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House 2010: Most Vulnerable Dems

by: DavidNYC

Tue Dec 23, 2008 at 9:26 AM EST


Alright, how about this: Rank the fifteen most-vulnerable Democrats in the House for the upcoming 2010 elections, in order. Have at it!
DavidNYC :: House 2010: Most Vulnerable Dems
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House 2010: Most Vulnerable Dems | 97 comments
Most vulnerable Dems
1. Walt Minnick ID-1
2. Bobby Bright AL-2
3. Frank Kratovil MD-1
4. Tom Periello VA-5
5. Glenn Nye VA-2
6. Parker Griffith AL-5
7. Betsy Markey CO-4
8. Mark Schauer MI-7
9. Steve Driehaus OH-1
10.Eric Massa NY-29
11.Mike Arcuri NY-24
12.Suzanne Kosmas FL-24
13.Mary Jo Kilroy OH-15
14.Travis Childers MS-1
15.Alan Grayson FL-8
Only two 'incumbents'?
Interesting that the only re-elected Dems on your list are Arcuri and Childers.  I'm not disagreeing with those on your list, but instead wondering if we view Kanjorski PA-11 or Moore KS-03 (for example) as safer for the next cycle.  I'm still not sure how Kanjorski pulled it out, considering how bad the polls looked in October.

Looking at Cook's list (the only one I've seen published so far), he has all but 10 of the Dems who've picked up Rep seats since 2006 on his list...and only 4 other Dems (Bean, Moore, Kanjorski, Edwards) on the list at all.

http://cookpolitical.com/chart...

[ Parent ]
I had always said...
[ Parent ]
Not sure Bean should be either
She has fended off two challenges, and Obama (first Democrat ever to come close to winning that area) got 56% in that district.
[ Parent ]
You Missed
Paul Kanjorski. That guy squeezed out a 4 point lead against his opponent. I'd also put Larry Kissell from NC on there, since he managed to benefit from the increased black turnout this cycle and may not be so lucky in two years.
[ Parent ]
The Republicans have nobody else
to run against Kanjorski.  
[ Parent ]
pa-11, nc-8
i second that. the gop took their biggest shot at him w barletta and they lost. i highly doubt hes game for another go round. theyll have to wait till kanjorski retires. as for kissell, i think hes fairly safe, but not outta the woods. he came from behind w no funding to almost beat hayes in 06 and bested him by 10 points. id rate him as likely dem, but deff not in the top 15

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma
[ Parent ]
NC-08
I grew up in this district when Hefner was the rep (Democrat serving until 1998).  A GOPer can usually rely, at a minimum, about 40% of this district (about the same for a Democrat).  That being said, I don't know of any specific Republican that would be a potential candidate.  Kissell has received some negative publicity regarding his campaign (I think he was fined, but I don't remember the specifics).  I doubt this will blow up in his face in 2010.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Road signs
Kissell was fined for having road signs within 11 feet of the road.  Hardly terrible behavior.
[ Parent ]
I couldn't remember
what the hell he got fined for.  I live in David Price's district, and I just don't get any info about NC-08 in the local news.  I don't think there is a chance that would come back to haunt him.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Agree that Barletta won't go for broke again.
I think he's pretty much done.  He tried in 2002 when the national environment was best for him and in 2008 when the environment solely in that particular district was best for him and went bust both times.  I don't see him being a really sore loser and risking a third defeat and comparisons to Mike Sodrel.
[ Parent ]
You know what they say...
All toasters toast toast!

Oh wait, political not-quite-dead-ness has only applied to one Indiana Republican.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
If you're trying to say what I think you're trying to say...
... being a perennial candidate, whether or not one has actually held the particular seat you're running for in the past, doesn't preclude one from pretty much being politically dead, despite one's delusions of grandeur.  Just ask Leslie Byrne.
[ Parent ]
Kissell
would have won that race without increased black turnout. I mean he barely lost in 2006 when he was heavily outspent. That is a safe seat IMO.
[ Parent ]
Kissell won by 10 points!!
He almost won in 06 w/o $$.
[ Parent ]
There's also a difference between under and above the radar
I bet you that Ken Calvert of CA-44, now that he knows he's vulnerable, will start actually playing defense and making himself harder to beat.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I disagree
Living pretty close to PA-11, Kanjorski was vulnerable for two reasons, Lou Barletta was an excellent candidate for the district, and that Kanjorski did not take the challenge seriously early on because he beat Barletta in 2002 handily.

2008 was the Repubs best chance to win this district, at least until the 2012 redistricting.

