Rasmussen (12/4, likely voters)
Creigh Deeds (D): 39
Robert McDonnell (R): 39
Some other candidate: 4
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Brian Moran (D): 41
Robert McDonnell (R): 37
Some other candidate: 5
Terry McAuliffe (D): 36
Robert McDonnell (R): 41
Some other candidate: 5
Rasmussen has polled the 2009 Virginia governor’s race, and every configuration points to a close contest. Attorney General Robert McDonnell seems to be locked in as the Republican candidate, but the Democratic field is very much up in the air, with three credible candidates in the mix: Rep. Creigh Deeds (who narrowly lost to McDonnell in the 2005 AG’s race), Rep. Brian Moran, and former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe. In the three head-to-heads, Moran fares the best, beating McDonnell by 4, while the nationally-known McAuliffe fares the worst, losing by 5. There is no poll included of the Democratic primary.
Although Deeds ran for statewide office four years ago, this may be primarily a case of name recognition; Moran is from Alexandria, so voters throughout the DC media market are likely to be familiar with him, while Deeds is from rural Bath County in southwestern Virginia. This creates an interesting strategic question: nominate Deeds and try to put into play another whole region of the state that otherwise wouldn’t be (even if it’s one that’s vote-poor and shrinking), or nominate Moran and try to maximize Dem performance in northern Virginia, which is by far the biggest concentration of Democratic strength (but still can’t, by itself, win a statewide election). As for McAuliffe, who, judging by his TV appearances this summer appears to be attempting to represent Margaritaville, name recognition may not be the problem so much as a perception of carpetbagging and/or sleazy insiderness.
sad thing is it may be true.
Anyone know how the races for AG and Lt. Gov are shaking out?
Living in DC I’ll definitely want to help out on this one. I probably will stay out of it until after the primary since I don’t know too much about anyone.
Surprisingly McCauliffe does so bad considering he probably has the highest name recognition.
On the flip then not good numbers for McDonnell since he was elected statewide.
this is a blue state now and I thought McConnell would be polling a hell of a lot better.
I like Deeds personally. I was really bummed when he oh so narrowly lost the AG race. I’d love to see him face off against McDonnell again.
Side note; Isn’t Deeds’ seat Katie Couric’s sister’s?
suggest that we need a blank slate with a good resume and plenty of money. In other words, Mark Warner II. . .
This poll may not show it but I think Deeds would be a much stronger candidate. Moran might do slightly better in NoVA but I think some appearances from Obama and Biden could give Deeds close to the same number. However in districts like the fifth and forth I think Deeds would have much more appeal and would thus have a stronger chance at winning. The policy differences are not very big between these candidates and so that’s pretty much all I care about, who can win?
I’m from Arlington and only a couple blocks away from being represented by Brian… his higher performance is due to the fact that his brother represents the 8th in Congress.
The question isnt which candidate can get to 41 (as Brian clearly can), the question is who can unite the winning coalition of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine and its clear that the only person who can is CREIGH DEEDS.
From the Poll-
Deeds is regarded favorably by 37% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 24%. Thirty-eight percent (38%) have no opinion of him.
For Moran, his favorables are 33%, his unfavorables 31%, with 36% having no opinion.
Winning this would mean bucking a three-decade historical trend. The last Virginia governor to be elected who shared the political party of the sitting President was in 1973 — since then, the last 8 governors have been of the opposition national party. Maybe not much should be made from that, but it seems that, being an off-year election, this race can be a way to vent frustration with the administration.
Note — don’t take this as a Nolan-like “we’re never going to win another election ever again” negativity — just that this will be a tough one to hold.
Another note — PLEASE not Terry McAuliffe!!!
I don’t know much about Creigh Deeds, but he appears to be somewhat moderate from what I’ve read. Virginia seems to like the moderate Democrats like Mark Warner.
Educate me…is Deeds someone that’s aligned politically with a guy like Mark Warner?
I’m not too concerned about this one. It would be nice to get the other statewide offices too (LG, AG).
I get Moran’s campaign emails – not sure how I got on the list, but I did. He’s working hard – has some of the same staff as Warner and Kaine did. He’s also already going after endorsements in the Southside – he just got House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong and a few others from Martinsville/Henry County.
I’m like most of you though – as someone with roots in SWVA, I’m going for someone out our way. I’m worried the state party will write off the region, which they shouldn’t.
For one simple reason: his name. I know the history of T-Mac, so I’m not really sure he’s the best candidate. And I’m not keen on a Democrat named Mr. Deeds running. So by default it’s Moran.