Google Ads


Site Stats

House 2010: Most Vulnerable GOPers

by: DavidNYC

Wed Dec 24, 2008 at 9:00 AM EST


To go along with yesterday's post, how about we all rank the 15 most vulnerable Republicans in the House? Remember, there are only 178 to choose from. (Enjoy saying that.)
DavidNYC :: House 2010: Most Vulnerable GOPers
Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
House 2010: Most Vulnerable GOPers | 79 comments
Thanks, David!
Now this is what I've been looking forward to! :-D

1. Joseph Cao (LA-02)
2. Dave Reichert (WA-08)
3. Ken Calvert (CA-44)
4. Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
5. Brian Bilbray (CA-50)
6. Dan Lungren (CA-03)
7. Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
8. Erik Paulson (MN-03)  
9. Thad McCotter (MI-11)
10. Tom McClintock (CA-04)
11. Don Young (AK-AL)
12. Mark Kirk (IL-10)
13. David Dreier (CA-26)
14. Bill Cassidy (LA-06)
15. Christopher Lee (NY-26)

And unlike the 15 Dems, where only my top 3 are "Toss-up" as the rest are "Leans Democratic", I'd say the top 8 Reeps are "Toss-up" while the rest are "Leans Republican". Even if Lance & Paulsen had faced stronger challengers this year, they wouldn't have won.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

It's sweet to see all these California Republicans on the list.
Methinks 2010 will be 2000 redux.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Oh, they're ripe for the picking!
2008 proved that they're vulnerable. 2010 may be our bonanza year if the CDP & DCCC actually invest in these races. Even CA-46 & CA-48 are on my watch list, as Crazy Dana's days are numbered & John "Ken-doll" now represents an Obama Blue district. But most definitely, CA-44, CA-50, & CA-03 will be action packed in 2010! :-D

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
And hopefully my home turf in CA-26


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
CA-26 is #13...
You're already on the list! :-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
I know.
I was saying that I am hoping CA-26 will be very action-packed next time around. ;)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
We need a full slate of good CA recruits in 2010
That way even if we lose narrowly again in places like CA-44 and CA-46 it could be a stepping stone for 2012 when those districts and many others are likely to be redrawn during redistricting to be more Dem-friendly.
[ Parent ]
I don't agree
Obama barely won these districts, and with likely a moderate California Republican nominee for Governor (who will lose but not by 24%) rather than a conservative national Republican, I think all the Republican seats will be fine.

The exceptions to this are the retirements.  I could well see Gallegly or Dreier hanging it up.

Gerrymandering should take out 6 Repubs in 2012, drawing the lines in 2012 to eliminate some of them should be an easy task.

[ Parent ]
Likely Republican Moderate??!!
Are you kidding me? The only reason why Arnie could run & win is because he avoided a primary by running in the 2003 recall. In a regular GOP primary, no "moderate" can make it past the CRA, Howard Jarvis, the YAFers, the "right to life" wingnuts, and now the H8ers. California may overall be center-left, but the California GOP is still hard right.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Isn't the Insurance Commissioner Poizner
a very wealthy moderate?  I think he would probably beat out a McClintock or whomever the extreme right of that party puts up.

And I doubt the Democrat, whether it is Garamandi, Brown, Newsom, or someone else will beat Poizner by double digits.  The only one who will is Feinstein, but she apparently will remain in the Senate because she is the Chairman of Intelligence.

[ Parent ]
Money alone can't buy the favor...
Of the wingnut base. Poizner was only able to win b/c:

1) The wingnuts don't care as much about Insurance Commissioner as Governor, so the corporate right got a free pass here.

2) Then Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, someone whose only knowledge of the insurance industry was receiving their bribes, was the Dem candidate... And believe me, all his campaign consisted of were "I lost a lot of weight, so come lose with Cruz!" ads!

But if Poizner wants to run for Governor, he'll have to make some concessions to the wingnuts to make it through the GOP primary. We all may think Tom McWhackJob is a joke, but the fundie wingnut base LOVES him. Unless Poizner panders to them, the corporate right $$$$ won't be enough to overcome them. Ask Richard Riordan.