[ Parent ]
Absolutely right.
EOM
[ Parent ]
How I see it now...
1. Walt Minnick (ID-01)
2. Bobby Bright (AL-02)
3. Frank Kratovil (MD-01)
4.  Parker Griffith (AL-05)
5. Travis Childers (MS-01)
6. Tom Periello (VA-05)  
7. Eric Massa (NY-29)
8. Paul Kanjorski (PA-11)
9. Chet Edwards (TX-17)
10. Betsy Markey (CO-04)
11. Mike Arcuri (NY-24)
12. Mike McMahon (NY-13)
13. Alan Grayson (FL-08)
14. Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
15. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15)

This is how I see it now. Of course, this will likely change in the coming months as we find out GOP challenges, fundraising #s, voting records, approval ratings, and more.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

Btw...
When do I get to pull out my list of the 15 most vulnerable GOPers? ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
NY-13
really?  I dont see why.  If nobody was going to challenge him this year, why would anyone do so now?  He's Safe Dem for life.
[ Parent ]
I don't see NY-13 either
Fossella was not a hardcore Republican (pun not intended), and I believe that McMahon will be fine as long as he doesn't do anything too stupid.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
What's the pun?
I don't get it.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Not quite...
Sure, McMahon isn't in that much danger. That's why he's near the bottom of my list. Still, let's remember two things:

1. McCain won this CD.
2. The GOP has a fairly strong bench, at least stronger than any other part of NYC.

I'd rate NY-13 as "Leans Democratic". It's not on the top of the GOP hit list, but nowhere near the bottom either.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
Volunteered on McMahon's campaign...
And the level of love Staten Islanders (including MANY republicans) showed for him would make me absolutely shocked if, barring scandal, he were ever bumped from that seat.  Who knows, but I would rank a good 40-50 seats ahead of it.  
[ Parent ]
Redistricting
It seems like McMahon got a pass this year largely because repubs knew the 13th was going to be transformed into a more democratic district in 2012.  Stands to reason they will pass on 2010 as well.
[ Parent ]
That makes sense...
Still, it's not all that often that the GOP makes sense. But maybe if someone in the NRCC is smart enough to look at redistricting trends, they may not try too hard to win a pyrrhic victory in 2010.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Huh?
For the record, the words "smart" and "NRCC" should never be used in the same sentence.
[ Parent ]
My 11
Not surprisingly, all freshman.

Minnick    ID 1
Nye        VA 2
Perriello  VA 5
Krotavil   MD 1
Bright     AL 2
Kosmos     FL 24
Kilroy     OH 15
Markey     CO 4
Halvorson  IL 11
Dahlkemper PA 3

Oh, 15 what you wanted?
Okay, here's four more:

Grayson  FL 8
Teague   NM 2
Marshall GA 8
Parker   AL 5

[ Parent ]
My list
1. Walt Minnick, ID-1
2. Frank Kratovil, MD-1
3. Bobby Bright, AL-2
4. Chet Edwards, TX-17
5. Steve Kagen, WI-8
6. Mike Arcuri, NY-24
7. Chris Carney, PA-10
8. Kathy Dahlkemper,PA-3
9. Dina Titus, NV-3
10.Parker Griffith, AL-5
11.Harry Mitchell, AZ-5
12.Tom Perriello, VA-5
13.Paul Kanjorski, PA-11
14.Jerry McNerney,CA-11
15.Allen Grayson,FL-8

Notes:  Mitchell's 53% is the low mark among Giffords, Mitchell, and Kirkpatrick.  The plus is that McCain won't be running for President.  Minus that, he's easy top 5.

Arcuri won easier than either Hall or Gillibrand in 2006 and did not have the monster fundraiser that faised Gillibrand.  But he struggled badly.

Titus got only 47%.  Otherwise, she's a sharp politician.

Without the recount sore loser stuff, Perriello would be higher on the list.

Grayson may be able to contribute more to the House than any other freshman if he is allowed to pursue the bad contracts and insider deals.  He could and should be a standout for the next 20 years a la the Golden Fleece awards of the past.  His district is trending D.

I've got a lot of PAs listed.  If Corbett is the juggernaut some expect (why?) it is justified.  Carney has the toughest district of the newbies.

Chet Edwards 53% was a huge warning sign.  McCain was on the ticket, not Bush.  

Disagree on Edwards.
He's safe in midterms, when turnout is lower; presidential years bring out more voters, which drops his percentage a bit, but he did better in 2008 than he did in 2004 in the same district (53-45 compared to 51-47); good trends.

Certainly, this seat will never be taken for granted, but this will not be in the upper echelon of Republican targets.

[ Parent ]
I considered Edwards...
but I left him off my list.  However, Edwards could be targeted if Obama becomes wildly unpopular in Texas.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Apples + Oranges
In 2004 Chet was facing a sitting state rep who had all kinds of cash funneled into her (and she was crazy)

in 2008 Chet faced a guy who had been fined for misusing money, never held office, had been beaten 2 times before in the GOP primary, and raised no real cash.

