Not good news for Paterson

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by: andgarden @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 04:42:25 AM UTC

He's being destroyed

by his budget cuts and the commercials blasting him about it. They're running multiple times an hour on every station and include a man in a wheelchair asking the Governor why he's causing his hospital to close, and panicky parents driving their sick child to a hospital that's closed.

Part of this is being in the wrong place at the wrong time, but if he's in trouble, there's no way he survives a primary against anybody. If not Cuomo, Tom Suozzi is a potential candidate who can win.

Three months ago it was "How can Paterson win" and now it's "Who will the Democrats nominated in place of Paterson"

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 05:06:33 AM UTC

Yup

He's being softened up early. I joked a few weeks ago that Gillibrand might be elected but not Paterson. That's no longer looking like a joke: it's probable.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 05:18:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NY-Sen

Cornyn is trying to get Pataki into the Senate race.  That would be a massive upgrade from Peter King.

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by: mikeel @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 01:57:15 AM UTC

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I think King would be stronger

Not that it matters because neither could actually win.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 18:16:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same here

King is lesser known statewide and would probably have less liabilities than a failed ex-Governor like Pataki.  Though either one probably has about a 43-44% cap of support in a neutral year.  Even lower in a Dem-favorasble year.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Feb 20, 2009 at 18:27:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bit early to be writing his obituary just yet

The Governator was in a similar position in 2005 but turned it around to be easily re-elected.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 13:00:49 PM UTC

No Republican was going to primary him, at least I don't remember any

Paterson will likely be primaried.

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 15:05:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nobody has come forward yet

They may or may not do so. Until then Paterson has time to recover.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 15:31:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nobody will

officially until we're about a year out. New York primaries are late...in September.

But I've talked to people, Cuomo is in, so is Giuliani...but don't expect either of them to make a formal announcement until late summer.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 18:46:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In other words

Paterson has time to recover.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 18:58:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rudy's a joke now

He still spends his days ranting against Obama and Dems on the shows of people like Rush and Hannity.  He'll get steamrolled running statewide in New York.  He's given Dems WAYYYYY too much red meat to have a prayer running in that state.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 21:55:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

For the moment

he's still quite popular in New York.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 22:34:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's a pretty precarious position to be in

Seriously, what would we be saying about him if he were a Republican? This is Ernie Fletcher territory.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 15:15:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Precarious yes

Toast no.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 15:29:25 PM UTC

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Not really surpised about this

though 2010 is still a long way off. Few appointed or succeding first time governor's actually win office and considering the abyss of an economic crater NY is staring into; this would have happened to just about any incumbent, including Spitzer. While Paterson strikes me as kind of a fluky politician and NYers kinda like their pols larger than life, I think the way he handled the Senate appointment process has not earned him a lot of love among some elements of the NY Dem base...oh well, such is life.

Interestingly you'd expect the current economic crisis to adversely affect someone like Ted Strickland, but since OH has been on the receiving end of a stream of bad economic news since the late 1990s, I think Buckeye voters have become used to it and hardened up to the fact that the OH of their yesteryears ain't coming back for a while.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

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by: Shinigami @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 21:22:16 PM UTC

Good politicians can weather

situations like this in most cases. But bad politicians need a good political environment to survive. . .

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by: andgarden @ Thu Feb 19, 2009 at 21:36:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]