David

please, please run for governor.

We haven't had this bad of choices since the LA-02 runoff.  

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by: Populista @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:27:36 PM CDT

Look for an announcement

On Monday.

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by: DavidNYC @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 21:51:58 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

patterson or davidnyc?

also, is there anyone else besides cuomo and patterson?  isn't there a litegov, or does he have to wait until (if) he's renominated?  also, what about rep mccarthy?  if gillibrand seems to properly partisan, might she go after someone who deserves to lose?

being normal is for the mediocre.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:32:50 PM CDT

I've always had my doubts anyway

But if Murphy wins NY-20 then McCarthy, Maloney or whoever would be crazy to give up their seat in the House because they will lose badly.

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by: conspiracy @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:37:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Challenging Gillibrand I mean

Governor is something different entirely if Cuomo doesn't run.

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by: conspiracy @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:38:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think it's safe to say Cuomo's running.

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:44:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Gillibrand isn't getting primaried anyway

There's really no reason...she hasn't taken any controversial positions. A primary against her would be seen as revenge for not getting picked or something.

A lot of McCarthy's primary threat was to keep Gillibrand from moving to the right. It was pressure on gun control, it wasn't serious. McCarthy can't win a primary against a sitting Senator on one issue unless that sitting Senator is unpopular and people haven't formed an opinion yet on Gillibrand, but there really isn't anything to guess people would turn negative on her yet.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:39:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree

I'm saying that playing kingmaker in NY-20 would finally put the nail into the coffin of any lingering doubt.

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by: conspiracy @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:45:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

oh yeah

but what I also have been seeing from the media in the last few weeks is they're noticing Gillibrand's insane popularity Upstate, which if it leads to a Murphy victory may cause them to back down, you're right. I've talked to more than a few Democratic operatives who are afraid a primary challenge will pit the Upstate/Downstate party against each other and they don't want that. Some Downstate Democrats have been clear that their desire to primary Gillibrand has nothing to do with issue, but rather their dislike for having someone from Upstate in such a powerful position. (I've heard a Democratic leader from Brooklyn outright say "A young mother from the boondocks shouldn't be representing Brooklyn")

There's no ideological reason for a primary, there's only a geographic reason. There's currently a battle brewing among Downstate Democrats who feels like that person from Brooklyn or like the former leaders who don't see any reason for an Upstate/Downstate divide in the party.

Regardless of what happens I expect the next Democratic nominee for Governor to either be from Upstate or if it's Cuomo, to pick someone from Upstate to be on the ticket in case that divide happens in the Senate primary.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:53:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

How?

53% of registered Deems are from NY City.  What does voting in the Hudso River valley say about NYC?

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by: David Kowalski @ Sun Mar 15, 2009 at 03:39:01 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Senator for the whole state not just NYC

53% isn't exactly monolithic either particularly when Gillibrand is uber-popular upstate. I think money, endorsements and momentum mean much more than a single issue but we shall see.

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by: conspiracy @ Sun Mar 15, 2009 at 06:45:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

KG also has some support in the City.

Either one of the CMs (McCarthy or Maloney) will have a really hard time running against KG.

The Albany Project. The best damned blog about New York politics.

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by: NYBri @ Sun Mar 15, 2009 at 08:55:46 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Two things

1.) Turnout. 52% of registered Dems may be in NYC, but they tend to turnout in lower numbers.

2.) Support. Some of those Democrats are more moderate and Gillibrand will have support down there.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sun Mar 15, 2009 at 09:58:55 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

McCarthy for Governor?

She'd get slaughtered...and she's not really any better. There's no Lt. Governor because Paterson doesn't get to nominate one. He WAS the Lt. Governor.

There really aren't any good progressive choices for Governor right now. Tom Suozzi may come close

But don't let anyone fool you, Giuliani is running, it's pretty much an open secret. Cuomo may be necessary to win at this point.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:37:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Do you think Rudy...

...runs if someone like Cuomo pulls the trigger on Paterson? Seems doubtful considering his previous less than stellar efforts at office beyond NYC. I say if he wants to become a poor mans Richard Nixon and lose a gubernatorial race after coming off a failed presidential bid then fair enough.

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by: conspiracy @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:43:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Maybe not

Rudy doesn't like to lose, so if Cuomo runs, Rudy could bow out, but honestly, this poll only shows him down by 12. I could see Rudy getting in for pure vanity and with the hope Democrats would be unlikely to turn out for not being excited by the ticket. Rudy was hinting at running for Governor last fall when Paterson was still fairly popular.

But Giuliani IS still popular in New York, let's not pretend he isn't.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:46:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Make that 15 points back

And Cuomo over the crucial 50% threshold. My prediction is Giuliani only runs if nobody primaries Paterson. In other words he doesn't run.

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by: conspiracy @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:56:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I thought the 6 was a 9

true, but Cuomo is only at 51%. Giuliani has told a lot of people in Republican circles he was running, so, I don't know, but as long as Cuomo hasn't announced, we need to assume Rudy's running. Rudy could make a race against another Democrat competitive and let's no forget the potential racial aspect of the Democratic primary. Rudy may want to take advantage of that possibility.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 18:59:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

As always we shall see

Particularly since Mario may have passed down his dithering.

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by: conspiracy @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 19:04:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What's your evidence

For your hard, factual, no-wavering assertion that "Giuliani is running"? If you have links, cite them. If it's an opinion, say that.

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by: DavidNYC @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 21:53:45 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

His own people

have been telling journalist friends I know at the New York Post, New York Times, WOR News and WINS that he's running and is waiting for mid to late 2009 to announce.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 22:31:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

No more Lt. Gov,

That was Paterson's job. When an LG succeeds a Governor during a term, there is no provision for replacing him/her until the next election. (Obviously the state constitution should be changed.)

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by: DavidNYC @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 21:55:17 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

So who would be next in line then?

The Senate Majority Leader or is it someone else?

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.

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by: DGM @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 23:55:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yep

State Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith

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by: Nico @ Sun Mar 15, 2009 at 00:53:30 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hmmm

I'd say the poll is not as disastrous as his term...

Mad At Thad:  A Blog Devoted To Ousting Rep. Thaddeus McCotter, Republican - Michigan

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by: Sean Fitzpatrick @ Sat Mar 14, 2009 at 19:13:02 PM CDT