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SSP Daily Digest: 3/20

by: Crisitunity

Fri Mar 20, 2009 at 1:48 PM EDT


• Committees: Fundraising numbers for the committees for the month of February came out yesterday and today:

The NRSC raised $2.87 million, ending with $1.05 million CoH and $2.7 million in debt (down from $4 million in debt last month).
The DSCC also raised $2.87 million, ending with $3.07 million CoH and $10.9 million in debt.
The NRCC raised $2.03 million, ending with $1.85 million CoH and $6.4 million in debt.
The DCCC won the month, raising $3.5 million, ending with $2.9 million CoH and $15 million in debt.

• MN-Sen: Is there finally a light at the tunnel at the end of the interminable legal battle? Norm Coleman's attorney said in a radio interview that he's "done," and that when the three-judge panel is done reviewing the count, Franken is still likely to be ahead, although he still plans on a "quick appeal."

• CA-10: More clarity in the field in the upcoming special election: assemblyman Tom Torlakson, who was considered one of the two likely contenders for the seat, won't run. He was already in the process of running for state superintendent of public instruction, and will continue with that instead. This leaves a clearer path for state senator Mark DeSaulnier, although assemblywoman Joan Buchanan is also interested.

• MI-Gov: Venture capitalist (i.e. rich guy) Rick Snyder is looking to join the crowded GOP field for the 2010 governor's race. At least six names have been floated for this race or are already running. (D)

• SC-Gov: Inez Tenenbaum, the highest-profile Dem considering the South Carolina governor's race (she was superintendent of public instruction for two terms and was competitive against Jim DeMint in the 2004 Senate race), has declined to run for governor. State senator Vincent Sheheen is the only Dem in the race so far, although others interested include state house minority leader Harry Ott, state senators Brad Hutto and Robert Ford, and Charleston attorney Mullins McLeod.

• SC-03: Republican state senator Shane Massey is the first to jump into fray to succeed Gresham Barrett, who's running for the open SC governor's seat. No Dems have stepped up yet in this dark-red district.

• PA-15: Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan met with Allyson Schwartz in Washington this week to discuss a possible bid against GOP Rep. Charlie Dent. Unfortunately for Democrats, Callahan says he's "not interested" in the race at this point. And so the search for a viable candidate in this competitive district continues... (J)
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/20
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SSP Daily Digest: 3/20 | 87 comments
Complacency will be what hurts us in 2010
I have no doubt in my mind that we are going to have a very good year in 2012 when Obama's operation is out there, but if anything is going to screw up 2010 for us it is simply Democrats not coming out to vote against Republicans the way they did the past two cycles.

Making Rush Limbaugh a laughingstock helps, but national Democrats need to get serious about telling everyone why we need more Democrats in office.  The fact that we seem to barely have control over a Senate split 58-41 is embarrassing.

btw, Dent and Gerlach really need to go.  Those districts are fertile ground for good progressive Democrats.  Please no more Bobby Brights.

2010 should be just fine
The number of Democrats in serious jeopardy of losing their house seats are few enough that I can count them with my two hands.  And the Senate landscape looks every bit as favorable as 2008.

The Gubernatorial races are what really makes 2010 big, and there are a lot of big question marks for the states where redistricting hinges on 2010.

Our next tough year year in the Senate in 2012 when all those freshmen Dem Senators will be on the ballot, plus quite a few retirmeents are likely given we had so few in 2006.  I'm glad Obama will be on the ballot that year.

[ Parent ]
Oh I know we're in no danger of massive losses
I'd be shocked if we lose like 10 House seats and break even in the Senate.  That's probably a worst case scenario for us at the moment.  But still, given what we've got, and how much the public hates the GOP right now and favors Democrats on every single issue, often by huge majorities, we do have the ability to rack up another dozen or so House seats and 4-7 Senate seats.  Just not likely unless Democrats are motivated to come out and make it happen.

The governor races bother me though, there's a lot more fluidity there and much more competitive races.  Also the stakes are higher for redistricting.

btw, if you look at the individual Senate seats up in 2012, it's actually not a bad map.  The only freshmen in states McCain won are Tester and McCaskill, and both states Obama came pretty close to winning, and both incumbents seem to be pretty popular.  All our other freshmen are in states Obama easily carried.  The only seat we might possibly lose would be Ben Nelson only if he retires (will be 71, but seems to be enjoying his recent position of power as a swing vote).  Plus we've got good targets to go after in Arizona (Kyl), Nevada (Ensign), and possibly even Cornyn (Texas).  Dick Lugar might also retire in Indiana when he's 80 years old, and who knows Olympia Snowe might even call it quits at 65 if it looks like she's in the minority for the rest of her life.

