Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: Second Wave of Results

Last week we released our first wave of results, for over 100 congressional districts. Today, as promised, here’s our second wave, with the results for another 95 districts.

Despite the huge avalanche of data, we’re still only halfway done. Please take a look at our master database to see what states remain. Even if you don’t have time to tabulate data yourself but if you’ve sniffed out some precinct-level data sources anywhere, please let us know in the database! We need you, to put the “crowd” in “crowdsourcing.” (A permalink to all our results so far is available here.)

District Obama # McCain # Other # 2008 % 2004 % 2000 %
AZ-01 127,790 157,160 3,848 44.3/54.4 46/54 46/51
AZ-02 138,275 220,667 4,279 38.1/60.8 38/61 41/57
AZ-03 121,996 162,724 3,422 42.3/56.5 41/58 43/55
AZ-04 86,815 43,610 1,651 65.7/33.0 62/38 63/35
AZ-05 140,287 153,736 3,362 47.2/51.7 45./54 43/54
AZ-06 135,178 220,718 4,068 37.6/61.3 35/64 37/61
AZ-07 123,202 89,725 2,491 57.2/41.7 57/43 58/38
AZ-08 161,164 181,771 4,141 46.4/52.4 46/53 46/50
FL-01 112,291 232,449 3,638 32.2/66.7 28/72 31/69
FL-02 161,822 196,555 3,715 44.7/54.3 46/54 47/53
FL-03 144,167 52,056 1,213 73.0/26.4 65/35 65/35
FL-04 141,930 231,915 3,541 37.6/61.5 31/69 34/66
FL-05 191,959 249,328 5,029 43.0/55.9 41/58 46/54
FL-06 117,280 184,864 3,089 38.4/60.6 39/61 42/58
FL-07 116,797 158,437 2,868 42.0/57.0 43/57 46/54
FL-08 187,295 167,127 2,714 52.4/46.8 45/55 46/54
FL-09 169,897 190,344 4,596 46.6/52.2 43/57 46/54
FL-10 164,148 150,962 4,895 51.3/47.1 49/51 51/49
FL-11 174,314 88,357 2,642 65.7/33.3 58/41 61/39
FL-12 115,180 123,958 2,424 47.7/51.3 42/58 45/55
FL-13 175,991 196,908 3,732 46.7/52.3 44/56 46/55
FL-14 167,015 224,405 3,084 42.3/56.9 38/62 39/61
FL-15 137,627 152,415 3,352 46.9/52.0 43/57 46/54
FL-16 174,255 191,423 3,821 47.2/51.8 46/54 47/53
FL-17 209,839 29,758 899 87.3/12.4 83/17 85/15
FL-18 128,124 122,428 1,774 50.8/48.5 46/54 43/57
FL-19 223,009 115,655 2,249 65.4/33.9 66/34 73/27
FL-20 186,912 106,344 2,240 63.3/36.0 64/36 69/31
FL-21 122,024 127,402 1,232 48.7/50.8 43/57 42/58
FL-22 175,731 162,012 2,638 51.6/47.6 52/48 52/48
FL-23 194,022 39,159 1,141 82.8/16.7 76/24 80/20
FL-24 116,527 127,386 2,562 47.3/51.7 45/55 47/53
FL-25 126,010 128,349 1,359 49.3/50.2 44/56 45/55
HI-01 152,320 60,979 4,129 70.1/28.1 53/47 55/39
HI-02 172,881 59,450 5,278 72.8/25.0 56/44 56/36
IL-01 248,990 37,176 1,587 86.5/12.9 83/17 84/16
IL-02 260,869 28,676 1,347 89.7/9.9 84/16 83/17
IL-03 154,999 85,502 3,203 63.6/35.1 59/41 58/40
IL-04 119,227 18,453 1,866 85.4/13.2 79/21 79/20
IL-05 178,170 62,906 3,383 72.9/25.7 67/33 66/34
IL-06 156,903 119,998 3,737 55.9/42.8 47/53 44/53
