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IA-Sen: Grassley Vulnerable to Vilsack Challenge

by: James L.

Thu Dec 11, 2008 at 4:51 PM EST


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/8-10, likely voters):

Tom Vilsack (D): 44
Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±4%)

The Great Orange Satan continues to test the temperature of 2010's Senate races, and it gives us a pretty surprising result out of Iowa: Chuck Grassley, the longtime and popular GOP Senator, is surprisingly vulnerable to a challenge from ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack.

In the diaries recently, desmoinesdem nicely laid out the contours of this race, and identified the basic conundrum facing Democrats here:

And that brings me to the paradox in the title of this post. Clearly Grassley's retirement would give Democrats the best chance (some might say only chance) to win this seat. However, Grassley is more likely to retire if Tom Vilsack or another major-league Democrat jumps in now, instead of waiting a year or longer to see whether the incumbent will decide to step down for some other reason.

Challenging Grassley means embarking on long and exhausting uphill battle. But putting Grassley on notice soon that Democrats will not give him a pass is one of the few things we could do to improve the odds that he will retire.

Polls like this one may give the 'Sack some encouragement to actually pull the trigger -- and possibly precipitate a retirement from Grassley, who will be 77 years old on election day.
James L. :: IA-Sen: Grassley Vulnerable to Vilsack Challenge
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IA-Sen: Grassley Vulnerable to Vilsack Challenge | 57 comments
The most telling thing here
Approval ratings:
Vilsack: 55/36
Grassley: 57/36

This would be awesome.  

Vilsack and Grassley
Seem equally popular, so it would be a good race if it comes about.
[ Parent ]
if I were running the DSCC
I would immediately commission an internal poll to check these numbers.

I've seen approval ratings for Grassley in the 60s before. I would like to know if R2K is an outlier or if his standing has fallen relatively recently.

[ Parent ]
I'm just not seeing Vilsack taking a shot at Grassley
This poll might encourage Vilsack to consider it, but I don't see him challenging Grassley.  Thankfully there's a good chance Grassley retires.
Yup

[ Parent ]
So why not run and push him over the edge?
I can't imagine if he is considering retirement he wants a competitive race which it would be with Vilsack even if Grassley would still be favored.  
[ Parent ]
Sounds a lot like the Delaware race a few years back
This sounds very similar to when now Senator Carper challenged Bill Roth a few years back -- a multi-term sitting Senator challenged by a popular governor in a blue leaning but fairly centrist state.  Both were well known and well liked figures, and Carper basically made the argument "Who do you want as your FUTURE Senator?"  Like Grassley, Roth was conservative but not of the nutjob variety.  Unlike Grassley, he had some health problems (and died a couple of years later).
Yup
Problem is that for every Carper there seem to be three Tom Allens. Running against an entrenched incumbent is a hard decision to make.
[ Parent ]
D'Amato, Roth, Gorton, Robb, Daschle, DeWine, Burns, Santorum, Stevens, Smith
All multiple term incumbents to lose in the last decade. So it is possible if people are willing to take the plunge.
[ Parent ]
Most of those were unpopular
Daschle, DeWine, Burns, Santorum, Stevens and Smith all had approvals under 50%, most well below.  Not sure about the others on your list, but I'd imagine people like D'Amato were unpopular as well by the time they lost their races.  

Grassley on the other hand almost always has solid approvals in the high 50's to mid 60's.

[ Parent ]
By election day yes
Not so much two years before. But I'm coming more from the position of Vilsack jumping in to get Grassley to jump out.
[ Parent ]
D'Amato was popular
until the Monica Lewinsky mess and after his semi anti-semetic comments.

and Schumer was a A-list get that year. Ferraro tried to ruin him, but he came out on top.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Ferraro trying to ruin a Democratic candidate?
You don't say!
[ Parent ]
really though
not a good comparison. Roth was not in good health and most voters knew this. He was past his prime, way way past. Most people didn't think he would live through his term and he was unable to campaign much, (he died a year later in 2001). Carper was a wildly popular Governor and for U.S. Representative and Roth had never been that popular.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Acidulous pejorative or lampooning sobriquet?
Would somebody mind clarifying the moniker "Great Orange Satan" for me?  Thanks :)
It's shorthand for Daily Kos
I believe it's a reference to Bill O'Reilly and his campaign to convince America that Markos Moulitsas is the greatest threat to Democracy since Adolf Hitler.
[ Parent ]
Now that I think about it, it's definitely not shorthand.
I need to think before I post.
[ Parent ]
Haha
Gotcha.  I realized it was Kos, but wasn't sure if this was toungue-in-cheek (i.e. we love Kos and mock conservatives) or sincere (i.e. we're mad at Kos for some reason unbeknownst to me).  Thanks!
[ Parent ]
The orange
makes it less threatening.
[ Parent ]
Draft Vilsack
Perfect opportunity for him. Run Tom! Run!
Poll should end the nonsense
Vilsack is not just competitive, but he is virtually tied.  This race is winnable, and all the cowardly, defeatist 20th century Democrats should either wake up and smell the coffee or be quiet.