[ Parent ]
Cornyn
just won in 2008 so he isn't up for another election until 2014.

Webb
Byrd
McCaskill
Tester
Brown
Kennedy
Both Nelsons
Stabenow
Feinstein
Akaka
Kohl

could all get serious challenges depending on retirement, etc. Basically, it's too far out to tell but the Democrats start off defending a lot more seat because of the large freshmen class from 2006.

[ Parent ]
Republicans up are...
Kyl, Lugar, Snowe, Wicker, Ensign, Corker, Hatch and Borrasso. Not many but Dems could have a shot at Kyl and Ensign's as well as an open seat race in IN and ME. Kyl isnt getting any younger (hes 66 now) so he conceivably could retire as well. I doubt Dems would have much of a chance in an open UT race.
[ Parent ]
If the economy turns around in 2012
Obama will win a landslide, and I think Kyl and Ensign are gone.  The reason is Hispanics, they have been extremely right wing on immigration and Kyl has been almost a Tom Tancredo on this matter.  Ensign acts like a Deep South Repub in a state which went to Obama by 12%.
[ Parent ]
IIRC
I thought I saw Kyl doing a lot of work on the immigration reform bill.  I remember seeing him up front and center with Kennedy was it who was the main D sponsor?  Maybe I'm wrong, whatev.

Imagine if we get Titus and Giffords to run against Kyl and Ensign.  What a doozy.

[ Parent ]
Wrong Arizona senator
McCain-Kennedy.

Kyl had something before with Cornyn.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

[ Parent ]
As the link suggests
It depends on which bill you meant. So confusing.
[ Parent ]
Webb had concerned me the most
His approvals by SUSA were consistently in the low to mid 40's for most of his first two years, but seem to have bounced above 50% finally.

Byrd'd seat is probably dafe whether he runs or not.  I'd be shocked if Governor Manchin didn't run for his seat if he retires.  And he's crush anyone in his path.  I doubt even Capito it stupid enough to run against him.

[ Parent ]
Webb will be fine in 2012
Obama will win Virginia by double digits, and Webb will ride those coattails.

I don't think Byrd will run again.  I don't think Capito has a chance against Manchin, and would be an underdog against Rahall.

I think the two most vulnerable seats if they become open, are Hawaii and Wisconsin, and neither one are all that appealing for the Repubs.  Lingle could win in an off-year, but she won't beat the Dem with Obama on the ballot.  The Repubs could well win the Wisconsin seat with a moderate (especially against Tammy Baldwin), but they will likely nominate wingnut ideologue Paul Ryan.

[ Parent ]
I agree
We have to give Webb time.  As you can tell in watching his speeches from 2006 and into 2007, he was very unpolished.  I think it took people in Virginia awhile to appreciate his plainspoken personality.
[ Parent ]
RE: VA in 2008
Not that I disagree with your premise, but Obama actually only carried VA by 6% (1% less than his national average).  Theoretically in a partisan neutral environment VA is actually R+1.  Webb should be fine, but we have a while to go before VA is like Cali or even New Mexico.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic
[ Parent ]
Virginia is moving to the Dems
really fast.  But even if VA is R+1, if Obama is winning by 10-15% nationally in 2012, Webb has a lot of coattails to grab.
[ Parent ]
Well
We'll be lucky to break even in the Senate in 2012, but other than that, totally.
I agree though--We need to focus on the districts where we can actually elect progressives. We have the "more" Democrats. Lets get some "better" ones.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Fine by me
If you guaranteed me we'd break even in 2012 I'd take it in a heartbeat.  We're probably going to have at minimum 62 or 63 seats going into 2012 anyhow.
[ Parent ]
I predict that we will pick up seats
in 2012. I think we will certainly win Nevada (Ensign) and Arizona (Kyl), and have a good chance and winning Indiana if Lugar retires.  I also think Hutchison will lose the primary for Governro to Perry, and then retire in 2012, and we have a decent chance of picking that one up.