IL-07 255,470 33,662 1,935 87.8/11.6 83/17 83/16
IL-08 140,593 104,544 3,161 56.6/42.1 44/56 42/56
IL-09 188,822 68,989 3,202 72.3/26.4 68/32 67/31
IL-10 178,561 111,755 2,801 60.9/38.1 53/47 51/47
IL-11 163,664 137,334 4,640 53.6/44.9 46/53 48/50
IL-12 140,346 114,112 4,086 54.3/44.1 52/48 54/43
IL-13 188,155 154,788 4,148 54.2/44.6 45/55 42/55
IL-14 145,613 118,327 3,559 54.4/44.2 44/55 43/54
IL-15 123,074 124,717 4,472 48.8/49.4 41/59 43/54
IL-16 114,337 96,108 3,622 53.4/44.9 44/55 43/54
IL-17 113,913 79,311 2,918 58.1/40.4 51/48 54/44
IL-18 139,085 136,394 4,690 49.6/48.7 42/58 44/54
IL-19 69,939 93,635 2,941 42.0/56.2 39/61 41/56
MD-01 142,667 208,743 6,839 39.8/58.3 36/62 40/57
MD-02 164,089 106,088 5,263 59.6/38.5 54/45 57/41
MD-03 176,572 118,975 5,997 58.6/39.5 54/45 55/41
MD-04 240,715 40,002 2,200 85.1/14.1 78/21 77/21
MD-05 219,437 114,607 4,287 64.9/33.9 57/42 57/41
MD-06 138,091 198,238 7,426 40.2/57.7 34/65 36/61
MD-07 214,542 54,354 3,578 78.7/20.0 73/26 73/25
MD-08 201,510 69,062 3,922 73.4/25.2 69/30 66/31
NE-01 121,411 148,179 4,303 44.3/54.1 36/63 36/59
NE-02 138,809 135,439 3,561 50.0/48.8 38/60 39/57
NE-03 73,099 169,361 4,282 29.6/68.6 24/75 25/71
NV-01 158,418 85,226 5,139 63.7/34.3 57/42 56/41
NV-02 167,812 167,900 8,417 48.8/48.8 41/57 37/57
NV-03 207,418 159,574 7,716 55.4/42.6 49/50 49/48
NC-01 177,941 105,738 1,288 62.4/37.1 57/42 57/42
NC-02 155,681 141,840 2,397 51.9/47.3 46/54 46/53
NC-03 117,178 190,093 2,456 37.8/61.4 32/68 35/64
NC-04 275,205 159,427 4,305 62.7/36.3 55/44 53/46
NC-05 126,556 203,076 4,208 37.9/60.8 33/66 33/66
NC-06 122,291 212,011 3,525 36.2/62.8 30/69 32/67
NC-07 150,071 167,888 2,747 46.8/52.4 44/56 48/52
NC-08 152,261 135,234 2,222 52.6/46.7 45/54 46/54
NC-09 174,410 212,250 3,043 44.8/54.5 36/63 36/63
NC-10 108,496 191,580 3,501 35.7/63.1 33/67 34/65
NC-11 159,772 179,061 4,746 46.5/52.1 43/57 40/58
NC-12 218,599 89,790 2,033 70.4/28.9 63/37 57/42
NC-13 204,190 140,486 3,193 58.7/40.4 52/47 49/50
SC-01 118,356 174,458 3,810 39.9/58.8 39/61 38/59
SC-02 135,452 175,052 3,284 43.2/55.8 39/60 39/58
SC-03 95,124 178,089 3,644 34.4/64.3 34/66 35/63
SC-04 118,453 188,854 5,229 37.9/60.4 34/65 33/64
SC-05 135,564 160,944 3,497 45.2/53.7 42/57 43/55
SC-06 139,438 83,696 2,278 61.9/37.1 61/39 58/40
WA-01 226,526 130,343 5,911 62.4/35.9 56/42 53/42
WA-02 202,480 151,992 7,415 56.0/42.0 51/47 48/46
WA-03 183,306 159,803 6,898 52.4/45.7 48/50 46/48
WA-04 111,423 159,904 5,127 40.3/57.8 35/63 34/62
WA-05 152,921 171,426 8,283 46.0/51.5 41/57 40/56
WA-06 182,446 128,681 6,545 57.4/40.5 53/45 52/43
WA-07 308,226 55,200 5,536 83.5/15.0 79/19 72/21
WA-08 210,998 155,900 5,779 56.6/41.8 51/48 49/47
WA-09 172,318 115,837 5,298 58.7/39.5 53/46 53/43