Iowa is a blue state, with a popular former Governor.  If he runs and presents the Democratic agenda for two years in contrast to the Republican one, not only should he be competitive, he SHOULD win.  If Visack were to run (and not make a major blunder) his chances of winning are 60%+.

After Specter, this is the #2 priority race in the country, should Vilsack have the "sack" to run.  A seat like Burr may be easier, but this is the second most Democratic seat being held by a republican, and thus the whining defeatists need to be woken up or shooed away.

If Vilsack is not in the cabinet by January 1, Draft Tom Vilsack should be the netroot resolution/priority of the year.

Sounds like
You don't understand the first thing about the power of incumbency in the Senate, or the politics of the state of Iowa for that matter.
60+ percent chance to win? Are you kidding me? Or are you just ignorant? I'm interested to know how that number was calculated. This year's elections showed Iowans aren't prepared to completely turn over the state to the Democrats at this time. We thought we had a chance to win Iowa's fourth CD this year, but Tom Latham embarassed Becky Greenwald. We thought we could keep the fifth district close as well. Not so much.
Despite the numbers of this one poll Chuck Grassley remains in solid position for re-election. He's been the senior senator of the state for decades and has developed a lot of goodwill among the people. Whether or not Vilsack jumps in, Grassley starts out as the strong favorite and will retain that status until Vilsack can figure out a reason Iowans should remove him. Pretty tough task, no? It's not defeatist. Its' realistic my friend.
[ Parent ]
Cry cry cry
You are a defeatist. You promote that old loser idea, and frankly don't understand how politics work.

Latham losing the 4th?  Oh please.  That was worse than Pollyannaism.

Pay attention now, this lesson has been repeated several times in the past two cycles years...

For Democrats to unseat a popular, moderate republican, they need to run a PEER, some kind of popular, moderate Democrat that has a track record.  A left moderate will replace a right moderate in a blue state when both are about equally respected.  

Grassley will stomp a generic liberal state senator, but given two years, a popular ex-Governor with similar approval ratings and policy views more in line with a blue state is likely to win in 2010.  

And, far more important, he MIGHT win.  So he should win, and help the downticket candidates by putting up a solid opposition.  In other words, you have no chance of beating Latham if Vilsack does not run against Grassley.

[ Parent ]
"so he should RUN" is what I meant

[ Parent ]
A couple things you need to think about...
First, Vilsack probably isn't very interested.  He was a governor.  Most governors (such as Easely, Henry, Brederson, etc.) turn around and end their political careers rather than join the US Senate.  

Just because Grassley is a Republican in a blue state doesn't mean he can't get crossover appeal.  I doubt Vilsack is "favored" by any means, although if the DSCC and NRSC play similar roles as they did in 2008 that could change.  But Grassley would probably retire before losing a race.  So part of getting Vilsack in the race is to force Grassley out.  Then Vilsack becomes extremely favored.  

[ Parent ]
Johanns ran like a rabbit for the Senate
Vilsack is what, 58?  This man wanted to be President a little over a year ago, and now he wants to be a forgotten small city attorney?

The Governors you mentioned never flirted with the Presidency.  Huge difference.

"So part of getting Vilsack in the race is to force Grassley out.  Then Vilsack becomes extremely favored."

That is a big part of the equation, as is the certainty the DSCC will be in relative great shape again in 2010 as it is all about offense in 2010 for Dems and total defense for Reps.

[ Parent ]
I actually know something
About Congressional races in general and the state my friend. Unlike Elizabeth Dole who visited NC twice a year Chuck Grassley has visited all of Iowa's 99 counties every year since he's been elected. That's pretty impressive whether you like him or not. At the very least is shows he cares about the people. The people of Iowa love him.
If Vilsack jumped in the race, Grassley's stature in the Senate would enable him to raise money on par with Mitch McConnell.
Most political observers don't see the first polling done on the race and then assume it's ours to lose.
The second seat most likely to flip?
There are about 10 seats we will win before Tom Vilsack would ever defeat Chuck Grassley.
Most of them are in red states.
Grassley is about as beatable as Susan Collins was last cycle. Guess we're just going to have to wait and find out.
I think Vilsack knows what he's doing a little better than you do.
[ Parent ]
I didn't say second most likely to flip
That's ridiculous.

