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PA-Gov: Gerlach Ponders Statewide Run

by: James L.

Thu Dec 11, 2008 at 12:37 PM EST


From Roll Call:

Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) is considering a bid for governor, his office confirmed Wednesday night. In a statement released to the media following questions about his plans for 2010, Gerlach said he was carefully considering a statewide bid.

"I plan to make a decision in the coming weeks," Gerlach said. "It is quite possible there may be five or six Republican candidates for Governor running by the time the dust settles. An enthusiastic primary for Governor gives all of us who consider ourselves leaders in the Republican Party an opportunity to prove that we have the ability and new ideas that can best lead the Commonwealth."

This development is excellent news for Democrats who hope to pick up Gerlach's Democratic-trending suburban Philly seat. Indeed, Gerlach may already be seeing the writing on the wall: after winning re-election with only 52% of the vote against a candidate that he routinely dismissed as not credible and unqualified, he may be in search of an exit strategy before his district's changing demographics (and looming redistricting) come back to haunt him. And that's not to mention what a depressing job it must be to be a foot soldier in the Boehner caucus of 2009.

If this seat comes open, it'll definitely lean Democratic.
James L. :: PA-Gov: Gerlach Ponders Statewide Run
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PA-Gov: Gerlach Ponders Statewide Run | 49 comments
If we can hold the Governor's mansion, then I say go for it, Jim.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
That is the question
Sure, Dems pick his House seat up but would he be a formidable candidate statewide? I suspect he would.
[ Parent ]
He's much weaker than either prosecutor
The likely Republicans are Attorney General Tom Corbett or recently resigned US Attorney for ED PA Pat Meehan.  Either one is stronger than Gerlach, which makes a Gerlach run a VERY attractive option.
[ Parent ]
Wandering in the Wilderness
I suspect Gerlach would be pretty weak, caught between two demographics and only grabbing one shrinking one.  He won't play in Philly proper or in its more Democratic suburbs and he isn't conservative enough for Western and Central Pennsylvania Republicans.  He's the true red-leaning suburbanite Philadelphia politician, and, though I'm not greatly familiar with the state, it seeems like his base is pretty narrow.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Regardless of their political philosohy,
Who are the strong contenders on the Dem side for the Governor's race in 2010?

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
Allyson Schwarz and Patrick Murphy
If they can decide between them who runs for Senate and who runs for Governor. I think Murphy is better suited to the Senate but what do I know.
[ Parent ]
Anyone other Dem from Pittsburgh, Erie or Scranton area? n/t


Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
[ Parent ]
Some here
[ Parent ]
Dan Onorato
Chief Executive of Alleghney County (Pittsburgh)
Jack Wagner, state auditor from Pittsburgh
Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Onorato would be a very compelling candidate
My crazy right-wing grandmother and lefty socialist grandfather both love him, if that says anything about his appeal.  
[ Parent ]
Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Stavedahl
he's like 31 years old.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
It's Ravenstahl
AND NO!!! The "boy wonder" has had a couple of scandals already, and at only 29, he's more of a Dennis Kucinich in Pittsburgh than a Bobby Jindal in Louisiana (I'm talking perceived competency, positions set aside).

We'd be saying hello to Gov. Gerlach.  

[ Parent ]
aw come on, isn't he popular
in southwestern Pennsylvania. I think he'd make a good candidate to put on the ticket as Lieutenant Governor. Gives a solid political base for Democrats, and tkaes away the Republicans one last formula for winning statewide: winning everything outside of Philly except Allegehny and Lackawanna. Plus, LG is a good spot for him because it'd give him a little more time to mature, and cook so to speak, as a politician. Then he could run as a more familiar candidate and run as an experience candidate at the ripe age of...39! Then maybe at 47 or 49 he could run for senate and be in the senate for thirty years or so.


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
That's not a bad idea
But mayor of Pittsburgh is his for awhile. (he's popular enough and he's consolidated the union vote and the major party machine into grudgingly supporting him).

