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PA-Gov, PA-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread

by: James L.

Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 10:00 AM EST


A couple of biggies today. In terms of redistricting alone, holding the Pennsylvania Governor's office is pretty crucial for Democrats. Who would you like to see run for the big office? And who do you expect to see line up for the Reds?

And while we're on the Keystone State, who would you like to see face off against snarlin' Arlen in 2010?
James L. :: PA-Gov, PA-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread
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PA-Gov, PA-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread | 54 comments
So many candidates in our blue-ening state
But I'd say Schwartz for Governor, Patrick Murphy for Senator.

I think Specter might consider this his last run, so who knows if he'll go all out or run half-hearted.  My guess is all-out but having Schwartz and Murphy running in 2010 together would drive up margins in Philly suburbs, which could be Arlen's downfall since he polls well in Philly and burbs (for a Republican).

PA
I've read the Schwartz for Governor and Murphy for Senator scenario several times on here.  Is there any chance that it's Schwartz who ultimately goes for the Senate seat and Murphy makes the gubernatorial run?  
[ Parent ]
No
Neither Schwartz nor Murphy will run for governor.  Both don't want to go to Washington and neither has ANY executive experience nor an executive personality.

Neither, one or both will run for Senate and/or reelection.  Murphy seems to be more likely to run against Specter (who is actively gearing up) than Schwartz.

[ Parent ]
I would agree on Murphy
The fact that he used the issue of his service in Iraq as his launching pad for his political career makes a run for Governor unlikely.

But for Schwartz she served in the state senate and I don't think a Gov. race is totally out of the question.

[ Parent ]
Correction ----
Both don't want to go to Harrisburg.  They both like DC a lot.
[ Parent ]
Tweety for Senate!!

Casey for Governor
I think a lot of the names being mentioned will have a hard time against Tom Corbett in the governor's race.  If Casey runs, I think he would likely beat him and hold the executive office for us for redistricting.  And perhaps Ed Rendell could end up in the Senate afterwards.  

I have not heard this idea much, but I hope Casey is giving it some thought since we know he has had serious interest in being governor in the past.

Maybe...
I guess that would be a good way to get him out of the Senate & perhaps replace him with a better Democrat. As long as Casey doesn't go too religious right on us, I'm OK with him as Governor.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
What has Casey been bad on?
Stem Cells and Choice are all I can think of.  On every other issue his Senate record seems pretty solid.  He's been a lot better than I thought he would be.  Plus he's the type of Dem we probably never have to worry about losing since he has the right triangulated on a few key social issues.  
[ Parent ]
But that's just it...
What still concerns me about Casey is that he's so far right (meaning WRONG) on reproductive rights & LGBT civil rights. Gov. Rendell has signed executive orders on non-discrimination, and I don't want to see a Gov. Casey reverse all of them. All I'm saying is that I'm OK with Casey as Governor as long as he doesn't screw us over on our civil rights.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
But that's just it
In the Senate there are going to be few if any votes on those issues anytime in the near future with Dems in control.  Only stem cells will come up and we have enough votes and then some to pass anything on that without Casey.

As Governor he'd probably have a bit more to say on choice than he does in the Senate.

[ Parent ]
He's horrible on choice
but RPC Jr. is actually pretty OK on LGBT issues. He co-sponsored the Matthew Shepard Act.
[ Parent ]
He's been pretty good
On LGBT issues. The only time I really remember being dissapointed in him was on the stem cell vote where we were 1 vote away from overriding Bush's veto.

On abortion, the issues rarely comes up except for judges and now with Obama in office I'm not really that worried about judges. Also remember that no Senator was more instrumental in getting Clarence Thomas confirmed than the pro-choice Arlen Specter.

[ Parent ]
He has been decent
"I don't support gay marriage, but I also don't support a constitutional amendment banning it," Casey told the Philadelphia Jewish Voice in October 2005. "... However, I do support same-sex unions that would give gay couples all the rights, privileges and protections of marriage."

As others have pointed out, he sponsored legislation protecting gays from discrimination.  He did not hide his support from the gay community, speaking at the Human Rights Campaign dinner in Philadelphia during the race.  He did not back down from his support for civil unions when talking with conservative religious groups.

He has been decent on these issues.

As you noted Arlen got Thomas on the court, when some rather conservative Democrats voted against Thomas' confirmation.  When it comes to the important issue of the Supreme Court, even some old Dixiecrats were better than Arlen.

I have no doubt that Casey will support any justice nominated by our new president.

I had lived in Nebraska for several years, and it was the fight over 416 that got me more involved in the Democratic Party, as well as joining the ACLU.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
Casey is fine.

