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PA-Sen: Toomey Will Run

by: James L.

Thu Mar 05, 2009 at 7:17 PM EST


Wow:

The Allentown Morning Call reported Thursday that two friends of Toomey's have said the Club for Growth chief has decided to enter the race. [...]

The paper quotes Richard Thulin, leader of the Lehigh Valley Republican Network, saying in an e-mail to supporters that "Pat's formal announcement will be forthcoming.

"Interesting news," he wrote. "Pat Toomey asked me to let you know that he has decided to challenge Arlen Specter."

Reached late Thursday, Thulin confirmed the details of the e-mail, as first reported by the Morning Call.

A Pennsylvania GOP source confirmed that he has talked to Toomey in recent days, and Toomey said he would run.

Like a lot of other people, I had assumed that Toomey's recent sabre rattling was not really indicative of a desire to run, but rather a desire to ramp up the pressure on Specter to toe the wingnut line. But with Toomey now throwing down, this could be one hell of a race -- especially if you believe the latest polling.
James L. :: PA-Sen: Toomey Will Run
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PA-Sen: Toomey Will Run | 85 comments
Hallelujah!
This is going to be a fun election cycle!
Yes! Get ready to move PA to the Tossup category
in the Senate Race Ratings.
Due to stimulus, probably
Prediction: a bunch of Democrats and Indies register Republican to attempt to save Specter's tuckus. We'll see whether they can overwhelm the wingnuts in the GOP primary next May.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
They should let him go
Toomey can't beat a Democrat.  We'll end up with someone better than Specter.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Too presumptious
It's way too early to say that. We have no idea what 2010's going to be like or how the dynamics of this particular race are going to play out a year in advance, this isn't going to be 2004 all over again. That said, I'm quietly confident.
[ Parent ]
Depends
if Specter continues to support Obama's agenda on energy and health care, then yes.  If he joins the obstructionists on these issues, then the Dems may not bother.

On the flip side, if the stimulus becomes unpopular, then independents may not bother.

[ Parent ]
Finally some good election news
Needed after our best candidates in AZ and KS had to go run major governmental departments.  

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.
Paging Allyson Schwartz
Time to jump in.  We all know Toomey is going to win the primary.
If Specter were smart
He'd jump switch, switch parties and move well left in his voting.  It's by far his best chance at re-election with Toomey running.
Specter could use the old Reagan line, only flipped around:
"I didn't leave the Democratic Party, the party left me."
[ Parent ]
That's the line I had been using since I switched in 02.
"I didn't leave the Republican Party. The Republican Party left me."

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
He originally was a Democrat

[ Parent ]
Specter or Toomey?
I assume you mean Specter.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Specter
But it seems to have been in the 1960s before he was elected to any office.
[ Parent ]
I'm glad Toomey wasn't running during the stimulus vote.
Toomey not running got us the last vote we needed to pass the stimulus.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
Disagree
If Specter had voted against it, Ted Kennedy would have been flown in to vote for the stimulus and it would have passed.
[ Parent ]
Terrible position for Specter..
Does he move to the right for the primary?
What will happen to him in the general if he does move right?
That's it
Move left or stay where he is and get eaten alive by the crazies.

Move right to placate said crazies and lose the general.  

He either has 1) appeal to whatever shreds of reason there are left in the PA Republican Party 2) switch parties and move left 3) become an independent and run a three-way race 4) retire

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Unless Specter
Goes over the line with his move right, I think he has such a reservoir of goodwill among Indies and moderate Dems that I don't know how much his shift right would hurt him in a general.
[ Parent ]
It will hurt.
   He got huge labor support in 2004.  If Specter votes against EFCA, labor will try to get his head on a platter (especially since that would be a flip-flop).  Labor is strong in Pennsylvania.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
The gods are merciful
Likely pickups: NH, MO, OH, KY, NC, and now PA.

And it's only March 2009.  We have a real good shot at a veto-proof majority, not that we're gonna need it.

