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NC-Sen: Cooper and Moore Poll Close To Burr

by: Crisitunity

Mon Jan 12, 2009 at 2:31 PM EST


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (1/5-7, likely voters):

Roy Cooper (D): 43
Richard Burr (R-inc): 45

Richard Moore (D): 40
Richard Burr (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±4%)

If you were to ask me, I'd point to Richard Burr as the Republicans' most endangered incumbent Senator in 2010. He's kind of a back-bench non-entity up for his first re-election, he made it into office in a strongly Republican year (2004) against an underwhelming opponent (Erskine Bowles), and North Carolina underwent a pretty dramatic blue shift in 2008, although that may dissipate a bit by 2010.

So it's nice to have some polling data to support my intuition. Roy Cooper, North Carolina's Attorney General who was just re-elected by a convincing margin, polls very well against Burr, losing by only two points. R2K also tests Richard Moore, the former Treasurer who lost the 2008 gubernatorial primary to then-Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, who doesn't poll quite as well (perhaps he's still tarnished from that acrimonious primary). However, six points back from an incumbent two years out is still a fairly good place to be, too.

Burr's favorables are only 47 favorable/46 unfavorable, while Cooper's are 41/21 and Moore is at 37/27, which looks especially nice for Cooper. While media speculation tends to focus on Cooper, it's not entirely sure whether Cooper will get into the race, and there are a few other top-tier Dems seemingly mulling the race (Rep. Brad Miller comes to mind, as well as Rep. Heath Shuler). But this race easily looks to be a Tossup with Cooper in it (and probably even with Moore or Miller instead).
Crisitunity :: NC-Sen: Cooper and Moore Poll Close To Burr
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NC-Sen: Cooper and Moore Poll Close To Burr | 34 comments
Frankly, I'm surprised
that Cooper doesn't lead Burr. Still, this is promising.
well, it's well within the MoE
 so it's possible he is leading...
[ Parent ]
Brad Miller would be my first choice...
I think that Cooper would be my second choice.
Miller has already taken himself out of the running.
I posted a comment and a diary on it.  (The diary was a run-down of senate races information)
[ Parent ]
yeah, I was going to point that out too


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
What do we know about Cooper's positions?
I'm pretty sure he's to the right of Brad Miller but definitely to the left of Heath Shuler, esp. on social issues.

For someone from NC, is he more like Kay Hagan or Mike Easley?

That's a great question
I live in NC, and I couldn't tell you what Roy Cooper's idealogy is.  He followed Mike Easley tenure as attorney general, and from what I've observed he appears not to be a liberal.  Cooper has overall gotten pretty good press in his role as AG.    

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Cooper's issues, Moore, and Shuler
Cooper's been out on front on some environmental stuff, real big to those of us in/from Western NC.  He's sued the TVA over air quality.  He's also been big on less visible issues such as faster turnaround at labs for DNA testing in court cases.  His biggest claim to fame was dropping the charges against the Duke Lacrosse Players after taking the case over from Nifong.  He ran ads on it this year and broke 60% - incredibly rare for any statewide candidate in NC of either party.

I was a Moore voter in the primary and hope he runs again, but I think he's more suited for an executive position.  He's been a phenomenal state treasurer.  But, he seems to be giving it a wait-and-see approach.  Whether he runs or not might depend on how well Bev does - if she's bad, there might be buyer's remorse.  If she's good, which we all hope and think so far, then it might not help his case.

Watch out for Shuler though - he's definitely building a fundraising operation.  He's doing a fundraising letter with Big Bill and has a PAC.  

28, male, NC-13 formerly NC-01, 04, 05, 07, 11

[ Parent ]
I voted for Moore too
and I thought he was a great Treasurer.  I also believe he has a personality that will attract many independent-minded voters.

I think Shuler may be the most electable of the Democrats.  He's culturally conservative, and he's an economic populist.  In a way, he reminds me of Bob Casey Jr (that may be a bit of a stretch).

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Well
the attorney general's office doesn't lend itself to comment on the big issues of our time exactly.

Juding from what I could find he's anti-meth, anti-child predator and pro-DNA samples. And sheriffs like him, but that's about all that matters in a AG race, we really don't know anything else, hopefully he'll turn out to be a solid progressive minded guy.  

[ Parent ]
It's why I'm really confused with some of Cook's rankings
I like Cook, but to call North Caroline Safe Republican while calling Washington only Likely Democratic shows some inconsistancies in his rankings (I'd move Burr to Likely Republican for now, pending announcements).

I accept that North Carolina is still more Republican than not (Obama's victory in the state notwithstanding), but it's also a state that tends to throw out its incumbent senators easily.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

He has Ohio at Likely R post-retirement
That's crazy.  But then again early in the cycle he always has weird ratings.
[ Parent ]
That probably has more to do with he hasn't updated yet
So I'd wait a few days until jumping to conclusions on that.

Still, you're right, Cook does sometimes have really screwy rankings.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
And LA at Tossup
Crazy.
[ Parent ]
No, he has updated
He has it listed as an open seat.
[ Parent ]
Screwy ratings
I just posted this in the Voinovich thread.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/s...

[ Parent ]
I think
He's going with the CW that '10 won't be a great year for us, in which case Washington could well end up engaged and we might be too busy to actively pursue seats like North Carolina.
But it's already become clear that the playing field will likely be so tilted in our favor that we'll make a net gain in the Senate anything but a dreadfully bad year.
But yes, Burr & Gregg desperately belong in Likely Republican (much more so than Coburn, anyway) and Voinovich's seat should be a Toss-up.  I'm inclined to chuck McCain into the Likely Republican category as well, but I'm starting to think that those rumors that Obama got the party to abandon hope of toppling him in the name of "bipartisanship" might be true.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
I doubt that any credible Democrat would both challenging McCain anyways

According to the exit poll, McCain still had a respectable 60% approval rating. At best, Arizona is probably a swing state (Arizona is more Republican than its neighbors New Mexico and Nevada that was true even in 2004). The Safe Republican ranking would make sense even without Obama's bipartisan push.