And with the Repubs still in ideological fantasy land, it will be a while before they are able to win in any blue states.

[ Parent ]
Possible
I'm just worried about retirements.  We've had next to no retirements from Democratic Senators in 2006 and 2008, and it looks like 2010 as well.  All those old-timers have to retire someday.  

Nevada and Arizona look good in 2012.  Those are seats that I think many top-tier Dems now wish they had run for in 2006.  Both states should be carried by Obama in 2012.  Arizona only went republican in 2008 because of McCain.

[ Parent ]
I couldn't agree more with your possible pickups
But you don't think we'll have any losses? On paper, 2006 should have been a kinda crappy year for us, there are a few people who probably should have gotten wiped out then (the Nelson twins for sure, maybe Cantwell and Stabenow), and while they're on more stable footing now, I could see at least one of them losing (most likely not Stabenow now since she got the toughest '06 challenge and Michigan's veered so far to the left) unless it's another amazing year.

And then there's the very good chance that we'll be dealing with several retirements. Even if most or all of the retirements seem minor, the house of cards could collapse if we're juggling like six open seats.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
There will be some risky seats in 2012
I do think you're underestimating the Nelsons though.  Bill Nelson has very good constituent services and has become much more visible in the Senate since Dems took a majority.  The only republican I think who could have beaten him in 2006 was Jeb.

Retirements are the big thing.  We have quite a few Senators getting up there.  Most of them are on our side of the aisle.  

Democrats:
Feinstein (CA) 79
Bill Nelson (FL) 70
Akaka (HI) 88
Cardin (MD) 69 - and he's a freshman
Kennedy (MA) 80
Ben Nelson (NE) 71
Bingaman (NM) 69
Conrad (ND) 64
Byrd (WV) 95
Kohl (WI) 77
Lieberman (CT) 70
Sanders (VT) 71

Republicans:
Kyl (AZ) 70
Lugar (IN) 80
Snowe (ME) 65
Hatch (UT) 78


[ Parent ]
Beyond Ben Nelson and Conrad I don't see any problems
With any of these people retiring. We either have a good bench and/or these are states that would elect Democratic US Senators if a retirement was to occur. I believe I read above that Cantwell could potentially be a liability which I think is kind of silly. Cantwell is very pro-environment which is very popular in WA and she ran a pretty good campaign in 2006 winning comfortably and lets face it WA is a solidly blue state now.

The  Republicans look pretty promising in terms of just possible retirements with Lugar and Kyl topping the list as more likely to call it quits/ us picking the seats up. I'd love to see Snowe retire but I think she likes her niche as a pragmatic deal maker pretty good with this 60 vote requirement at it's apex.

All in all worst case scenario I say a break even year in 2012. Best case 4 pickups if Snowe and Lugar retire and we win NV and AZ. Really too early to tell though.

[ Parent ]
In the case of an open seat
Kohl's WI Senate seat would also be extremely competitive.  Of course it is thankfully a Presidential year and a state Obama should carry handily.  
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin and Hawaii are the two
I would be worried about.  Hawaii probably will result in Lingle running, which will be troublesome.  In Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin is likely to be our nominee, and she is to the left of even Feingold, and may have trouble against a moderate Repub.  Of course, if the Repubs nominate wingnut Paul Ryan, then Baldwin would likely be favored with Obama carrying the state by around 20.
[ Parent ]
Hawaii in 2012?
No chance in hell.  That's Obama's second home state and he's practically a deity there.  No republican is going to win in Hawaii in 2012 with Obama on the ballot.  If Lingle wants to run for Senate she better try it some other year.
[ Parent ]
Depends whom we nominate
If we nominate a bad candidate, Lingle has a chance.  
[ Parent ]
One Trip
One trip by Obama to the Honolulu and it's over for Lingle, even if she is facing a sack of potatoes.  
[ Parent ]
Obama is not going to Hawaii to campaign in 2012
except maybe for vacation.
[ Parent ]
Sure he will
If a Dem in Hawaii needs a helping hand he'll spend a few hours going to Hawaii to campaign.  Even cutting a TV ad though would probably suffice.
[ Parent ]
Because he did that
Soooooooo often during 2008.
He really didn't pay much attention to congressional campaigns in '08 and had no problem with the fact that filling up his cabinet created several potential '10 headaches.
What exactly makes you think '12 will be different?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Baldwin
If she loses i think her sexuality will be a bigger reason than her political ideology. Its sad but i think true. thats not to say she should be denied the Dem nod, though. not by any means.
[ Parent ]
And not to say...
That Wisconsin is an anti-gay place. but i know theres many culturally conservative swing voters there.  
[ Parent ]
Gay Marriage went down in Wisconsin
by an fairly wide margin...but I actually think the public is more tolerant with lesbians than with gay men.