Nice

I don't see how Arlen can win
I really don't.  Arlen just barely beat Toomey in 2004.  And the GOP moderates have flocked from the party, switching to independent or Democrat since 2004.  I really don't see how it's even possible for him to beat Toomey in 2010.
If I were him
I would get myself put on the ballot as an independent.  
[ Parent ]
If I were Specter
I would tell the Republican establishment to either force Toomey out, or that I would either a. retire immediately, or b. run as an independent and may caucus with the Dems.
[ Parent ]
The Republican establishment
is not going to stop the Club for Growth.  
[ Parent ]
Leverage?
What leverage does the establishment have over Toomey?  He leads the Club for Growth [of the Democratic Majority], which is pretty much at war with the establishment.
[ Parent ]
Registration stats
In April 2004 (presumably primary time) there were 3,230,496 registered Republicans in Pennsylvania.  In November 2008 there were 3,243,391.  While republicans edged up by less than 13,000 voters Democrats soared by more than 774,000 going from 3,706,122 to 4,4480,694.

If anything, Specter needs to swing left for the general election rather than being pushed right.

Toomey can't win statewide.  Even Specter would have a heck of a time.  His age alone makes a grueling primary and a tough general election very difficult.  The Club For Growth seeems to achieve more in knocking off its enemies by forcing them into retirement than by winning primaries.

[ Parent ]
Excuse my n00bishness, but --
-- would Specter consider running as an Independent, a la Joe the Lieberman? I'm not knowledgeable about Pennsylvania politics, but I know the guy's got quite a war chest.  
He should.
   That would be his best chance.  But Pennsylvania has very few registered independents.  Specter can't rely on registered independents like Lieberman did in Connecticut.  Pennsylvania is a much more partisan state.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
But
Specter has been there since the 1980's.  His name recognition should be nearly universal so I'd predict that wouldnt matter too much.  Enough Republicans and Democrats would switch to vote for him the General, not necessarily in the primary.
[ Parent ]
Yes...
   There's a lot of straight-ticket voting in Pennsylvania.  The winner in a 3-way race would not get 40%.  It would be fun to watch.
  If Specter were to run as independent, I'd be a little worried.  The Republican grassroots are bonkers for Toomey.  We would need an exciting Democratic candidate.  I think Republicans would be solidly be behind Toomey.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Here's one no one has questioned
What if he just says, fuck you I'm too old for this shit and just retires?  I would hope he would use a tone much like the one I used and give the GOP a big FU!

There is no way he wins a primary, no way Toomey beats a Democrat.

I think the only real way this gets complicated and could screw us over in the end is if he were to run as an Independent.  Please dont, Im sure it would only help but you never know.

Seriously, what the hell is the Republican Party thinking?  Please, continue to make your party smaller.  I dont mind gobbling up all your seats, even if they will have shitty Dems in them.  (Not that PA will).

Make it another huge run at senate seats again!  WOOT!

He might retire
Even if he is already planning to retire, I don't think he will announce it until 2010. He's a more effective Senator if his colleagues think he's running for reelection. I think there is a 50/50 chance Specter will retire in 2010, and it would be even more likely if Toomey polls well.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
He'd have to work harder if he's running for re-election.
Fundraising calls.  There's no way he go through with that kind of ordeal if he's planning on dropping out.  

And if he's not working to get re-elected, he'd be telegraphing retirement anyways.

[ Parent ]
PA
I just don't understand why Specter would stay as a Republican.  Steele is saying he might withhold funds, polling shows Democrats like him more than Republicans, Toomney is running and hes supported a bunch of Obama's legislation.  What in the world would keep him as a Republican if he wants another term?

29/D/Male/NY-01
Quibble.
How often does the RNC get involved in a primary battle?  If Cornyn said something like that, it'd be a different matter.
[ Parent ]
Money no object
Specter is a top-notch fund raiser.  Last I heard he already had about 4 million in his campaign fund.

He has an ego as big as all outdoors, so he would never admit he could lose and he will not quit.

But if labor turns on him, he's toast.