So even if Poizner survives the GOP primary, we'd have enough material to annihilate him in the general.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Btw, here's my watch list.
5 other Reep seats that may soon be on this Top 15 list include:

- Peter King (NY-03) (if vacates)
- Bill Young (FL-10) (if retires)
- Mike Castle (DE-AL) (if retires)
- Michelle Bachmann (MN-06) (if goes batsh*t crazy on live teevee again)
- Dana Rohrabacher (CA-46) (if more people notice his batsh*t craziness)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Cao is gone
and Gerlach and McCotter are tossups.  Other than that, I don't see any incumbent Republicans in danger.  Other Dem pickups in 2010 will be either open seats, scandal ridden Repubs, or late breaking races.
[ Parent ]
You're forgetting something...
Something VERY important. It's called demographics. And in the CA districts I mentioned, the demos are changing dramatically. It wasn't too long ago that all of these seats were safe for the GOP & the most Dems could hope for was "only" a 20% loss. Now, other than CA-26, all the other CA incumbents listed on my list won by less than 10% in districts that Obama carried.

I think you'll be surprised by the number of vulnerable CA Republicans in 2010.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Oh, and CA-04...
McCain carried it, but McWhackJob is still VERY vulnerable here. He carpetbagged here to run, and (believe it or not!) he's too wingnutty even for this district. If it weren't for Johnny Mac, he probably wouldn't have held on.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
And then
watch him make another run at statewide office in '10, probably governor. :P

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
California
I tend to think California may be our most fertile ground in 2010.  We haven't picked up many seats there in 2006 and 2008 and the demographics are trending our way.  There were some close races in CA without serious candidates or money invested by us.  Most of the rest of the country is already picked over and we're already won the seat or the R incumbent has weathered a serious challenge (sometimes twice).
[ Parent ]
Louisiana
It's interesting that hardly anyone has listed Cazayoux's or Carmouche's districts at all, even though we came close in both districts and were handicapped in both by a unusual problem (third party candidate for Cazayoux and special election for Carmouche).  Of course, we'll have to face an incumbent in 2010, unlike 2008.  I have to admit that these were two of my more disappointing losses, as the opportunity to win may not come again for a while.
[ Parent ]
Well you know
how Louisiana incumbents are pretty well loved when there aren't any "unusual problems"
so unless we can get a 3rd party vote to siphon of votes from Cassidy or Flemming it is going to be an uphill battle.

If we want to make these races competitive again we need both Carmouche and Cazayoux to run again for starters

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
I seriously doubt the 'Mouche will run again
The dude is pretty old to begin with, and I heard a whisper or two that the fire just wasn't in his belly during the "runoff". While nothing is as tantalizing as a near-win, I would be pretty shocked if Carmouche actually runs again.
[ Parent ]
I'd add Rogers
Rogers won 53-47 b/c he outspent Segall 2-1 (Segall raised over $1 million, made Red-to-Blue, but got no money from the dccc).  Had the dccc kicked in, Rogers would have lost this last time.  Now Segall gets 2 years to prepare...

Rogers is one of the few big Tom DeLay guys left in Congress.  Also a contender for worst wig.  You'll notice they cut out his wig at the end of this ad (one of the sleaziest you'll find, notice they accuse Segall of taking money from ActBlue!!): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Where is this?
Which CD?

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Alabama 3rd

[ Parent ]
Oh man
That made me laugh out loud. That is a pretty awful rug. Then again, do you ever see a dude with a rug and say, "That's a good rug?" You don't, because if it's good, you don't notice. Anyhow, I guess Rogers is just taking after his mentor DeLay in the bad-fake-hair department.
[ Parent ]
A few that make the list ...
Henry Brown SC-1
 Ripe for the picking

Joe Wilson SC-2
A lightweight that is still living in the '80s  

Diaz-Balert FL - ??
Diaz-Balert FL -  
 Already softened up, ready for a kill.

Balart, with an A
FL-21 and 25.  But there's a thin Democratic bench in these areas mostly due to gerrymandering.

Bill Young (FL-10), if he retires, would be an solid opportunity.

[ Parent ]
Wow we don't have a whole ton to work with here.
Most people have already said most of my "surprise " picks.  Anyway...

