Targets

NJ-11, my home district, is pretty much hopeless.  Since I live in the Essex portion, redistricting into a Democratic CD is a strong possibility.  NJ is slated to lose a House seat in 2012.  North Jersey is growing much slower than south and central Jersey.  I'm betting that the computer geeks in redistricting put Sussex in with Morris and have Garrett going mano-a mano with NJ-11s Rodney Frelinghuysen in a GOP steel cage match.  (Unfortunately, the red meat Garrett with a Progressive Punch score of 4 would probably beat the moderate Rodney.

Four of the five are possible depending on what Chris Smith does (NJ-4).  We know he has kids in college and is scrambling for money (getting the in-state rate for VA residents).  He'll only be 57 but he will have 30 years in the House and was shoved aside by the Bushies repeatedly.  If Chris Christie, media creature extroadinaire, wasn't running he'd be a strong possibility for Governor.  If big time private sector money was actually available, he just might vamoose.

NJ-5 was a major disappointment.  Dennis Schulman was  well funded and still ran behind Obama despite the super extreme voting record and lousy constituent service of E. Scott Garrett (does the "E" stand for error).  Garret pulled out all the standard Republican tricks and this time it worked.  Schulman was a good candidate but in-fighting within the Bergen County Democratic Organization (BCDO) was no help.  For the first time, Garrett's percentage went up (by 1 point).

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by: David Kowalski @ Wed Feb 04, 2009 at 05:12:44 AM UTC

Redistricting

There is really only room for 2 Republican districts in northwest NJ. One made out of Sussex and Morris, the other made out of Warren, Hunterdon, and Somerset. I would pull the Republican districts completely out of the Democratic counties.

As for Chris Smith in NJ-04, we will never be able to get rid of him. I think NJ-03 and NJ-04 should trade territory to make each other safer. NJ-04 should be Ocean and southern Monmouth. NJ-03 should be Burlington and as much Camden as needed.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Wed Feb 04, 2009 at 05:47:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Two districts?

Northern NJ already is down to 2 Republican distrists.  If one CD is lost it should be (mostly) Garrett's.

Two thirds of the vote in Garrett's district is in northern Bergen County.  Hunterdon is not in Garrett's district.  Garrett lives in Sussex (Wantage, IIRC).  Since the Bergen part of his district is 50/50, it is the smaller Sussex and Warren parts that make it Republcan.

Rodney has a slice of Sussex already and Warren could wind up with Rush Holt leaving the competition.  Morris plus Sussex with a little bit of the surrounding areas is about right for one very Republican district.

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by: David Kowalski @ Wed Feb 04, 2009 at 09:19:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Smith an institution

It's true Chris Smith is an institution...thirty years in for a young guy (wow).  But it's hard to believe he'll stick around for too long as a moderate in everything except pro-choiceness (where's he's such an absolute walking radioactive disaster, I almost can't think of anyone worse) in today's uber-conservative GOP.  It's Frelinghuysen who, I think, if the NJ Dem Party got it's ducks in a row and actually told the county parties to quit stabbing each other in the back, would hold the only safe seat.  This could also be Garrett if we forced them to duke it out in redistricting.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Wed Feb 04, 2009 at 18:50:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's 9/11

9/11 put the brakes on Democratic gains in the area. A lot of otherwise staunchy Democratic voters have become hawkish on foreign policy and more neocon in national security...and they're staying there. That's why Hillary ran more hawkish.

Also there was a much overlooked PUMA factor in the area, where Hillary voters skipped the top of the ballot. That's why turnout wasn't much higher in places like Long Island and the margins didn't move much.

Look at the NYC results too...the results didn't change much, especially in Brooklyn and Queens

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Wed Feb 04, 2009 at 05:58:20 AM UTC

It would be interesting to compare

the total number of voters for the Prez race with the Congressional races to see if there was a serious PUMA effect in NYC.  

My guess is no, and most of the PUMAs ended up voting for McCain rather than leave it blank.

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by: IHateBush @ Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 01:34:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was at the victory party

for our new State Senator Joe Addabbo in Queens who defeated Republican Serphin Maltese and flipped control of the State Senate to the Democrats.