I finished crowdsourcing TX-17 a few days ago. The district got about 1 point more friendly towards democrats, so no change. Areas directly south of Fort Worth are hard straight R voters and Brazos county/College Station (Texas A&M) was none too friendly either. McClennend County (Waco, Baylor College) was significantly more friendly and open to Chet.

If Chet survives 2010 I expect him to get a new district that takes parts of TX-31 (Carter). Essentially, he'd get parts of McClenan, Bell, Williamson, and Travis county.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
But how hard did Chet campaign in 2008?
I assume he campaigned harder in 2004 against state rep.  And I know he gave some money to the D-trip this past cycle (which may even have hurt him slightly in the polls).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Good points.
Still, I'd like to counter your arguments on a few of your picks.

9. Dina Titus- Maybe if I had a Top 20 list, she'd possibly be #19 or #20. Yes, she only won by 5%. However, she ran against an entrenched GOP incumbent who posed well as a "moderate"... And NV-03 is a fast-Dem-trending district that Obama won by 13%! Unless NV Dems suddenly stop running a great organization, I doubt she's all that vulnerable.

11. Harry Mitchell- Sure, he may never have it all that easy. However, I'm confident that Obama would have carried AZ-05 had the GOP nominee not been McCain. Also, Mitchell is centrist enough to be considered "mainstream" in this moderate district.

14. Jerry McNerney- He went from a no-name in 2004 to a shocker in 2006 to an incumbent winning by 10% in 2008. CA-11 is trending Dem, so time is working against the GOP here.

Other than those, your list looks awfully good. Thanks for sharing. :-)

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
List
1) Walt Minnick (ID-01)
2) Bobby Bright (AL-02)
3) Frank Kratovil (MD-01)
4) Tom Periello (VA-05)
5) Parker Griffith (AL-05)
6) Glenn Nye (VA-02)
7) Betsy Markey (CO-04)
8) Eric Massa (NY-29)
9) Harry Teague (NM-02)
10) Steve Driehaus (OH-01)
11) Travis Childers (MS-01)
12) Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
13) Alan Grayson (FL-08)
14) Kathleen Dahlkemper (PA-03)
15) Mark Schauer (MI-07)

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Repugs just for fun.
Trouble with hitting most of your targets for two cycles is you run out of targets.  Only Cao looks particularly appetizing here...

1) Joseph Cao (LA-02)
2) Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
3) Dave Reichert (WA-08)
4) Tom Rooney (FL-20)
5) Mark Kirk (IL-10)
6) Michelle Bachmann (MN-06)
7) Erik Paulson (MN-03)
8) Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
9) Thad McCotter (MI-11)
10) Don Young (AK-AL)
11) John Fleming (LA-04)
12) Bill Cassidy (LA-06)
13) Bill Posey (FL-15)
14) Blaine Leutkemayer (MO-09)
15) Christopher Lee (NY-26)

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Depends on the money advantage
While I expect there may be a lot more money spent on defense in 2010 than in 08 or 06 - do y'all think that an early money-bomb could have a huge impact against Castle (DE-AL) or Latham (IA-04) or other marginal incumbents in lower-cost TV markets?
[ Parent ]
Mike Castle is almost entirely
within the Philly market. That's an EXPENSIVE seat.  
[ Parent ]
Point taken...
Any other Dem-friendly districts in low-cost markets?
[ Parent ]
Some possibilities...
What is the price of TV in Eastern Alabama?  AL-03 is ripe for the taking.  Phoenix and Sacramento couldn't be too bad (AZ-03, CA-03).  What about Tampa Bay for FL-09, FL-10, and FL-12?  What media market does FL-16 sit in?  What about IL-13?  I doesn't include any expensive Chicago market.  IA-04 would take in not-so-expensive Des Moines.  Maybe Grand Rapids for MI-04?  Lansing for MI-06 and MI-08?  We'd have to do Detroit for MI-11, yes?  Kansas City for MO-06 again?  Omaha wouldn't be an expensive buy, and Terry is not beloved.  Dayton for OH-03 and Columbus for OH-12.  What reaches PA-15?  Not Philly, I would think.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
FL-16
I believe the closest big city is Palm Beach.
[ Parent ]
FL-16
would be west palm beach and ft myers media markets.
[ Parent ]
PA-15
I lived in the district twice in the early 70s and in the late 90s.

There's a minor station in Allentown but most people in the area have cable.  Cable TV was invented in this district in 1948 IIRC.  And if people have cable the network stations they watch are from NYC and Philly.  Political ads tend to be on local cable (or were when I lived there).

The interesting thing is that Allentown is linked to Philly through the Northeast extension of the PA Turnpike while Easton is much closer to NYC through Route 78.  At least at the time, there were 18 busses a day to NYC from Easton vs. 4 for Philly.  