Wasn't she the first openly gay member of Congress (meaning to be out when elected?)

I know none of the men were (Studds, Frank, Gunderson, Kolbe) because Jared Polis is the first openly gay man elected to Congress to be out upon election

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I do know
A gay male Republican served in Congress in Wisconsin. In SW WI, I believe. Im glad that gay marriage amendment went down. I wonder what the wording of the amendment was, though.  
[ Parent ]
the amendment passed,
to ban gay marriage passed is what I meant to say. The wording however was "marriage is between a man and women" I don't think it included civil unions and if it did, I don't think it made that clear. I would guess civil unions may actually pass in Wisconsin.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
nope
the ban includes civil unions.  Passed 57-42 IIRC.  But definitely included civil unions.
[ Parent ]
Was the public aware of that
I know there was a situation in either Virginia or Michigan where the gay marriage ban included civil unions and a lot of people protested after the fact, saying they would've have voted for the amendment if they knew it included all recognition.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Civil unions
Some of these gay marriage amendments even have wording that could be interpreted (legally speaking) as not allowing a legal contract between elderly siblings thatd have the same benefits as civil unions. Which has absolutely nothing to do with gay rights. I think the politicians (and the interest groups that influence them) included that because they feared if the wording isnt broad enough then gay marriage and/or gay civil unions might be successfully challenged in court. So theyd just rather take away rights from straight elderly people (many of whom might otherwise support their cause) if that meant theres a chance their anti-gay rights agenda gets knocked down in court. personally i hope gay marriage is passed in every state and gays have full equality everywhere.  
[ Parent ]
I didn't want to say that
but that is certainly what I was hinting.  There may be many people in Wisconsin that vote for Obama for reelection but vote for the Repub for Senate against Baldwin due to a combination of her sexuality and strong liberalism.

Still against a conservative Repub, Baldwin will have enough votes to spare.  Against a Repub who can position in the center, Baldwin will have trouble.  My feeling is that the Repubs will nominate someone hard right, such as Paul Ryan, and Baldwin would escape narrowly.

[ Parent ]
I was under the impression that
Ron Kind was the presumed nominee for future open senate races in Wisconsin.  I'd feel a lot better with Kind on the ticket rather than Baldwin.  I like  her, but her extreme liberalness and the fact that she is a Lesbian is not likely to play well in a socially moderate state like Wisconsin.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
Well Feingold got elected
and I'm sure the left isn't going to sit back and let it be Kind.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
If they know what's good for them
they should.  Besides, Kinds no conservative.  His progressive punch lifetime rating is 83.24, compared to Herb Kohl's at 84.07 and Russ Feingolds at 89.03.  Tammy Baldwin is at 96.89, a bit much to get elected statewide in the state of Wisconsin.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
Most of the left considers Herb Kohl
to be a conservative Democrat.  
[ Parent ]
compared to themselves
but I wouldn't consider an 84 to be conservative. I call anything less than say 75 conservative for a democrat.  Herb Kohl is in my opinion, a mainstream Democrat.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
Baldwin
Where is Baldwin on gun control, for example, though? I know Feingold is at least moderately pro-gun. And this is a pro-gun state. The issue didnt matter much in Obama/McCain (for example Obama won in a blowout in very pro-gun states like VT, ME, MI and NH) but its an issue that can matter.
[ Parent ]
VT
Although maybe VT isnt as pro-gun as it was in the past. Much of VT's shift to the left is thanks to out of staters moving in and im sure theyre not that pro-gun if at all.
[ Parent ]
Ron Kind has a seat on Ways and Means
and at his age, 45, he has a very decent chance of being chairman of that powerful committee at some point.  Kind might not want to give up that kind of influence to move up to the Senate.

That was the main reason why Earl Blumenauer, who is 60, reportedly passed on the Senate race in 2008 in Oregon.