Question
if Specter loses the primary could he run in the general as a independent ala Lieberman.
I believe that the filing deadline
would prevent this. If he's going to run as an independent (and that might be his best option), he'd have to make that choice sooner rather than later.
[ Parent ]
This is correct.
I think we can discount any independent run.
[ Parent ]
Question:
In the presidential primary for 2008, I know the rule in Pennsylvania was, you could vote in the Republican primary if you are a registered Republican, Democratic party if you're a registered Democrat.  Now, was that rule new or was that the same rule in 2004 when Toomey challenged Specter?
PA has had a closed primary
just about since time began.  
[ Parent ]
Specter just lucked out
that there were a bunch of registered Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs who are socially moderate to liberal and have supported Specter in the past, while voting Dem in other races.  We'll see if they are there for him again (I doubt it).
[ Parent ]
You'd think a lot of them would have changed registration for the 2008 primary... I hope enough did.

[ Parent ]
In case anyone cared...
Specter v. Toomey in 2004 by municipality. Green for Toomey, Red for Specter.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Awesome
By county here.  
[ Parent ]
Weird
I wouldn't have expected so much of the T to have voted for Specter.
[ Parent ]
RE: the T and Specter
Look at the county map that Andgarden linked to.

Some things really stick out there.

Both Centre and Montour County, Toomey won by less than 1%. Union County he won by just slightly more than 2%.

Toomey won his own district, of course.

Specter won so much of the T because Specter won the areas that are really Republican to their very bones.

Toomey won Lancaster and York for the same reason he won so much of the soutwest, along with Mercer and Clarion.

He won the fundy vote.

It is no surprise that the candidate that ran in the GOP primary for the 5th district that was the fundy preacher would be from Clarion County.  Mercer County even has a fundy college there.

Up through Butler, Mercer, Armstrong, Clarion, there is a sort of fundy patch present.

That shows up on the more detailed map quite well.

Look at those other southwest counties.

Look at Westmoreland and Cambria.  Democrats easily outnumber Republicans.  This is clearly true in Allegheny County.

What type of people would go out of their way to be Republican there?

True, you got some of those rich ones out there, but even they have a real Calvinistic, heel-clicking, moralistic streak to their heartless economics and other policies, and they still buy into the whole ramming morals down people's throats against their wishes.

However, how many of the other people really are Republican because they are the people in those areas most single-mindedly obsessed with moral issues?

That is the problem for Specter, and it is even more exaggerated in the primaries in those parts.

The most obsessively moralizing people down there are the most likely to show up at the Republican polls.  They have no other reason for being Republicans or for being involved in politics at all, for that matter.

The type of anti-abortion voter that would go for him unfortunately for him are registered Democrats.  That is why they are still Democrats.

The Drug Court in Blair County helps people convicted there of drug use and possession offenses pull their lives together and move forward.

It does quite a bit of good.  They lend money to them for various purposes.  Maybe they will get money for further education, for job training.  Maybe it would be for housing.

Well, recently, one woman got a loan to get an abortion.

That caused a shitload of controversy.

Judge Kopriva was the judge who authorized the loan, in case anyone here is interested.

That is not going to die down any time soon.

Remember the whole Eichelberger/Jubelirer primary fight a couple of years ago?  That was all about abortion.  The long time pro-choice Jubelirer ended spending quite a bit of time babbling about how he REALLY was pro-life all those years!  It didn't work too well.  Even state pro-life activists got involved, defending Jubelirer on that basis.

Outside of his old district, Toomey won the defenders of the Christian police state, whereas Specter won the old-time Republican vote.

I remember one activist who coordinating Toomey campaigning up near Penn State was a woman who, when asked to support another Republican in a different race, responded that she had to pray on it so she would know which candidate God wanted her to support.

Apparently, God told her not to support that candidate.

Unlike the average Toomeyite, I don't have any direct line to the divine.

I am not surprised that Specter did so well in the T.

Most of those people have been there for 4, 5 or more generations, and have been Republican just as long.