[ Parent ]
So, in essence, that doesn't help
So, we still have to rely on Philly and NYC for TV into Allentown?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
IA-4
would be Des Moines but also Mason City and cedar falls/waterloo.
[ Parent ]
Wow
Damn, it stretches alot farther east on its northern edge than I thought.  I thought that would have been IA-01.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Castle will be hard to defeat
I think if Castle has any severe health issues, he may become vulnerable.  Also, he will be 71 in 2010, and he might just become fed up in working in the minority.  I think the Dems can pick up seats like Castle IF there is no chance of the GOP becoming the majority party in the near future.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
de-al
if castle retires, the seat is ours. beau will take the senate seat that place-holder in waiting kaufman will let up and carney will easily beat ne gop-er that they throw as a token against him. the repubs will be tryin to take back seats that r much more winnable for them then trying to throw money they dont have at an open seat in the philly market in a district thats slippin away from them. even if he dosent retire, carney is a young, ambitious politician w an impressive resume. i just doubt hell try to take out castle and risk future runs if he dosent absolutely think he can win

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma
[ Parent ]
OK, if you can do it...
I can do it, too!

1. Joseph Cao (LA-02)
2. Dave Reichert (WA-08)
3. Ken Calvert (CA-44)
4. Jim Gerlach (PA-06)
5. Brian Bilbray (CA-50)
6. Dan Lungren (CA-03)
7. Leonard Lance (NJ-07)
8. Erik Paulson (MN-03)  
9. Thad McCotter (MI-11)
10. Tom McClintock (CA-04)
11. Don Young (AK-AL)
12. Mark Kirk (IL-10)
13. David Dreier (CA-26)
14. Bill Cassidy (LA-06)
15. Christopher Lee (NY-26)

I know I have a lot of CA seats on this list, but let's face it... Here's where many our best pick-up opportunities are! :-)
 

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
15 Most Vulnerable Repubs
1) Joseph Cao LA-02
2) Ken Calvert CA-44
3) Thad McCotter MI-11
4) Jim Gerlach PA-06
5) Dave Reichert WA-08
6) Brian Bilbray CA-50
7) Erik Paulsen MN-03
8) Michele Bachmann MN-06
9) Judy Biggert IL-13
10) Leonard Lance NJ-07
11) Vern Buchanan FL-13
12) Mark Kirk IL-10
13) Lee Terry NE-02
14) Dan Lungren CA-03
15) Chris Lee NY-26

Some might be wondering why I placed Vern Buchanan on the list, but I think if he has a different challenger (Not Christine Jennings!) then I think we have a shot at taking him down.

[ Parent ]
Rooney is FL-16 not 20
And I seriously doubt he'll have any trouble getting re-elected.  He was solid candidate even before Mahoney destroyed his own campaign and our bench in that district is near empty.
[ Parent ]
FL-16
This is usually a fairly reliable district for the Republicans, isn't it?  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
It was for a long time with an entrenched, popular Mark Foley.
The district is only R+2, if memory serves.  No reason we can't take this one back.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Misleading number
The R+2 number is very misleading.  The district may be pretty well split in Presidential races, but it consistently votes for repubs in local races.

The Democratic bench is empty in that district.  I'll double-check but I don't think there's a single state rep or state senate seat held by a dem in that district.  

[ Parent ]
Disagree.
Rooney was an unknown and set to be lit up by Mahoney before the scandal broke.  Republicans had pulled out as I recall.  The fact that Mahoney pulled 40% suggests to me that the Prince of Darkness Lucifer himself would have pulled 45%.  

We have a great candidate in the district - State Senator Dave Aronberg, if he runs.  Rooney's margin was a fluke and I think this will be a tip top opportunity.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Ditto
Aronberg would be the guy - if he will run.  
[ Parent ]
term limited
When is he term-limited from running for the state Senate again?
[ Parent ]
15 most Vulnerable Dems
1) Walt Minnick ID-01
2) Bobby Bright AL-02
3) Frank Kratovil MD-01
4) Tom Periello VA-05
5) Dennis Moore KS-03
6) Parker Griffith AL-05
7) Betsy Markey CO-04
8) Paul Kanjorski PA-11
9) Mike Arcuri NY-24
10) Glenn Nye VA-02
11) Eric Massa NY-29
12) Chet Edwards TX-17
13) Dina Titus NV-03
14) Mark Schauer MI-07
15) Mary Jo Kilroy OH-15

The reason Dennis Moore is ranked no. 5 is due to a supposed retirement. If this is true, his seat is going to be a bitch to hold on to.

