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ME-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread

by: James L.

Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 10:00 AM EST


Democratic Gov. John Baldacci of Maine is term-limited out of the governor's office next year. Who should run in his place? And who will the GOP nominate here?

Feel free to dig deep.
James L. :: ME-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread
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ME-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread | 54 comments
Tom Allen
should be the Democratic nominee. But he might face a primary challenge from Mike Michaud.

As for the Republicans, there bench strength is really weak. I don't know anyone who they could run. The two most prominent statewide pols in that state, Snowe and Collins, are safely in their Senate seats and would not want to put them at risk.

Tom Allen is fine with me
He made a good run at a tough seat. He should be the front runner for the governor mansion.

That was a tough fight that most people would never have embarked on, he should be rewarded.

[ Parent ]
Republican?
State Senator Peter Mills. He would probably defeat Baldacci if moderate vote wasn't split in 2006, and, as a result, an ultraconservative Woodcock was nominated. Even Baldacci and even with centrist Independent and Green running was able to defeat him
Maine possibles (D)
Tom Allen is probably the best bet.

One complicating factor is that Maine has no statewide elected officials other than the Governor or Senator.  There is no Lt-Governor and the Attorney General, et. al. are sppointed positions.

Democrats control both houses of the state legislature.  The state house speaker for the upcoming session will be Hannah Pingree, presumably Chellie's daughter.  Beth Edmonds is the current Senate President.  She might be a possible candidate.

Allen for the Dems
He left a seat he could have kept for thirty years to take on a popular incumbent senator; the guy put it on the line, and he'd be a good governor.
Not sure
Allen lost and lost very big, by much more then predicted. He represented half of Maine as a congressman and lost by 22% nevertheless. He is very liberal (Maine as a state is liberal-leaning, but not VERY liberal). He tried for Governor once and lost primary. So i am not sure he will not lose to any decent Republican
maine, like most new england states
doesn't kick out incumbents.  had the seat been open, allen would have won easily. even baldacci won re-election.  personally i'd like to see stephen king run for something, but that's just a pipe dream i guess.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Still
22% loss is a BIG loss. And if a seat would be open - well, a lot would depend on republican candidate (though, as in many states, republicans tend to run unelectable ultraconservatives way too often even in Maine). But Allen ran for Governor in 1994 when the seat was open - and got trounced in Democratic primary (ironically, the Republican candidate that year was none other, but Susan Collins)  
[ Parent ]
a few things
1, allen wasn't a us rep then, two, losing a primary FOURTEEN years ago doesn't mean you're a weak candidate.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
But
losing by 22 being Congressman representing half of state and failing to win a single county - does!
[ Parent ]
completely different
that's against a popular incumbent whose been there for 12 years.  this is an open race.  Allen losing to Collins so badly says nothing about Allen's weaknesses but speaks to Collins strengths.
[ Parent ]
As i said earlier
he lost open race in 1994 (and he wasn't "nobody" even then - he was Portland councilman and Mayor). IMHO - this loss says a LOT about BOTH Collins strength AND Allen weakness. No, thank you - in hypothetical matchup between Allen and Collins-type Republican i would easily vote for the later.. If Democrats would nominate someone like Michael Michaud - then may be...
[ Parent ]
Michaud?
why Michaud?  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
More moderate
and more popular (he wins easily in more republican and somewhat more conservative Northern Maine). BTW Collins and Snowe both hail from Northern part of the state too (as well as Baldacci)
[ Parent ]
Ah
so you think Allen's problem was that he was too liberal.

