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NH-Sen: Lynch Is Out

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jan 14, 2009 at 3:04 PM EST


New Hampshire Governor John Lynch is probably the most popular Democrat in the state, and seems like the ideal candidate to take on Senator Judd Gregg in 2010. However, today at a press conference he's taken himself out of the running in pretty definitive fashion:

"I can tell you that although I don't know what I'll be doing in 2010, I'm not going to run for the United States Senate. So, that shouldn't be a distraction as I continue to work on the budget."

Given that Washington has seemed to be outside of Lynch's comfort zone, however, his demurral shouldn't be seen as too much of a surprise. Speculation will continue to focus on New Hampshire's two Democratic representatives, Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter.
Crisitunity :: NH-Sen: Lynch Is Out
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NH-Sen: Lynch Is Out | 44 comments
No shock
Hoping for Hodes.
FUCK

You weren't expecting anything different were you?
As such no big deal. Hodes can beat Gregg for sure. CSP I'm not so sure. And even then NH is probably behind MO, OH, FL, PA, KY and NC in flip likelihood.
[ Parent ]
No, I Actually Had A Shred Of Hope
That Lynch would try to run for Senate. Call me naive.
[ Parent ]
Always a shred of hope
Just in this case it was always unlikely he would do it.
[ Parent ]
DAMN IT
In all honestly, I don't think we can beat Gregg now.  I like Hodes, but I think Gregg is still popular in New Hampshire.  This is a blow for us.  For some reason, many governors don't want to go to Washington: Freudenthal, Lynch, and hopefully NOT Brad Henry.
Big Difference
There's a big difference between being an executive and being a legislator (albeit one of only a 100). Some people view it as a serious demotion because the ability to personally enact change is reduced so significantly.
[ Parent ]
Honestly
I dont think we can beat Gregg without Lynch.  Face it folks, the political climate is going to turn against us and if Hodes or Shea-Porter cannot not muster a lead against Gregg while Democrats are still popular, I dont think they have much of a chance.  
Maybe
Maybe not. Who knows he might even retire yet.
[ Parent ]
Probably our best chance
We would probably be favored if he retired.  His incumbency would likely be just enough for him to win in 2010 just on the basis of keeping a check on the Democratic White House.  
[ Parent ]
Better shot definitely
But still not impossible versus Gregg. Who knows what the climate will be like next year. The NRSC will be stretched again defending the number of legit Dem targets (particulary in open seats) and the lack of much to aim at in terms of offense beyond extreme longshots in very blue states.
[ Parent ]
Incumbents have a built in advantage early
The first few polls aren't that meaningful as far as the incumbent's security goes. A case has to be made that the incumbent needs to go, and it normally takes a strong challenge to create that.

Once somebody's announced and started campaigning, if 3 straight polls show little change, then there are problems. But there's room for growth even before the political winds begin to change.

The job just got a little harder, but the rewards (Hodes or CSP over Lynch) also got a bit higher.

[ Parent ]
The number is 50
If an incumbent is polling over 50% he/she is probably going to win. The last 2 cycles we've defeated 11 incumbents(including Coleman). Of those 11, I think George Allen was the only one who'd been polling above 50% in his race, and we all know why that race shifted.

Gregg has been polling below 50%, so while its certainly an uphill climb for whomever chooses to run its not a kamikaze mission like the 08 Maine race was.  

[ Parent ]
Why the certainty that the political climate is going to turn against us?
I've seen this theme in other comments on various posts. But why is this our CW? It's based on little but fear. Let's look at the facts on the ground.

Obama is off to a good start. He has unparalleled popularity. There is excitement in the air. His program is starting to pass through Congress with huge majorities. It's likely he's going to be a competent and charismatic President. The buzz may continue and grow.

Republicans, on the other hand, show little sign of moderating thus far. In fact, the moderates have been culled, and the survivors are rigid rightists. There's a good chance that the country will continue to discover that it's better off without Republicans. Gregg may come to seem increasingly  dispensable.

No one knows what the future holds, but there's a good possibility that the trend in our direction will continue in 2010. So I say, cheer up.

[ Parent ]
I guess everyone is preparing for the worst-case scenario.
Anything could happen in the next 2 years. I personally am cautiously optimistic.

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[ Parent ]
Independent voters
might decide the Democratic majority is big enough as it is and they need to vote Republican as a check to Obama's power.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Or they could decide (again)
that Republicans are nothing but a bunch of corporate lackey's and nut-jobs who shouldn't even be driving, let alone running a government.
[ Parent ]
If they haven't figured that out by now
then those people are probably hopeless.

The way to gain more seats is to gain more Democratic voters. New voters register every year.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Fear, but other things too
The model might be changing, but it is still a generally accepted pattern to slip in midterm elections when your party's candidate holds the presidency. Not sure why, but it happens to both parties.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
This does not surprise me.
Lynch loves his state, loves his constituents, hates backroom dealing, etc. Washington is not his style. He's BFF with Sheila Roberge and a lot of the other Republicans in the state house.

He's been the best Governor NH has had in a long, long while and I don't fault him for not wanting to run.

