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DE-AL: Lt. Gov. Carney "Looking At" a Run Against Castle

by: DavidNYC

Mon Jan 19, 2009 at 6:41 PM EST


Outgoing Delaware Lt. Gov. John Carney says in a podcast (go to about 19:45):

It's been difficult to get people to step up to the plate and run against Congressman Castle. I gotta tell you, that's something I'm looking at right now.

This is pretty big news - Carney would probably be our best bet to take on Castle in 2010. (DE, regularly blue for several cycles, went for the Obama-Biden ticket by a 62-37 margin.) Carney also mentions that he might be interested in a Senate run. However, in this interview, he suggests that he's not interested in repeat his bruising 2008 gubernatorial primary experience in a Senate face-off with, say, Beau Biden. So if Beau runs for his dad's old seat, Carney could well take on Old Man Mike.

(Thanks to Jeremiah for spotting SG's catch of this Delaware Liberal post.)
DavidNYC :: DE-AL: Lt. Gov. Carney "Looking At" a Run Against Castle
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DE-AL: Lt. Gov. Carney "Looking At" a Run Against Castle | 57 comments
Makes Sense
No way he could beat Beau Biden for that Delaware Senate special election primary, so might as well try for that At Large House Seat, and then after a few terms run for Governor again. I don't think Carper or whoever replaces Kaufman would be thinking of retiring in either 2012 or 2014.

Personally, "Looking at" to me means squat. Hey, I'm "looking at" the Delaware At Large district too, but you don't hear me saying I'm running. If he started an exploratory committee, then I'd take his statements at face value.

It's a big step up
From previous cycles, when no one of note was even "looking at" taking on Old Man Mike at all.
[ Parent ]
Except he could have said
"I'm not interested" or something vague like "I'm considering all my options." He was a lot more specific than that. I'm not saying he's GOING to run (obviously I wouldn't say that), but as James says, no major figure in DE politics has even been this forthcoming about a run against Castle (sorry, Possum).
[ Parent ]
He is stuck between a rock and a hard place
the open Senate seat is the easier but he got screwed with nepotism. If Castle runs for re-election, bad health notwithstanding, Carney will lose. Whereas, if he runs against Beau, he at least has a chance that Beau trips up and he wins. Even after a bruising Dem primary, the GOP bench is so thin if the person is not named Castle.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
How did Carney get "screwed with nepotism"?
There's going to be a primary for an open seat. What could be more reasonable? Unless you take the position that the only "fair" way for someone to compete against Beau Biden would be for that person to be given an appointment and run as the incumbent.

Carney is about 100x more deserving than Caroline Kennedy, but no one should ever have any expectation of getting an appointment.

[ Parent ]
yeha, I don't think he was screwed,
Minner's solution was very fair to both parties.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
What is "facially" an open seat has,
for all intents and purposes, been set up for Beau Biden. You know it and I know it. Just cos it looks "open" doesn't mean it is. It was the same deal with HRC dropping into NY in 2000 against well (and long) established local dems who just don't have the same "fame" premium as an outsider first lady or a Kennedy or any other family dem. The GOP does it too (Shuster in PA, Mack in FL etc).

I am not saying that Carney should be appointed to this seat as a way to level the playing field but it's an open secret in DE politics that Biden wants his son to succeed him and what Biden wants, he will get. It's bad enough elitists think power and public office is a family posession, but when hard scrabble working class folks like Joe or Bill Shuster do the same after rising up the ranks but staying too long in office, it's just embarassing.

Sure Carney could run in a primary but don't for a minute believe that Biden and his supporters won't freeze him out of any funding sources. I thought the Democratic party was all about a level playing field and anti-dynastism. Carney worked his way up DE politics winning elected office in 2000 while Biden Jr only got his shot in 2006. Now of course, this does not mean that Biden could not be a better or more effective nominee and Senator than Carney, but it just seems way too convenient for Carney to have to wage a tough campaign to unseat Castle while the easier and more prestigious Senate race is "put aside" were it not for Beau Biden's and his father's ambitions.

But anyway, I'm not a DE or NY resident. I'm not even a Dem so if this is how the party wants to run things, then so be it. But folks should not recoil from accusations of elitism or favoritism (same goes with Bush 2000) when others point it out.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

[ Parent ]
The only solutions to your complaints would be
A) For the governor to appoint Carney so as to give him a leg up against Beau Biden or

B) For Beau Biden not to run.

