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New Cook PVIs for All Congressional Districts

by: sicembears

Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 8:21 PM EDT


Based on Swing State's Compilation of presidential results for all 435 Congressional Districts, I have calculated the new Cook PVIs for each congressional district:

State   CD       Member Party           Old PVI         New PVI             Change    
AK AL Young (R) R+ 14.1 R+ 15.5 R+ 1.4
AL 1 Bonner (R) R+ 11.7 R+ 16.5 R+ 4.8
AL 2 Bright (D) R+ 13.1 R+ 19.0 R+ 5.9
AL 3 Rogers (R) R+ 4.3 R+ 11.3 R+ 6.9
AL 4 Aderholt (R) R+ 15.7 R+ 27.9 R+ 12.2
AL 5 Griffith (D) R+ 6.6 R+ 14.8 R+ 8.2
AL 6 Bachus (R) R+ 25.1 R+ 31.1 R+ 5.9
AL 7 Davis (D) D+ 16.9 D+ 15.0 R+ 1.9
AR 1 Berry (D) D+ 0.5 R+ 10.4 R+ 10.8
AR 2 Snyder (D) D+ 0.2 R+ 7.0 R+ 7.2
AR 3 Boozman (R) R+ 11.3 R+ 18.0 R+ 6.6
AR 4 Ross (D) D+ 0.7 R+ 9.3 R+ 10.1
AZ 1 Kirkpatrick (D) R+ 2.0 R+ 8.2 R+ 6.2
AZ 2 Franks (R) R+ 8.6 R+ 15.3 R+ 6.6
AZ 3 Shadegg (R) R+ 6.1 R+ 11.8 R+ 5.6
AZ 4 Pastor (D) D+ 14.4 D+ 10.7 R+ 3.7
AZ 5 Mitchell (D) R+ 3.9 R+ 7.2 R+ 3.4
AZ 6 Flake (R) R+ 12.2 R+ 16.8 R+ 4.6
AZ 7 Grijalva (D) D+ 10.0 D+ 3.6 R+ 6.3
AZ 8 Giffords (D) R+ 1.6 R+ 7.0 R+ 5.4
CA 1 Thompson (D) D+ 10.4 D+ 10.6 D+ 0.2
CA 2 Herger (R) R+ 12.5 R+ 13.1 R+ 0.5
CA 3 Lungren (R) R+ 6.7 R+ 8.0 R+ 1.3
CA 4 McClintock (R) R+ 10.9 R+ 12.4 R+ 1.4
CA 5 Matsui (D) D+ 13.6 D+ 12.8 R+ 0.8
CA 6 Woolsey (D) D+ 20.7 D+ 20.8 D+ 0.2
CA 7 Miller (D) D+ 19.1 D+ 16.8 R+ 2.3
CA 8 Pelosi (D) D+ 36.0 D+ 33.1 R+ 3.0
CA 9 Lee (D) D+ 37.6 D+ 34.7 R+ 3.0
CA 10 Tauscher (D) D+ 9.7 D+ 9.3 R+ 0.4
CA 11 McNerney (D) R+ 3.1 R+ 3.7 R+ 0.6
CA 12 Speier (D) D+ 22.5 D+ 20.4 R+ 2.1
CA 13 Stark (D) D+ 21.6 D+ 19.9 R+ 1.7
CA 14 Eshoo (D) D+ 18.2 D+ 18.3 D+ 0.0
CA 15 Honda (D) D+ 14.3 D+ 12.8 R+ 1.5
CA 16 Lofgren (D) D+ 16.1 D+ 13.5 R+ 2.6
CA 17 Farr (D) D+ 16.8 D+ 16.4 R+ 0.4
CA 18 Cardoza (D) D+ 3.3 D+ 1.2 R+ 2.1
CA 19 Radanovich (R) R+ 9.5 R+ 11.0 R+ 1.6
CA 20 Costa (D) D+ 4.8 D+ 2.4 R+ 2.4
CA 21 Nunes (R) R+ 12.7 R+ 15.1 R+ 2.4
CA 22 McCarthy (R) R+ 16.1 R+ 18.6 R+ 2.5
CA 23 Capps (D) D+ 9.6 D+ 9.4 R+ 0.1
CA 24 Gallegly (R) R+ 4.9 R+ 6.2 R+ 1.3
CA 25 McKeon (R) R+ 7.1 R+ 8.0 R+ 0.8
CA 26 Dreier (R) R+ 3.9 R+ 5.4 R+ 1.6
CA 27 Sherman (D) D+ 12.6 D+ 10.1 R+ 2.5
CA 28 Berman (D) D+ 24.7 D+ 21.0 R+ 3.8
CA 29 Schiff (D) D+ 12.6 D+ 12.1 R+ 0.4
CA 30 Waxman (D) D+ 20.0 D+ 15.4 R+ 4.6
CA 31 Becerra (D) D+ 30.2 D+ 26.0 R+ 4.2
CA 32 (D) D+ 16.7 D+ 12.3 R+ 4.4
CA 33 Watson (D) D+ 35.9 D+ 32.2 R+ 3.8
CA 34 Roybal-Allard (D) D+ 22.8 D+ 19.4 R+ 3.4
CA 35 Waters (D) D+ 32.6 D+ 29.1 R+ 3.5
CA 36 Harman (D) D+ 10.7 D+ 8.8 R+ 2.0
CA 37 Richardson (D) D+ 27.4 D+ 24.1 R+ 3.3
CA 38 Napolitano (D) D+ 19.8 D+ 15.4 R+ 4.4
CA 39 Sanchez (D) D+ 12.7 D+ 9.8 R+ 2.9
CA 40 Royce (R) R+ 7.9 R+ 10.0 R+ 2.1
CA 41 Lewis (R) R+ 8.9 R+ 12.5 R+ 3.6
CA 42 Miller (R) R+ 10.2 R+ 12.0 R+ 1.9
CA 43 Baca (D) D+ 13.2 D+ 10.3 R+ 2.9
CA 44 Calvert (R) R+ 5.9 R+ 8.2 R+ 2.4
CA 45 Bono (R) R+ 3.1 R+ 5.7 R+ 2.6
CA 46 Rohrabacher (R) R+ 5.9 R+ 8.0 R+ 2.1
CA 47 Sanchez (D) D+ 4.6 D+ 1.7 R+ 2.9
CA 48 Campbell (R) R+ 7.9 R+ 8.3 R+ 0.3
CA 49 Issa (R) R+ 10.7 R+ 12.5 R+ 1.9
CA 50 Bilbray (R) R+ 4.4 R+ 5.4 R+ 1.1
CA 51 Filner (D) D+ 7.1 D+ 4.9 R+ 2.2
CA 52 Hunter (R) R+ 8.9 R+ 11.5 R+ 2.6
CA 53 Davis (D) D+ 12.3 D+ 11.8 R+ 0.4
CO 1 DeGette (D) D+ 18.0 D+ 18.4 D+ 0.4
CO 2 Udall (D) D+ 7.9 D+ 8.3 D+ 0.4
CO 3 Salazar (D) R+ 5.6 R+ 7.2 R+ 1.7
CO 4 Markey (D) R+ 8.4 R+ 8.2 D+ 0.1
