A few thoughts

FL-10 --- I can't imagine that a formerly powerful chair like Bill Young is finding it fun to be in the minority for the foreseeable future -- I'm hoping that 2010 is the time he will finally bail out (although he may be waiting until post-re-districting 2012 if he thinks that somehow will help the Republicans with drawing a map.)

FL-13 -- Vern Buchanan is clearly waiting to see if Christ is going to run for Senate before making a decision about his future. Here's hoping Vern runs and we recruit a strong Democratic candidate (Not Jennings or Schneider!)

FL-17 -- a host a state Reps, state Senators and local officials will make for a very very crowded primary... Senator Frederica Wilson would probably be the favourite if she runs, but 68 may be a little old to start a freshmen term in congress (although others have done it).  There is a good chance the district will send a Haitian-American to Congress with 2 strong perspective candidates (State Rep Yolly Roberson, State Rep Phillip Brutus - this would be a huge political step for the Haitian community..

FL 22 - Klein was less than totally impressive last time out (54% in a very strong Democratic year) -- he needs to work his district harder to make it safe. Not sure a Senate run would be a good thing for him -- but if it is, I imagine that there are a number of other local elected officials from both parties who would make a strong run for it.

FL 25 et al - I'd say there is a huge distinction between Joe Garcia and Christine Jennings -- Jennings' 3rd run (remember, she lost a primary to Jan Schneider once before) was tainted by the perception of her as a "sore loser" from the drawn out contest of the 2006 election... despite Buchanan's many weaknesses, this made her a much harder sell in the district. Garcia won't have that kind of baggage on his second time out.  I think he is worth investing in for a second run.

I'd venture that the political future of FL 18, 21, and 25 depend heavily on events in Cuba and American Cuban policy... if loosening family travel and remittances happens over Republican opposition, it will help the Democratic brand considerably among Cuban-American voters. In the meantime, political events on the island could dramatically influence attitudes here. The changing attitudes of young Cuban voters, coupled with the growth of non-Cuban Latinos may mean change is possible.

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by: terje @ Mon Mar 09, 2009 at 21:16:37 PM UTC

Nice pun.

"Christ"

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 00:13:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Re: Just ask Christine Jennings what happens to second time candidates

You could also ask Eric Massa, Larry Kissell, and Mary Jo Kilroy.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 01:56:02 AM UTC

Not to mention Nancy Boyda (pre-2008), Jerry McNerney, Jeanne Shehean, Richard Nixon post-1968, etc.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 12:22:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dan Maffei, Mark Warner

People may forget but Mark Warner ran for the Senate in 1996 and nearly won.  The 2008 race was a re-run for the same seat (although John Warner retired).

Dan Maffei won in a second try for his seat, agin the incumbent Republican retired.  

At least two others were elected to the House after lsing for a higher office: Dina Titus and Chellie Pingree.

Tom McClintock ran for various things often losing before being elected to his House seat last November.

Baron Hill won, lost and no has won in both 2006 and 2008 against the same opponent.

Ciro Rodriguez won, lost and won with a win and a lossx in the same election cycle (2006).

Cynthia McKinney had a win lose win lose in Georgia.

Nick Lampson went win lose win lose as well.

It was a primary, but Donna Edwards lost to Al Wynn close and then beat him like a drum.

Out of the 1994 Democratic losers Walter Capps (CA) won a re-match as did David Price (NC).

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by: David Kowalski @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 18:15:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Some guy named Obama

Got destroyed in a Congressional run something like 65-35% by Rep. Bobby Rush in his first run for public office.

Bill Clinton lost a clase race for Congress back in the mid 70's in his first run.

And don't forget now Governor Strickland of Ohio.  He lost his House seat in 1994 and won it back in 1996.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 18:32:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That guy with that funny name

Didn't people call him "Bobby" or something?

Yeah, I wonder what he's doing now...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Wed Mar 11, 2009 at 22:37:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

aggressive progressive

I think the reputation of being a fighter is a good thing, even for people who don't agree with you. If the national mood turns more conservative then Grayson would be in a better position than a more passive progressive. I think Alan Grayson is the most impressive new Congressman in the entire class of 2008. I could see him as a future Speaker, or even President.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 02:04:12 AM UTC

President Grayson

it's got a nice sound to it

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by: fatcathobbes @ Tue Mar 10, 2009 at 05:56:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]