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NY-Sen-B: Paterson Leaning Toward Kennedy?

by: James L.

Fri Jan 02, 2009 at 1:38 PM EST


The Associated Press:

Officials say the daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy will be the governor's choice to fill the New York Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Two people close to Gov. David Paterson tell The Associated Press they believe Caroline Kennedy will be his choice, but the governor cautions he's still looking.

However, Paterson is still cautioning that "It ain't nothin' till I calls it."
James L. :: NY-Sen-B: Paterson Leaning Toward Kennedy?
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NY-Sen-B: Paterson Leaning Toward Kennedy? | 40 comments
I'm sick of celebrity politics.
I don't support this choice.

From what I've seen, this is a BIG mistake.

From a purely legislative and electoral prospect I don't see a problem
No Repub is going to defeat her and she will be a solid progressive vote. But I agree on every other level it stinks.
[ Parent ]
If he isn't going to pick a caretaker
Realistically, it would have to be either Kennedy or (Andrew) Cuomo (the latter mostly to stop him from trying to run a primary against Paterson).

I have no problem with Kennedy getting that Senate seat, she'll be a strong progressive (I've been reading her interviews, and her policy positions, I'm very comfortable with her in office) and she'll have no trouble winning election in 2010 and again in 2012.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

Will this help Dems Upstate?
Will it help Eric Massa's reelection prospects for him to have to explain to his constituents why they should vote for Caroline Kennedy?

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
It'll be fine once she starts voting
They were skeptical of Hillary at first.
[ Parent ]
Yes
Give them time.  I never thought upstate would come around on Hillary.  She did poorly in that region in 2000.  But by 2006 she had solid support there.  Caroline should be able to build a good deal of support by 2010.
[ Parent ]
Clinton was a great Senator
I'm not seeing the evidence yet that Kennedy is cut from the same mould.

She could be, but the evidence isn't there so I'd rather Paterson didn't make an appointment based on nepotism. Especially because we really have very little idea what her political ideas are.

[ Parent ]
Not Hillary
I'm not seeing the evidence yet that Kennedy is cut from the same mould.

I agree.

I am not much of an HRC fan BUT she worked really hard to master how to be a member of the Senate. She applied her innate intelligence, worked like a dog and learned the nuances of the Senate.

Of course, I don't support Franken either and am greatly disappointed that the Big Box Blogs threw their support to him so early on. It just figures that it would turn into a circus. He won't survive.

Name recognition ? ability.

[ Parent ]
Which is why I don't understand her leaving
She had such a bright future in the Senate.  Leaving was a foolish move IMO.
[ Parent ]
She didn't want to be a Senator
There it is.  You can work a job and do it well, but if you don't like it, find something to do that you do like.
[ Parent ]
Not based on Nepotism
The fact that she has the most ellaborate and effective advocacy team.  That is a product of her work raising money for New York City's school system, being on Obama's VP vetting team and the fact that she is a Kennedy.  Relative, but not a pure product of nepotism.  
[ Parent ]
No disrespect

But when Clinton originally ran for that Senate seat, she had the same amount of experience in elected office as Kennedy, that is to say, zero.

Too many people throw the word "nepotism" out without understanding what that means: "favoritism shown to relatives, esp. in appointment to high office," Paterson isn't a member of the Kennedy family, so using "nepotism" here (unlike in the case of, say, Lisa Murkoswski who was appointed by her *father*) is completely missing the point.

We do know what Kennedy's political ideas are, and the people who keep saying that over and over and over again are the people who refuse to look for themselves or are already convinced that they don't want Kennedy. The meme is untrue on its face, we know plenty about where Kennedy stands on the issues, but too many people want to feign ignorance.



Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Exactly
This whole direct political experience thing is overrated.  Meteoric rises happen all the time.  Heck, there was even this lowly Illinois community organizer turned State Senator back in 2004.  Wonder what ever happened to that guy.
[ Parent ]
Right on
However, that lowly community organizer turned state senator first had a metoric rise to US senator in 2004 and then...