I said it is the second most important one to go after.

Again, you need to look at recent history, and how politica have evolved, not keep your head in the 20th.

Allen was NOT Collins peer.  Only the Governor is a peer at the Senate level... except instates like Montana where the House Rep is a peer of a Senator.

And why do you just ignore the poll in front of your nose instead of crying in defeatism.  Vilsack's approval numbers are on par with Grassleys.  Right there, face it.

Seriously, wake up.  The country has changed.  Poltics has changed.  Moderates don't lose to non-peers very often.  Peers of the prefered ideology defeat peers of the non-prefered ideology.

Loesbeck loses to Grassley; Vilsack defeats Grassley... assuming everyone runs a solid campaign.  It's not a sure thing, but this is the ideology and temperement (and age) the voters WANT.

[ Parent ]
A couple of things...
This year's elections showed Iowans aren't prepared to completely turn over the state to the Democrats at this time

What state does?  Massachussets and New Mexico are the only 100% blue states.  The point is Iowa has taken a solid shift since pre-2006.  I disagree with the 60% number Paine used, but still.  I think you're giving Grassley too much credit.  The only reason Grassley is so popular is because he doesn't act like a nutjob and people give him his re-election instead of seriously challenging him.  

Also, expecting Greenwald to win and keep King close in Iowa was for the extremely optimistic.  It wasn't on my radar for a reason.  Just because the Democrats lost those two races aren't indicators of the state at large.  

[ Parent ]
Hawaii, Rhode Island, West Virginia and North Dakota too
and technically Connecticut  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Umm, try again. I said 100%
Hawaii = Republican Governor
Rhode Island = Republican Governor
West Virginia = Republican Congresswoman
North Dakota = Republican Governor
Connecticut = Republican Governor
[ Parent ]
Grassley's more popular
than the two representatives who won re-election last month. The House isn't the Senate. The bluer-trending nature of the state would help Vilsack more than in years past. But, it's hardly enough to help him win. Vilsack isn't any more popular than Grassley and the numbers assigned to him in that poll aren't even close to good enough for him to beat Grassley. I want Vilsack in the race as much as anyone. But, the only way he wins is if Grassley retires. Plain and simple. You don't beat popular, entrenched incumbents in the Senate with little working in your favor. Again, I haven't seen anyone give a good enough reason why Iowans would vote him out. Anybody have one?
[ Parent ]
ummm, he's too conservative
the state as a whole leans Democratic, Vilsack is the first viable option people who don't wnat to vote for him have had in decades, etc. That enough.

But, a five point deficit two years out and you're already writing the race off? You realize Democrats were way behind Conrad Burns at this point in 2004. Oregon looked very tough two years ago. North Carolina didn't look pretty either. Five points is exactly where you need to be. Now let Vilsack make his case and see if Grassley's not VERY rusty since he hasn't run a campaign since 1980.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
I give up
I'll trust you guys know more about this race than me. I'm predicting if it's Grassley vs. Vilsack that Grassley carries the fifth, fourth, third, and first congressional districts in that order. He'll have a strong showing in the second as well.
If it's anyone other than Vilsack it's a clean sweep of the five. I hope I'm wrong.
[ Parent ]
I think it is absurdly premature to call the race one way or the other this early
In that respect, you're wrong for writing Vilsack off and Paine is wrong for writing Grassley off in my book.  
[ Parent ]
I didn't write Grassley off
Don't be absurd.

This would probably be the marquee race of 2010 (not counting Caroline Kennedy versus Giuliani).

It would be a hard fought race, and assuming good campaigns by both I think Vilsack would win.  That's what I said.  No need to make silly statements about it.

And, the sooner the Vilsack declares, the more the odds are in his favor.  the more he might delay, the more Grassley would benefit.

[ Parent ]
but Grassley
wouldn't win the first. The first and second would go for Vilsack, the fifth and fourth would go for Grassley, and the third would decide the election own way or another.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Not writing him off?
Loesbeck loses to Grassley; Vilsack defeats Grassley...

Ultimatum statements like that are writing a candidate off.