1. Joseph Cao (LA-02)
2. Don Young (AK-AL)
3. Ken Calvert (CA-44)
4. Thad McCotter (MI-11)
5. Dave Reichert (WA-08)
6. Dan Lungren (CA-03)
7. Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
8. Tom McClintock (CA-04)
9. Mike Rogers (AL-03)
10. Mark Kirk (IL-10)
11. Erik Paulsen (MN-03)
12. Brian Bilbray (CA-50)
13. Lee Terry (NE-02)
14. Henry Brown (SC-01)
15. Michele Bachmann (MN-06)

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

I think we have a shot at all 15..
1.) Joesph Cao (LA-02)
2.) Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
3.) Ken Calvert (CA-44)
4.) Don Young (AK-AL)
5.) Dave Reichert (WA-08)
6.) Thad McCotter (MI-11)
7.) Tom Latham (IA
8.) Mike Rodgers (AL-03)
9.) Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
10.) Randy Forbes (VA-04)
11.) Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-09)
12.) Brett Guthrie (KY-02)
13.) Mark Kirk (IL-10)
14.) Paul Ryan (WI-01)
15.) Dan Lungren (CA-03)

I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat
Lance
Coming from New Jersey I can tell you that barring scandal, Lance as an incubment is unbeatable.
[ Parent ]
Interesting..
I kinda had that feeling but figured we'd have a shot just because of how close Stender came in 06. It seems like a we have a deep enough bench in the northeastern part of the district (Union County communities like Scotch Plains) but I don't think that kind of Democrat can suffeciently deliver the Hunterdon part of the district.  

I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat
[ Parent ]
Lance
Unlike Ferguson, he's a moderate on social issues.  Game, set, match.
[ Parent ]
Garrett instead
Scott Garrett finally stopped his freefall and pulled out all the stops to get 56%.  He's been under 60% in three straight elections.  He just doesn't match the district.

Without the feuding within the Bergen County Democratic Organization, Schulman would have come closer and the fall (62 ti 59 to 55) would have continued.  Can Garrett raise $1.5 million again?  Quite possibly not.  This is an R+4 mdistrict so Garrett was probably marginally helped by the Presidential year.  As economic woes continue Mr. No Government will look loonier and loonier.

I'd even rate Frank LoBiondo ahead of Lance when it comes to danger.  He lacked a big name opponent (again) and still couldn't breal 60%.  My guess is that the Jersey Democrats go for all three seats and pick off one.  Your guess is as could as mine on who gets taken out (please be Garrett).

[ Parent ]
I agree we could win all,
except KY-02. If we did not get it this year, I don't know how we win it in 2010. My  list would go:

1. Joseph Cao (LA-2)
2. Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
3. Ken Calvert (CA-44)
4. Thad McCotter (MI-11)
5. Dave Reichert (WA-08)
6. Tom Latham (IA-4)
7. Mike Rogers (AL-3)
8. Brian Bilbray (CA-50)
9. Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-9)
10. Leonard Lance (NJ-7)
11. Don Young (AK-AL)
12. Mark Kirk (IL-10)
13. Steve LaTourette (OH-14)
14. Charlie Dent (PA-15)
15. Randy Forbes (VA-04)

[ Parent ]
Forgot about Dent..
He would definitely make my top 15.

I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat
[ Parent ]
Alright...
Here we go:

1.) Joesph Cao (LA-02)
2.) Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
3.) Dave Reichert (WA-08)
4.) Thad McCotter (MI-11)
5.) Tom Latham (IA-04)
6.) Chris Lee (NY-26)
7.) Mike Rogers (AL-03)
8.) Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
9.) Randy Forbes (VA-04)
10.) Mark Kirk (IL-10)
11.) Paul Ryan (WI-01)
12.) Elton Gallegly (CA-24)
13.) David Dreier (CA-26)
14.) Dan Lungren (CA-03)
15.) Scott Garrett (NJ-05)

And a few to grow on:

16.) Frank LoBiondo (NJ-02) depending on if Jeff Van Drew runs
17.) Fred Upton (MI-07)
18.) Mike Rogers (MI-08)
19.) Charlie Dent (PA-15)
20.) Lincoln Diaz-Balart (FL-21)
21). Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25)
22). Bill Young (FL-10) if he retires
23). Ken Calvert (CA-44)
24). Mary Bono Mack (CA-45)
25). Erik Paulsen (MN-03) if Bonoff runs
26). Brian Bilbray (CA-50)
27). Chris Smith (NJ-04)