What was his name? Barry something? ;-)

[ Parent ]
Interesting question on upstate...
While upstate is probably more conservative than say NYC that would hurt her.  However, much of the Kennedy legacy exists with older constituents, which could also be this same upstate crowd.  So its how she plays it.  But yes, of course, she'll win.  And no one can really run against her.  Can she help others get elected, I don't think too much.  Will she hurt Massa, I don't think too much either.

I would love to see Cuomo primary Patterson out.  I think he's had his whole scandal already with his Kennedy cousin divorce but who knows.  Patterson seems to be building a network with Bloomberg and CK and I just thought he'd be better...though I have no reason why.

I don't like the comparisons to Hillary though.  Hillary had just moved to NYC, that's why people were skeptical I think.  CK has lived in NYC forever and basically just doesn't "do" upstate NY.  Say what you want about HillDog (I love that episode of South Park), but she visited upstate NY often.  And as was often said during the primaries, the small crowd Hillary connects very well compared to the shrill and over-polished Hillary in the media and the big-crowd speeches.

[ Parent ]
I'm opposed, you know, to this pick
I'M OPPOSED, YOU KNOW, TO THIS PICK

Caroline Kennedy, you know, should not be appointed, you know, because it might, you know, lead many New Yorkers, you know, to wonder, you know, whether the smartest, most qualified, person is, you know, earning the position.

Being articulate, you know, is important, you know, in conveying whether, you know, you really understand the issues or, in fact, you are, you know, just voting how other Democrats are voting.

The more she talks, you know, the more chance there is, you know, that a Republican will win a special election.  And that, you know, might not be such a good thing for Democrats.

Or maybe, you know, a Republican beating a quasi-monarch, you know, might be good for democracy.

You know?
ZWrite

You know
No Republican is beating a Kennedy in New York.
[ Parent ]
I agree
Zwrite is being a little irrational here.  Caroline Kennedy will raise more for her senate race than anyone has in awhile.  She'll probably break a senate fundraising record or two, and she has Schumer's coattails.  Anyone who thinks that is a losing equation in New York isn't analyzing this race realistically.  
[ Parent ]
Predictions for Kennedy race
PREDICTIONS FOR KENNEDY RACE

No. 1 -- If a Democrat challenges Caroline Kennedy, he or she will beat her in a primary.

No. 2 -- No Democrat will challenge her because the fix is in -- ex. -- they all fear being ostracized by the Democratic establishment, cut off from fundraising, challenged by a Kennedy acolyte locally, etc.

No. 3 -- As a candidate who has never been challenged, Kennedy will LOSE to a Republican.  There I said it.  There is just so much nonsense that a typical voter will take.  For example, local observers here in Illinois believe a Republican would win a special election for the Senate.

Sensing blood, the GOP will lure Rudy Giuliani into the race.  As a native New Yorker, I believe that many liberals and Democrats who live in the suburbs love what he did for the city.  His ridiculous hardline campaign for president is a minor thing.

If an ultraconservative like Peter Fitzgerald can win in Illinois, a moderate can win in New York. (Giuliani will run as a moderate and there are other moderates if he doesn't run.)

Shalom,
ZWrite

PS -- I have heard Obama speak articulately on innumerable occasions so I consider him very smart although his ums (or "look") are a negative in my book.

After I have heard Kennedy speak articulately on innumerable occasions, I will change my mind about her.  In the meantime, I am as offended by her candidacy as I was about Sarah Palin's candidacy.

Judging her intelligence is not petty, Mr. Udall.  I've heard innumerable liberals bash Palin's sentence structure, colloqiualisms, poor grammar, etc. It is absolute hypocrisy to not judge a liberal by the same standard.

[ Parent ]
Apples and oranges
Does CK want to be VP to a cancer-ridden septegenarian?
[ Parent ]
If you really think Giulliani is going to run for senate, I've got two words for you.
Ha Ha!
[ Parent ]
Good for those liberals who did

I didn't, I questioned Palin's political skills, intelligence, and other things based, not on her mannerisms, but what answers she gave to show she had any understanding of the issues. I'm high-functioning autistic, so I have some pretty bad speech mannerisms, maybe you think that makes me an idiot?