There are plenty of people there that are Republican because they are Republican.

I am somewhat divided.

I really want to pick up this seat, but I really want to give the fundy wackos, those obsessed with who is righteous and who is not, who are the real Christians and the real Americans, and are the fake ones, a real good kick in the teeth.

Specter losing the primary gives them a boost, but Specter pulling it off would be that nice kick.

[ Parent ]
I generally agree with you
but the Toomey supporters were not just fundies and social right-wingers.  There were a lot of traditional movement conservatives who just hated Specter because he was a liberal.

I worked with these people for a couple weeks in 2004 as a volunteer for Toomey in the T(I played some mischief and switched parties to vote and volunteer for Toomey with the idea of electing a Democrat in the fall.)

[ Parent ]
The other reason why Specter did so well in the T
Bush and Santorum's endorsements made a big big difference among the long time Republicans in this area.  If not for these endorsements, Toomey would have done better in the T and won the primary.

I really don't think Specter has much of chance in 2010, he doesn't have the endorsement of two popular (among the GOP base) wingnuts (Bush and Santorum), and 200K suburban moderate Repubs and RINOs switched parties to vote for Clinton or Obama in 2008, and are not coming back.

My guess is that Toomey will win with at least 55%.

[ Parent ]
RE: Bush/Man-on-Dog endorsements and the T
You noted that the endorsements of Bush and Santorum helped him in the T.

However, that works only in areas that would be swayed by such endorsements, areas that are more Republican in the more traditional sense.  

In the southwestern part of the state and some other pockets that went for Toomey in the western part of the state, you had plenty of activists who were extremely angry with Santorum and Bush, making all sorts of threats.

Those endorsements didn't sway those voters.  They just pissed them off.

I am not sure where in the T you worked, I am curious about that.

I have no doubt that there are old time conservatives in the T who worked for Toomey.

That was part of the point.  The GOP has a different flavor there, and Toomey lost those parts.

The GOP base is not as base there.

Given that Specter's moderate base in the southeast is shrinking as you noted, I really don't give him much chance of pulling it off.

Of course, someone could pull off a reverse of the Rendellican movement just to save his hide.  That cannot be ruled out completely.

However, is there any Republican that could sway voters in the T to support Specter?  Could Corbett, whilst running for Governor, get involved?  Anyone else?

I have no doubt that those endorsements did help, and that it made the difference.

However, that proves what I was saying.  

Toomey did not keep enough of the non-fundy/hyper-moralizer vote.

I didn't say he didn't win any of them, but that the areas that he did win were the areas where they were not.

The fact that such voters are swayed by such and not pissed off shows that they are different from the baser base in other parts.

[ Parent ]
I volunteered in Centre and Clinton Co
Specter won't be able to do what Rendell did.  There just isn't enough enthusiasm for Specter to get Democrats to switch and vote for him in the primary, especially if Specter moves to the right in the next few months.

On the other hand, if Specter decides to be a real maverick and vote with Obama on a good deal of legislation, then there could be a bunch of Democrats who switch to vote for Specter, but he would lose the entire Republican base in that gambit.

Corbett or any other Repub running for Governor would be dumb to openly endorse in the Senate race, they are competing for the same vote, and if they piss off Toomey supporters, they may lose their primary as well.

[ Parent ]
RE: Centre/Clinton
Interesting.

So you know Krista Middleton?

She is still Centre County's GOP secretary.

She is the one who needed God to tell her who to support.

Steve Miller, as you know, at least used to work for Jake Corman, who is so unlike his father, sad to say, was an obsessive party purger type.

GT was no different when he was the GOP county chairman there.

Steve Dersham was very happy to lose the majority of county commissioners in Centre rather than have Sue Mascola as a member.

She dared to defeat Exarchos in the GOP primary.

At least she does not look like she is always constipated.

In State College, you have look GOP precinct captains who openly refuse to support candidates of their party in the general who do not take sufficiently grand positions supporting the total outlawing of every abortion right now.

Some of the GOP local activists are completely balmy.