I'm not seeing SC-01 or SC-02...that was some sort of perfect storm last cycle, I think.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Top 10
I couldn't come up with 15.  Tough to even come up with 10, but here it is

Cao        LA  6
Paulson    MN 3
Gerlach    PA 6
Cassidy    LA 6
Young      ALK
Lee        NY 26
Reichert   WA 8
McKlintock CA 4
Schmidt    OH 2
Kirk       IL 10

Fifteen
1. LA-02 (Joseph Cao)
2. CA-44 (Ken Calvert)
3. MN-03 (Erik Paulsen)
4. NY-03 (open, assuming Peter King runs for Senate)
5. NE-02 (Lee Terry)
6. WA-08 (Dave Reichert)
7. PA-06 (Jim Gerlach - jumps up to #2 if he runs for Governor)
8. IL-13 (Judy Biggert)
9. MI-11 (Thad McCotter)
10. OH-12 (Pat Tiberi)
11. CA-03 (Dan Lundgren)
12. MO-09 (Blaine Luetkemeyer)
13. KS-02 (Lynn Jenkins)
14. SC-01 (Henry Brown)
15. DE-AL (Mike Castle - jumps up to #2 if he retires)

Hard to imagine a majority of these flipping. I don't think we have much room to grow in 2010.

Might as well jump on the bandwagon.
1. Cao (LA-02)
2. Young (AK-AL)
3. Reichert (WA-08)
4. Calvert (CA-44)
5. Bilbray (CA-50)
6. McCotter (MI-11)
7. Rogers (MI-08)
8. Lungren (CA-03)
9. Dreier (CA-26)
10. Paulsen (MN-03)
11. McClintock (CA-04)
12. Kirk (IL-10)
13. Lee (NY-26)
14. Schmidt (OH-02)
15. Gerlach (PA-06)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
My list
1. Joe Cao, LA-2
2. Jim Gerlach, PA-6
3. Mark Kirk, IL-10
4. Thaddeus McCotter, MI-11
5. Peter King, NY-3
6. David Dreier, CA-26
7. Dave Reichert, WA-8
8. Mike Rogers, AL-3
9. Buck McKeon, CA-25
10. Judy Biggert, IL-13
11. Lynn Jenkins, KS
12. Ken Calvert, CA-44
13. John Shadegg,
AZ-3
14. Dana Rohrabacher, CA-46
15. Scott Garrett, NJ-5

Gerlach managed only 52% against a very weak opponent after consecutive 51% finishes.  

Kirk had to run 16% ahead of McCain to win. Dan Seals looks great on the net but my guess is another Democrat will win kinda easy.  Kirk may even run for the Senate to make things easier.

McCotter got 51% with Democrats concentrating on MI-7 and MI-9.  He's the closest to Detroit of any of the 7 survuving MI Republicans and has consistently run the weakest.

King's running statewide.  Without him, this district is Democratic.

As for Dreier, 53% in a district won by Obama and he's been burning through money the last two cycles.  Plus, as a gay, conservative Republican he's a fish out of water.  Otoh, he's annually voted the best dressed in Congress.  Just the ticket for a recession.

Reichert's an effective politician but a lousy congressman.  Like Shays this year, the time has come for this district.  Darcy would have been a fine House member, too, but, alas, not from this district.

McKeon got 58% against Jacquise Conaway.  Who?  That's the point.  It's no longer a favorable district for him and against somebody with a little money and experience it is a lot closer.

There's so many others.  Next 15:

TX-10 (McCaul), IA-4 (Latham). CA-50 (Bilbray), CA-3 (Lungren), CA-4 (McClintock), CA-45 (Bono Mack), Alaska At Large (Don Young), NJ-7 (Lance), NY-26 (Chris Lee), MD-6 (Barlett, who ran a feeble campaign in 2008), VA-10 (Wolfe), VA-4, NJ-2 (LoBiondo), OH-14 (LaTourette), WI-1 (Ryan), OH-7 (Austria).

And 20 more:

SC-1, SC-2, NC-5, NC-10, FL-16, FL-10, FL-15,CA-48, TX-7, MO-9, MO-6, DE, NV-2 (Heller), NE (Terry), PA-15, PA-16, PA-5, CA-52, LA-4,OH (Tiberi)

My two cents
As for Seals vs Kirk race, the only big mistake I remember on Seals part was he tried to duplicate the Childer's Cheap Gas plan. The thing is Illinois is very different from Mississippi. The crowds that showed up were too much to handle and hardly anyone got any cheap gas. As a result Seals unintentionally upset a lot of people who probably decided to vote for Kirk instead.  
But other than that Seals was an alright candidate.