As for Kennedy's chances in a primary, you're basing that on absolutely *nothing* except for some irrational hatred of Caroline Kennedy. Let me explain a few things to you, in everything that a successful candidate needs, fundraising ability, favorability, and name-recognition, Kennedy cleans everyone's clocks *except* for Andrew Cuomo (in poll after poll, among Democrats Kennedy is prefered to everyone else among Democrats, and is generally tied with Andrew Cuomo among everyone). What you've said has absolutely no basis in reality. Kennedy would have no trouble winning a primary against the likes of Maloney, Nadler, Israel, etc. and would probably be able to defeat Cuomo.

How about this, I'd like to make a bet with you, I wager $100 that if Paterson appoints Kennedy to the Senate, she will win election in 2010 by at least 8 points against any Republican. If you're so damned sure that Kennedy can't win a general election in New York, then put your money where your mouth is.



Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
She's as smart as John Williamson
SHE'S AS SMART AS JOHN WILLIAMSON

$200

Saying "you know" 142 times in one interview is not a "mannerism."  It's compelling evidence that she is inarticulate at best, stupid at worst.

I remember clearly growing up in New York listening to radio talk show hosts repeatedly playing audiotapes of interviews with NY Net John Williamson and NY Ranger Nick Fotiu, counting their "you knows," laughing at them, and inviting listeners to call in and vote on which one was dumber.

These are not mannerisms.  There are plenty of people who believe repeated use of "you know" is a sign of stupidity.  Yes, I know she went to Harvard.  So did George W. Bush, and I bet you believe he's stupid.

And your political analysis is thoroughly unconvincing, to say the least.  Yes, she can raise money.  Yes, she has name recognition.  Is that the best you can do?  How about merit?  Do you really think voters are so dumb that they will yield to fundraising and name recognition prowess?

Obama had far less money and name recognition than Senate opponents Blair Hull and Dan Hynes and he clobbered them.  What about Phil Gramm, John Connally, Ross Perot, several Illinois candidates you never heard of but who blanketed the airwaves, Ron Paul, and on and on and on?

For that matter, Dole, Sununu, Stevens and others had far more money than their challengers.  Rostenkowski had about a million times more money than his opponent and lost.

I'm tired of excluding people because of fundraising ability and trying to fix elections by backing the person with the most money.  Very un-American.

Shalom,
ZWrite

[ Parent ]
Ok and what about...
Tom Udall, Mark Warner, Mark Udall, Saxby Chambliss, Martin Heinrich, Harry Teague, Ben-Ray Lujan, James Inhofe, Dick Durbin, Susan Collins, Michael Johanns, Tim Johnson, Mitch McConnell, Tom Harkin, Pat Roberts, Lindsey Graham, Carol Shea-Porter, Paul Hodes, Walt Minnick, James Risch, Mike Simpson, Blaine Luetkemeyer, Barack Obama (presidential primary and general), Frank Lautenberg, Jeff Sessions, Thad Cochran, Roger Wicker, Travis Childers, Max Baucus, and many many more? All of them both outraised their opponents and won, they probably account for 80%-90% of all congressional races (as for your examples, Jean Shaheen had high favorabilities, high name recognition, and was running in a state that voted for Obama by about 11 points [her favorability was always higher than Sununu's, and she had near universal name recognition], Elizabeth Dole ran about the worst campaign I'd ever seen anyone run, while the state has been bluing as of late thanks to the growth of the Research Triangle [is New York undergoing some massive reddening that I'm not aware of?], Ted Stevens is a felon, should I really have to explain that any further? As for Obama in 2004, that was a case of two stronger candidates ripping each other apart and a dark-horse sneaking by, and for the record, Obama outraised his ultimate general election opponent [the always entertaining Alan Keyes] by a massive 7-1 margin, so even there the evidence isn't really that strong). Even if you can cite the exceptions, that's all they are, exceptions, money raised and electoral success are highly correlated, ask any electoral expert that one and that's the answer you'll get.

