I hate to pimp my blog

but I thought some of you might be interested. We're putting up Presidential results for Assembly districts in New York City's five boroughs if anyone's interested. Queens is up. I'd be happy to share it with Swing State Project if the editors are interested.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 20:49:50 PM UTC

Can you do Senate districts on Long Island?

the state Senate is close and the results may help determine where to strike to oust more Repubs.

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by: IHateBush @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 22:53:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Read your first blog post

Found it fascinating that the Democrats are now winning in Bay Ridge (used to be heavily Repub) but are getting slaughtered in the Orthodox Jewish areas.  Do you know how well Gore did in ADs 25, 47,48,49?  I'm guessing he won them all with Lieberman on the ticket.  

Also surprised that Obama won every Queens district, were these areas gerrymandered heavily?  I figured McCain would win at least one district there, in particular Anthony Seminerio's 38th.

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by: IHateBush @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 23:02:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Boy the 37th and 38th have changed

Those areas were the backbone of the Conservative Party in NYC in Queens.  There must have been a ton of immigration into those areas, for Obama to win 82 and 71% there.

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by: IHateBush @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 23:05:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They are, but not really for party purposes

really for racial purposes. I live in Seminerio's district, it's very diverse, there's a lot of Hispanics and South Asians in this district as well as blue collar Italians, Irish and Polish. At lot of the old conservatives who lived in Semenerio's district left in the last 10-15 years for Long Island, Florida, or Arizona. Some just moved down into Pfeffer's district, AD 23, which is more conservative thanks to Howard Beach.

Gore did win all those Brooklyn districts, but turnout was much lower and his numbers are actually much lower in the African-American districts where Obama won over 95% with high turnout. Gore won 80%-85% on lower turnout.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 23:59:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Update: AD results

I plan to have Bronx up tomorrow, Manhattan on Thursday, Staten Island on Friday. I will also have PDFs of the results made by me...once my parter in crime gets to making those PDFs (he has software on his computer, I don't).

Concerning the State Senate districts in Nassau and Suffolk, I have looked at some raw data and made estimations . It looks like Obama certainly carried the two districts on Long Island held by the Democrats as well as SD-1 (Ken LaValle) and SD-5 (Marcellino), while SD-6 (Hannon) and SD-10 (Skelos) were REALLY close. I can't make an opinion either way, but based on how they're drawn I reason to believe McCain probably narrowly won both of them...but I would need to investigate further.

McCain appears to have won SD-2 (Flanaghan), SD-4 (Johnson) and SD-8 (Fuschillo). Once I get precicent data, I could go in further.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 00:21:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is cool!

I wish I could do the same for the California state leg districts, but I am missing Fresno, San Joaquin, and Tulare Counties.

I am also trying to get the presidential results by Board of Equalization district, but I can't get the results for districts 1 or 2 because Santa Barbara County, which is split between those districts, hasn't released that data.

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by: californianintexas @ Thu Mar 19, 2009 at 09:41:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wallace, Jr.

As racist as his father?  I mean, his father repented at the end of his life.  From Jr.'s Wikipedia article, it doesn't seem like he has.

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by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 21:26:27 PM UTC

Wallace Jr

Wallace Jr has never used race as a wedge and performed just as well as other mainstream Alabama Dems when he was a Democrat.  He did make an ill-advised appearance to the Conservative Citizens Council, but Wallace Jr is generally a populist and would probably still be in statewide office today if not picking a fight with some of the big utilites and standing up for middle-lower income Alabamians.

It would be easy (but not fair) to paint the sone with the brush of the father, but I don't think the facts bare it out.

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by: zac @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 00:25:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

George Wallace Jr.?

I know that Wallace apologised for his segregationism in his old age, but he never lost that association. I can't help but think that the national Republican Party will not be eager to back a candidate who brings up that many associations that will really not aid their brand.

I obviously have no idea how credible a candidate he'd be, but I don't think they'll embrace him with open arms.

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by: Englishlefty @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 21:32:36 PM UTC

Well that one can be tricky

Wouldn't you say Senator Byrd has done everything to make amends for his past associations?  I think he has.  If you give Byrd a pass I think Wallace deserves one as well.  Ya, I know Wallace's actions left a deeper mark, but associations are still associations that can never be entirely erased.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 21:36:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Though I think your point is valid

The GOP will definately NOT want Wallace on the ballot.  It would almost certainly drive AA turnout through the roof if Wallace made the general election ballot.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 21:39:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It should be noted ...

That when Wallace Sr. ran in 1982, he received a majority of the AA vote for Governor.  Of course, that was as a Democrat.    

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by: vicupstate @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 23:05:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The opposition was a stone cold racist

Republican mayor of Montgomery Emory Folmar.

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by: IHateBush @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 23:06:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also in primary

In the 82 primary runoff against George McMillan (the generally more liberal Lt Gov) Wallace also carried some majority black counties and was competitive enough with black voters statewide to eek out a statewide win.

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by: zac @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 00:21:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We haven't given everyone who has made amends a pass.

We refused Nixon's conservative Justices in the early seventies not because they were conservative but because they were former segregationists.  George Wallace will always be judged for what he did, not only because he was a segregationist but because of the flamboyant way in which he attacked blacks.  He came out against segregation once it was no longer socially acceptable to be for it--too little, too late.

But Byrd, whatever his flaws, was never as sickeningly open with racism.  He was a victim of a racist society--Wallace was a leading player in it.  As he explained, he joined the Klan because "suddenly lights flashed in my mind! Someone important had recognized my abilities! I was only 23 or 24 years old, and the thought of a political career had never really hit me. But strike me that night, it did."  He did participate in the opposition to the civil rights movement in the '60s, but his about face came much earlier than Wallace's:  he voted for the Civil Rights Act of 1968, as Wallace campaigned on the platform of "segregation today, segregation tomorrow, and segregation forever".  So it's an apples to oranges comparison, in my opinion.