Any other situation would mean that Beau Biden would have some kind of advantage that presumably is "elitist" in nature. I don't believe in disqualifying people from office just because they have famous parents or siblings, and just because they might have an "unfair" advantage over others.

[ Parent ]
my bar is,
are they being considered mostly because of their name, or do they have a real qualification; ie would a generic dem holding their office be in cosideration. And, with Biden holding the state attorney general's office, the answer is, in my mind, he qaulifies. I think the fairest thing to do would be to allow them an equal playing field. Carney is a very powerful, well known and popular figure, he would have a good shot at Biden. The state house is probably the best place for him, and, in many state's like this, state's with one House Rep to two Senators, the House Rep can actually end up being the most powerful of the three. Look for him to stay in the Senate a long long time, unless he and Markell switch places in 2016, and Markell positions himself for Tom Carper's seat if it ever opens up.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Castle's strength is overrated
He's only managed about 60% against nobody opponents the last two cycles. Good Dem cycles, yes, but he sleepwalks through his races because no serious candidate has challenged him since he took office in 1992. I think a strong Dem like Carney could beat him, or even scare him into retirement.
[ Parent ]
It's shorthand
for letting Castle retire with dignity.

Good news.  Too bad about the Senate seat, but we need candidates with some freaking backbone to take on guys like castle instead of giving them a pass year after year.

Even if Castle wins in 2010 he might think such a hard battle wasn't worth it every two years and hang it up in 2012.

Carney is my new favorite poltician I know nothing about....

Run Carney, Run!
He'd give us a very good shot, send the Biden family back to Delaware for a few days and he'd have a real shot. It's one of the bluest districts held by a Republican.
Number 2
Delaware At Large was the most Democratic until Joe Cao upset Bill Jefferson.  Castle's big opposition came in 1992 when it was an open seat.  Somebody named Woo got 46%.

Only ten seats held by Republicans have a Democratic PVI.  Cao (D+28) is out of the norm.  Then Delaware (D+7).  None of the others were more than D+4.

[ Parent ]
Maybe we can redistrict...
Delaware and make Sussex County part of Maryland :)

Downside
Popularity on the Eastern Shore notwithstanding, I think that might make Frank Kratovil's re-election bid slightly more complicated : P

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
There's The Little Matter
of what I believe is the illegality of having a congressional district comprised of two different states. Nice try though.
[ Parent ]
You're thinking too small


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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
That is awesome in every way possible!
Are there still 50 states?

Also, I hope Denton is in the state of Dallas and Galveston is in the State of Houston. I don't want to be a citizen of Mexico in either of my two cities I frequent.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Where is Austin
Where is Austin?  It must either be its own state or the capital of New Texas.  I looks like the appendage on New Texas is designed to capture San Antonio, but I can't quite figure that out.  Is it supposed to cover Austin?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
and South Florida
And we should saddle South Florida with Georgmisippiba either.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
You mean SHOULDN'T
I'm in favor of putting NORTH Florida with them

So let's have one state called Georissippilabasacola.  North Louisiana joins later, while South Louisiana is stuck in limbo.  Again.

And let's have one state called South New York, situated in central Florida, and another state called South Florida, situated in South Florida and Puerto Rico.  They later take over Cuba as well.

We could have one state called Appalachia, containing West Virginia, central Pennsylvania, Kentucky, western Virginia, and Ohio.  Then we stick eastern Virginia in with Maryland and DC and Delaware, along with eastern Pennsylvania, and call that Philambian Maryware or something.

South Carolina later joins them.  North Carolina then claims "Carolina" for itself, and sticks its tongue out at The State Formerly Known As South Carolina, at which time The State Formerly Known As South Carolina tells Carolina that they (TSFKASC) aren't filled with carpetbagging hippies from the DC suburbs.  The Carolinians agree, and promptly ally with Philambian Maryware in giving Georissippilabasacola the finger.

Make one state called New Jersey York, that consists of New Jersey and New York.  Then make a state called Upstate New York, which contains upstate New York and western Pennsylvania.

Lets give Maine to Rhode Island, so they can become The State Of Rhode Island, Plymouth Plantations, And That Big Diamond-Shaped Thing That Makes Up About Half Of New England.  And after a while, Connecticut will get tired of existing without any interesting tourist destinations, and finally start a land war with Rhode Island.  They'll win, because they have more land and people, but Rhode Island simply ends up in Maine.  At which they'll won't ever have to name their state in many pieces again.