CO 5 Lamborn (R) R+ 15.6 R+ 16.8 R+ 1.2
CO 6 Coffman (R) R+ 10.0 R+ 10.8 R+ 0.8
CO 7 Perlmutter (D) D+ 2.3 D+ 1.9 R+ 0.4
CT 1 Larson (D) D+ 14.2 D+ 10.0 R+ 4.2
CT 2 Courtney (D) D+ 7.5 D+ 3.7 R+ 3.8
CT 3 DeLauro (D) D+ 11.7 D+ 6.7 R+ 5.0
CT 4 Himes (D) D+ 5.4 D+ 2.9 R+ 2.5
CT 5 Murphy (D) D+ 3.6 R+ 0.1 R+ 3.7
DE AL Castle (R) D+ 6.4 D+ 4.4 R+ 2.0
FL 1 Miller (R) R+ 19.3 R+ 23.5 R+ 4.3
FL 2 Boyd (D) R+ 2.3 R+ 8.0 R+ 5.7
FL 3 Brown (D) D+ 16.2 D+ 15.7 R+ 0.6
FL 4 Crenshaw (R) R+ 16.3 R+ 19.0 R+ 2.7
FL 5 Brown-Waite (R) R+ 5.1 R+ 11.3 R+ 6.2
FL 6 Stearns (R) R+ 8.3 R+ 12.5 R+ 4.2
FL 7 Mica (R) R+ 4.3 R+ 8.9 R+ 4.7
FL 8 Grayson (D) R+ 3.3 R+ 4.7 R+ 1.4
FL 9 Bilirakis (R) R+ 4.3 R+ 8.4 R+ 4.2
FL 10 Young (R) D+ 1.2 R+ 3.2 R+ 4.4
FL 11 Castor (D) D+ 11.0 D+ 8.9 R+ 2.1
FL 12 Putnam (R) R+ 5.3 R+ 7.9 R+ 2.7
FL 13 Buchanan (R) R+ 4.0 R+ 7.9 R+ 4.0
FL 14 Mack (R) R+ 10.3 R+ 13.5 R+ 3.2
FL 15 Posey (R) R+ 4.3 R+ 7.9 R+ 3.7
FL 16 Rooney (R) R+ 2.3 R+ 6.9 R+ 4.7
FL 17 Meek (D) D+ 35.2 D+ 31.8 R+ 3.5
FL 18 Ros-Lehtinen (R) R+ 4.3 R+ 5.2 R+ 0.9
FL 19 Wexler (D) D+ 20.7 D+ 12.1 R+ 8.6
FL 20 Wasserman-Schultz (D) D+ 17.7 D+ 10.1 R+ 7.6
FL 21 Diaz-Balart (R) R+ 6.3 R+ 7.7 R+ 1.4
FL 22 Klein (D) D+ 3.2 R+ 1.7 R+ 4.9
FL 23 Hastings (D) D+ 29.2 D+ 25.8 R+ 3.4
FL 24 Kosmas (D) R+ 2.8 R+ 6.7 R+ 3.9
FL 25 Diaz-Balart (R) R+ 4.3 R+ 6.9 R+ 2.7
GA 1 Kingston (R) R+ 12.8 R+ 18.5 R+ 5.7
GA 2 Bishop (D) D+ 2.2 R+ 1.7 R+ 3.9
GA 3 Westmoreland (R) R+ 17.6 R+ 21.4 R+ 3.7
GA 4 Johnson (D) D+ 22.1 D+ 21.7 R+ 0.4
GA 5 Lewis (D) D+ 24.7 D+ 23.2 R+ 1.5
GA 6 Price (R) R+ 18.1 R+ 20.3 R+ 2.2
GA 7 Linder (R) R+ 18.3 R+ 19.0 R+ 0.7
GA 8 Marshall (D) R+ 8.3 R+ 12.5 R+ 4.2
GA 9 Deal (R) R+ 22.8 R+ 30.1 R+ 7.3
GA 10 Broun (R) R+ 12.8 R+ 17.0 R+ 4.2
GA 11 Gingrey (R) R+ 16.9 R+ 22.5 R+ 5.6
GA 12 Barrow (D) D+ 2.0 R+ 1.7 R+ 3.7
GA 13 Scott (D) D+ 9.7 D+ 12.2 D+ 2.4
HI 1 Abercrombie (D) D+ 7.0 D+ 8.5 D+ 1.5
HI 2 Hirono (D) D+ 9.7 D+ 11.6 D+ 1.9
IA 1 Braley (D) D+ 4.8 D+ 2.4 R+ 2.4
IA 2 Loebsack (D) D+ 6.6 D+ 4.7 R+ 1.9
IA 3 Boswell (D) D+ 1.5 R+ 1.1 R+ 2.6
IA 4 Latham (R) D+ 0.2 R+ 2.4 R+ 2.6
IA 5 King (R) R+ 8.4 R+ 11.5 R+ 3.1
ID 1 Minnick (D) R+ 19.0 R+ 20.2 R+ 1.1
ID 2 Simpson (R) R+ 18.9 R+ 20.0 R+ 1.1
IL 1 Rush (D) D+ 34.7 D+ 31.3 R+ 3.4
IL 2 Jackson (D) D+ 34.7 D+ 33.3 R+ 1.4
IL 3 Lipinski (D) D+ 10.3 D+ 8.1 R+ 2.2
IL 4 Gutierrez (D) D+ 30.6 D+ 29.2 R+ 1.5
IL 5 (D) D+ 17.7 D+ 16.7 R+ 1.1
IL 6 Roskam (R) R+ 2.6 R+ 1.9 D+ 0.7
IL 7 Davis (D) D+ 34.7 D+ 31.8 R+ 2.8
IL 8 Bean (D) R+ 5.3 R+ 3.4 D+ 1.9
IL 9 Schakowsky (D) D+ 19.4 D+ 17.1 R+ 2.4
IL 10 Kirk (R) D+ 3.8 D+ 3.6 R+ 0.1
IL 11 Halvorson (D) R+ 1.0 R+ 3.4 R+ 2.4
IL 12 Costello (D) D+ 5.1 R+ 0.1 R+ 5.2
IL 13 Biggert (R) R+ 4.6 R+ 3.9 D+ 0.7
IL 14 Foster (D) R+ 4.4 R+ 3.7 D+ 0.7
IL 15 Johnson (R) R+ 6.1 R+ 8.7 R+ 2.6
IL 16 Manzullo (R) R+ 4.4 R+ 4.4 R+ 0.0
IL 17 Hare (D) D+ 4.6 D+ 0.6 R+ 3.9
IL 18 Schock (R) R+ 5.3 R+ 8.2 R+ 2.9
IL 19 Shimkus (R) R+ 8.1 R+ 11.7 R+ 3.6
IN 1 Visclosky (D) D+ 7.6 D+ 5.4 R+ 2.2
IN 2 Donnelly (D) R+ 4.1 R+ 4.7 R+ 0.6
IN 3 Souder (R) R+ 16.4 R+ 16.3 D+ 0.1
IN 4 Buyer (R) R+ 17.3 R+ 16.8 D+ 0.5
IN 5 Burton (R) R+ 19.5 R+ 19.3 D+ 0.1
IN 6 Pence (R) R+ 10.9 R+ 12.8 R+ 1.9
IN 7 Carson (D) D+ 8.5 D+ 11.2 D+ 2.7
IN 8 Ellsworth (D) R+ 8.5 R+ 10.7 R+ 2.2
IN 9 Hill (D) R+ 7.1 R+ 8.7 R+ 1.6
KS 1 Moran (R) R+ 20.4 R+ 25.3 R+ 4.9
KS 2 Jenkins (R) R+ 7.3 R+ 11.8 R+ 4.6
KS 3 Moore (D) R+ 4.4 R+ 5.7 R+ 1.3
KS 4 Tiahrt (R) R+ 12.1 R+ 15.9 R+ 3.8
KY 1 Whitfield (R) R+ 10.2 R+ 16.8 R+ 6.6