Moore announced a week or two ago
that he is running for reelection.
[ Parent ]
My list
(1) Mimmick ID-01
(2) Kratovil MD-01
(3) Bright  AL-02
(4) Perrillo  VA-05
(5) Nye  VA-02
(6) Griffith AL-05
(7) Markey  CO-04
(8) Grayson Fl-08
(9) Kagen WI-08
(10) Moore KS-03 (retirement?)
(11) Massa (NY-29)
(12) Acuri (NY-24)
(13) Shea-Porter (NH-01) (if she runs for Gregg's senate seat.
(14) Kanjorski (PA-11)
(15) Shuler (NC-11) (If he runs for Burr's senate seat).

Depending on the mood of the South regarding Obama's administration, I could also see guys like Jim Marshal1, Childers, Grayson, and Kissell becoming targets.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

nh-1, nc 11
totally agree w these. if they run for senate (which i think well start seeing the freshman class of 06 start to do nxt cycle) then these immediately go to toss up. being a new englander, id hate to see one of our districts go red again but nh has gone from red to purple to basically indigo now and i think itll b a pretty safe, if hard fought, hold. not too familiar w appalachian north carolina politics, but id assume wed have a few good candidates there

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma
[ Parent ]
NC-11
A democrat needs to be in the mold of Heath Shuler.  Heath is pro-life, pro-gun, and an economic populist.  He's not as conservative once you look past the cultural issues.  I actually believe that Shuler could easily beat Burr IF he can get past the Democratic Primary.  I'd rather have Roy Cooper in the Senate, but if Heath is more electable, I'd go with Heath.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Here we go
My list:

1) Minnick ID-01
2) Bright AL-02
3) Kratovil MD-01
4) Childers MS-01
5) Markey CO-04
6) Periello VA-05
7) Nye VA-02
8) Griffith AL-05
9) Marshall GA-08
10) Teague NM-02
11) Massa NY-29
12) Mitchell AZ-05
13) Kosmas FL-24
14) Carney PA-10
15) Dahlkemper PA-03

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
If your opponent was insane, you may be in trouble.
Probably gone:
1. Walt Minnick (ID-01) - defeated a lunatic

In real danger:
2. Bobby Bright (AL-02) - opponent weakened by primary
3. Tom Perriello (VA-05) - extremist opponent
4. Frank Kratovil (MD-01) - extremist opponent
5. Betsy Markey (CO-04) - extremist opponent

Will have to fight:
6. Glenn Nye (VA-02)
7. Mike Arcuri (NY-24) - incumbent defeated 3rd-tier GOP opponent by 4%
8. Eric Massa (NY-29) - opponent pulled two shotguns on his wife
9. Travis Childers (MS-01) - weak opponent
10. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03)
11. Mark Schauer (MI-07) - extremist opponent

Probably will survive:
12. Alan Grayson (FL-08) - huge shift in Dem registration
13. Harry Teague (NM-02) - good fit for district
14. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15) - defeated decent GOP candidate in swing district
15. Parker Griffith (AL-05) - weak GOP bench

What's interesting is that most of these endangered Democrats most likely were elected in the first place only due to the flaws of their GOP opponents. Taking out those weak Republicans clears the way for a stronger GOP candidate in the next cycle. However, some of these are very strong candidates and good fits for their districts, so I actually think almost all of them will survive 2010. Childers and Arcuri are the only ones on my list who were elected prior to the 2008 general election.

Watch list:
Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24) - Feeney was tied to Abramoff, but she still won by 16% in a GOP-leaning district
Bill Foster (IL-14) - re-elected easily but with Obama at top of ticket and against a weak opponent he already defeated
Jim Marshall (GA-08) - won by 14% in 2008 but by only 1% in 2006
Debbie Halvorson (IL-11) - won by 23% in 2008, but against a second-choice candidate
Paul Kanjorski (PA-11) - only Barletta could make it competitive, for some reason, and he could run again in 2010. Also, Kanjorski won with 72% in 2006 and only 52% in 2008. Barletta can't be THAT appealing.

Not on my list:
Chris Carney (PA-10) - conservative enough for his district
Gary Peters (MI-09) - Detroit is in no mood for Republicans
Larry Kissell (NC-08) - won convincingly in 2008, moderate enough for the district
Steve Kagen (WI-08) - defeated state Speaker by healthy margin
Steve Driehaus (OH-01) - broad appeal
John Boccieri (OH-16) - broad appeal
Dennis Moore (KS-03) - always on everyone's list because of the district's PVI but never really in danger

Everyone else seems safe at this point, but anything can happen.