Missouri, Arkansas, and Tennesse finally start a land war to decide who owns that tiny piece of Kentucky.  Kentucky, curiously, stays out of it, citing "that's where we're sticking Jim Bunning".

We can solve the issue of which Dakota came first by making them a single state.  Now, Nebraska still has Ben Nelson, so we'll let them stay put, but Kanslahoma gets all the nuts, including north Texas.  Kansas also decides to take over Kansas City.

The Republic of Texas shall be formed from Dallas, Austin, Houston, and anyone else who wants to join.  We will make sure to find roads leading to your house, come redistricting.  We have shovels, in case we need to dig tunnels.  South Louisiana asks to join them, but are refused.

Southern Texas gets joined with New Mexico and Arizona, to produce Southwestern United State.

Northern and eastern California breaks off from western and southern California.  Known as East and West California, each becomes known for a distinctive type of natural disaster.  Sad that their home state (or one of their home states) has been cut in half, many celebrities relocate Hollywood, taking with them the characteristic sign, to Minnesota, where soon, there are regular reruns of Seasons 3-7 of Full Statehouse.

Michigan and Wisconsin start a land war over a piece of a peninsula.  Ohio and Indiana promptly tell them that they're idiots.

Colorado gets to hang out with Montana, eastern Utah, northwest Wyoming, and southeast Wyoming, creating Montendenvyenne.  Las Vegas and Reno becomes their own state of New Nevada.  But eastern Nevada, Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming combine into some gigantic conglomerate called Wydatah or Utahoming.

Wydatah Utahoming Wydatah gets involved in border disputes with Oregton Washingtore Washington-Oregon, trying to claim land from the new northwestern state.  Wydatah ALSO gets involved in border disputes with Canada, trying to claim Alberta.  Meanwhile, Wydatah gets involved with border disputes with Alaska, trying to claim that they have more land surface area.  Ted Stevens is caught trying to buy land in Wydatah and smuggle its ownership to Alaska.  When asked, he denies involvement, and said someone stole the air in his house and replaced it with phony documents.

Meanwhile, Alaska forms its own country.  Don Young suggests claiming land from Canada, but Premier Sarah Palin complains that that's too unambitious, as she can see Canada from her house.  She proposes a land war with Russia, in order to claim the Kamchatka peninsula, even if it takes all winter!  But this time...they'll invade from the EAST!

And Hawaii goes over to the Atlantic Ocean to come hang with South Florida.  South Louisiana asks to join them...and everyone just has a good time.

Except those turkeys that Palin isn't pardoning.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Oops!
I mean South Carolina joins Georissiwhatever.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Austin should be part of New Texas
If it's not, I'll just turn it into its own state. I was also toying with turning Chicago into three or four states and creating another majority-minority state that basically incorporates lots of black counties in Mississippi and Alabama and New Orleans (and then fusing the remainder of Louisiana into Georisippabama) but the thought of a primary between Rod Blagojevich and Bill Jefferson scared the ever-loving crap out of me :D

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
LOL!


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
What about Alaska
They're always looking to break away and form their own country.  I say let them.  
[ Parent ]
Florida Panhandle
It should be lumped in with Georgis-sipababa.  It's exactly the same as that region and losing it would make the "real Florida" (Central and South FL) far more progressive.
[ Parent ]
Redneck riviera
Plus it gives the people in Georgis-sipababa their own beaches, too.  Good move, Chad.
[ Parent ]
I've actually recently been working on something like that
To get my brain in a redistricting move, I've been trying to redraw the 50 states so that they're all roughly equal in size and Democrats have a built in majority.

Anybody interested in seeing something like that? I was planning to put it up and challenge people to make the map better.

[ Parent ]
Sure.
I'd especially like to see California, which will inevitably have to be divvied up, since if the 50 states are equal in size, they'd have to have about 6 million each. Cali would have to be broken up into 6 states. Divvying up L.A. will be especially fun.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I just made a plan up there with only four Republican states
Wydatah, Kanslahoma, Georissippalabacola, and some sort of cluster**** between Missouri, Tennessee, and Arkansas.