Abortion and stem-cell research.  Meh, big issues, not an important vote whatsoever.

There will be no vote on stem-cell research.  That spending ban was done through an excutive order so bam, Obama's position is all that matters, not Casey's.

And Reid is our majority leader and he is pro-life.  There is still absolutely no way he would bring up abortion votes.  Anything he brought up would probably be the end of him being majority leader, especially if it passed.  Seriously, there is absolutely ZERO way the Democratic Party would allow him to continue on as majority leader if pro-life crap got passed because of him.  Basically the entire women wing of the party would freak, as would many of the men.

Nothing is going to come up.  The day we lose the Senate is the day we need to be annoyed about Casey and his pro-life stance.  And come on, if we have another solid raping of their caucus in 2010 as we have in 2006 and 2008, which looks promising, then we are set for a very long lasting majority.  Then we go through the usual 12, 14, 16 losses where we lose the seats we shouldn't have won.  12 doesnt look too bad, we can hold our own, 14 could be a bit of a loss, mid-term through second term.  If Franken wins, I give him like a 5% chance of winning again...  Paulsen would annhilate him.  Safe politician.  We'll have to see how Franken does as a Senator, Reid should IMMEDIATLY streamline to him powerful committees and  allow him some limelight on legislation if they want to keep him.  I worry about Begich too but that's really about it.  The seats we win in 2010 are going to be in states where we can keep them.  That's the thing, I don't think we'll lose too many seats as we are winning in states that are trending our way and that we can keep.

Casey being pro-life is a non-issue for probably quite some time.

[ Parent ]
It didn't matter, we were short in the House
We were well short in the House of overriding Bush's veto.  Something like 20+ votes short.  Even if the Senate overrode the veto the House would not have.
[ Parent ]
I thought all you
Needed in the House was a simple majority.
[ Parent ]
No,
2/3 vote in both Houses (Article I, Section 7)
[ Parent ]
Ditto
As publius said.  Veto overrides require 2/3rds in both Senate and House.
[ Parent ]
Out of the hundreds of votes Casey has cast since he entered Congress
how many have been on abortion or teh gheys? Maybe 6? Funny how those things only come up when the GOP is in power and most often in the weeks leading up to an election. Hmmm.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
The only equality issue to come up will be DADT, and 75%+ of the public supports them serving openly.  I doubt we'd need his vote to get that rule overturned, but even if we did would he really oppose it?  
[ Parent ]
no
definitely not.  I wonder which Dems will.  Lincoln, Pryor, Landreiu, Nelson, Montana's and North Dakota's duo?

And what Republicans will vote with us, Grassley?, Specter, Snowe, Lugar?, Voinivich?, Collins.  Any other ones?  I just wonder what kind of pressure the Senators will be on considering the public supports it by 75%, that's HUGE.  McCain would support it under normal circumstances, Murkowski?, Gregg?

[ Parent ]
Voinovich's moderation comes from economic views, not his social ones.
I very much doubt he would vote for anything pro-gay. Grassley would also vote no for sure. He's firmly in the pocket of the fundies. For DADT, I think we'd have Collins, Snowe, and Specter for sure. I'd also lean Gregg and Murkowski our way. On the off chance John Warner hadn't retired, he'd have voted for the repeal as well.

I would reckon zero Dems would vote against it except maybe Byrd. He's got a bit of the old school in him still. The only other Dem who was in favor of the far more controversial FMA was Ben Nelson but he'd be with us for this.

[ Parent ]
Now that I think about it...
Do we even need a Senate and House bill to scrap DADT and allow gays to serve openly?  The President is the commander in chief and since this issue doesn't involve funds can't President Obama just issue a directive to change the military policy on this issue without Congress's approval?  Sorry if I'm way off on this, I'm no expert on military policy.
[ Parent ]
That's a really good point
I wonder if Obama could just change it himself.

However, if he can't, from what I've read they are no longer planning a DADT repeal through attaching it as an amendment to another important piece of legislation but rather through it's own piece of legislation.  That's a sign of confidence that it'll pass so I think either way, it's going down.  It'll probably happen in 2010 as it'll take the year for the legislation to move through.

[ Parent ]
People just don't care anymore
Honestly, is there ANY other type of employment in the U.S. where job discrimination against sexual orientation is not just legal, but actually mandatory?  Not to mention discrimination of this sort is just plain counterproductive when we need to keep enlistment at a certain level in order to fight two wars.  It just boggles the mind.
[ Parent ]
that's Republican ideology
one big contradiction where the religious right have to be appeased so that they can keep winning while their policy is largely stupid and counter-productive to both party's ideals.