Perriello
While Goode was an extremist, I don't think his district saw him that way, as he used to be a Democrat and did even vote for the minimum wage increase. I think that was just a case of a district trending more and more Democratic and Perriello ran a terrific campaign, with campaign offices all across the district early on and great tv ads going after lobbyists and corporations. He's a great fit for the district, so I think he'll be safe. It's kind of like the Yarmuth case, once you go Perriello you don't go back.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
His generalizations about Muslims are why I labeled him an extremist, but you're probably right: his district might not have seen him that way. And I definitely agree about Perriello and his campaign.
[ Parent ]
But Yarmuth
represents traditional lean dem dist.
[ Parent ]
Michigan
Agreed that Gary Peters is pretty safe, that district should be decently Democratic now. It's Detroit suburbs, not the city though.

About Mark Schauer, it depends who the Republicans find to run. A moderate can't survive their primary (i.e. Joe Schwarz, 2008) unless the conservatives split the vote (Joe Schwarz, 2006). The district isn't so rough numbers-wise for a Democrat either, I believe Obama won it? So don't count Schauer out.

[ Parent ]
Off topic, but who can resist talking about more vulnerable Republicans?
We still have PLENTY of GOP targets for 2010, and we'll have even more after the redistricting in 2012.

First Tier:
1. Ahn Cao (LA-02) - The great news is Jefferson is finally gone and we have the first Vietnamese-American in Congress. Other great news is that his stay in Congress will be very temporary.
2. Don Young (AK-AL) - Surely it won't happen twice in a row. One party or the other HAS to take him out.
3. Thaddeus McCotter (MI-11) - A Detroit-area district re-electing a Republican now?
4. Jim Gerlach (PA-06) - Dem district, won by only 4% in 2008 and 1% in 2006.
5. Ken Calvert (CA-44) - Shockingly won by only 2% in 2008.
6. Mark Kirk (IL-10) - Likely to run for Senate if there's a special election. An open seat would lean Dem for sure, but I don't think Kirk would have to resign to run in a special. I think Roskam would win the primary anyway.
7. Erik Paulsen (MN-03) - I thought we had this one in 2008.
8. Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25)
9. Charles Dent (PA-15) - Dem district; need a decent candidate.
10. Dave Reichert (WA-08) - Heartbreaker. Must keep trying.

Second Tier:
11. Daniel Lungren (CA-03) - Surprisingly close in 2008.
12. Michele Bachmann (MN-06) - Lunatics = weak candidates
13. Chris Lee (NY-26) - with the right challenger
14. Bill Posey (FL-15) - Get 'em while they're fresh.
15. John Fleming (LA-04) - Surely the Mouche will try again.
16. Mike Rogers (AL-03) - Any idea why this was so close?
17. Judy Biggert (IL-13)

Third Tier (no particular order):
Pete King (NY-03) - Will move to top tier if he runs for Senate. No idea why a Dem district keeps electing such an extremist who hates Muslims and bashes the NAACP and AARP.
Tom Latham (IA-04) - Slightly Dem district
Brian Bilbray (CA-50) - Kinda tired of this one popping up.
Bill Young (FL-10) - Dem district, and Young is not young.
Lee Terry (NE-02) - Someone can win this, but it won't be Esch this cycle.
Frank Lobiondo (NJ-02) - Dem district
Leonard Lance (NJ-07) - Swing district
Joe Wilson (SC-02) - No idea what's going on here.
Tom Rooney (FL-16) - Rooney will probably hold this seat easily, but the right candidate could be competitive.
Dean Heller (NV-02) - Will probably be gone after redistricting, but Nevada is set to gain a seat, so maybe he'll find a home after all.
John Shadegg (AZ-03)
David Dreier (CA-26)
Michael McCaul (TX-10)

Watch List:
Bill Cassidy (LA-06) - Second-tier if Cazayoux runs again.
Tom McClintock (CA-03) - Top-tier if Brown runs again.
Blaine Luetkemeyer (MO-09) - Top-tier if Baker runs again.
OPEN (MI-02) - Hoekstra retiring, anything can happen.
Mike Castle (DE-AL) - Only if Castle retires.
Scott Garrett (NJ-05) - Just to piss off Stu Rothenberg.

[ Parent ]
I can comment on a few
AL-03 was close because it was actually designed to be.  It's only like R+4 or so in PVI and, so, far more baseline Democratic than AL-02.  Auburn just needs to turn out better.  With the right challengers, all of your top-ten go down, though Calvert won't be easy.  I think he was caught mid-snooze, like Arcuri was for us.  Both will likely wake up, but demographics are trending against Calvert. Lungren SHOULD be close and hasn't been, so this may be a good sign of things to come.  What is the bench for FL-10, FL-15 and FL-16?  Most of these Florida districts have moderate PVIs and should be vulnerable (no, not Crenshaw or whatever twit now has the Redneck Riviera in FL-01).  The problem is challengers or, in some cases, a family name.  Bonoff should beat Paulsen in MN-03.  Bachmann needs to be a continued target, but who can do the honors?  Chris Lee's stay is temporary, for sure, and we should have taken out Biggert along time ago.  Except for Shimkus, Johnson, and maybe Manzullo, I don't see a safe Illinois Republican out there?  The biggest problem in New Jersey is that the county parties would rather fight than play nice with the state party.  Only Frelinghuysen should survive by rights.  We'll see what we can do in Michigan...