They'll probably end up taking over Missouri.  But then they'll cede the island back to Kentucky, because they don't want Jim Bunning.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
That would be a great task
but I would love to see it.  
[ Parent ]
The new map I'm working on isn't exactly equal
in population, but I don't think anyone here would complain about it. I'll wait until there is an open thread and give you guys a REAL treat :)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Cool
What I would try to do is lock in about 300-350 electoral votes at 10-25 pt margins, based on Bush-Gore or Bush-Kerry. I'm not sure if it's possible, and the lines might be pretty nasty.  
[ Parent ]
I don't think that's realistically possible
Remember that at most you're adding only 2 electoral votes per new state, I mean unless you want like a dozen states that are half the size of North Dakota, (something which even I think is pushing it).

Plus, I'm more interested in making sure the Democrats dominate the senate (I'm pretty sure my map not only guarantees that the Democrats will hold a filibuster-proof senate, it would probably also be a guaranteed veto-proof senate.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
You're looking at units
of about 6M people each, no? there's a lot of flexibility in that. (I'm assuming that you leave the Senate at 100 members).

Essentially what happens is that flyer country loses a LOT of representation in the Senate.  

[ Parent ]
I hadn't at first
But thinking about it, there really should be fifty states (granting that these are not of equal population sizes, the senate is already unfair, so I figure why deny the inherent unfairness of the senate and just make some unfair states :D)

My latest map has given Alaska back to Russia, combined the Dakotas and merged Louisiana and Arkansas into Georissipabama. I could probably gerry-mander it more, but this is already getting to be ridiculous (you'll really like what I did with the midwest :))

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Between Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana
there is at least one black majority/plurality state to be had. You just grab the delta and run across the black belt with an extension down to Baton Rouge and NO.
[ Parent ]
I would
But then I'd have to be worried about Senator Bill Jefferson (CB*-New Alabama)

*Corrupt Bastard

It's also possible for me to create a majority-minority state out of Alabama and Mississippi, but the lines are almost ridiculous (I think it would look something like a T on its side, and it would be completely surrounded by Georissipabama).

Either way, I think I created a couple of Majority-Minority states out of South Carolina. Plus I think you'll like what I did to Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
PIX PLZ
I get to plug for my parodical map of the US.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
dang, typo
I meant "Or I get to plug for my parodical map of the US."

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Oh very well...

 

This is still subject to even more insane changes, so don't think this is the end!



Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
It's a good start, especially
in the midwest. I still think you're wasting a lot of Democratic votes, though.  
[ Parent ]
I'm considering turning NYC into four states
Combining Staten Island into the Bronx, and merging Long Island into Queens and Brooklyn, then I can start gerrymandering the ever-loving crap out of upstate New York (or keeping the Democratic parts and giving the rest to Canada).

I might also turn Philadelphia and it's suburbs into three or four states (though I'd have to design it carefully, as I'm not completely confident of how Democratic some of those counties are). I could also turn Pittsburgh into it's own state and then merge the rest of Pennsylvania into Appalachia. I might create some new states out of Colorado (Denver and Boulder) and then either combine the rest of the state into Idoming or New Kansas (depending on how I'm feeling).

These are just a few of the things I'm considering (I'm also taking into consideration creating a super-majority-minority state in Mississippi/Alabama). The real problem is that I'm running out of room for new names (hence why I'm naming one of my states KC)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Dang.
The next thing we'll have to do is gerrymander the world.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Mississippi and Alabama
are places where we have to cut our losses and go max black.

But I am interested to see your map.

[ Parent ]
If you'll look above
You'll see my updated (though probably not yet completed) map

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
As to how I'd divvy up California:
This will be interesting and fun.

First, let me lay out how I see each region in California. That way I can figure out how to best redistrict them. Population figures, are from the State County Association. ( http://www.csac.counties.org/d... )

Per the link, the state population is 38,011,657, so to achieve a size of 6 million per district, we'll have to give up 2 million people.

From the numbers, I figured:

1) We could give the North Coast to Oregon/Washington or whatever state is formed up there, and give the Northern Mountain counties to whatever state the Nevada "Cow Counties"/Idaho/Utah/Wyoming/whatever become.

2) Keep the Bay Area as it is, except maybe give Solano County to the Sacramento Valley.

3) Combine both Valley regions (Sacramento and San Joaquin) with the Eastern Mountain counties.

4) Combine the Central Coast with the Antelope Valley part of L.A. and the Inland Empire.