Half the people I talked to in that room voted for McCain.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 03:02:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wouldn't doubt it

Obama's performance in the white areas of Brooklyn (in the 8th, 9th, and even 13th) were very subpar.  They were washed out by huge majorities in the black and Hispanic districts, but is still concerning.

I shudder to think how bad the Queens results were, although again, Obama probably got huge majorities in the Queens parts of the 6th and 7th, and probably did well in Flushing and the other Jewish areas, which couched his performance in the white ethnic areas.

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by: IHateBush @ Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 03:55:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm in the Queens portion of the 9th

I'm still wondering if maybe he lost the 9th district.

Wouldn't surprise me.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 07:11:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Could be

I wonder why Obama did especially bad in white working class NYC.  I didn't expect him to win big there, but at least do as well as Kerry.  Compare to Philadelphia, specifically NE Philly, whose demographics are similar to the areas which we are talking about in NYC.  Clinton beat Obama by more than 3-1 in NE Philly in the primary, but Obama broke 60% there in the general.

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by: IHateBush @ Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 21:54:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hillary Clinton

the PUMA effect was huge in these parts of New York and a lot of Democrats just didn't show up in these parts.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 22:53:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're probably right about that

although Kerry didn't do very well in those areas either, maybe a 9/11 effect as well.

Another possible thing, Pennsylvania was a swing state, so Obama made a real push to sell himself to these voters.  So once the economic crisis hit, people in places like NE Philly, Scranton, etc realized that they couldn't vote their instincts(or prejudices), but rather the issues.  

Obama never showed up to NYC, and NY was going to go Democratic anyway, so most people just voted their gut.

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by: IHateBush @ Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 23:18:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

RE: NE Philly

I cannot say about the people of NYC, as I am not from there.  However, if the demographics really are like those of NE Philly, if you can compare those places to Mayfair or Torresdale or Tacony, then I am confused by the NYC area.

Yes, I do know some of the people around do not have the highest opinion of the African-American community.  However, we have an African-American mayor now, and he won over those same people's votes easily.  Mayor Nutter won their votes before this economic mess happened.

These people do not mindless vote on racial lines, especially when the African-American candidate shows that he is not just another Milton Street.

I will also add this:  McCain's shift to the right, and his choosing Sarah Palin was a major loser for those that McCain had the best chance of flipping due to any such instincts that you speak of.  Fundy is not a winner in those parts.

I've seen that type of tension before, in the DA primary for example, so I am not saying that it does not exist.  Mayor Nutter did not try to benefit from such divisions.  Obama did not, either.

I really do not understand your area, if they are really so close demographically.

I will add that Delaware County still has more Republicans than Democrats, yet Obama saw a nearly 6 point jump from Gore in that same county.  He got over 60% of that county.

If the difference is not the so-called 'war' on terror, and voting out of fear of "those" people abroad, than I really cannot answer why they are different.

The only other possibility is that some there are more open to the GOP due to their viewing the GOP as being more open to them.  

You could answer that one.  I am stumped as to the difference.

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by: etl @ Fri Feb 06, 2009 at 04:57:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

RE: NYC peaking?

They all, even those in the good news category, show a Republican bounce in 2004.  

I am not sure why Sussex County is considered bad news, as it bounced right back in 2008 to where it had been in 2000.

They all showed an increase, in both the good news and bad news counties, from 2004 to 2008.

Have any of our congressional members seen any drop?  The Democrat in New York to have any scare is Arcuri, and he's not in the NYC area at all.  Bishop got the lowest percentage amongst New York's downstate delegation, but he still got 58%.  If I recall correctly, his first win was a very close one, and Israel didn't even get 50%, and they are both doing fine even in 2008.  Maybe it took scandal to knock out their incumbent, but McMahon winning at 61% is a show of actually Democratic strength.

In 2000, Republicans were still easily holding onto Bishop's seat, and Sue Kelly and Benjamin Gilman were still winning their suburban seat by large margins for the GOP.  Peter King won easily, but so was Fossella before his fall from grace.  

Lazio was winning with over 60% in his elections before leaving an open seat.  Forbes was winning just as easily when he was a Republican.  Carolyn McCarthy dropped to 53% her second election, and then rebounded.