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
RE: SC-02
26% African American and contains a few cosmopolitan areas of Columbia and Hilton Head. Also Hilton Head is a popular wealthy retirement community with higher than average Jewish population sort of like Charleston so that helps.
If we could figure out a way to control part of the SC redistricting efforts and fiddle with SC 06 a little we could totally win this seat when Obama runs for reelection in 2012 by getting rid of the western Columbia suburbs. I wouldn't try it until that though because AA turnout won't be good enough.  
[ Parent ]
I'd like to see the ages
of the incumbent republicans.  I invision many of the older guys will decide to hang 'em up again in 2010.  I think there were about 20 or so retirements in 2008, and I can see this again.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
Electoral-Vote.com usually does a piece about that at some point
So just bookmark that page and check it daily

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I have a list
right here.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Am I the only one...
Who thinks Bobby Bright will be just fine in 2008?  I'm not sure I'd put him in the top 3 as so many, and maybe not in the top 5.  Honestly, I know the district is extremely republican.  But Bright strikes me as exactly the type of candidate who can easily hold an R+10 or worse deep south district as people like Gene Taylor and to a lesser extend Childers.
I put him at #2 but I agree.
I think he's a perfect fit and I think he'll thrive. The problem is that I don't see very many Democrats being all that vulnerable in 2010. Plus, the only information we have to work with at this point is an outdated PVI, the election results, and hunches.
[ Parent ]
PVI isn't perfect anyway.
Old election data and our hunches are probably the most useful thing at this point.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
meant to comment earlier
but agreed and what I've thought since he got elected.  Barely won, probably won't face another stiff competititon, unless it's in 2010.  But Southerners seem to keep ahold of their incumbents, but hopefully the exception will be LA in 2010.  Man did that state f us kinda hard with congressional races this year.  More so than Ohio in 2006.  At least they gave us back Landrieu.
[ Parent ]
Hmm
It seems to be the consensus that Minnick, Kratovil, Periello, Griffith, and maybe Bobby Bright are in big trouble. Still, these seats are still winnable if Obama's numbers are in decent shape. Kratovil can hold the seat as long as he is smart and works hard, just as Chris Shays held CT-04 all those years. Griffith should be safe, as was his predecessor in the seat and because the GOP is actually pretty weak there, and Bright is a pretty popular figure and should hold on.

Others I've seen mentioned are Mike Arcuri and Paul Kanjorski, among others, who should be able to hold their seats easily. Arcuri was frankly pretty lazy up there in Utica, and since he survived a huge surprise he should do much better in the future. Kanjorski was lazy, but this time had to work hard and held on, and probably will stay in the seat until redistricting, when he (hopefully) retires. The Ohio and Michigan seats are solid blue for at least a short time, because of the GOP's moronic movement against high-profile American manufacturing. I would not be surprised to pick up another Michigan seat next cycle, actually.

One thing to remember is which members were elected with the help of huge black turnout. Kissel, Nye, and Periello all better work hard to hold those seats.

Also, keep an eye on CT-04. Shays is gone and won't return, but it's quite possible that some rich Gold Coaster Republican shows up and hits Himes hard. Himes actually only won 3 cities in the district- Bridgeport, Norwalk, and Stamford. Minority turnout was key to his win, especially in Bridgeport. If he does not become especially popular or cannot deliver a large minority turnout, he may be in trouble. Though weak, CT's GOP still has a large enough base and enough lying BS-artists to win an election here or there (see Joe Lieberman).

Griffith should be OK
N. Alabama voted pretty heavily for McCain and elected him anyway.  
[ Parent ]
Obama did significantly worse
in Northern Alabama than did Kerry.  Gee I wonder why.
[ Parent ]
Fifteen
1. ID-01 (Walt Minnick)
2. AL-02 (Bobby Bright - D)
3. MD-01 (Frank Kratovil - D)
4. VA-05 (Tom Perriello - D)
5. PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski - D)
6. OH-15 (Mary Jo Kilroy - D)
7. NY-29 (Eric Massa - D)
8. CO-04 (Betsy Markey - D)
9. PA-03 (Kathy Dahlkemper - D)
10. AL-05 (Parker Griffith - D)
11. NY-24 (Mike Arcuri - D)
12. MI-07 (Mark Schauer - D)
13. FL-24 (Suzanne Kosmas - D)
14. MS-01 (Travis Childers - D)
15. GA-08 (Jim Marshall - D)


Good list, but
No way Kilroy and Massa are in more trouble than Markey, and I think Arcuri's safer than people are saying.  We're panicked, but he sleepwalked through that race. Chances are he won't do it again.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Kilroy and Massa
Kilroy concerns me because she took a race that she should have walked away with and only barely won it. She needs to win over the non-Franklin parts of her district quickly.