You wonder if Byberry closing years ago explains what they are doing roaming about freely.

Yes, Joyce Haas is pro-choice.

I wonder what she thinks about when she goes to their local party meetings.

I am not sure if Mike Russell has any position in the local GOP anymore, but he did then.

Everything was a non-negotiable moral position for him, whether it be opposition to the Iraq War, outlawing all abortion, or stopping gay marriage.

Yes, many times he refused to support the GOP candidate.

They are so often never conservative for him.  Apparently, he and Joyce, as you would expect, did not get along.  He went out of his way to make sure she saw him with anti-abortion buttons or messages or pamphlets.

Sue Rogacs was the state anti-abortion activist who went down to Blair County to prove that Jubelirer had always been anti-abortion.

It did not work, but apparently, and she is a very active Republican, she is incapable of debating politics on the basis of non-social issues.

I am interested by your working in Centre.

Doing more work for Toomey this time?

You probably are correct about reverse Rendellican idea.

Also, just the fear of losing the primary by pissing off the Toomeyites is probably enough to stop Corbett or anyone else supporting Specter.

However, if I were in any position of influence in the GOP, I would recruit other candidates to run as the socon candidate, a Clymer or a Luksik or someone else who might be credible, in the primary against Specter.  They might not defeat Toomey, but they could split his vote up with other candidates in the mix.

[ Parent ]
If Corbett doesn't
Face significant primary opposition, I could see him possibly endorsing Specter. If Gerlach or some of the other credible candidates do indeed run, I expect them to remain neutral.

But if Corbett faces nominal primary opposition, I could see him taking the calculated risk of endorsing Specter. He may alienate a lot of people, but they believe that by election day those people will come home. And, the swing voters who will decide the election he believes he has a better chance of reaching them if he's running with Specter vs Toomey

[ Parent ]
Although the abortion issue wasn't the whole story
A very hardcore pro-life area in the state is arguably the Scranton Wilkes-Barre area. Yet Specter won Lackawanna and Luzerne Cos handily among Republicans (they are pretty strongly Democratic to begin with.)
[ Parent ]
RE: Scranton-Wilkes-Barre
It may be strongly pro-life, but Obama was the first to get more than 60% of Lackawanna since LBJ, Lackawanna and Luzerne continue to go for Democratic candidates year after year whereas places like Westmoreland our numbers have been sliding away, especially the higher up the ticket you go.

In the last three presidential elections, each time our candidates did better in Lackawanna than in any of the 4 suburban counties around Philly.

In fact, it was the 2nd best county for both Gore and Obama, slipping to #3 behind Allegheny for Kerry.

Of course, Philly will remain #1.

Our one other poster here was correct on this point.

Lackawanna and Luzerne are less obsessed with the issue.  It does not drive the vote as it does in places in the southwest, such as Westmoreland.

Look at Luksik's numbers from her runs.  There is quite a difference from her numbers down there and her numbers up in Lackawanna and Luzerne.

There is a difference between the ones in the northeast and those in the southwest.

Those pro-life voters in the northwest are still Democratic, and still largely voting so.

This bring up another point:

How much of the old time Republican members make up the GOP in Lackawanna and Luzerne?

The problem for Specter in parts of the southwest and some other areas is that whatever had existed of that type of Republicans have been overrun by the fundies and hyper-moralizers.

Look further up the map in the northwestern corner, where Specter won.  You got 2 pro-choice Republican state senators, Jane Earll and Mary Jo White.

There is a reason they are still there.

Two things:

The pro-life voters in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre are not as single-minded about the issue as in the southwest and they are far, far more Democratic really as a result of that.

There hasn't been any overrunning of the GOP there.

It is not so hardcore, and they are not Republican.

Maybe there are "movement conservatives" that don't buy into the socon nonsense.  Whenever I hear people complain about Specter's liberalism, the complaints end up being a bunch of moral rambling in the end, even when it does touch economics.

Given what the ones I've known are always spewing, I would add one word to that nomenclature:

"Bowel"

When Toomey made his trips down to Lancaster to speak to party activists, it was all about social issues.