Long Island still has more Republicans than Democrats, and, with the exception of Westchester, Lazio still took all of the suburban counties, as well as Staten Island, in 2000.  Pataki won a plurality of Queens in 2002 on top of that.  

Of course, across the border, we finally knocked off Chris Shays.

I don't think we've peaked yet.  There are plenty of New Yorkers here to answer this one if I am incorrect in so concluding.

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by: etl @ Wed Feb 04, 2009 at 07:32:02 AM UTC

There seems to be a big difference

between Long Island, where Repubs have regained ground, and Westchester, where they have been completely wiped out.

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by: IHateBush @ Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 01:27:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It seems possible, but...

The 2000 numbers reflect that a lot of conservative Democrats showed up for Al Gore one last time and went Republican after that.  They will tell you it was 9/11 or immigration or abortion/gay marriage or something of that sort.  But Gallup shows the country 55/43 in favor of Bush prevailing in the week after Election Day 2000.  Those folks were simply ready to go.

The 2004 and 2008 numbers show the conservative Democrats gone- around 6-7% of the national electorate, perhaps.  But partly compensating is the nationwide net 1% per year shift of support to liberal, Left, and moderate Democrats as young voters replace old ones.  So there is a substantial dip after 2000 but recovery or better by 2008.  New York suburbia varies greatly in composition, of course, so parts vary a lot from national averages.  

It seems to me that Democratic gains around NYC are small for the same reasons as in NJ and Pennsylvania: the local and state level Democrats are still pretty unregenerate, equal or only marginally better in quality than their competition to average voters.

Peter King's seat is a 51/49 nailbiter district in '10 with a lot of economic misery and it's quite possible it gets chopped up in redistricting in 2012 in any case.  I suspect the real action in the region in '10 is further down the ticket, in state Senate races mostly on Long Island and in the middle Hudson Valley.

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by: Baystater @ Wed Feb 04, 2009 at 08:01:10 AM UTC

Ocean is really the only one that looks bad

Most of this looks like statistical noise.  A one point difference here or there from one election to the other doesn't really look like much to me.  Most have recovered to something above or near their 2000 performances.  And even some of the bad news counties are trending our way.

You also gotta remember that a Jew from a neighboring state was on the ticket in 2000.  Plus, as has been stated

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Feb 04, 2009 at 14:47:52 PM UTC

Unless Jews lied to the exit pollsters

there wasn't much of a difference between Gore and Obama among Jews.  Gore got 79%, Obama 78%.

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by: IHateBush @ Thu Feb 05, 2009 at 01:26:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Could be several factors

Could be numerous reasons.

1.  Ethnic voting.  Italians (which I am part) may in some cases be reluctant to vote for someone who is black.  Some of the areas in which Obama struggled in brooklyn were heavily Italian, Long Island has a large Italian population as well.

2.  9/11 &  McCain. The 04 numbers likely had a bit of a 9/11 effect. Back in 2000 McCain was very strong on Long Island, even though the Primary in NY was held when it was pretty much certain Bush was going to be the nominee.  McCain won both Nassau & Suffolk in the Primaries, the only other county in the state McCain won was Manhattan (which has very few Republicans).

3.  Gun Control,  Gun control is a major issue on Long Island, it is possible the focus on Gun control may have gotten some people who wouldn't typically to vote Democratic to support Gore and now that Gun Control is less of an issue they have gotten back to voting more Republican.

On the bright side things have gotten much better for the Democrats on the local level since then.  The voter registration has greatly improved for the Dems, the GOP's margin in Suffolk is much smaller than it was in 2000, and the Dems now have an advantage in Suffolk.  4 of the 5 Congress seats on LI are Democratic.  They hold majorities in both the Nassay & Suffolk legislature (though they did take the Nassau legis back in 99).  Both Nassau & Suffolk have Democratic County Exec's, both have Democratic DA's.  The State Senate which use to be all Republican on LI has gone from 9-0, to 7-2.  Winning one seat in a Special Election in 07, the other knocking off an incumbent last year (while almost knocking off another one in a surprise.  Many of the GOP State Senators on LI are long term incumbents whose seats have a decent chance of flipping as soon as they go.

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by: Smash255 @ Tue Feb 24, 2009 at 00:14:54 AM UTC