Gotta love it.  I cant wait to see them get put in their place when I'm shoving my wedding pictures in their faces.

[ Parent ]
See you're part of the problem Andrew!
Those wedding pics could destroy untold thousands of straight marriages.
[ Parent ]
Most of them shouldn't a problem.
The HRC (the crusty old dino they're becoming notwithstanding) ratings for all of them in 07-08 were: 90% (Landrieu, Bill Nelson), 80% (Baucus, Tester) 70% (Lincoln), 65% (Ben Nelson) 60% (Pryor, Conrad, Dorgan).  Byrd is also down there at 60%.
I don't think these rankings have anything to do with DADT specifically, but with 75% of the population behind us, I have trouble seeing even a moderately pro-Gay Rights Senator voting no.
On the off chance that Lincoln ends up facing down Huckabee she might have to vote no, but other than that, it's probably only those rolling around in 60s who we'll have to watch.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
that's not too bad!
I was expecting a bit worse actually from some of these Senators.  Particularly Landrieu.
[ Parent ]
Governor/Senate
I would love to see Ed Rendell run for Senate.  He is the one candidate who could beat Spector.  He is in his early sixties which is still young.
The other thing about Spector that noone dwells on is that he is being treated for a recurrence of his Hodgins disease which at his age does NOT have a very good prognosis.  50/50 at best.  He is a fighter who insists he will survive and run in 2010 but that is still a couple of years away. And it is not a good sign that he had a recurrence is less than five years and that the original diagnosis had a fairly advanced stage...
Casey wanted to be governor before and he may still like the idea - he seems more of a administrative governor type that a Washington Senator type anyway.  He would win for sure.  He is well liked and has no real enemies and his name is gold.
So do I...
But unless Specter retires, Ed won't run. He & Specter are buddies, so I guess he'd rather not run against a personal friends. It's really too bad, as I agree with you that he'd easily become Senator Rendell whether or not Specter is the GOP nominee.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Allyson Schwartz for Senate
She's a solid Democrat who's most often our side on all the major issues, and she's someone I can see beat Specter. Patrick Murphy's OK, and I'd back him over Tweety if necessary. I'd just hate to see Tweety Twit run & become our nominee, as I still don't understand why he wants to run.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
It's been a dream of his since he was younger.
You can't tell me you're going to ignore and keep your dreams bottled up as opportunities to achieve them, polls showing you 1 point away, pass you by.  That'd be a shame.  
[ Parent ]
what evidence is there
that rendell and casey are any bit healed up? why would they be doing eachother any favors? for the sake of the party, fat chance!

Schwarz and Murphy??? Yall ever heard of balancing things geographically in PA?  Two Philly folks aint going to cut in Pittsburgh Erie Scranton, etc

Go southeast!
   Democratic power in the state is shifting to the southeast.  It doesn't help that almost all of the corrupt Democratic state legislators are from western parts of the state.  The southeast has a better bench, and will now be considerably more powerful than the west in Democratic primaries.  Still, I wish Murphy would stay in the House.  He's so young!

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
These
opportunities come up only so often. If he believes he can win he should run.
[ Parent ]
Schwartz for Senate
I still would like to see her run against Arlen in 2010.  If she runs, I am voting for her in the primary.

As for governor, I hope that Dan Onorato does get into the race.

One thing I hope is that President Obama, during his 8 years in office, appoints young justices on the Supreme Court.  We do not need any old men or women.

If our new president appoints people as young as Justice Thomas was when he was appointed, the gains we have made over the years will be locked in for another generation.

There are plenty of anti-abortion Democrats who would be very happy to not have to do anything whatsoever on the issue at all.  Eight years of President Obama will give them exactly that opportunity.

The real gain we are going to make is with stem cell research, which is finally going to be signed into law, after being obstructed by our fake cowboy.

I still remember how someone pointed out that in Dubya's debates against Richards, he talked and sounded intelligent.  His stupid act is something he learned.  Some conservatives have pointed out that Karen Hughes is the one who came up with that act, the idea being that to be more really American, you have to act more really stupid, so that every time he is opening his mouth, he is insulting the average American.

He is still the snotty blue blood, just like his mother, who stated that the people in New Orleans who lost everything in Katrina actually were better off since they did not have anything to begin with, now they were getting federal aid.

January 2009 cannot come to quickly for me.

And no more holy righteous moralizing legislating, either. (for at least 8 years)

Anybody but Matthews!
I might even contribute to Spector if that blowhard runs!