I'm not even sure the last time a Pittsburgh mayor made a jump to the Governor's race, let alone win the thing. It's gotta be back before Sophie Masloff in the late 70s, early 80s.  

[ Parent ]
Pete Flaherty
Mayor of Pittsburgh from 1970-77 according to Wikipedia.  Pete was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 1978 and lost to Republican Dick Thornburg.

Very colorful guy and apparently an effective mayor.  He also ran twice for the Senate and lost both times as the Democratic nominee.

Sounds like he was immediately before Sophie Maslow from your description.

[ Parent ]
Yup, sounds about right.
That's about a decade before I came into the world at Allegheny General, so a little before my time.

Thanks for the info!

[ Parent ]
It's not good news if he gets elected governor.

I think PA prefers Dems for Federal office
but is open to the GOP on the statewide level. If that is the case, get Casey to run for Gov and then get Patrick Murphy to replace him in the Senate. He won't have to resign while campaigning and can even appoint his successor (possibly Murphy). Sure he can be atttacked for job hoping but his name is golden in PA, especially in GOP leaning areas where Gerlach would have to win handily to prevail. Also, Gerlach being pro choice puts him at risk in teh GOP primary and defininetly in the general against Casey since he'd be checkmated on the life issue among the GOP and handicapped among subrubans because of party label (since they'd already voted for Casey anyway).

PA Liberals should prefer this option since Casey out of the Senate is one less risky vote on abortion among Dems: Murphy would be more reliable and closer to their ideological leanings.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

[ Parent ]
I wish
Pennsylvania had 2 Republican senators and a strong majority of Republican US Reps until 2006.  I'm not confident that opening up a bunch of seats is a safe option.  Murphy's, Gerlach's, Casey's, and Rendell's seats all could be held by Republicans in the right circumstances.
[ Parent ]
I doubt he could win
a statewide Republican primary these days.  
The primary could be very crowded
"It's quite possible there may be five or six Republican candidates for governor by the time the dust settles," Gerlach said. "An enthusiastic primary gives all of us who consider ourselves leaders of the Republican Party an opportunity to prove that we have the ability and new ideas that can best lead the Commonwealth."

Attorney General Tom Corbett and former U.S. attorney in Philadelphia Patrick Meehan also have been mentioned as possible GOP candidates.

Corbett would probably be the favorite at this point.

If Gerlach follows Heather Wilson's example by losing in the primary and allowing a Democrat to pick up the vacated House seat, that would be the best of both worlds.

[ Parent ]
The article above is from the Reading Eagle
[ Parent ]
That wouldn't be too surprising
Especially considering Pennsylvania and New Mexico have quite a bit in common with regards to our closed primary systems. In both states, there are a surprisingly large number of "Democrats" who tend to vote Republican more often than not (they're probably a bit less conservative than many of the registered Republicans, and would be more likely to back someone like Gerlach in a primary given the chance). Unfortunately for Gerlach, like New Mexico, it's likely that because of their closed primary, the it'll be the real nutbars who will decide the Republican nomination.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Corbett
is odds on favorite to be the next Governor.  
[ Parent ]
Uhhh... no
A solid candidate yes, but favored?  I seriously doubt that.  At worst for us this open race will be a slight dem lean.
[ Parent ]
I'd give him a 60% shot
He far outran the rest of the Republican ticket this year, and he's pretty well established.

If he were ours, I'd be feeling pretty good about him.

[ Parent ]
But he's not ours, he's theirs
And their brand isn't exactly popular in PA these days.
[ Parent ]
He has his own brand, and the local media
[ Parent ]
52% against mediocre
opposition, and 50% in a close race doesn't strike me as a wildly popular and powerful politician. I really cannot for the life of me understand your love affair with Corbett. Democrats have everything going for them, Rendell's really popular, the state's trending more Democratic, Obama's still really popular, and their are several really good candidates lined up to run, and it looks like the best will split between Senate and Governor leaving us without a primary while Corbett looks like he's going to have a headache of a three or even four way race. I give him a 10% chance at becoming Governor.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Love affair?
I don't even like him. My point is simple: he ran well against a Democratic headwind and is beloved by the local media.

that stuff matters.