[ Parent ]
WI Democratic bench
The Dems have a bench there, though, dont they? Although not counting Doyle and Lawson. Doyle would be weak and Lawson is probably aiming for Gov. (as she said shed consider running in 2010 if Doyle doesnt).  
[ Parent ]
It isn't great
partly due to little turnover.  For example, Doug LaFollette has been SoS for most of the past 35 years.

Kind would be an excellent candidate, a great match for the state.

[ Parent ]
2012 will probably be an Obama landslide
of the range of 15%.  We can afford some of these retirements, especially in blue states where the Repubs are running into a wind where their candidate is losing by 20+%.

I don't think either Nelson or Conrad will retire.  The two open seat blue states where the Repubs have a legit shot are Wisconsin (especially if very liberal Tammy Baldwin is our candidate) and Hawaii (if Lingle runs).  But that is counterbalanced by a likely Obama landslide.

[ Parent ]
I love the optimism
it's funny, everyone I talk to is just as optimistic as that. "Obama wil fix the economy. He will be reelected in a landslide. Republicans won't be governing the country for decades" Even Republicans think that.

Yet you go online, the media, the netroots, and it's like "Obama is the biggest failure ever. Uh Oh! Republicans are gonna come back!"


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
The media would like there to be
a competitive Repub party.  But I think the Repubs are at least 5 years from reframing themselves into a competitive party.  The problem is that their base is on a different planet than the independents that they need to win to be competitive.  The result is that the Repubs will keep nominating nutjobs who are unelectable.  It is kind of like the Democrats to some extent in the 1980s, but even then the Democrats had the conservative union members to keep the nominees centrist enough.  The Republicans absolutely need to moderate on economic issues, but the Rush Limbaugh induced base will not let them, at least until they get whacked around in a few elections.

I predict we'll get a taste of this problem for the Repubs in primary races in Pennsylvania, where I think Pat Toomey will win a primary, in Texas, where I think Rick Perry will upset Kay Bailey Hutchison, and possibly in Florida, where if Crist runs for the Senate, he would easily beat a Democrat, but I wouldn't be surprised if he loses a primary to a wingnut.

As far as the worrywarts and purists on dKos and OpenLeft, not much you can do about them, but they may do a service by pushing Obama to the left if they decide to be productive rather than counterproductive.


[ Parent ]
Depressed, Obama's Katrina
the top two diaries right now on DKos' rec list. I don't even look at OpenLeft anymore because they have just lost it.

I just find it interesting that here were are talking about how large Obama's reelection will be, while on what was once our sister blogs, they're talking about how much it sucks that Obama will only serve one term.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Well I'd caution us not to be so optimistic
especially so far out.

I'd also advise them not to be so pessimistic especially so far out.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
That's pretty much me.
I've been in "wait and see" mode since 11/4/2008.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Agreed
It could be a blowout win, a significant loss or a tight win or loss. We just cant know right now. I mean, who the hell would have thought, 2 years before the re-elections, Reagan and Clinton would have won a landslide re-election. As those werent good years for their parties. Anything can happen in 2 years. And right now its 4.
[ Parent ]
Well, mini-landslide for Clinton
To be fair.  
[ Parent ]
You touch on something very important
A one-term Obama presidency heavily depends on a viable Republican Party. Thing is, there isn't one. Whatever problems the Dems may be having, voters trust Republicans even less.
[ Parent ]
The other serious threat to Obama's reelection
is a left-populist party that could take 10-15% straight out of Obama's pocket (similar to Huey Long's desire to challenge FDR in 1936).  But that isn't there either.
[ Parent ]
Do they need a viable Republican Party?
There's a chance, admittedly not great but still there, that a weakened Republican apparatus would provide an opportunity for an insurgent campaign effectively running against both parties on a nebulous populist basis.

The very shock of that might give such a campaign the breathing room before it began to be seriously asked what it really stood for and hoped to achieve.

Sarah Palin couldn't do that, but somebody more in the Ron Paul mode might. Luckily, I can't think of anybody likely to be able to give this a go. Buchanan hasn't spawned any direct heirs and is too old to give it a go himself (and he'd introduce an uncomfortable racial element into the mix) but somebody appearing out of nowhere might give it a go. Obama's rise was meteoric and whilst it's unlikely the Republicans could pull somebody with his qualities out of a hat, if the economy was struggling they wouldn't necessarily need somebody with his qualities.