He went out of his way to court those type of voters.  He deliberately made himself the fundy/socon candidate.

[ Parent ]
Ain't dere an uppity Jorja Cahngressmun named
Westmoreland?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania Democrats
are known for being pro-life. I believe all of Pennsylvania's exurban Democratic representatives are pro-life;

Holden, Murtha, Altmire, Dahlkemper, Carney and I believe Kanjorski too.

Then there's Bob Casey.

Pennsylvania's one of the states that I believe if you put abortion on a statewide referendum, it may well pass, and if it doesn't, you'll find a sizeable number of Democratic voters voting to ban abortion, and a sizeable number of Republican voters voting to keep it legal (although the latter might be changing as they become Democrats and Independents)

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
It won't pass but it might get 45%
The fact that such a ban wouldn't get even 25% in Philly metro would kill it statewide.  

But you are right, a significant number of Democrats would vote yes, and a significant number of Repubs would vote no.  And whatever independents there are would vote heavily no.

[ Parent ]
Ya, it's kinda bizarre
But an abortion ban referendum would probably come closer to passing in Pennsylvania than it did in South Dakota over the past two elections.
[ Parent ]
RE: the Bizarre
I wonder about one thing, though:

How many of those anti-abortion voters really would vote for such a ban if given the chance?

Not that I want to take that type of gamble, but I wonder really how many self-described pro-life voters in Pa would actually vote for it?

There are some areas where I am certain many would feel compelled to vote for it.

However, many of those that did not vote for the bans in South Dakota call themselves pro-life, do they not?

I wonder how well it would really do in some other regions of Pa.

I suspect that there are some pro-life Democrats in office that are very happy to have Roe in the way of doing too much about it.

I am certain that there are some voters that feel the same way.

I know that at a church where some of my mother's relatives attend, everyone groaned when they saw that Bush was going to defeat Kerry in 2004.  

And this was a roomful of the bake sale people there.

However, not that I want to take this risk, but that factor and the Fortress Philly effect that well named IHateBush mentioned, would undoubtedly stop such a ban from happening.

I wonder what would happen if they took a secret poll, and people were able to answer in secret, what type of restriction or regulations regarding abortion they would want in place, and which ones they really would not want.

People sometimes don't vote in secret the way they openly say their positions are.

[ Parent ]
Carney is mildly pro-choice
but votes for most restrictions on abortion.  The rest of them are all pro-life.  
[ Parent ]
Nope, sorry
You want something that will energize suburban women? Put an abortion ban on the ballot.

No way it passes.  

[ Parent ]
A few things
You are confusing the Northwest (Erie) where you have the Repub pro-choice senators, and the Northeast (Scranton Wilkes Barre)

You're right that the pro-lifers in the NE are willing to vote Democratic as they did this year.  Although those in the SW were until the late 1990s as well.  I'm not really sure why Democrats have done much worse in the SW than in the NE, maybe religion has something to do with it, the NE is more Catholic, while the SW is more Baptist.

Toomey talks a good game on the social issues, but I doubt he personally cares about them.  Toomey ran for Congress in 1998 as a pro-choice Repub and switched his position only when he decided to challenge Specter.  He really seems to care about the economic issues, though, and he seems to be a zealously anti-labor.

[ Parent ]
RE: NE and NW
Actually I really was not confusing the two.

I was making a specific point about the NW.

Where those two pro-choice state senators are in the NW is exactly where Toomey did not win out west.

Those two would never be on the GOP ticket in the area that Toomey won to the south.

I was pointing out a division line in their party.

The question about the northeast was similar, as to how much of the old time party still exists in the northeast.

I didn't say how socially liberal they would be, only that, whatever the old GOP party was up there, it obviously was not overrun as it was in the southwest.

I would be curious to know, though.

I remember that Toomey was not merely pro-choice, he was the ONLY defender of the woman's right to choose in that first race, according to HIS OWN campaign.

That is quite a statement.