[ Parent ]
Really?
"We thought we had a chance to win Iowa's fourth CD this year, but Tom Latham embarassed Becky Greenwald. We thought we could keep the fifth district close as well. Not so much."

we did?  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
exactly
I thought Greenwald might be able to keep it closer than we had in the past but I had on such delusion that I expected her to win or even to come close.  

As for Hubler, the guy had no shot what-so-ever.  The only surprise here is that he didn't get beat by more.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
With the blue-trending nature
of the state why wouldn't we, right? If Iowans didn't vote them out, please tell me why they'd vote out a more popular senator. Any ideas?
[ Parent ]
You are off the deep end
First, some people like Republicans.  Second, some Republicans are not wingnuts.

Latham is a fine Congressman who represents his district well.  Just like Grassley, he's only vulnerable to a very strong challenge.

Grassley could be given a strong challenge by only two or possibly three people, but they could defeat him, and if Vilsack is best positioned to do that.  Some might think 60% is high, but it make no sense at all to think it is less than 50% to think that a politician with the favored positions on issues with about the same favorability ratings would lose to a 77 year old with less popular views on the issues.

And again, it's simply lunacy to think that this would not be a competitive race... if Grassley stayed in if Vilsack announced this spring.

[ Parent ]
It's clear you know Iowa well
I guess above you were referring to Rep. Loebsack, no? You clearly have no comprehension of the dynamics of the Senate. None. I'm interested to learn who these two, possibly three people are who can defeat Grassley. And by competitive do you mean that Vilsack will get, what...more than 42 percent of the vote? No one has given one good reason why Iowans would vote Grassley out. Not one, including you. There's good reason for that. There isn't one. Please tell me which congressional districts Vilsack would win and how much percent of the vote I should expect him to get in two years.
By the way, that site that commissioned that poll also had Greenwald within a few points of Latham a few days before the election. So, should I also expect Grassley to win by the same amount?
I'll catch up with you tomorrow my friend. Study Iowa some more.  
[ Parent ]
Why are you in denial
I stated the reason he'd be voted out several times but you are such a defeatist you pretend it doesn't exist... Vilsack is more in tune with the political desires of the people of the state.

Hello?  You there?  Hellooooo?

That's what happens when voters face the choice of two candidates they like.  They pick the better of two good choices.  

Perhaps you should learn to respect the people of Iowa more.

And I go back as far as Dick Clark, so you can save your condescending for your defeatist friends.

[ Parent ]
You're going to tell
me about the voting habits of the people of a state I lived in for 10 years? If you won't listen to me then perhaps you'll listen to our friend desmoinesdem who currently lives in the states and covers the political races extensively. When voters face choosing between two candidates they like they don't always vote for the one who fits the mold of the state, especially in the Senate.
If this year's Senate race in Maine isn't sufficient, then perhaps the one in Connecticut two years ago with Lieberman will suffice. When you build up the kind of goodwill people like Lieberman and Grassley have over the years they're almost impossible to beat regardless of who their opponent is.
Essentially you're saying a popular, moderate longtime Senate incumbent with a 30+ net approval rating will not only see a close race, but will most likely be defeated were Vilsack to get in the race.
I hope you're right and I'm wrong.
But I played the game of thinking every race on the Senate map is winnable this year. I'm not playing it again.
I've said everything that can be said about this race. I'm not saying anything else.
[ Parent ]
Are you kidding me?
For starters, Greenwald was outspent by 1 million dollars in a swing district while Hubler was outspent by 700,000 dollars in a conservative district.  You don't win districts solely on the makeup of the district.  The strength of the candidate, and the political atmosphere also play significant roles.  To think either of these candidates should have won is an absurd notion.  Period.  
[ Parent ]
I agree
Vilsack will be outspent by considerably more than those two candidates were. And to think that he'll oust a moderate republican in a moderate state is absurd.
[ Parent ]
Grassley is not a moderate Republican
He breaks with the GOP very rarely, on selected issues. His Progressive Punch ratings put him solidly in conservative territory, far to the right of the real Republican moderates:

http://www.bleedingheartland.c...

[ Parent ]
let them outspend Vilsack in Iowa
that represents millions of dollars that can't be deployed in other key states.

I see no downside to Vilsack taking a shot at this race, even if it is a longshot.