As for Reichert I believe the main reason he keeps getting re-elected is due to his term as Sheriff. He did help catch the "Green River Killer" and I respect him for that. I think it is this popularity that keeps him in office. If he initially ran as a Dem instead of A Republican, I think he would do about the same in his re-election races.

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
Kirk
I have trouble seeing us beating him, since 2008 should have been the perfect opportunity to defeat him. However, if that seat opens up, I think we will win it. I view Reichert as vunerable, I just think we need a new candidate this time (full disclosure: I supported Darcy running again in 2008). There is no denying he is tough to beat, but as time passes people will be less focused on his time as Sheriff and more on his poor record as a congressman.
[ Parent ]
Reichardt isn't vulnerable
let alone second most vulnerable.  No way is that close to reasonable.

The guy's only fear now is geryymandering.

15 it is
Superbly Vulnerable
Joseph Cao (LA-02)

Very Vulnerable
Thad McCotter (MI-11)
Erik Paulson (MN-03)  
Frank LoBiondo(NJ-02)
Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
Christopher Lee (NY-26)
Jim Gerlach (PA-06)

Vulnerable
Dan Lungren (CA-03)
Ken Calvert (CA-44)
Mark Kirk (IL-10)
Tom Latham (IA-04)
Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-09)
Dean Heller (NV-02)
Charlie Dent (PA-15)
Dave Reichert (WA-08)

Vulnerable if incumbent retires
CA-26 - Dreier
CA-45 - Bono-Mack
DE-AL - Castle
FL-10 - Young
MT-AL - Rehberg
NY-03 - King
NY-23 - McHugh
OH-12 - Tiberi
VA-10 - Wolf

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

Is Paulsen's CD
Really that competitive? Yeah Obama performed really well, but this is a traditionally GOP seat and you had a Dem candidate who, atleast on paper, was very attractive and Paulsen was able to pul it out. I'm sure Terri Bonoff will look at running, but I doubt a Paulsen-Bonoff race is a marquee race.

Also, a couple people mentioned WI-01 and Paul Ryan as a potentially competitive race. No offense to those who mentioned it, but I sure hope Van Hollen and the DCCC don't agree with you. Because unless Ryan decides to run for Senate(very unlikely) or Governor(unlikely), this isn't a winnable race.

Ryan's seat is prime target if he retires
It's one of the best pickup opportunities.  I can't imagine why you would doubt that.

Obama carried Kenosha 60/40, while Ryan carried it 57/41.
Racine was 53/46 Obama, but Ryan won 62/37.
Rock was 64/35 Obama, 61/35 Ryan.

Obviously there is a huge opportunity here.  Ryan is entrenched no doubt, but if he finally decides to run and lose against Feingold or for Gov, this seat should be a pickup.

[ Parent ]
Sure, if he was retiring
That logic would follow, but there's no indication he'll do as much. He's had mutliple opportunities to run for higher office and hasn't pulled the trigger yet. He was the GOP's preferred candidate for Senate in 04 and passed, and was the preferred candidate for Governor in 06 and passed as well. Judging by his previous record, he won't run for either spot in 2010.

2012 may be the opportunity to pick off the seat as from everything I've heard, Herb Kohl won't be running for re-election and that's Ryan's opportunity if he wants it. But then we have to deal with the fact that he'd be an extremely formidable Senate candidate.

[ Parent ]
Okay, if you are saying
That he isn't vulnerable, yes he is not.  If it is open, it's a great opportunity.

he's their best candidate for Kohl's seat but I hope he runs.  A good candidate should beat him.

[ Parent ]
Baldwin!
Holy shit balls that would be the most amazing Senate race in the country.  And Obama would more likely than not carry her over.
[ Parent ]
Man I hope,
She doesn't run.
[ Parent ]
Why?
Aside from her being openly gay what would be her problem running statewide?  Her record doesn't appear to be anym orel iberal than Kohl or Feingold's.
[ Parent ]
3 reasons.
Like you said she's gay and while I don't think this is a disqualifier by itself, there are definitely portions of this state that are traditionally democratic but are socially conservative. In 06, the gay marriage ban passed overwhelmingly 58-41 while the Dem Governor won handily.