Top Democrats will wait until 2012 to run against Kyl (who is both less popular and less entrenched than McCain).



Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I saw
a poll some time ago that showed Napolitano competitive with McCain - I'm certain it was prior to the election, and McCain's favorables have since recovered, but still, I think she was the only AZ Democrat that could've taken down McCain.  
[ Parent ]
Even then
She would've still probably waited until 2012 (which, even as HS Secretary, would still give the opportunity to run in 2012 ala Johanns or Martinez)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I think a lot of that support is soft, though
Someone who can get on the air and stay there playing a greatest hits reel from '08 campaign to demonstrate just how much of a "maverick" he isn't, then casually remind people that he decide to take a break from being our Senator for over a year.  Kinda reminds me of the situation with Liddy Dole, where she was soft and went erratic under pressure; it just took a campaign to deflate her celebrity image.
Janet was our best bet, but this does not have to be over.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
I wonder
if the CW that 2010 will be bad for us is the reason why it looks like people like Patrick Murphy are stepping away from a Senate run?  It would make sense.  
[ Parent ]
The number of early GOP retirements
Points to a very different conclusion. We'll have to see what Schwarz, Sink, Hodes, Carnahan, Cooper et al decide to do. I suspect recruitment will be fine - it was pretty good in both 2002 and 2004 remember.
[ Parent ]
NC is not a Republican state
This state is dominated by Democrats in the state legislature, Council of State, US House, and is now even in the US Senate.  Burr's seat has NEVER been carried by a Republican in a non-presidential year since the advent of direct Senate elections.  The last time either party successfully held the seat was in 1974.

Burr has been pretty much a nonentity in the Senate and is not that well known at home.  He's way too conservative for the state.  Cooper is well known, popular, a strong fundraiser, and a solid campaigner.  He is, hands down, the best candidate for the Dems.  For some reason outsiders have trouble judging NC candidates.  Kay Hagan was hands down the best Democratic candidate for 2008, yet people are still trying to find excuses for her victory instead of just recognizing that she was the favorite the day she announced.  Anyone familiar with the success women have running statewide here would have understood that.

I agree with Crisitunity that Burr is easily the most endangered Republican incumbant.  I'd rate the seat at least lean Democrat right now, but in my heart think it's much stonger for the Dems than that.  If Burr wins reelection it would be the single most shocking result I've ever observed in the more than 40 years I've been following politics.

[ Parent ]
I don't see Burr winning re-election either
Burr is very conservative, and he's really not that well-known in the state, either (Dole and Edwards were much more big profile than Burr).  The best chance Burr has for winning re-election is if the Dems pick someone who is too liberal for the state.  

Something else I'd like to mention.  Historically, a candidate from the Eastern part of the state has more of a chance to win a statewide race than from the Western part.  Winners in the past have included Sanford, Faircloth, Edwards, Helms (mostly known from his time in WRAL in Raleigh), Hunt, Easley, and Perdue.  There are some exceptions, such as Martin, Hagen and Dole who have won from the West.  Past losers of statewide elections have included Gantt, Edmisten, Vinroot, McCrory, and Hayes, who all reside in the Western part of the state.

I will always contend that a candidate from Eastern NC will fare better than from Western NC, so I'm just a bit hesitant to jump on the Heath Shuler bandwagon.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Forgot to mention
that Burr is from Western NC.  He did win in 2004, but that was against a weak opponent like Erskine Bowles (who is from Chapel Hill, but more identified from his time with Clinton in D.C.).

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
He is from the Piedmont area
in Central North Carolina.  He held the fifth district from 1994 to 2004.  
[ Parent ]
I dont know about Shuler
He is awfully Conservative and his House district would probably be almost impossible to hold without him unless its a huge Democratic year.  
[ Parent ]
Nah, not impossible
It would be a tough hold but we have a good bench in that district.  Not that I want Shuler to run.  We can do better statewide nowadays.  I'd rather he stay put.
[ Parent ]
I dont know
Im looking at the 2008 election map here(http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/) and some of the counties in this district are insanely Republican.  Rutherford was 65% McCain, Henderson 60% McCain, Cherokee 69% McCain.  The only two counties that Obama carried were Buncombe(56%) and Jackson(52%) and the only cast around half of the district's vote.  
[ Parent ]
Should also look at the Governor's race
McCrory over Perdue in the following counties:

Rutherford  54-43%
Henderson  55-41%
Cherokee  56-41%

Statewide, Perdue beat McCrory 50-47%.  By looking at these numbers, McCrory (Republican) had an 8 point advantage.  I chose to look at the Governor's race where Perdue is not considered as "liberal" as Obama.

There is definitely a Republican tilt, but maybe not as much as one might think.  A Democrat can win this district IF they are in the same mold as a Shuler.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Perdue may have won the district
But did so in a very good Democratic year.  I, unfortunately, dont think 2010 will be anywhere near as good of a year as 2008 was.  But the point is probably moot, because I dont think Shuler will end up running.  
[ Parent ]
Point well taken
Why do you believe Shuler will not run for Senator?

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Democrats will pressure him to stay
Because they dont want to lose his House seat.  
[ Parent ]
NC-Sen: Cooper and Moore Poll Close To Burr | 34 comments

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