George W. Bush didn't graduate top of his class, Caroline Kennedy graduated in the top 10% of the class in Columbia Law School, so... oops?

Um, my argument is that she has strong name recognition and high favorability ratings, plus I think that, on the merits, she's a fine choice. I believe the people of New York (among whom are members of my family) are more than smart enough to recognize that Caroline Kennedy will be a great Senator for them.

As I said before, fundraising really does matter, it is necessary, but not sufficient for electoral success (and, for the record, anyone who says otherwise is a fool).

Oh and New York columnists can kiss my ass for all I care, they're entitled to their opinions, not their facts.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Oh and for the record
As the son of a native New Yorker, the phrase 'ya know is a particularly common one, so using that to call her an idiot is the same thing as calling most New Yorkers idiots. But thanks for trying...!

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I forgot to mention
that several New York newspaper columnists have already written columns questioning her intelligence.  The argument is in the public domain.
[ Parent ]
I'm a high-functioning autistic too.
and I too questioned Palin's ability to answer questions on the issues.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Kennedy ain't Palin though n/t


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
haha...
its funny, even though I couldn't care less about speeches.  I'm sure Johnson in SD probably has some speech issues from his stroke but he still seems okay.  She'll get the hang of it, she'll just need to pretend like each day is the Kennedy Center Honors, because she doesn't speak like that on Honors night!

Sadly, on Jan 2 any joke about speech makes me thing of Dick Clard from NYE.  His speech has gotten worse each year since the stroke.  Its so sad....

[ Parent ]
Maybe you'd like to make fun of President-Elect Obama too
One of Obama's speech mannerisms is that he happens to use the word "look" very often (when he's describing things, he uses the word "look" quite often, you can listen to his speeches if you don't believe me). That is not a sign of inarticulation, that is a sign of a speech mannerism which has absolutely nothing to do with policy (and something which just makes guys like you look petty).

Opposing Kennedy is fine, but please, don't throw out such petty insults when making the case, or is that too difficult for you?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
No I don't know
I'm sure you'd rather someone like Nydia Velasquez or Jerry Nadler should have the opportunity to, you know, lose to Peter King.

you know?  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Baloney
Either would beat him handily.
[ Parent ]
Agreed. Any compotent and clean Dem will win
Caroline is competent. That isn't the issue. Neither is ideology. I'm getting particularly tired of seeing that one come up. The nepotism angle is a real issue and deserves discussion. Any other issue cheapens that argument.  
[ Parent ]
Since it isn't nepotism
then there is no problem.
[ Parent ]
Whatever you want call it
It is an issue.
[ Parent ]
Caroline Kennedy's Senate career
2009:
Caroline Kennedy is appointed to the Senate. She writes a bill for education reform. The bill dies in committee.
2010:
Peter King runs against Caroline Kennedy. Caroline wins by only 53-47. Caroline wrongly interprets this as a need to be more centrist.
2016:
Caroline runs for President, with education reform as her signature issue. She loses the Democratic nomination.
2017:
The newly elected Democratic president gives Caroline a cabinet position. Her Senate seat is given to Chelsea Clinton.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
duffman you are a visionary...
and funny too!  

Thank you for the moment of levity.

[ Parent ]
Hell, just appoint her and get it over with.
I say give Kennedy the seat, put on your war-paint and get ready for a nasty 2010. This wishy-washy crap is doing more harm to NY Dems then just appointing her.
He can't appoint her, there isn't an open seat yet.
Hillary isn't resigning till she's accepted as the SOS.  I don't see how it's hurting NY Dems.  
[ Parent ]
It's not
But some people are never satisfied unless the world is ending, so...

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
NY-Sen-B: Paterson Leaning Toward Kennedy? | 40 comments

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