The other, and IMO most significant, reason is that she's from Madison. This is problematic for a couple of reasons. One being strictly political which is that she's not going to significantly over perform a generic dem in her CD. And a guy like Ryan who is from a swing district will overperform a generic GOP candidate. Also the state of Wisconsin has a very ambivalent relationship with Madison. The state's best university is located there, and people from all corners of the state try to send their kids there. But the culture of Madison is very different from the rest of the state and there is some animosity towards the city. In the 2006 WI AG race, the main reason Kathleen Falk lost is because she's from Madison.

The final being my own personal experience with these two. I've lived in Kenosha for more than 10 years and I just graduated from UW-Madison, so I don't think there are two members of Congress I know better. I've been to multiple speeches and town hall sessions for each, I've had dinner with Baldwin and interviewed Ryan. With that experience, I have to confess that I think he's a better speaker, a better debater and a much better campaigner than her.

All in all, I think she could win but if she did, she'd have to show me something I have yet to see or it would be attributable primarily to Obama's coattails. In terms of other candidates, I think if Steve Kagen was able to get his diarrhea of the mouth problem fixed he'd be a solid candidate, but I think the absolute strongest candidate would be Ron Kind although he's a bit more on the moderate side than Baldwin.

[ Parent ]
Of course
But again, there's no indication that he's going anywhere. There are dozens of seats that would be competitive if the incumbent retired, Chris Smith in New Jersey is one right off the top of my head. But no one is mentioning him. And based on his previous decisions there's no reason to believe he's going anywhere.
[ Parent ]
It's a toughish district
but the right Democrat can win it. A majority of the state legislators from the area are D's and so are a lot of the mayors, it votes for Democrats like Obama and Amy Klobuchar and Republicans like Ramstad and Coleman and Paulsen was able to fool them as well. I think if we've got a legislator or mayor with a good background running we can win after Paulsen racks up a voting record in Congress unless he votes like Ramstad (which he won't)
[ Parent ]
MN-03
Yeh I think it is competitive.

- Obama won it by 6 or 7 points.
- Dem candidate who was beloved by the base unloved by anyone else.
- Former incumbent a very moderate repub.
- Minnesota is becoming bluer and bluer.
- Freshman incumbent  

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

[ Parent ]
A few of those points
Make the case for Paulsen. Obama won't be on the ballot plus a freshman incumbent is usually quite a bit stronger than an entrant for an open seat.

I guess I have the same concern as siccem. It seemed to me that Madia was a strong candidate, but if that isn't the case then I could be wrong.

[ Parent ]
Was Madia Weak?
I'm also skeptical that pulsen is that vulnerable.  Part of the reason is that I thought Madia was a strong candidate.  But, I only saw certain commercials from the district, some Madia clips, and fundraising numbers, so I admit I could easily have been fooled.  And, perhaps, Madia just appealed to me and I'm not like the voters of this district.  So, any other opinions on Madia--was he a strong candidate and Paulsen was just better/better for the district or was Madia fatally flawed and another good, but not necessarily great, Democrat should win?
[ Parent ]
You summed it up perfectly
And, perhaps, Madia just appealed to me and I'm not like the voters of this district

That's exactly why I believe he lost, Paulsen was the safe candidate while Madia was the riskier one that people weren't sure if they wanted to vote for.

Paulsen can be beat and I hope that any of the amazing ladies in the state leg. from this CD will run.  There are a ton of them and I can really see a woman playing well here, rack up that suburban soccer mom vote that is pretty huge here.  And did I hear somewhere that women automatically run a couple points better in areas like this?

Bonoff should run again, I dont know if she'll give up her state Senate seat to do that and just wait for 2012, but mid-term years are the best time to pick up seats in MN.  Keeps uneducated voters at home who will vote their district's lean so they'd probably vote for Paulsen.

Maria Ruud and Melissa Hortman would be excellent as well.  (state house)

This just simply isn't a seat we should give up on yet.  If we haven't come close after 2012 or 14, Paulsen get's a free pass til he retires.  But until then, GAME ON!

