48.73% 50.58%
18 689,231 38.05% 60.71% 39.04% 60.26%
Allegheny 127,747 41.65% 57.53% 43.14% 56.25%
Beaver 24,444 37.50% 60.77% 40.21% 59.19%
Butler 181,082 35.54% 62.88% 35.31% 64.19%
Greene 13,925 42.35% 56.17% 40.41% 58.96%
Lawrence 16,216 33.43% 64.87% 33.63% 66.15%
Mercer 25,909 32.74% 65.04% 30.68% 63.35%
Washington 82,349 39.05% 59.61% 40.98% 58.73%
Westmoreland 217,559 38.13% 60.87% 39.84% 59.64%
Grand Total 12,400,158 54.53% 44.21% 50.89% 48.40%

First two percentages are Obama-McCain, then Kerry-Bush.

[ Parent ]
Excellent, thanks
By my count, Kerry wins 11/18. Not bad.  
[ Parent ]
Another great article!

I love me a good redistricting map, and yours beat mine hands down! (I took a look at MapWindows, and good lord, it looks like an incredibly powerful program.  I gotta learn how to use it - no more tinkering in Paint.NET for me!)

Hmm... PA-04 looks like a seahorse to me, and PA-03 could be a dragon/crocodile to put the Egyptian god Sobek to shame.

I do have one question, as a complete novice to Pennsylvania demographics: Centre, Dauphin, Elk, and Cambria counties went to Obama, but before that seemed like fairly typical Republican counties.  Any idea of what caused the shift, and how much it'll extend down-ticket?

As for the state I think you should do next, I gotta admit I'd love to be put to shame on Texas, but I couldn't possibly blame you if you deferred for a smaller state.  That, and the State Demographer for Texas does have a website with shapefiles - but it's all quite impenetrable to me, so I don't know if they provide sufficiently tiered data for you.


Thanks for the heads up on Texas.
I haven't found the website with shapefiles yet, but I did find a website with VTD populations (essentially precinct populations). Can you link me?

As to your question - Cambria is traditionally Democratic, it's major population center is Johnstown. Centre and Dauphin's shift I think are attributable to a bit of Obama and long-term changes. Centre has State College, and student votes undoubtedly helped propel Obama ahead there. Dauphin has a sizeable African-American population (18% of the county, 55% of the city of Harrisburg), which I'd wager turned out more so than usual. However, I think Dauphin, especially, is suburbanizing, which always helps.

As to Elk County...you've got me there. I have no idea. It's not a particularly large county, and it's not really in the sphere of any large population centers: http://www.commoncensus.org/ma... it seems to be split roughly between Buffalo and Pittsburgh based on commoncensus. Maybe some Pennsylvanians can enlighten us?

[ Parent ]
Not a problem...
...although now that you say you've found a website with VTDs, I worry that we found the same website, but I mistook what I found for something else out of ignorance.  Well, it's worth a shot, I suppose, so here's the link: http://txsdc.utsa.edu/txdata/s...
[ Parent ]
And thanks for the explanation re: Central PA
Very helpful, and the commoncensus link is fascinating!
[ Parent ]
Elk County
My mother-in-law is St. Marys, the county seat whose apostrophe was confiscated by the U.S. Postal Service. Elk County was a mining county with a large Eastern European Catholic population and a labor tradition. It's got more in common, demographically, with parts of northeastern Pennsylvania than the more Appalachian Northern Tier where it is located.  
[ Parent ]
"from" St. Marys! (n/t)

[ Parent ]
Thanks!
It wasn't the end of the world not knowing, but it did bother me every time I looked at a map with Pennsylvania on it.  Man am I a political junkie...
[ Parent ]
About those VTD populations...
Would you mind linking me also?  Actually, from your experience would it be theoretically possible, if incredibly cumbersome, to take a stab at redistricting with just VTD map and populations in hand, and maybe 2008 population estimates for reference?  (If so I think I might give it a shot, and do the mother of all upgrades on my current map)
[ Parent ]
One little quibble
One thing that has always bugged me about PA's districts (aside from resembling Picasso on crack) is that there is little logic in their numbering scheme. CD-1 and CD-2 are in the Philly area, and one jumps to the other end of the state to find CD-3, CD-4, and CD-5. Would it be possible to find a more logical numbering of the districts?
The 3rd used to be NE Philly
Until the city lost a district. Then the 21st (Erie) became the 3rd.

Most of the rest of the others have been as they are for ages.  

[ Parent ]
the nxt one
as a citizen of mass, id love to see ur 9 district commonwealth plan. also a 34-36 plan texas, a 6 plan louisiana and a 9 plan arizona nxt. just my 2 cents tho

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma
This is awesome
My choice for your next map would be, of course, New York. I think it's a good choice because we actually COULD potentially do a "Dem-max" map, assuming we hold on to the state senate and our best brawlers are ready to fight.

I assume we nuke Peter King no matter what. The question then is (as Trapper John recently put it to me), do we go for broke trying to get rid of Lee and McHugh, or do we safely get rid of Lee and turn McHugh's district into something much redder?

I'm skeptical that Lee could so easily
be removed, given the fairly weak/untested Dems around him, and the fact that NY will probably lose at least one seat. McHugh would likely win any district you could draw him, if I understand his popularity correctly.

I think the primary goal has to be to consolidate previous Democratic gains. Avoiding a dummymander might even require sacrificing a Democrat.  