Good luck making that argument with the netroots.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I don't intend to argue with Netroots
 - i know very well it's useless to do so because most of them recognize only one point of view - their own, and don't care about other's views (especially if it contradict their's). That's why i almost equally dislike "hard right" and "hard left". The people of Maine spoke very eloquently - they like Snowe, they like Collins, they like Michaud, they tolerate Baldacci, they don't especially like Allen, Pingree (who underperformed considerably this year in 1st district race) and Woodcock...
[ Parent ]
They're how we get unelectable candidates
and how we get Nader spoilers. That's always been my concern with them.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
I would suggest
avoiding such sweeping generalizations about "the netroots", especially on this blog.
[ Parent ]
Why?
Doesn't anyone entitled to his views even if they are not a majority's views on this site? I don't see "no moderates allowed to speak here" written in big letters over this site...
[ Parent ]
You're entitled to your views
But at SSP, you are asked to engage in discussion with a level of mutual respect and civility. Slurring your ideological opponents as narrow-minded or calling progressives "loonies" doesn't fly here.
[ Parent ]
It's normal
to call republicans "repugs", "wingers" and so on here. No respect required. Why different standards to other ideology???
[ Parent ]
Because this is, quite simply, a Democratic blog.
And if you don't like how we do things, you can leave.
[ Parent ]
I expected exactly these words
And these people dares to call himself "democrats" and speak about "preservation of rights and liberties". You are no better in this respect then your "colleagues" from, say, Redstate. A mirror image, dear hypocrite...))))
[ Parent ]
How did Musgrove do again?
   Oh yeah.  He lost by ten points.  Here, I am attempting to make the point that conservative Democrats had a lousy track record this cycle.  

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Tto lose by 10
in Mississippi is a sort of honour - many of you praised Martin yesterday even so he lost by 15 on Georgia (but he is one of "you", so - sorry....). To lose by 22 in Maine isn't  
[ Parent ]
One of us. One of us.
   You love moral victories!  Martin came much closer to victory than Musgrove.  Yet Musgrove is more conservative than Martin.  Did your head just explode?  Could it be that most voters don't perceive candidates to be on various points of a liberal-conservative continuum?  I know, that would make things complicated!  

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
2 Different Arguments
You seem to be making two wholly different arguments.

1. Allen is a weak candidate.  In support you reference a 14 year old race and the fact that he got thumped in this year's senate race.  I do not think the 1994 race is instructive.  Afterall, he did go on to win several House races after that.  I am not sure if this year's result is because Collins was very strong or Allen was weak.  I'll leave that to those who follow Maine more closely.

2. Your second and argument seems to be that he is too liberal for your tastes.  This may be the case and ideologically you may prefer centrists but this point is unrelated to your main argument.  This is first and foremost a horserace blog, so setting aside your personal preferences for a moment do you have any evidence that Allen is too liberal for the Maine electorate:  Did he consistently underperform in his House races?  Do you have polling data?  Or, are you simply stating your ideological preference?

[ Parent ]
You're right
it seems s/he is upset that a liberal ran and has labeled Allen a weak candidate because he ran to the left of Collins, who ideologically fits Maine to a tee (I spend a lot of time in Maine)

Maine is a moderate state...reminds me a little bit of a more liberal Pennsylvania where Democrats and Republicans are ideologically close together. There aren't that many Kuciniches or Tancredos in Maine.

Allen was forced to run to the left of Collins who ran to the center. It put him ideologically to the left of both Republicans and Democrats in the state and we outsiders decided to try to paint Collins as a Bush loyalst. This failed miserably because Mainers love her and feel like they know her and did not like outsiders labelling her, whether it was true or not.

Allen would've easily won the seat had Collins retired, but Collins was always unbeatable...much like Chambliss in the runoff. Allen's loss was inevitable.

But as for our commenter, it seems his problem with Allen is how liberal he is, not how "weak" he is. Allen was actually a strong candidate, he just didn't fit the state ideologically...we needed a candidate who was like Collins, which would've pissed off plenty in the DailyKos/OpenLeft world. We would've been hearing endless ranting about "they're both the same, what's the difference, why bother supporting said Democrat over Collins).


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
The evidence
is usually the electorate's behavoir. He got decent, but not overwhelming percentage in house races in 1st district, which includes liberal (often - VERY liberal) Portland. So - it's not a great achievment in my eyes. Just as a relatively narrow Pingree's victory (less then 55% in very good Democratic year) in the same district only strengthened my conviction that she is, generally, a bad candidate. On the contrary, Michaud won in more conservative 2nd district in 2002, beating strong republican opponent (who is a state Senator and even - republican minority leader now) and continues to win with 60+ percentages (about 67 this year) almost every time - THIS is a strong candidate according to my criteria. And so on. In addition Maine isn't Massachusetts, Rhode Island or even Vermont - it still gave McCain over 40% in this absolutely bad for republicans (crisis) year - so not every democratic candidate is good here. Democrats have big majority now in House because they don't forget to run not only Nancy Pelosi- and Maxine Waters-type candidates (which are fine for SF and LA), but also Travis Childers in Mississippi, Bobby Bright in Alabama or, at least, Chet Edwards in Texas (a real "big tent party"). So i prefer candidates tailored not for "netroots tastes", but rather for "state tastes". Moderate liberal Michaud seems better candidate then left-liberal Allen because of all that reasons to me.  
[ Parent ]
Well
SSP endorsed and raised money for Childers (I think only done three times here) and many in the Netroots are very opean to the idea of having people run who can win.

