Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/29-2/2, registered voters):
Ben Chandler (D): 42
Jim Bunning (R-inc): 45Jack Conway (D): 42
Jim Bunning (R-inc): 46Crit Luallen (D): 41
Jim Bunning (R-inc): 45Dan Mongiardo (D): 42
Jim Bunning (R-inc): 46Ben Chandler (D): 42
Trey Grayson (R): 42Jack Conway (D): 41
Trey Grayson (R): 42Crit Luallen (D): 42
Trey Grayson (R): 42Dan Mongiardo (D): 42
Trey Grayson (R): 43
(MoE: ±4%)
R2K polls the Bluegrass State on behalf of the Orangehate Site, and we are looking at a very tight Senate race. Jim Bunning, who has been the subject of some very public pressure from Republican leadership to get out of the way, is leading his likely Democratic opposition by 3 or 4 points. The four likeliest Democratic challengers (Rep. Ben Chandler, Attorney General Jack Conway, Auditor Crit Luallen, and Bunning’s 2004 opponent, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo; of these four, only Mongiardo has declared) all put up virtually the same numbers, indicating, as with most polls we’ve been seeing in the last few months, that they’re all basically running as “generic D” right now. (Hard to believe, I know, but those creatures known as “voters” apparently aren’t in round-the-clock campaign mode like we are.)
On the one hand, these poll numbers may come as a bit of a surprise to people looking at the Kentucky senate race as one where the Democrats have a clear edge. Bunning has a few advantages here, though: one, the power of incumbency, and the name recognition and general staying-power that come with it. And two: the overall Republican strength in Kentucky, one of the few states that seems to keep on moving away from us at the presidential level, although it’s still quite amenable to statewide Dems.
On the other hand, Bunning clearly is in bad shape here, falling far short of the relative safety of the 50% mark, based on pretty wide name recognition (41 favorable/47 unfavorable), leaving him little room to go up. And that’s before he’s exposed to the rigors of a two-year campaign, which didn’t go so well last time back when he was five younger.
R2K also polls GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson, a young up-and-comer who would assumedly be the party’s preferred candidate. He doesn’t fare as well as Bunning, but unlike Bunning, he’s not well-known and yet liked by those who know him (39 favorable/18 unfavorable), giving him a lot more room for expansion. This is why Grayson is, by most people, considered the more dangerous GOP option.
These numbers are bad for Bunning, but better than I thought they’d be. The fact that he’s leading (narrowly) will hopefully keep him in the race.
LOL. But seriously, I’m curious.
Also, we need Alan Grayson to run for Senate at some point, if Trey Grayson wins. Though, unfortunately, they won’t be Senators Greyson and Grayson, unlike Senators Bennet and Bennett.
Luallen or Conway. (Preferably Conway due to the age difference)
Check out SUSA’s recent KY Senate approvals. McConnell has a net
4 approval and Bunning is only1. Why again did all the big name Dems give him a pass? Arggg…http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…
but not SO bad. i would have guessed that conrad burns had about the same numbers 2 years out (anyone have those?).
i mean he’s a doddering fool, but he’s not involved in a scandal in a GOP state at the federal level. he should be able to pull 45% at this point no matter what.
run Jim run!
for a really red state at the federal level. But it’s not going to be a gimme like New Hampshire or even leaning solidly our way like Ohio and Missouri.
Jim Bunning just got the piece of information he can share with Cornyn and McConnell on why he should run. Step one finished.
Bunning has a very small lead, which means he has to talk to the Kentucky voters. In 2004, he was able to talk himself almost out of the Senate. I think his lead went from 20% to 1% in less than 3 weeks.
Run Jim Run!!!!
if bunning was losing hands down (below 40%) he might be scared enough to call it quits. this is close enough that both our guys and bunning see opportunity and are more likely to run.