Oh well
Still a good chance he could retire.
Steve Marchand
Any rumblings from him.  I really liked him last cycle.
He would be a good choice
He was running a pretty good race last time and would not have to give up a House seat.  
[ Parent ]
Definately
He's as good as we're going to get outside of Lynch and Hodes.  And naturally I don't want Hodes to take that kind of gamble.  He's better off staying put for now.
[ Parent ]
Im in that same school of thought
Hodes has a promising career in the House and if he were to lose a Senate race(I think he would lose to Gregg in 2010), his career would probably be over.  Also, in a bad year, his House seat could be at risk as an open seat.    
[ Parent ]
Marchand
Would have a better chance running for an open seat, than having to face Gregg.
[ Parent ]
I think it's safe to say that for any Democrat, thank you.

[ Parent ]
Not Really
In terms of House seats, there were a good number left open by retiring Republicans that Dems could have picked up, but didn't like in Kentucky, California, Illinois...
[ Parent ]
I meant any Democrat in New Hampshire, running against Gregg.

[ Parent ]
The Hill
http://thehill.com/campaign-20...
National Democrats have favored Hodes, seen as the more centrist of the two. Still, that hasn't deterred Shea-Porter, who has a history of beating politicians to whom she had been expected to lose.
Hodes has proved a more able fundraiser, though both he and Shea-Porter ended the 2008 election cycle with less than $100,000 in the bank. Through the end of September, Gregg maintained about $880,000 cash on hand.

Would $880K be considered to be a lot or a little for a NH war chest?
At this stage
probably about enough.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Sounds like a good amount
Though if he really wanted to Gregg could always tap his own account.  He's won the lottery multiple times.
[ Parent ]
880K is nothing
compared to what Sununu had before Shaheen even announced (something like 4 mill, iirc?)

And in response to all the comments above in general: I think this is very good news.

John Lynch is facing the most difficult term yet with a major budget crisis.  He is needed in Concord, and if he were raising money and campaigning for senate at the same time, it would make it much harder to find solutions to the very serious economic issues facing the state.

Additionally, his centrist style has been to curry favor with both parties (thus the high approval ratings).  This will not work against Gregg, against whom he would need to be more partisan to win.

Paul Hodes and Carol Shea-Porter have both shown, twice, that progressive Democrats can win in NH.  And they both increased their vote percentages from 06 to 08.  And they both outperformed Shaheen despite her better name recognition.

Judd Gregg has not faced a true challenge since the early 90's, his approval is barely over 50% and with 880k he is not cooking with gas, as it were.  He has a long, long record of snide partisan statements and he has been a prime enabler of his personal friend and debate partner George W. Bush for the past eight years.  He cannot run from his record.

The NH that put him into office in the first place no longer exists.  This is a race we can win, and I think today our chances, with all due respect to Gov. Lynch, just got better.

birch paper - mostly NH, mostly politics.

[ Parent ]
The bright side is whoever is running will probably have Lynch's coattails to ride on
I haven't seen any recent polls on Gregg's approvals with the exception of the laughable ARG, so I won't agree or disagree with the barely breaking 50% part.  I wouldn't go outright and say "We have a better chance" than we would without Lynch, I mean, the legislature actually is a part of the executive branch.  So it's not like cutting the head off state Democrats, it's like cutting off the main arm.  Democrats wouldn't fall apart without him.  
[ Parent ]
Not at all suprising
He's not a Senator type.

I'd like to see a poll to see how CSP and Hodes match up but I'd be inclined to prefer CSP. She seems like she would be more willing to run a tough campaign against Gregg unlike, say, Tom Allen. But I'd be perfectly happy to have Hodes. As long as one of them runs and they don't both run.

They had one
CSP gets killed, Hodes is behind by a noticable margin.

It's ARG, but.

http://americanresearchgroup.c...

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
ARG = I'd probably have better luck prank calling New Hampshire
to get an idea of which will run better against him.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly
I could make up numbers closer to reality then ARG.  
[ Parent ]
the obvious candidate
Doris Haddock should run again. If she can't pick Gregg off in 2010, then in 2016, for sure.  

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  
If she's still around by then.
If she beats Bradley in 2010, then she'd be the first centenarian elected Senator! Yes, she turns 100 in 2010.

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[ Parent ]
OOPS! I mean Gregg.
I don't know why I was thinking of Jeb Bradley.

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[ Parent ]
If she's that old, I have to assume he was kidding.

[ Parent ]
I thought she passed away already
so this is good news to me lol

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
I glanced at Wikipedia
before I posted that, and if she's passed away, her entry hadn't been updated.

She was my favorite underdog in the 2004 cycle. She kept calling Judd Gregg "that nice young man," and ran on the issues.  
I found her enormously appealing. I even read her book.

Somewhere... I wonder if I've still got it... I collected a quote from one of her campaign speeches...

Here it is:

For those who may doubt my capacity to serve, let me assure them that, while I may struggle for the right word from time to time, I can yet string my words together somewhat better than even our current President. And, while I need glasses for some reading, I can see clearly the difference between a necessary war and an unnecessary war, and the difference between a balanced budget and a deficit. Most importantly, I can read the Constitution and its Bill of Rights very easily and clearly, and, when elected, I will do what so many others in today's Washington have not had the decency to do, and that is to abide by their oath to defend it.

Speech announcing her candidacy for the US Senate, June 17 2004

I've backed a lot of second-best candidates, for various offices, out of pragmatic considerations, but I would have been truly thrilled to see that voice and viewpoint prevail, in 2004.  

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  

[ Parent ]
NH-Sen: Lynch Is Out | 44 comments

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