KY 2 Guthrie (R) R+ 12.9 R+ 17.3 R+ 4.4
KY 3 Yarmuth (D) D+ 2.3 D+ 0.1 R+ 2.2
KY 4 Davis (R) R+ 11.7 R+ 16.1 R+ 4.4
KY 5 Rogers (R) R+ 8.0 R+ 18.4 R+ 10.3
KY 6 Chandler (D) R+ 6.6 R+ 11.0 R+ 4.4
LA 1 Scalise (R) R+ 18.8 R+ 26.4 R+ 7.6
LA 2 Cao (R) D+ 27.9 D+ 21.6 R+ 6.3
LA 3 Melancon (D) R+ 4.9 R+ 14.1 R+ 9.2
LA 4 Fleming (R) R+ 6.6 R+ 13.3 R+ 6.7
LA 5 Alexander (R) R+ 9.5 R+ 16.3 R+ 6.9
LA 6 Cassidy (R) R+ 6.6 R+ 12.6 R+ 5.9
LA 7 Boustany (R) R+ 7.4 R+ 16.1 R+ 8.7
MA 1 Olver (D) D+ 14.8 D+ 11.1 R+ 3.7
MA 2 Neal (D) D+ 12.2 D+ 6.2 R+ 6.0
MA 3 McGovern (D) D+ 12.4 D+ 6.2 R+ 6.2
MA 4 Frank (D) D+ 19.0 D+ 11.8 R+ 7.2
MA 5 Tsongas (D) D+ 11.0 D+ 5.5 R+ 5.5
MA 6 Tierney (D) D+ 11.2 D+ 4.9 R+ 6.3
MA 7 Markey (D) D+ 19.0 D+ 12.8 R+ 6.2
MA 8 Capuano (D) D+ 33.0 D+ 29.6 R+ 3.4
MA 9 Lynch (D) D+ 15.3 D+ 8.4 R+ 6.9
MA 10 Delahunt (D) D+ 8.6 D+ 2.4 R+ 6.2
MD 1 Kratovil (D) R+ 9.8 R+ 14.9 R+ 5.1
MD 2 Ruppersberger (D) D+ 7.6 D+ 4.2 R+ 3.4
MD 3 Sarbanes (D) D+ 7.2 D+ 3.7 R+ 3.5
MD 4 Edwards (D) D+ 29.9 D+ 28.6 R+ 1.3
MD 5 Hoyer (D) D+ 9.1 D+ 8.3 R+ 0.8
MD 6 Bartlett (R) R+ 13.0 R+ 16.1 R+ 3.1
MD 7 Cummings (D) D+ 25.4 D+ 23.1 R+ 2.3
MD 8 Van Hollen (D) D+ 20.1 D+ 18.5 R+ 1.6
ME 1 Pingree (D) D+ 6.2 D+ 5.2 R+ 1.0
ME 2 Michaud (D) D+ 3.6 D+ 0.9 R+ 2.7
MI 1 Stupak (D) R+ 2.3 R+ 4.9 R+ 2.6
MI 2 Hoekstra (R) R+ 9.5 R+ 9.7 R+ 0.3
MI 3 Ehlers (R) R+ 9.2 R+ 8.5 D+ 0.7
MI 4 Camp (R) R+ 4.1 R+ 5.9 R+ 1.9
MI 5 Kildee (D) D+ 11.9 D+ 8.1 R+ 3.7
MI 6 Upton (R) R+ 2.3 R+ 3.2 R+ 0.8
MI 7 Schauer (D) R+ 2.3 R+ 4.4 R+ 2.1
MI 8 Rogers (R) R+ 2.1 R+ 4.2 R+ 2.1
MI 9 Peters (D) R+ 0.3 R+ 0.9 R+ 0.6
MI 10 Miller (R) R+ 4.3 R+ 7.7 R+ 3.4
MI 11 McCotter (R) R+ 1.3 R+ 2.9 R+ 1.6
MI 12 Levin (D) D+ 12.9 D+ 10.0 R+ 2.9
MI 13 Kilpatrick (D) D+ 32.1 D+ 29.3 R+ 2.8
MI 14 Conyers (D) D+ 33.7 D+ 30.8 R+ 2.8
MI 15 Dingell (D) D+ 12.9 D+ 10.7 R+ 2.2
MN 1 Walz (D) R+ 0.8 R+ 3.7 R+ 2.8
MN 2 Kline (R) R+ 2.9 R+ 6.5 R+ 3.6
MN 3 Paulsen (R) R+ 0.6 R+ 2.9 R+ 2.4
MN 4 McCollum (D) D+ 12.9 D+ 10.3 R+ 2.6
MN 5 Ellison (D) D+ 21.3 D+ 19.9 R+ 1.4
MN 6 Bachmann (R) R+ 5.2 R+ 9.5 R+ 4.3
MN 7 Peterson (D) R+ 5.5 R+ 7.5 R+ 2.0
MN 8 Oberstar (D) D+ 4.4 D+ 0.1 R+ 4.2
MO 1 Clay (D) D+ 25.5 D+ 24.2 R+ 1.3
MO 2 Akin (R) R+ 8.9 R+ 11.5 R+ 2.6
MO 3 Carnahan (D) D+ 7.6 D+ 5.1 R+ 2.5
MO 4 Skelton (D) R+ 10.7 R+ 16.8 R+ 6.1
MO 5 Cleaver (D) D+ 12.0 D+ 8.4 R+ 3.5
MO 6 Graves (R) R+ 4.9 R+ 9.7 R+ 4.9
MO 7 Blunt (R) R+ 14.2 R+ 19.7 R+ 5.4
MO 8 Emerson (R) R+ 10.9 R+ 17.3 R+ 6.5
MO 9 Luetkemeyer (R) R+ 6.6 R+ 11.0 R+ 4.4
MS 1 Childers (D) R+ 9.9 R+ 16.0 R+ 6.1
MS 2 Thompson (D) D+ 10.1 D+ 9.1 R+ 1.0
MS 3 Harper (R) R+ 13.9 R+ 17.5 R+ 3.6
MS 4 Taylor (D) R+ 16.3 R+ 22.0 R+ 5.8
MT AL Rehberg (R) R+ 10.7 R+ 9.3 D+ 1.4
NC 1 Butterfield (D) D+ 8.8 D+ 6.4 R+ 2.4
NC 2 Etheridge (D) R+ 2.5 R+ 4.4 R+ 1.9
NC 3 Jones (R) R+ 15.1 R+ 18.5 R+ 3.4
NC 4 Price (D) D+ 5.8 D+ 5.9 D+ 0.1
NC 5 Foxx (R) R+ 15.4 R+ 17.8 R+ 2.4
NC 6 Coble (R) R+ 17.4 R+ 20.3 R+ 2.9
NC 7 McIntyre (D) R+ 2.8 R+ 7.9 R+ 5.2
NC 8 Kissell (D) R+ 3.0 R+ 4.5 R+ 1.4
NC 9 Myrick (R) R+ 12.4 R+ 13.0 R+ 0.6
NC 10 McHenry (R) R+ 15.1 R+ 19.0 R+ 3.9
NC 11 Shuler (D) R+ 6.8 R+ 8.4 R+ 1.6
NC 12 Watt (D) D+ 11.5 D+ 13.2 D+ 1.6
NC 13 Miller (D) D+ 2.3 D+ 2.4 D+ 0.1
ND AL Pomeroy (D) R+ 13.0 R+ 12.5 D+ 0.5
NE 1 Fortenberry (R) R+ 11.6 R+ 13.0 R+ 1.4
NE 2 Terry (R) R+ 9.1 R+ 9.0 D+ 0.0
NE 3 Smith (R) R+ 23.6 R+ 26.4 R+ 2.8
NH 1 Shea-Porter (D) R+ 0.3 R+ 2.9 R+ 2.6
NH 2 Hodes (D) D+ 2.8 D+ 0.9 R+ 1.9
NJ 1 Andrews (D) D+ 14.2 D+ 9.6 R+ 4.6
NJ 2 Lobiondo (R) D+ 3.8 R+ 1.7 R+ 5.5