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure on McHugh
Ya, he seems to be pretty popular, but he's the only New York Republican left in Congress who has not drawn anything remotely close to a top-tier challenger in recent history.  
[ Parent ]
Go for Broke
McHugh will be popular no matter what, but he's climbing the age ladder and, as it is, his district is almost, if not already, a D leaning one (generically).  Make it much redder and his successor MIGHT be an R.  Make it status quo or even slightly bluer (by shedding the reddish southern ends to Tonko?) and all his base belongs to us.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Good work
But wouldn't it have made more sense to draw a compromise map than a Dem gerrymander?  There's at best a 5-10% chance we take the state Senate in 2010.  We're headed towards a compromise.
Jeff explained his reasoning
Here.
[ Parent ]
PA-16 moved incredibly fast in 2008
If that momentum keeps up, it'll be out under Pitts' feet within a couple of cycles. I'd take the risk with a few other seats and take the chance that we might be able to compete there soon enough.
Competing in Lancaster?
Does. Not. Compute.

Not yet, anyway. . .

[ Parent ]
Doesn't compute
Oh, having Lancaster doesn't compute alright, but it's happening.  But if the choice is Gerlach or chasing after Pitts, we have to oust Gerlach (and Lancaster may swing back).  Actually, even though it's West PA, the man I want to see bite it is Tim Murphy.  PA-18 isn't bad, as it is.  That's the only flaw in the map, but it might not be avoidable if we want to keep Altimre and Dahlkemper safe.  How weakly could we dilute Doyle before we run into danger.  Enough to really hurt Murphy?  Doyle's too moderate for his district, anyway. Alleghany County alone would more likely be a district that a guy like Doyle's predecessor William Coyne would have wanted.  The GOP pitted the two together in 2002 in attempt to screw us.  Even though most of the liberal Coyne's old district remained, he retired instead of Doyle.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Wow.
   Great maps.  I noticed you would put me into Bob Brady's district!  Having white suburban Delaware county represented by Bob Brady would be funny.  

24, Male, GA-05
Changes I'd make...
I'd leave NE Philly in Murphy's district...it's a good stash of votes for him, and I'd say we're much more at risk of Bucks moving back to the R's than any part of Schwartz's district. It was the ultimate swing district at the beginning of the decade, when Hoffel was barely holding on to it, but it has moved solidly for the Dems over the past few election cycles, and isn't going back anytime soon.

And there's gotta be something more we can do for the 6th district. Chester county has been by far the most conservative of the Philly burbs--I was surprised Obama won it by 10. I'd try to get more of Montco in it, or perhaps take some of Sestak's Dem leaning areas, and in turn, give Sestak some more of DelCo from Brady. I'm not good at this, but there just HAS to be a way to set up the 6th that it will elect a Dem no matter what Gerlach does.

Nice job!

Santorum
Its hard to believe, now, that Santorum once represented a district that went for Clinton by like 21% in 92. And won re-election, that year, by around the same margin. It later went for Clinton, in 96, by 13% and Gore by 16%. Under the same lines and with Doyle as congressman. Maybe thered be a risk in having the same kind of district in 2012. But not with Doyle as congressman as Im sure he would win against anyone. But in an open race (if Doyle is put somewhere else. i doubt hed retire by then).
But
Didn't he pretend to be somewhat moderate back then in order to get elected?
[ Parent ]
Yes
As I indicated below, he was pushed into a redistricting boondogle in 2012, where his suburban district ate the downtown Pittsburgh district of the quite liberal William Coyne.  Despite Coyne's seniority and a friendly district, he retired rather than face Doyle.  Doyle could survive in a more suburban district, I think.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Bah
Note to self: Don't trust your typing.  I meant 2002, not 2012, of course).

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Question
This might be a really stupid question, but where did you get the results for Pennsylvania by municipality because I would love to see them. Thanks!  
Elk County
Delighted to think Elk County would be OUT of District 5.  Absolutely neanderthal Republican Congressman elected here.

I worked for the Obama campaign in Elk County where I live.  I think the reason Obama won was because we worked our asses off.  Howard Dean had already sent an organizer and set up the voter database.  Then Obama sent a full-time organizer in August, followed by several full-time semi-paid volunteers in September. Now have more registered Democrats than Republicans as lots of former Republicans changed parties - hated Bush/Santora

I personally knocked on every door in my ward at least once and most of them twice and literally talked my neighbors into voting for Obama.  I was one of dozens of local volunteers - remember the whole of Elk County has barely 10,000 people. The phone banks went non-stop.  Weekend before election day, we hung flyers on doorknob of every possible Obama voter.  And we got a record turnout.

Unfortunately, we lost every other office in Elk County to Republicans - state and Federal legislature.  The other Democratic campaigns were just left in dust.

The people here are Catholic and pro-union.  But they are also Gun Nuts, with lots of "BornAgains" and general rednecks.  Much like Murtha described his voters.  We told Murtha that just because something is true does NOT mean you have to say it on TV.

Awesome job
A pretty incredible story and you should definitely be thanked for some of Obama's success in Elk County. Definitely alot of effort and it paid off. Im not sure if it could work where I live...as this is your typical suburban area where voters dont really like people knocking on their doors unless theyre family or friends. But in rural areas where 'everyone keeps their doors unlocked' (probably not true, of course) that kind of campaigning works.  
[ Parent ]
Jurassic Park IV, or Redistricting Pennsylvania | 48 comments

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