[ Parent ]
Top Tier Democratic candidates raised about 6-8 million dollars
In cases of Kay Hagan and Merkley, they waited till after the primary to flourish.  They fundraised on the low-end.  Candidates who ran unopposed like Udall and Shaheen raised closer to the high end of that IIRC.  It is safe to say Vilsack could and would raise close to 8 million dollars if he got in by the end of summer of 2009.  Grassley raised just under 8 million dollars in his 2004 race when he went unopposed.  It is reasonable to assume Grassley could make that 14-16 million if he were pushed.  (That is a far step down from McConnell, by the way.)

The thing about money is that it has diminishing returns.  A candidate who is outspent 2,000,000 to nothing is much worse off than a candidate who is outspent 4,000,000 to 2,000,000.  Hubler and Greenwald didn't reach a point of viability financially, Vilsack would.  

[ Parent ]
this race would be a longshot
if Grassley decides to stand and fight, let's be clear about that. He does have genuine crossover appeal in Iowa. But right now Vilsack is an attorney in private practice. What does he have to lose by starting to raise money and test the waters for a Senate run? I think he can nudge Grassley to retire.
This man wanted to be President
Visack's ONLY path to the Presidency is to run against Grassley... or pray for him to die between 2010 and 2012.  I'd hope he'd take the less morbid path.

passing this race is the road to irrelevancy because 2016 would belong to Culver or someone else.

[ Parent ]
And just to play out the power lust fantasy...
Vilsack announces

Grassley announces retirement

Latham announces for Senate

Club for Growth persaudes King to run in primary because Latham is too darn liberal

Vilsack defeats Latham

Standard Dem picks up Latham's seat

Gene Taylor-like Dem wins King's seat by 12 votes

Go Iowa blue

[ Parent ]
Nice scenario
I especially like the Gene Taylor reference. He happens to be my favorite conservative Dem as only he cold hold the most conservative district in Mississippi.

I have a feeling Grassley will fight this one out. He is for all practical purposes the face of the Iowa Republican party right now. Even if he thinks about retiring I'm sure the NRSC will do its best to stop him. I mean we've had our fair share of senators consider retiring, Barbara Boxer and Jeff Bingaman were initially not going to run for reelection, thankfully the DSCC convinced them not to.

this race will be tossup at best with Vilsack running. Grassley has yet to faulter with the voters,
The real question is when was the last time Grassley had a tough campaign?

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
there is no Gene Taylor-like Dem
with enough stature in IA-05, unfortunately.

Grassley's last tough campaign was in 1980. But he has built up a lot of goodwill in those 30 years, which would make him the clear favorite if he runs for re-election against Vilsack.

[ Parent ]
I don't know how Gene
Taylor stays in congress. I mean this district was Republican back in the 60s and 70s, when it was only held Dem by a very old, very conservative old school new deal Democrat. In 1972 Trent Lott won it with the endorsement of that Democrat. When abandoned it in 1988 to run for senate it was a big race, and Gene Taylor actually lost to a popular Biloxi sheriff. That popular local figure died in a plane crash a year later and Republicans didn't have someone of his stature to run against Taylor in the special election. Still Taylor just barely won, and somehow held on in 1994 by one percent and managed to win again in 1996. During the time period his voting record flattened out.After 1994 in the two preceding congress's he voted with a Democratic majority against a majority of Republicans just 34% of the time. His numbers have gradually gone up though, and now I think he's in the 60s again. Also, happily for him, the district he holds is now the most Republican one held by a Democrat again, a distinction that Chet Edwards briefly took away from him. But with Obama making significant improvements in Chet Edwards' district, as well as Matheson and Minnick's, while making none in Taylors, (if not losing ground), Taylor is once again on top.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Vilsack vs. Grassley matchup
reminds me of the 1984 NC Senate race vs. Jim Hunt and Jesse Helms.  Jim Hunt was a fairly popular Governor and Jesse Helms was a fairly popular Senator.  Hunt was 16 years younger than Helms, and Hunt had been a Governor for 8 years (Helms, at the time, had been Senator for 12).  Jim Hunt lost to Jesse Helms on election day.

That being said, 1984 was 24 years ago, this race was in NC and not Iowa, and Grassley is a much more ethical person than Helms, so you won't see as many dirty tricks performed if Vilsack entered the race.

If I was Grassley, I'd really consider whether I'd want to serve in the Senate another 6 years in the minority party.  Also, I can't imagine Grassley would want to leave the Senate except on his own terms.  Maybe this 4 point lead will make Grassley consider "hanging it up".

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

IA-Sen: Grassley Vulnerable to Vilsack Challenge | 57 comments

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