NJ 3 Adler (D) D+ 3.6 R+ 2.9 R+ 6.5
NJ 4 Smith (R) R+ 0.7 R+ 7.9 R+ 7.2
NJ 5 Garrett (R) R+ 4.1 R+ 9.5 R+ 5.4
NJ 6 Pallone (D) D+ 11.5 D+ 5.1 R+ 6.4
NJ 7 Lance (R) R+ 0.5 R+ 4.4 R+ 3.9
NJ 8 Pascrell (D) D+ 11.7 D+ 7.6 R+ 4.0
NJ 9 Rothman (D) D+ 13.2 D+ 6.6 R+ 6.6
NJ 10 Payne (D) D+ 34.2 D+ 30.8 R+ 3.3
NJ 11 Frelinghuysen (R) R+ 5.6 R+ 10.0 R+ 4.4
NJ 12 Holt (D) D+ 7.4 D+ 2.6 R+ 4.8
NJ 13 Sires (D) D+ 22.9 D+ 18.7 R+ 4.2
NM 1 Heinrich (D) D+ 2.3 D+ 2.1 R+ 0.2
NM 2 Teague (D) R+ 5.9 R+ 8.2 R+ 2.3
NM 3 Lujan (D) D+ 5.9 D+ 4.4 R+ 1.5
NV 1 Berkley (D) D+ 8.9 D+ 7.8 R+ 1.1
NV 2 Heller (R) R+ 8.2 R+ 7.8 D+ 0.4
NV 3 Titus (D) D+ 1.2 R+ 0.9 R+ 2.1
NY 1 Bishop (D) D+ 3.3 R+ 2.7 R+ 6.0
NY 2 Israel (D) D+ 8.0 D+ 1.6 R+ 6.3
NY 3 King (R) D+ 2.1 R+ 6.2 R+ 8.3
NY 4 McCarthy (D) D+ 9.4 D+ 3.4 R+ 6.0
NY 5 Ackerman (D) D+ 17.6 D+ 10.0 R+ 7.6
NY 6 Meeks (D) D+ 38.1 D+ 33.2 R+ 4.8
NY 7 Crowley (D) D+ 27.7 D+ 23.6 R+ 4.1
NY 8 Nadler (D) D+ 27.8 D+ 19.7 R+ 8.1
NY 9 Weiner (D) D+ 13.8 D+ 2.1 R+ 11.7
NY 10 Towns (D) D+ 40.5 D+ 35.3 R+ 5.3
NY 11 Clarke (D) D+ 39.8 D+ 35.3 R+ 4.5
NY 12 Velazquez (D) D+ 33.5 D+ 30.2 R+ 3.3
NY 13 McMahon (D) D+ 0.8 R+ 6.7 R+ 7.5
NY 14 Maloney (D) D+ 26.3 D+ 23.1 R+ 3.2
NY 15 Rangel (D) D+ 43.0 D+ 38.7 R+ 4.2
NY 16 Serrano (D) D+ 43.6 D+ 38.8 R+ 4.8
NY 17 Engel (D) D+ 20.7 D+ 15.8 R+ 4.9
NY 18 Lowey (D) D+ 10.1 D+ 6.3 R+ 3.8
NY 19 Hall (D) R+ 1.6 R+ 5.2 R+ 3.6
NY 20 (D) R+ 2.6 R+ 4.9 R+ 2.3
NY 21 Tonko (D) D+ 8.8 D+ 4.0 R+ 4.8
NY 22 Hinchey (D) D+ 5.9 D+ 3.7 R+ 2.2
NY 23 McHugh (R) R+ 0.3 R+ 3.4 R+ 3.1
NY 24 Arcuri (D) R+ 0.5 R+ 4.4 R+ 3.9
NY 25 Maffei (D) D+ 3.3 D+ 0.1 R+ 3.2
NY 26 Lee (R) R+ 3.7 R+ 8.3 R+ 4.6
NY 27 Higgins (D) D+ 6.5 D+ 0.9 R+ 5.6
NY 28 Slaughter (D) D+ 14.6 D+ 13.0 R+ 1.7
NY 29 Massa (D) R+ 4.9 R+ 8.0 R+ 3.1
OH 1 Driehaus (D) R+ 0.5 R+ 1.4 R+ 0.9
OH 2 Schmidt (R) R+ 13.2 R+ 15.5 R+ 2.2
OH 3 Turner (R) R+ 2.6 R+ 6.7 R+ 4.1
OH 4 Jordan (R) R+ 13.5 R+ 17.1 R+ 3.6
OH 5 Latta (R) R+ 10.0 R+ 11.2 R+ 1.2
OH 6 Wilson (D) D+ 0.2 R+ 4.7 R+ 4.9
OH 7 Austria (R) R+ 5.8 R+ 9.5 R+ 3.6
OH 8 Boehner (R) R+ 12.5 R+ 16.6 R+ 4.1
OH 9 Kaptur (D) D+ 8.9 D+ 7.0 R+ 1.9
OH 10 Kucinich (D) D+ 8.4 D+ 5.7 R+ 2.7
OH 11 Fudge (D) D+ 32.9 D+ 30.2 R+ 2.7
OH 12 Tiberi (R) R+ 0.8 R+ 2.4 R+ 1.6
OH 13 Sutton (D) D+ 6.6 D+ 3.1 R+ 3.5
OH 14 LaTourette (R) R+ 2.3 R+ 5.2 R+ 2.8
OH 15 Kilroy (D) R+ 0.8 R+ 1.4 R+ 0.6
OH 16 Boccieri (D) R+ 3.7 R+ 6.2 R+ 2.5
OH 17 Ryan (D) D+ 14.3 D+ 9.5 R+ 4.9
OH 18 Space (D) R+ 5.9 R+ 9.0 R+ 3.1
OK 1 Sullivan (R) R+ 12.6 R+ 18.2 R+ 5.6
OK 2 Boren (D) R+ 4.5 R+ 16.2 R+ 11.7
OK 3 Lucas (R) R+ 17.6 R+ 26.2 R+ 8.6
OK 4 Cole (R) R+ 13.1 R+ 20.2 R+ 7.1
OK 5 Fallin (R) R+ 11.8 R+ 15.2 R+ 3.4
OR 1 Wu (D) D+ 5.6 D+ 5.5 R+ 0.1
OR 2 Walden (R) R+ 11.1 R+ 12.3 R+ 1.2
OR 3 Blumenauer (D) D+ 17.5 D+ 16.4 R+ 1.1
OR 4 Defazio (D) R+ 0.1 R+ 0.8 R+ 0.7
OR 5 Schrader (D) D+ 0.7 R+ 1.1 R+ 1.8
PA 1 Brady (D) D+ 36.1 D+ 32.7 R+ 3.3
PA 2 Fattah (D) D+ 39.1 D+ 35.3 R+ 3.9
PA 3 Dahlkemper (D) R+ 1.3 R+ 5.2 R+ 3.9
PA 4 Altmire (D) R+ 2.6 R+ 8.7 R+ 6.2
PA 5 Thompson (R) R+ 9.7 R+ 12.0 R+ 2.3
PA 6 Gerlach (R) D+ 2.2 D+ 1.6 R+ 0.6
PA 7 Sestak (D) D+ 3.8 D+ 1.1 R+ 2.7
PA 8 Murphy (D) D+ 3.3 R+ 0.7 R+ 3.9
PA 9 Shuster (R) R+ 14.9 R+ 19.3 R+ 4.4
PA 10 Carney (D) R+ 7.6 R+ 11.0 R+ 3.3
PA 11 Kanjorski (D) D+ 5.6 D+ 1.6 R+ 4.0
PA 12 Murtha (D) D+ 4.5 R+ 3.4 R+ 8.0
PA 13 Schwartz (D) D+ 8.1 D+ 4.1 R+ 4.0
PA 14 Doyle (D) D+ 21.8 D+ 16.5 R+ 5.3
PA 15 Dent (R) D+ 1.5 R+ 0.4 R+ 1.9
PA 16 Pitts (R) R+ 11.2 R+ 10.2 D+ 1.0