Seriously, the collapse of television news has been driven by the likes of Hannity, O'Reiley, Matthews, & Olberman.  Commentary certainly has its place, but right now none of the 6 24/7 cable news channels I have actually report news during prime time - they all have interview and or commentary shows - even Headline news.  So for us who work and have trouble getting home in time for the 5pm newscasts, we're just out of luck.  I'd rather if they did a 15 minute commentary segment in an hour actual newscast, but cable news has to make money on news, so it's all about ratings and entertainment, rather than information and education.

Schwartz. Murphy, and Corbett
Between the three of them, they got to decide who's going to the Senate, who's becoming Governor, and who stays put.
Umm, Corbett is a Republican.
He'll probably be governor, but I don't think the Democrats will take a pass on running against him on a handshake.  
[ Parent ]
brain fart
I meant Cherry, the Lt. Gov.
[ Parent ]
Scarnati is the Lt. Gov. of PA
Cherry is the Lt. Gov. of Michigan.
[ Parent ]
double brain fart
I'll let the professionals take it from here.
[ Parent ]
Murphy for Senate
He would be a great candidate and a great Senator. As a side question, does anyone know what our bench is like in PA-08? I want him to run regardless, but it is good to think ahead if he pulls the trigger. I agree Casey would be a the best candidate for governor, but if he does not run, I would like to see State Auditor General Jack Wagner run for governor. He might also be a good candidate for Senate if Murphy passes, but I think he would be better as governor and Murphy would be better as a Senator.  
Both parties will be able to come up with B-candidates
Neither side has a good A candidate waiting.  If Murphy does run for Senate (and I believe it's better than 50/50 he does) then it's going to be a party-ID race.  

This is, at least until redistricting, a very swing district, which means a lot of it will come down to how the upticket races.  Best case (for this district) is Toomey-Murphy for Senate and an Onorato/Saidel v Meehan/whomever for Gov.  

[ Parent ]
My Picks:
Schwartz or Hoffel for Governor.

I'd prefer "snarlin' Arlen" get primaried out by Pat Toomey, then it'd be a cakewalk for anyone, Murphy and any other generic Dem.

Revolving door
I agree that Pennsylvania is getting much bluer; nevertheless, since 1954, control of the governor's mansion has switched parties every eight years like clockwork.  I wonder whether this will influence which position potential candidates decide to attempt.
I'll go with...
Auditor Jack Wagner for Governor and either Patrick Murphy or Joe Sestak for Senate. I'm not convinced Schwartz can win statewide.
Sestak has already pulled his name from the running
[ Parent ]
Don't Forget Sestak for Senate
Sestak ( D- PA7 )He has over $3.0 MM in bank (having spent next to nothing for his 2008 re-election). If Arlen gets the nomination, Sestak uses his military background, to run against Specter from the right, looking for votes all over the State. Schwartz may have trouble raising money, as her biggest contributors, are historic backers of Specter.
Not running
He could change his mind a la Sherrod Brown or the Udall in New Mexico (I don't think I'll ever get them right), but both of those were draft efforts IIRC.  We have other possibilities in Pennsylvania.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
anecdotal evidence
Sestak sent me a Christmas card, though I haven't sent him any money since 2006.
I think he's keeping his mailing lists fresh for a reason.

I suspect Schwartz would have more trouble carrying the entire state than Sestak with his glamorous back story. Also, we have a ready-made local candidate for Sestak's Congressional seat, if he runs and wins. Right this minute I'm having trouble recalling his name -he backed out of the Congressional race when Sestak announced for it, and used his energies to retire a Republican incumbent from the state legislature, instead.

Rendell has his constituencies, but he is not loved in rural counties, where many view him as suctioning state revenue out of the whole state to support his pet urban projects. Casey is popular here in the county where I'm living; Rendell is not.

 

Half the population believes our electoral system is broken. The other half believes it is fixed. Wakeuplaughing.com  

[ Parent ]
C'mon
Sestak has NO name identification outside of his disrict and isn't much liked in the Philadelphia media market, plus he's likely to get hit hard on management issues if he runs.  He's a great candidate for that Congressional seat and is settling in nicely.  

Remember, ANYBODY against Specter is a very difficult fight as Specter will hold the Democratic wins in Philadelphia County to 250,000 votes (to win in most years, a D needs about 325,000 vote margin out of Philly).  Our best chance is Specter being unable to run, and if we get that gift, ANY Democrat with a pulse will take out Toomey.

[ Parent ]
PA-Gov, PA-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread | 54 comments

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