You are probably right about what he cares about.

I just despise and distrust him for pandering to the worst elements of the GOP base for his own advancement.

[ Parent ]
RE: SW/NE
I am not really sure.

I do know, even in the southwest, it is not uniform, with some of the areas being deep south bad, and you still got other sections that are still voting Democratic even at the presidential level.

Places like Greensburg going for McCain?

That I cannot answer.

[ Parent ]
I'm Surprised...
the counties directly north of the Philly burbs (Alleghany, Schukyll) voted so heavily for Toomey. Obama won, or came close, in most of those counties. That's not a great sign for Specter.  
[ Parent ]
Oh wait...
Isn't Toomey from that area?
[ Parent ]
Toomey's from the Lehigh Valley, Allentown/Bethlehem area


Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
CD-15
Dent's district.  Look at that big green blob.
[ Parent ]
Allegheny County is Pittsburgh and suburbs


Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Must be my early bithday present :-D
March 10th.  Share it with Chuck Norris and like, 4 or 5 people I know.  
Chuck Norris was not "born"
He was unleashed on planet earth to wreak havok and destruction... much like Rahm Emannuel.
[ Parent ]
Not as happy as some here
This time around, Toomey will win.  Specter doesn't have Bush to pull his chestnuts out of the fire.  This is a state that elected Santorum.  So why couldn't they elected another nutjob like Toomey from the opposite side of the state?  I like Allyson Schwartz, but I'm not so sure she'd beat Toomey.  I think Patrick Murphy would.  Not sure about the other possibilities.
lol
Santorum was elected in 1994 by a bare margin...do you really think 2010 is going to be like 1994?

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Exactly
To insinuate that Tomey has more than a longshot chance at beating any halfway credible Democrat in a general election is crazy.  As nrafter said, Santorum only won because it was 1994.  Heck, even if 2010 is almost as bad as 1994 for Dems I doubt Toomey could win statewide.

Toomey winning the PA Senate primary is similar to what would have happened to Laffey in 2006 had he pulled out a primary win against Chafee.  A landslide general election defeat.

[ Parent ]
And re-elected in 2000
While Gore carried the state.
[ Parent ]
Santorum won in 2000
because his opponent had no name recognition in the eastern part of the state, had to go through a divisive primary, and was outspent by a two to one margin in what was a swing state. I think Toomey is too far out of the mainstream to win in Pennsylvania, but it probably still won't stop the Club for Growth from pouring millions of dollars into the race.
[ Parent ]
In neither case did Santorum defeat a sitting
Senator in a bloody primary.

Toomey's only chance is an implosion by the Democratic candidate, or the complete meltdown of the Obama presidency.  Both are possible, but I wouldn't waste a brain cell of "worry" on them.

[ Parent ]
Also affects Specter's voting
The Toomey challenge is will also make Specter more likely to side with the obstructionists at every opportunity. That's going to make it harder for Obama to get legislation through the Senate.

All the more reason we need Franken seated.

[ Parent ]
It is more likely
that Obama is going to attach major legislation to the budget bill, which can't be filibustered.
[ Parent ]
Attaching healthcare funding was a great move
Basically there's already enough money attached to the budget to cover a good portion of universal healthcare.
[ Parent ]
True
but that puts more pressure on Specter in the general election. If he starts doing that, he becomes much more vulnerable to a Democrat. Specter may be better off voting how he's always voted and arguing to Pennsylvania Republicans he's the only Republican who can hold the seat. It may not work, but Specter is backed into a corner and this point.

Either way Democrats should take note of this.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
That may or may not work
On the other hand, moving right may not work for Specter either, as Toomey will portray him as an opportunist who will switch back to being a "liberal" once the primary is over.

As someone who switched parties temporarily in 2004 to vote (and volunteered as well) for Toomey in the primary, I've seen a lot of their supporters in the state.  The wingnuts are chomping at the bit to get rid of Specter, even if that means that they lose the seat.

[ Parent ]
PA-Sen: Toomey Will Run | 85 comments

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