PA 17 Holden (D) R+ 6.6 R+ 8.4 R+ 1.8
PA 18 Murphy (R) R+ 2.0 R+ 8.5 R+ 6.4
PA 19 Platts (R) R+ 12.2 R+ 14.0 R+ 1.8
RI 1 Kennedy (D) D+ 16.4 D+ 11.1 R+ 5.3
RI 2 Langevin (D) D+ 12.6 D+ 6.5 R+ 6.1
SC 1 Brown (R) R+ 9.7 R+ 13.0 R+ 3.3
SC 2 Wilson (R) R+ 9.0 R+ 11.3 R+ 2.3
SC 3 Barrett (R) R+ 13.9 R+ 19.0 R+ 5.1
SC 4 Inglis (R) R+ 14.6 R+ 17.1 R+ 2.5
SC 5 Spratt (D) R+ 5.6 R+ 9.2 R+ 3.6
SC 6 Clyburn (D) D+ 11.3 D+ 9.1 R+ 2.2
SD AL Herseth (D) R+ 10.0 R+ 11.3 R+ 1.4
TN 1 Roe (R) R+ 13.9 R+ 23.4 R+ 9.5
TN 2 Duncan (R) R+ 11.2 R+ 18.7 R+ 7.5
TN 3 Wamp (R) R+ 8.6 R+ 15.8 R+ 7.2
TN 4 Davis (D) R+ 3.3 R+ 15.6 R+ 12.3
TN 5 Cooper (D) D+ 6.0 D+ 0.6 R+ 5.4
TN 6 Gordon (D) R+ 3.8 R+ 15.0 R+ 11.2
TN 7 Blackburn (R) R+ 11.9 R+ 19.8 R+ 8.0
TN 8 Tanner (D) D+ 0.5 R+ 8.5 R+ 9.0
TN 9 Cohen (D) D+ 18.1 D+ 20.2 D+ 2.1
TX 1 Gohmert (R) R+ 16.9 R+ 22.7 R+ 5.8
TX 2 Poe (R) R+ 11.8 R+ 15.2 R+ 3.4
TX 3 Johnson (R) R+ 17.3 R+ 16.0 D+ 1.3
TX 4 Hall (R) R+ 16.8 R+ 23.5 R+ 6.8
TX 5 Hensarling (R) R+ 15.3 R+ 19.0 R+ 3.7
TX 6 Barton (R) R+ 14.8 R+ 16.7 R+ 1.9
TX 7 Culberson (R) R+ 15.3 R+ 15.0 D+ 0.3
TX 8 Brady (R) R+ 19.3 R+ 26.7 R+ 7.4
TX 9 Green (D) D+ 20.7 D+ 19.8 R+ 0.9
TX 10 McCaul (R) R+ 12.9 R+ 12.5 D+ 0.5
TX 11 Conaway (R) R+ 25.3 R+ 30.7 R+ 5.4
TX 12 Granger (R) R+ 14.3 R+ 19.0 R+ 4.7
TX 13 Thornberry (R) R+ 24.8 R+ 31.2 R+ 6.4
TX 14 Paul (R) R+ 14.3 R+ 20.5 R+ 6.3
TX 15 Hinojosa (D) D+ 2.7 D+ 0.8 R+ 1.9
TX 16 Reyes (D) D+ 9.0 D+ 7.5 R+ 1.4
TX 17 Edwards (D) R+ 17.8 R+ 22.5 R+ 4.8
TX 18 Jackson-Lee (D) D+ 23.2 D+ 21.2 R+ 2.0
TX 19 Neugebauer (R) R+ 24.8 R+ 28.5 R+ 3.8
TX 20 Gonzalez (D) D+ 7.7 D+ 5.6 R+ 2.1
TX 21 Smith (R) R+ 16.3 R+ 16.0 D+ 0.3
TX 22 Olson (R) R+ 14.3 R+ 15.0 R+ 0.7
TX 23 Rodriguez (D) R+ 4.0 R+ 6.4 R+ 2.4
TX 24 Marchant (R) R+ 15.3 R+ 14.0 D+ 1.3
TX 25 Doggett (D) D+ 1.7 D+ 3.1 D+ 1.4
TX 26 Burgess (R) R+ 12.3 R+ 15.5 R+ 3.2
TX 27 Ortiz (D) R+ 1.3 R+ 4.4 R+ 3.2
TX 28 Cuellar (D) R+ 0.8 R+ 2.7 R+ 1.9
TX 29 Green (D) D+ 7.7 D+ 5.3 R+ 2.4
TX 30 Johnson (D) D+ 25.7 D+ 24.8 R+ 0.9
TX 31 Carter (R) R+ 16.4 R+ 16.2 D+ 0.2
TX 32 Sessions (R) R+ 10.8 R+ 10.4 D+ 0.3
UT 1 Bishop (R) R+ 21.8 R+ 23.9 R+ 2.1
UT 2 Matheson (D) R+ 17.0 R+ 17.4 R+ 0.4
UT 3 Chaffetz (R) R+ 26.3 R+ 28.3 R+ 1.9
VA 1 Wittman (R) R+ 9.0 R+ 9.7 R+ 0.8
VA 2 Nye (D) R+ 5.8 R+ 7.2 R+ 1.4
VA 3 Scott (D) D+ 18.2 D+ 17.7 R+ 0.6
VA 4 Forbes (R) R+ 4.8 R+ 6.9 R+ 2.1
VA 5 Perriello (D) R+ 5.7 R+ 7.7 R+ 2.0
VA 6 Goodlatte (R) R+ 11.5 R+ 14.3 R+ 2.8
VA 7 Cantor (R) R+ 10.7 R+ 11.3 R+ 0.6
VA 8 Moran (D) D+ 13.6 D+ 13.5 R+ 0.1
VA 9 Boucher (D) R+ 7.4 R+ 13.8 R+ 6.4
VA 10 Wolf (R) R+ 5.4 R+ 4.7 D+ 0.7
VA 11 Connolly (D) R+ 0.8 R+ 0.1 D+ 0.7
VT AL Welch (D) D+ 9.1 D+ 10.8 D+ 1.7
WA 1 Inslee (D) D+ 7.7 D+ 6.5 R+ 1.2
WA 2 Larsen (D) D+ 2.8 D+ 0.9 R+ 1.9
WA 3 Baird (D) D+ 0.2 R+ 2.7 R+ 2.9
WA 4 Hastings (R) R+ 13.2 R+ 15.4 R+ 2.2
WA 5 McMorris (R) R+ 7.0 R+ 9.3 R+ 2.3
WA 6 Dicks (D) D+ 5.7 D+ 2.4 R+ 3.2
WA 7 McDermott (D) D+ 30.3 D+ 29.0 R+ 1.2
WA 8 Reichert (R) D+ 2.5 D+ 0.9 R+ 1.7
WA 9 Smith (D) D+ 5.6 D+ 2.9 R+ 2.7
WI 1 Ryan (R) R+ 2.3 R+ 4.9 R+ 2.6
WI 2 Baldwin (D) D+ 13.4 D+ 12.5 R+ 0.9
WI 3 Kind (D) D+ 2.8 D+ 1.4 R+ 1.4
WI 4 Moore (D) D+ 20.6 D+ 19.2 R+ 1.4
WI 5 Sensenbrenner (R) R+ 12.5 R+ 14.8 R+ 2.3
WI 6 Petri (R) R+ 4.9 R+ 6.7 R+ 1.8
WI 7 Obey (D) D+ 1.8 R+ 0.1 R+ 1.9
WI 8 Kagen (D) R+ 3.9 R+ 4.2 R+ 0.3
WV 1 Mollohan (D) R+ 5.6 R+ 11.5 R+ 5.9
WV 2 Capito (R) R+ 5.1 R+ 10.2 R+ 5.1
WV 3 Rahall (D) D+ 0.5 R+ 9.0 R+ 9.5
WY AL Lummis (R) R+ 19.5 R+ 22.0 R+ 2.5