As for the merits of his son, Jr. is a prominent member of the CoCC, a white supremacist organization.  That's what really counts here.

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by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 22:40:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How cool would it be

If Folsom Jr. beat Wallace Jr. in a Governor's race?  

For those who don't know Folsom Sr. was Governor of Alabama a couple terms before Wallace Sr. and was one of the few good guys in those days in the old south.  Wallace Sr. was also Folsom Sr's campaign manager early in his career.  The two broke apart from one another when Wallace became a flaming bigot.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 23:22:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

True

Also, WV had practially no blacks.  The effect of the klan on that state never was all that much compared to a state like Alabama.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 23:25:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Check out his wikipedia article:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G...

"In June 2005 he opened up the first day of the annual national convention of the Council of Conservative Citizens (CofCC), a conservative group that critics describe as "white supremacist". This was not Wallace's first interaction with the CofCC; he gave speeches to the CofCC once in 1998 and twice in 1999. He has also appeared as a guest on The Political Cesspool, a white nationalist radio talk show that is affiliated with the Tennessee chapter of the CofCC."

Doesn't sound like he's learned the lessons of his father.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 23:11:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That Virginia article is ridiculously one-sided

Bunch of quotes from Tom Davis but nothing from any Democrat. Anyway...

VA-02: Stolle is only a moderate now that the real moderates in the state Senate left or lost primaries in 2007. He's also considering a run for Virginia Beach Sheriff now that Paul Lanteigne is retiring. Lanteigne, incidentally, is one to watch -- he's well-respected (except by the wingnut base) and seems to be getting the itch to go somewhere else, as he unsuccessfully ran for the Republican nomination for an open House of Delegates seat a few months back. I'm skeptical of his ability to win a primary against a well-funded right-winger, though.

VA-11: Tom Davis is deluded if he thinks Northern Virginia is going to magically skip back to the Republican fold. I don't think Connolly is going to be seriously challenged here on out.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue Mar 17, 2009 at 22:40:12 PM UTC

worrisome generic polls for 2010

NPR:  42-42
Ras:  41-39 GOP

Both likely voters.  Is this 1994 all over again?
In both of these polls, independentd are swinging back to the GOP.

One problem is the AIG crisis, though the latest developments are fully reflected in these polls.  We need to give a lot more consideration that the fundementals have swung away from the Democrats, and 2010 will be an unfriendly year.

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by: mikeel @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 02:40:11 AM UTC

Not sure of NPR's record

But Rasmussen has been making a fool of itself this year.  They consistently have Obama's approvals far lower than any other major pollster and have run countless push-polls to make republicans look good.  I've lost a lot of respect for them as a pollster.

Neary every poll I've seen gives Congressional Dems a 10-25 point advantage in approval over Congressional Repubs.  There's no way in hell Republicans are even in the generic ballot unless all other pollsters are wrong.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 02:56:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

BillNolan is that you?

We're DOOOOOOOOOOOOMED.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 03:17:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not BillNolan

But mikeel is definitely a glass half empty poster.

Again, Rasmussen is just a terrible pollster when it comes to anything other than direct candidate versus candidate, horserace questions. He had McCain and Repubs in general leading on the economy on several ocassions very late in the last cycle.

I don't know if it his own political bias creeping in or if he is just using crappy methods but it cannot be a coincidence that Bush job approval was always several points higher in Ras than literally any other pollster and now Obama approval in Ras is always several points lower than every other company.

All that being said of course the fundamentals have moved. Dems are now in power thus responsibilty has shifted. But if the economy turns around then blame can become reward.  

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 13:21:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And besides

So Repubs win the House vote in 2010 by two points. What exactly does that get them? Between ten and fifteen seats? So frickin' what! They'll lose more seats in the Senate whatever since the map is so stacked against them and getting more Dems in that chamber is much more important anyway because it takes 60 votes to blow your nose over there. Then by 2011 at the latest the economy turns around because of Obama/Dem policies thus the president is reelected in a massive landslide with big coattails resulting in extensive and lasting progessive change in the second term. Hows that for glass half full?!

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 13:51:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hopefully Palin

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 14:53:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And I think that's what will happen

I just don't see any republican on the horizon who can win in 2012.  Against Palin I do think we'd see the biggest popular vote landslide since at least 1984 if not 1972.  Though with things the way they are any Dem, including Obama, cannot win 49 states.  400 EV's is probably about the cap nowadays.

The big issue in 2012 is once again likely the economy, which should be on the way up by then, if not much sooner.  And if it's not, well... we all have bigger things to worry about than elections.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 15:09:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It could be the 1990's all over again!!!!

Just 2010 won't be as bad for the Dems as 1994 and 2012 will be better than 1996. And then this president will keep his flies zipped...

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 15:15:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is entertaining

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comm...

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 15:16:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Now this is funny

"Candidates like Mitt Romney, who now spoke with a southern twang and carried a pitchfork..."

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 15:19:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And now actually wearing his flip-flops

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 15:20:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I actually found that

being promoted at OpenLeft...which you'd probably want to avoid this week.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 16:24:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm more concerned with the comments at the link

Who knew The Guardian's readership had declined to that extent?!

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Mar 18, 2009 at 16:34:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Too many ultra red states

For Obama to win anywhere close to 49. Even with Tancredo the GOP would still win ID, WY, OK, AL, UT, MS, LA, KY, probably NE, AK, WV, TN, KS, AR, SC..

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Thu Mar 19, 2009 at 06:04:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Such is the legacy of Karl Rove's polarization strategy

Though granted, in return, it also created a bunch of safe blue states.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Mar 21, 2009 at 16:14:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]