As I say, I think this a long shot, but if Democratic favourability drops, it becomes a possibility.

[ Parent ]
Nobody knows about 2012
It depends almost entirely on how the economy does, and there are too many unknowables at present, even before we get in to the potential political responses to the crisis.

If you're basically optimistic or have faith in our political (and economic) leaders to do what needs to be done, you're likely to believe that things will be fixed by 2012. If you're a cynic, you believe that current economic thinking is fundamentally wrongheaded or you believe politics to be inherently corrupting, you're likely to be less sanguine.

I think that more or less explains the difference in responses between your real-world circle of acquintances and the dissatisfied within the blogosphere.

[ Parent ]
Real world
After a shitty week (AIG, "Special Olympics") Obama job approval at 65-26 according to Gallup. Rasmussen can stick his biased BS where the sun don't shine.
[ Parent ]
Well
I think we have reason to be optimistic.  Incumbent Presidents have something like a 65% chance of getting re-elected historically.  I think Obama's chances are a good deal better than that given how out of touch republicans are and how out of the mainstream all of the big named republicans are, such as Romney, Palin, Jindal, etc.  Someone moderate like Charlie Crist or Jon Huntsman would be their best shot, but we all know noone that moderate has any chance at the nomination in 2012.

Obama also has quite possibly the greatest GOTV machine this country has ever seen.  Even if the economy is still poor in 2012 you can be sure his base of African-Americans, Hispanics, educated whites, etc. will still be very highly motivated and will show up at the polls in massive numbers as they did in 2008.  

[ Parent ]
I just think
the left of the party is going to sink him...they're really unrealistic about their demands (economics aside). There's a diary on dkos now that's been met popularly where the diarist says he won't support the budget because military spending in it is too high. Chris Bowers won't support the budget because there's some money for banks in it. (For once, I actually sympathize more with Bowers). But the end result is this is still a surprisingly progressive budget and progressives are nitpicking at it.

Maybe it's because my demands and expectations weren't all that high

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
In the end they won't matter
Ideologically I'm probably even further left than Bowers.  The difference between him and myself, along with most on the far left is that we are realists and he isn't.  I support candidates who are only as far left as their districts will allow and I advocate policies that are as far left as the country will allow.  Most on the left are realists like me.

Will a lot of the left be pissed if we still don't have things like universal healthcare by 2012?  Of course.  But will they stay home in 2012 and not support Obama?  I highly doubt that.

In the end Obama's real base of support are minorities (especially African-Americans) and highly educated whites (I'm in that category).  The overwhelming majority of them are not uber liberals, but left of center voters who will fight tooth and nail to get Obama re-elected.  They are not looking for or expecting overnight transformation of the country, but rather steady movement forward on progressive policies.  Everything I've seen thus far from Obama seem to sugest that's exactly how he intends to govern.

[ Parent ]
That's funny you say that
because on the OTHER netroots blog, MyDD, someone was saying that a lot of Democrats, including him, would stay home in 2010 if universal healthcare isn't passed by then.

I would be shocked if we got universal healthcare by 2010.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Depends on the definition of "universal healthcare"
I think by 2012 we will have nearly everyone in the country covered by some sort of health insurance, with the current uninsured covered by some sort of government guaranted insurance plan.  Unfortunately I think single-payer is a long-term solution that will take a good deal more time.
[ Parent ]
This is funny too
They are not looking for or expecting overnight transformation of the country, but rather steady movement forward on progressive policies.  Everything I've seen thus far from Obama seem to sugest that's exactly how he intends to govern.

and if you looked at the Rec list at Dkos right now, that's exactly why they say he'll be a failed one term president. There are two realities it seems.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I'd be surprised however
if some sort of major health care reform doesn't passes in the next year, especially with the Democrats clearly committed to using the budget reconciliation to advance health care to avoid a filibuster in the Senate.  A health care reform plan certainly will get majorities in both houses.  
[ Parent ]
I hope major reform is passed next year
I understand deficits and all that...but to me the govt spending money on quality, affordable health care is just as important as spending money on law enforcement and emergency agencies. As we are talking about people's livelihoods. I just wish more in Congress would look at it that way. Europe does. Health care is a basic, fundamental right there. Oddly, though, we spend more on health care, percentage wise, than like any other country.  
[ Parent ]
How much is "a lot"?
Given how long the battle over health care has gone on, I doubt too many people are expecting universal health care by 2010.