The formula I used for calculating the Old and New Cook PVIs are as follows:  

Old Cook PVI = ((Bush's 2000 two-party vote share in congressional district - Bush's 2004 two-party vote share nationally) + (Bush's 2004 two-party vote share in congressional district - Bush's 2004 two-party vote share nationally))/2.  Postive numbers are Republican PVIs and negative numbers are Democratic PVIs (or you could get the same reults using the Democratic candidate's numbers and then positive numbers would be D PVIs and negative numbers would be R PVIs).

New Cook PVI = ((Bush's 2004 two-party vote share in congressional district - McCain's 2008 two-party vote share nationally) + (McCain's 2008 two-party vote share in congressional district - McCain's 2008 two-party vote share nationally))/2.

The Cook PVI formula is very flawed, IMHO, in that part of the formula compares how results from a particular district in 2004 with how McCain did nationally in 2008.  Because McCain did much worse nationally than Bush did in 2004, this makes districts look much more Republican than they would be with a truly neutral formula (if the USA as a whole had a PVI of 0.0).  Under the Cook PVI formula, the USA as a whole had a PVI of R+0.8 for 2005-2008 and a PVI of D+2.5 currently.  This is totally screwy and defeats the purpose of the Cook PVI which is to show how much a congressional district is more democratic or republican than the nation as a whole.  To adjust for this flaw in the formula, mentally add D+2.5 to a district to see where it "really" is now, and add D+3.3 to all districts to see how much a district changed as a result of the 2008 election.