5) Have one L.A.-centric state from the West Side to the San Gabriel area (Hilda Solis's district) and down to the Long Beach area (Laura Richardson and Linda Sanchez's districts)

6) Combine Orange and San Diego Counties. Maybe tack on Imperial County.

North Coast: 800,932
Del Norte: 29,419, Humboldt: 132,821, Mendocino: 90,163, Lake: 64,059, Sonoma: 484,470

Northern Mountain: 1,205,952
Butte: 220,407, El Dorado: 179,722, Lassen: 35,757, Modoc: 9,702, Nevada: 99,186, Placer: 333,401, Plumas: 20,917, Shasta: 181,380, Sierra: 3,400, Siskiyou: 45,695, Tehama: 62,419, Trinity: 13,966

San Francisco Bay Area: 6,791,908
Alameda: 1,543,000, Contra Costa: 1,051,674, Marin: 257,406, Napa: 136,704, San Francisco: 824,525, San Mateo: 734,453, Santa Clara: 1,820,176, Solano: 423,970

Sacramento Valley: 2,606,646
Amador: 37,943, Calaveras: 46,127, Colusa: 21,910, Glenn: 29,195, Sacramento: 1,424,415, San Joaquin: 680,183, Sutter: 95,878, Yolo: 199,066, Yuba: 71,929

Eastern Mountain: 108,338
Alpine: 1,222, Inyo: 18,152, Mariposa: 18,406, Mono: 13,759, Tuolumne: 56,799

Central Coast: 2,275,917
Monterey: 428,549, San Benito: 57,784, San Luis Obispo: 267,154, Santa Barbara: 425,710, Santa Cruz: 265,183, Ventura: 831,537

San Joaquin Valley: 3,270,343
Fresno: 931,098, Kern: 817,517, Kings: 154,434, Madera: 150,887, Merced: 255,250, Stanislaus: 525,903, Tulare: 435,254

Southland: 20,951,621
Imperial: 176,158, Los Angeles: 10,363,850, Orange: 3,121,251, Riverside: 2,088,322, San Bernardino: 2,055,766, San Diego: 3,146,274

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
For gerrymandering purposes
It's best to have two L.A. states (assuming each of the six states is of roughly equal population). You also want to expand into the Republican interior a bit so as to dilute their power.

Unfortunately, I'm doing all this by CD. This means that pre-existing gerrymanders add another layer of difficulty.

[ Parent ]
Awesome
I get the feeling that if he announces early it could push Castle to retire.  
Its probably likely
that Castle would announce retirement if Carney ran.  That would leave Carney an overwhelming favorite.  
[ Parent ]
In all honesty
We're going to pick this seat up eventually.  Better now than later, but any Dem would only be a marginal improvement.  Castle is easily the most liberal house republican left and votes with us on almost all major legislation these days.
[ Parent ]
reminds me of Carper v Roth
roth, too was an institution who was definitely a little frail to run in a full-on election against a strong candidate.  roth was probably the favorite at the beginning of that election, but carper outworked him and roth literally fell down on the trail once - perhaps at that moment losing the election.

go carney!

For the record
Roth physically fell down twice on the campaign trail.
[ Parent ]
Ouch!


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
voters liked Roth, but
realized he was in failing health and no longer able to serve. He died less than a year later. Castle is nowhere near that old or frail, but he is rusty on the campaign trail, and the state is even more Democratic than it was in 2000 when Roth got defeated.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
What's up with Beau?
I thought he was on deployment to Iraq.  But that looked like him walking with his dad in the parade today.
He's out of Iraq
This is from Politics1.com:

DELAWARE. The Department of Defense has confirmed that Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden (D) -- the son of Vice President-elect Joe Biden -- has returned from Iraq to the United States to attend his father's inauguration next week. Beau Biden is a captain in the National Guard and has been serving his overseas since last fall. He is expected to be a candidate in the 2010 special election to fill the remainder of his father's former US Senate seat. Long-time Joe Biden aide and confidant Ted Kaufman (D) was sworn-in to the US Senate on Friday to fill the seat left vacant this week by Joe Biden's resignation. Kaufman has made it clear he only plans to be a caretaker and will not seek the seat next year. Former Lieutenant Governor John Carney (D) -- who lost the gubernatorial primary last year -- is the only name being floated as a possible primary rival to Beau Biden in the 2010 race.

[ Parent ]
DE-AL: Lt. Gov. Carney "Looking At" a Run Against Castle | 57 comments

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