This round was even more fun than the previous batch, because it involves a number of states where the turnaround was huge (either because of the favorite son effect, as in Illinois, or because the Obama campaign actually decided to compete there for once, like Nevada and North Carolina). Want to see some truly staggering progress? Check out IL-08, once the core of Chicago’s deep red suburbs (and home to Rep. Phil Crane), and even the site of a 56-44 edge for Bush in 2004. This year? Obama won 57-42.

As we get into the more complicated states here (the last wave picked all the lowest hanging fruit), there are some caveats to be mindful of, which may affect the data reliability a small amount. In Florida, for instance, we’re missing precinct-level data for one county, which affects two districts (the 3rd and 6th); unfortunately, it’s a pretty big county (Alachua, home of Gainesville and Univ. of Florida). In Illinois, all districts are affected by the curse of split precincts, which don’t seem to make much of a big difference, while some of the downstate districts are affected by some missing precinct-level data from some smaller counties; because of their small size, it doesn’t seem to affect the district’s overall percentages much, though.

In North Carolina, our spreadsheet whiz there broke the totals down into ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ totals, with ‘hard’ reflecting only known numbers and ‘soft’ allocating early votes and absentees proportionately (which apparently just sit in an indistinguished lump in NC). I chose to proceed using the ‘soft’ totals, which are much larger, but a stickler might choose to focus on ‘hard’ totals instead. South Carolina also has a high number of ‘indivisibles’ in its spreadsheet, which appear to be a lot of split precincts. The high number of indivisibles appears to exert some pressure on some of the percentages in South Carolina, perhaps in SC-01, where there appears to be little leftward movement since 2004.

So, take the numbers with a grain of salt, and certainly don’t expect these numbers to be a 100% match for Polidata’s numbers, forthcoming this spring. And of course, please contribute to this project however you see fit!

72 thoughts on “Crowdsourcing Pres-by-CD: Second Wave of Results”

  1. I was really hoping for better from my district.  Especially considering Kosmas’s 16 point landslide defeat of Feeney.  Looks like the PVI here will actually become a bit more republican.

  2. (and AZ, FL, MD, NC, and SC), just a few more caveats: there are some significant counties missing from the downstate districts – such as Madison (Metro-East, Alton) from districts 12 and 19, DeKalb (DeKalb, NIU) from districts 14 and 16.

    McHenry County (McHenry, Crystal Lake, Algonquin, Cary) is also missing, and it’s decently large (260K population as of 2007), which will affect IL-08 and IL-16.

    In Florida, the early vote is also missing from Brevard, Jefferson, Seminole, and Volusia counties. Given Obama’s strength in the early vote (remember that he lost the Election Day vote), that will affect several districts: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 15th. Tom Feeney (and soon to been Suzanne Kosmas)’s 24th district will be affected the most, since it takes in parts of Brevard, Seminole, and Volusia. ‘Soft’ totals will be forthcoming shortly….

  3. I love my “other home state”! Obama came SO CLOSE to winning NV-02 (Heller’s seat), and he just ran away with both NV-01 (Berkley) & NV-03 (was Porter-R, now Titus-D). This is awesome! Nevada’s now blue, and I’ll work my ass off to make sure Nevada only grows bluer in the next few cycles to come. 😀

  5. Obama won WA-08 57/42 as Burner lost it by 4%. Honestly I find that really disappointing and I wonder if Reichert has essentially become entrenched at this point.

  6. It looks like most of the Florida districts didn’t see a huge swing percentage wise towards Dems this election.  The Obama win in Florida seems to have more to do with far higher turnout in minority and other liberal districts than we saw in 2000 and 2004.

  8. It looks like if Obama had won Mineral County, he would have won all 3 NV Congressional districts. I’m really impressed by that.

  9. Look at how far Frank Kratovil outran Obama in MD-01. Andy Harris had the wind at his back, so he must have really pissed off the eastern shore.

  12. Obama maxes out in the cities, approaching 90% in some districts.  There simply aren’t any Republican districts even remotely as lopsided at that, not even close.  Also stunning improvements in suburban and exurban areas, while mostly holding even or falling behind in rural, primarily white Southern areas.

    Once again I’m reminded of the fantastic job Republicans did gerrymandering in 2002, look at all those R+10 districts and all those D+30 or so districts.  Fortunately for us, a lot of those districts Bush won by 10% have since moved our way, leaving a lot of Republicans high and dry.  There are numerous targets in Florida and Illinois just waiting to be challenged.  Also, Reichert as we know is vulnerable to the right challenger in Washington, but so is Cathy McCormick, the Spokane area is also shifting our way.

  13. IN CASE ANYONE CARES — THE FINAL RESULTS

    I found this Congressional district by district chart extremely interesting.

    For the past two days, I’ve been looking for the final, official popular vote total because Dec. 15 was the day that all 50 states turned in their official tallies — and officially cast their Electoral College votes.

    I couldn’t find a news story summarizing the official tallies, but I found it on Wikipedia.

    Obama got 69,460,098 votes or 52.93 percent; McCain 59,930,180 or 45.67 percent.  This is a spread of 9,529,918 votes or 7.26 percent.

    I found this final tally interesting since on Nov. 5 Obama’s margin was approximately 6 percent and 7.25 million (63.1 million to 55.85 million).

    There was very little attention paid to the significantly increasing margin over the past several weeks.

    It also indicates that the USA still needs to dramatically revamp its vote-counting procedures with more than 10 million counted late.  It shouldn’t take six weeks to count absentee votes.

    Shalom,

    ZWrite

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