sicembears :: New Cook PVIs for All Congressional Districts
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i think some of your
numbers are off? Especially your Michigan numbers.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

i think some of your
numbers are off? Especially your Michigan numbers.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Ya...
Michigan has to be off.  There's no way republicans had nearly across the board movement in their favor in that state.

[ Parent ]
System, not MI, is offf
Coming off big wins at both the House and the Presidential level only 33 districts (by hand count) wound up with a more Democratic PVI.  The number of districts with a Democratic lean dropped from 195 to 174.  The number of Districts held by a Republican with a Democratic lean nationally dropped from 10 to 5 (DE-At large (Castle), IL-10(Kirk), LA-2 (Cao), PA-6 (Gerlach)and WA-8 (Reichert)).  By contrast, Democrats won 88 districts that had a Cook PVI with a Republican lean.

As mentioned earlier, the system seems to work better in very close elections.

Before the new data, the "cut point" was R+3.  Democrats were slightly favored (more were elected) at R+3 and each point more D and Republicans were slightly favored ar R+4 and above.  I hasve not figured it out but the new cut point is probably around R+5.

And thanks for the data.  It is a major effort.


[ Parent ]
I find it especially silly
that a district like NV-03 (which we picked-up) went from a D-leaning PVI to a R-leaning PVI. Come on, Cook... Your system has a problem...

[ Parent ]
What about SPVI?
Where we take Bush 2004 in the cd minus Bush 2004 in nationally and average that with McCain's performance, rather than Bush 2004 in cd minus McCain 2008 nationally?

Also, looks like Chet Edwards wins again, at R+22.5.  Gene Taylor clocks in second at R+22.0, while Minnick comes in third at R+20.2 and Bright fourth at R+19.0.  These are based on CPVIs as shown here, of course; I wonder what order they'd be in in terms of SPVI?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


I'll Run the Numbers
and post a diary using the modified the Swing State PVI we previously discussed.