[ Parent ]
2004 was no headwind
And Corbett won by a whopping 50-48 margin, followed by 52-46 win in 2008.  He has some resemblence to Dave Reichert, especially the hair.
[ Parent ]
heh about the Reichert hair
I would just make this observation: in both 2004 and 2008, he was the only Republican other than Arlen Specter to win a statewide election.

There is a tradition in Pennsylvania not to elect Democratic AGs (seriously, it's never happened), and there is also a tradition of alternating every 8 years between a Republican and a Democratic Governor. That may change. I hope it changes. But Corbett seems well positioned IMHO.

[ Parent ]
Wagner got 59% in the Auditor General's race
333,292 more votes than Corbett got for AG.
[ Parent ]
Isn't PA going to lose seats in 2010 redistricting?
If so, the Governor's race is even more important. Gerlach's district in one of the top 10 grossest examples of gerrymandering in the country. He probaly cares more about the GOP winning the seat than whether he wins it since he has seniority. If the Dems get it he's fucked (as is Charlie Dent and probably Tim Murphy) but since the last round of redistricitng didn't really protect the GOP, not sure it will help them again.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
PA is projected to lose 1 seat.
PA Gov will be critical for redistricting.  Also, Dems only have a 104-99 edge in the State House.  It is conceivable that Republicans could control the entire redistricting process in PA, just as they did 10 years ago.

[ Parent ]
yeah Murphy's district
could be merged with Doyles super liberal Pittsburgh based one, making a district that even Obama won by double digits and still having some Democratic territory to spare to make Jason Altmire's district more tennable. Dent's going to be very fucked when he is drawn into much of Kanjorski's territory, not neccessarily to run agaisnt Kanjorski though, and Lackawanna county with Scranton in it is put back in PA-10 while taking out ultra-conservative Lycoming and Union counties.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Altmire doesn't need more Democrats
Having dispatched Hart for a second time, he is fairly safe in that seat.  
[ Parent ]
Altmire is a perfect fit
For the Catholic, working-class vote just past the North Side of PGH, in Ross Twp, Cranberry and the like.

He'll hold that seat for a very long time if he wants it.

[ Parent ]
Like Klenk before him
The seat is largely unchanged.  
[ Parent ]
Oops: *Klink

[ Parent ]
He'd lose the primary
So I'd love to see him run.  
The PA landscape
Likely Dem candidates for Governor are Allegheny County Executive Onorato, Lehigh County Executive Cunningham, Auditor General Wagner, and millionaire businessman Tom Knox.  

Senate candidate likely will be Murphy or Schwartz, although I expect Schwartz stays in Congress.  

Gerlach's seat probably won't be eliminated in 2010 (it's population is actually growing), but will be pushed out further from Philadelphia and Montgomery County.    

Redistricting
The redistricting occurs between 2010 and 2012 and will first affect the 2012 election.
And?
That's true, but a 2010 statewide run is perhaps the only exit strategy that Gerlach has before that point -- barring, of course, a retirement.
[ Parent ]
This could be fun to watch
If Gerlach runs, he'll get at least one very conservative challenger.  Add that to Senator Spector either retiring or getting primaried from the right again -- and this could be a Pennsylvania Republican Civil War!!
Ooh,
nutfight.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I'm with you James
As soon as I read the headline, I thought, he's scared. The guy he ran against had like 17% name recognition in the end didn't he?? lol and Gerlach was still held to 52%. I'm sure the writing on the wall must be fairly obvious to him. Not to mention that the state legislatures and Governor's mansion are much more loyal to Democrats than they were when his seat was originally created. Its almost a sense of, what does he have to lose?  
the district is really trending D
just like for Shays and Leach, and even Reichert, the writing for him is on the wall.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
HEY BOB ROGGIO
It's time to increase your name recognition from 10% to 20%!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
PA-Gov: Gerlach Ponders Statewide Run | 49 comments

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