Massa is still in a very Republican district (54-44 McCain despite Obama winning 63-36 statewide). I think he's a good fit, but being a freshman in a red district is rarely a path to easy victory.

[ Parent ]
Most Vulnerable Dems...
It seems like most top fives consist of Minnick, Kratovil, Bright, Periello and Betsy Markey. I tend to agree.

1. Walt Minnick - ID-1
2. Frank Kratovil - MD-1
3. Bobby Bright - AL-2
4. Tom Periello - VA-05
5. Betsy Markey - CO-04
6. Suzanne Kosmas - FL-24
7. Mark Schauer - MI-07
8. Mary Jo Kilroy - OH-15
9. Glenn Nye - VA-02
10. Parker Griffith - AL-5
11. Eric Massa - NY-29
12. Travis Childers - MS-1
13. Mike Arcuri - NY-24
(I think his close race was a wake-up call.)
14. Jim Marshall - GA-08
15. Chet Edwards - TX-17

In favor of Minnick
I'm seeing Walt Minnick at #1 on almost all the lists (or maybe it even IS all?) Not unreasonable given how red that district is. But let's not forget, while Bill Sali was bats**t crazy, he was the incumbent and he had no serious scandals (the worst I can think of is that his campaign office was in the 2nd district), and McCain carried the district by a wide margin. And for all that, Minnick won. Next time around there will be no presidential race at the top of the ticket, and the GOP primary is almost certain to be very crowded, which will likely play to Minnick's advantage. And in the district that gave us not only Sali but also Helen Chenoweth and Steve Symms (not to mention Mr. Wide Stance), there's a better-than-even chance that whoever does get the GOP nod will be yet another nutcase.

All I'm saying is, let's not give Minnick up for a one-term wonder just yet.  

Yeah, it is rather amusing that Minnick and Cao top the two lists consistently.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I think it can go both ways
Maybe I'm still a noob but here is what I think I've taken away from 06 and 08.

Winning red seats in a presidential year is harder because that is when everyone actually votes and it's harder to run against the general lean of the district if that entire lean is out voting while in 06, so many Republicans stayed home.  SC-1 would be an example where I think we could've won if it were a mid-term and the voting population was cut in half.

So with this, we can say look the Dems in tough districts even won during a presidential year!

However, even though Sali didn't have any scandals, he still has a reputation of being a dumb ass that nobody likes.  Musgrave is a crazy, Harris is a Club for Shrinking'er, while I think Bright has the best shot because he was against a normal, likable opponent.

So with Minnick, if he won because Sali was a horrible incumbent that nobody liked, then he is a goner in 2010 more likely than not, even with the general lean vote not coming out.  But if he won based off of Minnick's merits, then 2010 should be even easier.  (I feel like a political scientist, arguing both ways but not giving an answer.)

[ Parent ]
It's regional
In the south, Presidential years tend to be better for Democrats. That's because black turnout tends to go up.  
[ Parent ]
Good point
Especially so this year with Obama on the ballot.  Of course Louisiana decided to screw us out of two seats thanks to the December run-offs where black turnout was low.  Carmouche (LA-04) would have won by a solid margin had the election been on the actual election day.  As would Jefferson, though that's a loss I'm perfectly content with.
[ Parent ]
Good point indeed
it seems that there are two types of increased voter turn-out, with one obviously favoring us and one disfavoring us.

In the South, increased voter turn-out helps because as stated previously, AA are the ones primarily not voting.

However, in lilly white districts with a GOP lean, like most of our targets this cycle, increased turn-out means increased regular Joe turn-out who will vote the district/nationally leaning.

So to see if increased turn-out helps us or not, simply look at who isn't turning out already which makes it definitely a regional thing.  Good to point out.  Thanks.

[ Parent ]
Dems. in '10
There will be no Dem. loses in 2010...no one will be vulnerable
There's
Some great optimism for you!
[ Parent ]
I hope you're right.


My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Markey
should probably be lower on the list. Her 2010 opponent will most likely be just as crazy as Musgrave, and as someone who lives in CO-4, I can tell you that even if Bob Schaffer decides he wants his old seat back, he has worn out his welcome with his back to back statewide losses, and he didn't carry the district in his senate run against Udall. Combine that with Markey's image as a moderate and Colorado's changing demographics, and I think she will be tough (but not impossible) to beat.
House 2010: Most Vulnerable Dems | 97 comments

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