[ Parent ]
What the hell
Happened to Weiner's district?  Is it one of those 9/11 districts where people still buy into the republicans are tougher on terrorism garbage?

Yes


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I don't understand
We won this year, how did all of these districts get MORE Republican?  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

Balance moved
Any district where Obama won by less than his national margin effectively became "Republican."  The meter (or balance point) thus lurched forward quite a few points.

Winning, though, is winning.  But that is apparently how Cook PVI works according to the people on this site who figured it out (and one of the front pagers who checked it with Cook).  Weird, huh.  I guess using the 1964 or 1936 numbers would have produced an even more "Republican" nation.  LOL


[ Parent ]
To answer your question, yes, it's what David said.
The "baseline of comparison" became a bit higher since it's now 53-47 instead of 49-51 (I think).

Also, Cook's PVI (the CPVI) formula is slightly screwy, and I'm not sure how much or little that contributed to the skew here.

But yes, it's two different things to ask whether Obama won a certain district and whether the district has a D+ CPVI.  And also whether the district has a D+ SPVI (Swing State Project PVI), because CPVI and SPVI are slightly different.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Is the whole thing flawed?
I mean if Cook is doing this based on the last two elections, 2000 and 2004 were essentially 50-50 elections, 2008 was not. Is this flawed because he started basing them off 50-50 elections?

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Well, Cook PVI scores between since 2004 and up until 2008
were based on 2000 and 2004, so yes, they were effectively based on approximately 50-50 elections.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
It's Complicated
The Cook PVI formula is tfundamentally flawed because it compares congressional district results from the previous election against a baseline of national results from the current election.  All these districts shifting Republican on the Cook PVI is a function of the formula.

[ Parent ]
System sucks
Period.

Your formula is wrong
You said
New Cook PVI = ((Bush's 2004 two-party vote share in congressional district - McCain's 2008 two-party vote share nationally) + (McCain's 2008 two-party vote share in congressional district - McCain's 2008 two-party vote share nationally))/2.
It should be
New Cook PVI = ((Bush's 2004 two-party vote share in congressional district - Bush's 2004 two-party vote share nationally) + (McCain's 2008 two-party vote share in congressional district - McCain's 2008 two-party vote share nationally))/2.
The average PVI should be zero, regardless of who wins nationally and by how much. For every PVI movement in the R direction in one district, there needs to be just as much PVI movement in the D direction somewhere else. If you have nearly every single district's become more R then you're doing it wrong.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

There was a long thread discussing this a while back
and if I recall correctly, the conclusion is that that really is (surprisingly) the formula for Cook PVI.

People have proposed a "Swing State Project PVI" (SPVI or SVI) to use the formula you say is correct.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Yes
And the question I rasied then which wasn't really answered was why is it necessary to compare district performace to national performance? Comparing congressional districts to each other would seem more relevant.

[ Parent ]
Now I see
I have looked at the wikipedia page for PVI. I realize that I was wrong and you are right. I apologize.
Now I agree with you that the formula absolutely should be changed. Now I support a SVI. I see no reason for the PVI formula to be the way it is, except to artificially push the results in one direction.  

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, that is the correct formula
[ Parent ]
That's impossible
There is no way you used the right formula.  The net of all districts change should tie out to zero.  Nearly every district you show moved more republican, some by a big margin.  

[ Parent ]
Well, before we know why they calculate CPVI that way,
let's just keep CPVI on hand as a useful measure, and have SPVI for ourselves as well.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
No, he got it right (unfortunately)
Charlie confirmed this behind-the-scenes with DavidNYC, and here's a comment from a couple months ago where I did all the math on Alaska to make it transparent how the Cook PVI functions. It also shows how it would look different if you used a more intuitive system that compared 2004 against 2004 and 2008 against 2008 (which is what people around here have taken to calling SPVI, for Swing State Project PVI). The diarist makes it sound like he's doing an update or second diary that has these latter figures instead, which I'll be eager to see.

At some point, we're going to have to make some sort of executive decision about how we at SSP want to refer in shorthand to a district's lean, since a) the old Cook PVIs that we're comfortable with are now obsolete, b) the new Cook PVIs look screwy (unless Cook decides to change the formula when he releases new PVIs, which I suppose is a possibility), and c) I don't like the idea of using our own little numeric system which, efficient as it is, isn't compatible with what the broader blogosphere is using.


[ Parent ]
Well, since we have all the results compiled anyway
We should go right ahead and calculate a set of SPVIs based on the 2004 and 2008 results.

We can then compare these to the CPVIs for 2004-2008, as well as the SPVIs for 2000-2004 and CPVIs for 2000-2004, as well as the individual PVIs for 2000, 2004, and 2008.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Possible and screwy
Unfortunately, the results are possible because the formula is screwy if the election is neither tied or at least nearly tied.

Just for comparison, here are the results for districts that seem "moderately Republican."

R + 0.1-1.0  N=7, D6, R1
R + 1.1-2.0  N=9, D7, R2
R + 2.1-3.0  N=9, D5, R4
R + 3.1-4.0  N=10 D6, R4
R + 4.1-5.0  N=14 D10, R4
R + 5.1-6.0  N=9  D3, R6
R + 6.1-7.0  N=13 D6, R7

Obviously, a district with a score between R +0.1 and  R +5.0 is not moderately Republican (at least in 2008) but moderately Democratic.  Obama, in fact, won the districts below R+3.5 or so and local House Democrats ran a bit ahead particularly in winning races.

For our purposes, R+5.0 is a neutral race.  NY-20 at R+4.9 actually leans ever so slightly Democratic despite a substantial Republican edge in registration in NY-20.  

The major benefit of Cook PVI is it allows a comparison of "similar" districts in different regions.  FL-8 and IN-2 each have Cook PVIs of 4.7 and Democratic House representation.  VA-10 has a CPVI of R+4.7 and is represented by a Republican.  According to Cook, Orlando,northern Indiana, and the Virginia suburbs/exurbs of DC are politically very similar.  That's useful.  Calling the areas "Republican" is actually misleading but a logical conclusion from his labelling system.


[ Parent ]

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