[ Parent ]
Hmmm
I hope you can elaborate more on how Madia was not right for the district.  IIRC, he was an ex-Republican and fairly moderate in his views with a bit of a libertarian streak.  Was he too liberal for the district?  Or, is it his ethnic background hurt him?  Or, lack of political experience?  Something else I'm missing?
[ Parent ]
I'll say it
He was a nonwhite candidate in a lily-white suburban district. It didn't help that Erik Paulsen is a quintessentially Scandinavian name, which is always a plus in Minnesota.
[ Parent ]
yup
there is no diversity in this area of the state and really zero outside of Minneapolis/St. Paul except for a few burbs that are pretty much considered the poorer burbs.

But, this shouldn't be considered racism.  Paulsen simply is a candidate indendepents and undecideds can relate to, white, Norwegian, family man in a suburban environment.

Madia is only 30 or 31, no wife, no kids, actually moved to Minneapolis when he got back from Iraq and could be probably be easy to indentify as a "city liberal" when he isn't at all.  This rhetoric and reasoning were brought up by the GOP to help dissuade voters because Paulsen matched up better "demographically" which isn't an argument that should ever be made.  But, I think the argument explains why he lost.  Especially an 8% loss, if it had been closer we could be debating turn out and other such things but 8% is one clear problem.

I'm for Bonoff if she is up for another go.  Remember, she raised $90k the first 10 days she entered the race.  

[ Parent ]
So was Obama
and he won the district by a decent margin.
[ Parent ]
But McCain
neither is nor looks Scandinavian. Plus Obama has the appearance of a family man, unlike McCain.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Cao
So seriously, what does everyone think Cao's best shot at getting re-elected is?

A. Staying as a republican
B. Switching to independent, caucusing with the Dems
C. Switching to Democrat

Guess I'd say "C" and voting solidly liberal on economic issues, moderate on social issues.  

Either way his chances of getting re-elected are longshot at best.  Only if Jefferson runs again and mucks things up again or in the case of some other fluke circumstance like another major hurricane can he hold on.  

I think it would be easier for Jefferson
to win his seat back than for Cao to win reelection. His only shot is to win the Democratic primary, and I just don't see that.
[ Parent ]
Probably
Had it been Jefferson vs. Cao in the real election day I suspect Jefferson would have won by a 60-40 margin at minimum.  Probably a good deal more.
[ Parent ]
Bribery
nt.
[ Parent ]
Well...
This is New Orleans we're talking about.  Stranger things have happened.  Though I doubt a guy with Cao's background will get involved in anything dirty.
[ Parent ]
Not Suggesting
I agree.  I suspect Cao is someone I could really like and respect even if I disagreed with his politics (and knowing so little about his politics, I'm not even sure how much I disagree with him).  So, I wasn't suggesting or predicting a course of action for Cao; just trying to think of an answer to the question posed (how could Cao get reelected), and, being Jefferson's successor, bribery was the only answer I could think of.
[ Parent ]
Anyone know what the Congressional Black Caucus has thought about doing with him?
That could significantly up his chances if he gets onto it.

Speaking of which, is Steve Cohen on it?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
After much bickering
I do believe the CBC caved and put Cohen in.  I doubt they'll do the same for Mr. Cao.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
No they didn't
They did not allow him to join the CBC.  
[ Parent ]
Correct
Cohen isn't in, and neither will Cao be.


[ Parent ]
So what's the purpose of the CBC anyway?
Representing black PEOPLE or representing black REPRESENTATIVES?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
It's essentially a club for black representatives
several of whom do not represent black majority (or even plurality) districts.  
[ Parent ]
Yes
If they wanted to serve the interests of their constituencies they would allow people of all color in who represent majority AA districts, but they won't.
[ Parent ]
Maybe we should work on making that Flat-Top Caucus a reality
You can't choose to be black, but you can sure choose your hairstyle.

(Well, most people can.)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Childers
Word has it that Travis Childers election has started a national trend towards staches.  Before too long we might need a Congressional Stache Brigade Causus.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but..
I'd mistake the Flat-Top Caucus for a group advocating mountaintop removal mining.
[ Parent ]
Cathy McMorris Rogers of Washington
How vulnerable do you think that Washington's 5th District Representative, Cathy McMorris Rogers is if a determined candidate actually ran against her?

House 2010: Most Vulnerable GOPers | 79 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox