Wow

That poll really is a shocker.  I'd expect a popular Governor liek Hoevan to poll at least within single-digits.  Gives me a little hope for North Dakota in the future.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 18:01:38 PM UTC

Forget It, Big John

You're not rustling this one up.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 18:27:17 PM UTC

Dorgan was always stronger than Conrad

When Hoeven passed on challenging Conrad I figured Dorgan was safe, but not THIS safe.  Wow, those numbers are insane.  Cross this one off the "to watch" list.

Republicans seem to be hoping for miracles in states that Obama won in landslides (Illinois, Connecticut, Nevada, Colorado).  But I don't think they'll find their miracle candidates.

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by: skaje @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 19:58:26 PM UTC

Dorgan's stronger?

I wouldn't expect that, given that he's fairly consistently to the left of Conrad.

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by: omarka @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 20:09:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmm

for some reason I thought Dorgan was the senior senator, but I was incorrect.  Conrad in fact has a full term's seniority over Dorgan.

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by: skaje @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 20:17:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

not technically,

technically only a few months because he kept a campaign promise and didn't run for reelection for his seat, which Dorgan one, and then won election to the other seat when it opened up in a special election that year.

And, while Dorgan is more liberal than Conrad, he has long more than two decade career serving the state and is very well known and his kind of liberalism has a fiery populist aspect to it that makes him one of my favorite senators.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Sat Feb 14, 2009 at 19:15:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not to get ahead of ourselves but where is our bench here?

I love that we have control of both Senate seats and the lone House seat, but those guys aren't going to be around forever and considering we have a minority status in both chambers of the legislature and have not won the Governor's race since 1988 who's on deck?

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by: fitchfan28 @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 20:14:36 PM UTC

Not really a great concern

Dorgan's running now and Conrad's not up till 2012 and even then he'll be 64 in 2012 and will probably run for re-election.

But to answer your question, the obvious answer would be Cong. Earl Pomeroy but he would be a 10-term Congressman in 2012 and  may be hesitant to run for Senate if the seat were to open up.

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by: safi @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 20:54:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bench

Well, there is Roger Johnson, who has been the state's Ag Commissioner since 1996. There's also Heidi Heitkamp, the former state Atty General who lost the Governor's race to Hoeven by a 55-45 margin in 2000. There are a few other former state office holders kicking around, but most of the executive branch in ND has been held by the Republicans for much of this decade. There could be some decent faces in the state legislature, but that's beyond my level of knowledge.

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by: James L. @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 21:25:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

RE: Hopefully this is not, though

President Bush won the state by over 27%.

McCain carries the state 8.6%, and Obama had a 9 point increase over Kerry.

Even though we still did not carry the state, that is still quite a bit of a swing.

Are there sections of the population there that are trending blue?

And who are they?

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by: etl @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 21:46:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

Your best bet is to compare the 2008 and 2004 exit polls. I'm a bit too busy to delve into the numbers at the moment.

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by: James L. @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 21:56:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good lord... it was mainly the young people

Here are the North Dakota breakdowns 2004 vs. 2008:

18-29 year olds:
2004
Bush - 68%
Kerry - 32%

2008
Obama - 51%
McCain - 47%

Also of note, the % of 18-29 year olds making up the voter pool jumped from 20% in 2004 to 22% in 2008.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 22:01:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Youth and growth along the Minnesota border

The youth vote was pretty decisive, but there's a map over at DailyKos that's very interesting.  The western half of the state was pretty stationary, but what passes for urban, as well as the Red River Valley area, in the east went heavily Obama.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 22:59:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wonder if growth is picking up

The problem with North Dakota over the past few decades is that most of it's highly educated college grads have moved away post-graduation.  That obviously hurts Dems in the long-run since that demographic is in our favor.  In fact for a good part of the 90's ND had a net loss in overall population.  Wonder if that trend is reversing in the more liberal eastern part of the state.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 23:08:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

How is turnout of Native Americans?

Aren't they relatively Democratic-leaning?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 23:16:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They are heavily Democratic

But I don't know the turnout figures.  In any case, they only make up 5.3% of the state population (but, along with blacks and Hispanics are increasing while white folks are decreasing in number per wikipedia) versus 8.8% for neighboring South Dakota, where whole counties are very blue because they comprise almost exclusively reservation land.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 23:36:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pathetic turnout

I read somewhere that Native-Americans have an extremely low turnout nationwide.  Something like 20-30%, and a very low registration rate too.

I'm pretty sure their turnout in SD in 2002 was the gripe Thune had after his razor thin loss to tim Johnson.  Complained that Native American turnout couldn't have been as high as it was so it must have been voter fraud or something like that.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Feb 14, 2009 at 03:33:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

OMG I misread that at first

as 2004 Kerry 68 Bush 32.

And I was like, WTF????

But DANG, that is a HUGE swing.  2004 ND youth voted like the rest of their state, but 2008 ND youth bucked the trend WAY up.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 23:14:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah Gen Y!

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 23:49:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This Gen Yer

is thrilled with her ND counterparts!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Sat Feb 14, 2009 at 00:08:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well we do owe alot to a former Dem Governor

Governor Arthur A. Link (1973-1981)

He is fondly remembered by North Dakotans and former North Dakotans, Dem-NPLers and Republicans alike as one of the best governors the state ever enjoyed. Ironically, the Democratic-NPL, able to elect only one governor since Link vacated the office in 1981, have maintained all seats in the state's federal congressional delegation in Washington since 1987, every member of whom served during the Link Administration.

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

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by: lordpet8 @ Sat Feb 14, 2009 at 02:04:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

RE: Grant County

What's with Grant County and the 3rd party vote?

Bob Barr got over 22% of Grant?  And Baldwin got 11%?

McCain got only 44%.

What people are there, and how are they different?

They seem quite unique there.

Why?

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by: etl @ Sat Feb 14, 2009 at 02:47:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

ND-Sen

You can take this off all lists of Dem. sen. seats to be contested...Hoeven sees this and he won't even run...that being the case, Dorgan wins with 70+% of the vote...sorry sad-*ss republicans

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by: bklonsky @ Sat Feb 14, 2009 at 20:28:48 PM UTC

Ya, who knew?

I really thought Hoevan vs. Dorgan would be a tossup race if it happened.  Guess it would have been more of a Collins vs. Allen race.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Feb 14, 2009 at 20:58:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]