It sounds like a child who throws a tantrum when he doesn't get what he wants right now!

[ Parent ]
Universal healthcare
To me, 'universal healthcare' isnt merely just getting everyone health insurance. Its where everyone is able to afford health care (where a dr. visit, surgery, etc. is for free or cheap enough where they can afford it). I work in retail, make only enough to live in an apartment and even I have health insurance. so getting everyone covered isnt the hard part. The real reform will be getting the insurance to be quality insurance. Im talking the kind of insurance Congressmembers have. I do think we have to take things slow and have incremental changes. And itll take time. but eventually this is something we need to tackle.
[ Parent ]
The left of the party doesn't have that power
to sink Obama.  Unless they are able to build a third party left-populist party that can get 10-15%, they aren't going to be able to threaten him.
[ Parent ]
I see that coming
I really do.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
I don't
if there ends up being a strong left-populist shift in the country such that this would be possible, Obama will shift left like FDR did in 1935.
[ Parent ]
Third party
If theres a challenge to Obama's left in 2012 i think itd be more in the line of a Ross Perot independent than someone on a real third party line. And, by the end of next decade, like Perot in the 90s, that independent will probably be forgotten. Even if he/she does major damage. Jesse Ventura had a real opportunity to create a national, fiscally right/socially left third party but he didnt have the passion for it. Bloomberg also doesnt seem to have the passion for it. Although you can argue he is more of a fiscal centrist by national standards.
[ Parent ]
For the record
I am much much much more worried about a right-wing/corporate plot to forcibly overthrow Obama and install a wingnut dictatorship than I am about a serious challenge to Obama's reelection from the left.  
[ Parent ]
Nah
If they were that powerful why even allow him to win in the first place?
[ Parent ]
The corporate interests thought
they could control him.  The right-wing (Christian extremists, Limbaughites, Faux News, etc) doesn't accept the results of the elections that they lose.  They are religious extremists, fascists and totalitarians at heart.
[ Parent ]
You just know
Ralph Nader would love to play John Anderson in 2012.
[ Parent ]
Nader is a nonfactor
I know that he would love to, but he got his chance in 2000, and is very old.

If there is a left-populist 3rd party, Nader wouldn't be it.

[ Parent ]
Netroots have far less power than some think
The polls show strong support for Obama from the base. I wouldn't worry about whining from a noisy minority online particularly after less than three months in the job. Sheesh.
[ Parent ]
The left of the party tends to lose the intra-party battles
It's a little more even nowadays, but in most fights the left of the party relies upon small-dollar donors and SEIU, whilst many of the other unions, corporate money and a fair tranche of more conservative small-dollar donors back the more conservative element. That financial imbalance counts, especially when the institutional (ie congressional and think-tank) left of the party is a lot more compliant than the Blue Dogs and their ilk.

And if you think that a significant proportion of the left will vote third party, you're smoking crack. The netroots was forged out of the ashes of Gore's defeat, and Naderite is the worst insult you can throw at just about any blog, no matter its attitude towards Obama. There might very well be an enthusiasm gap or a decision to focus efforts down-ballot. If things go really badly, there might be an abortive attempt to challenge Obama in the primaries (which would probably get relatively little support from the blogs, and none from unions or DC institutional players.) But a viable third-party effort supported by the left of the Democratic Party? Never going to happen.

[ Parent ]
"The netroots was forged out of the ashes of Gore's defeat"
I love this line.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Actually
forged by Gore's invention of the Internet.
[ Parent ]
PA-15
Anybody considering Easton mayor Sal Panto?  I lived there 10 years ago in between his two periods as Mayor and knew the guy.  He used to work weekends as a disc jockey so he's pretty good media wise.  He's definitely partisan and pretty smart (IIRC he's got an MBA from Lehigh).
That debt worries me
The DSCC and DCCC are raising respectable but not amazing sums, and their present debts are about four times monthly takings. I'd like to see that number start to be heavily reduced over the next few months, so that they're flush again before, rather than during, the busiest parts of the cycle.
Well...
It is only March 2009. If we're in the same situation a year from now, we'd have a problem. But now, not so much. Still, you are absolutely right about getting that debt under control. I imagine it should be erased by late summer if not earlier.
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 3/20 | 87 comments

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