I don't see any reason why Allen can't win a race in Maine because of ideological reasons. He should, however, run a better campaign than the Senate one if he wants to win.

[ Parent ]
He can win
in an open race or against a conservative weak incumbent.

Collins is very popular and is perceived to be moderate...and trying to label her as a Bush loyalist only backfired on us. "That's not OUR Susan Collins! How dare you say she's like them!"

Allen could win an open Senate race or open Governor's race I think...unless of course Collins or Snowe run for Governor.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
He got the same percentages
if not better than our Presidential candidates did in ME-01 when he was running there.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
I see "antoni" got a new account

[ Parent ]
Wrong
I never changed anything in my account. In your intolerance you simply can't nderstand thst people can disagree with you and your views and write it openly
[ Parent ]
You're an idiot
Spinning McCain losing Maine by 17 points as evidence of Republican strength there is just ridiculous.

Your ideological preferences are trumping your analysis.

I agree that Maine isn't Massachusetts, but nobody's making that argument. And I agree that Michaud performs very strongly. But your argument that Allen and Pingree are too left for the state just doesn't hold water - especially because ME-2 is not that much more conservative than ME-1, and neither of them was actually terribly well regarded by the netroots.

Maine is a Democratic state that just happens to have as its two favourite politicians Republicans who are considered to be moderate. Neither of them can be beaten, and results against them tell us little.

[ Parent ]
It's not me
who is an idiot - it's you. You tend yo ignore facts and numbers out of ideological blindness, you want to run loser again because he ideoloficsly closer to you. No one mentioned Michaud before me, though he undefeated in his career (just as Snowe BTW), but you all unanimously praise multiple times loser. I can only hope that he will run AND LOSE again
[ Parent ]
Oh?
The reason nobody's mentioning Michaud is that he's got a job. Allen's made himself unemployed and there were rumours he wanted to try for governor which was why he didn't attack, so he's a likely candidate.

Moreover, we aren't all convinced he's a good candidate. I think he's a substandard one, but he could probably still win a governor's race as he wouldn't be up against an institution and he could bring in the cash. Maine ran ten points more Democratic than the nation this year, so you don't actually need to be a moderate to win there.

Meantime, your analysis is full of wholes. Harping on Allen's defeat IN A PRIMARY in 1994 against a two-term former governor and the then occupant of ME-01, but excusing Collins' third place performance in the governor's race IN THE GENERAL of that year (which was, you might remember, a pretty good year for Republicans) is a massive double standard.

[ Parent ]
We all get your ideological preference
Yeah I get it you like moderates.  There are actually several other commenters here who share your taste for moderates (ArkDem comes immediately to mind).  But you completely ignored my question.

You spent exactly one sentence on Allen and even then simply asserted he ran poorly without any back up or evidence or presidential numbers etc etc.  You then immediately moved on to denigrating Pelosi and talking about anything and everything except the question:  what are the numbers to show Allen is generally a weak candidate?

He got blown out this time so we need some other evidence to know whether this is because Collins is so incredibly strong or if he is subpar.  Remember Collins finished 3rd in 1994 and came back to win the Senate seat two years later so not every loss is a sign that a candidate is bad.

You seem to live in Maine.  I don't.  My question is sincere.  Setting aside your policy preferences (this is first and foremost a horserace blog) tell us why Allen does not fit Maine.  Not why he is too left to win your vote, but why he can't win a statewide race in Maine.

[ Parent ]
A question for the Maine residents amongst us
I am not from Maine.  I know there obviously are several here who are.  I know more about people like Mike Stack than Mike Michaud, so I admit that this is not discussing home territory for me.

I do have a question about Collins.  What type of person would vote for both Collins and Obama?  Would such a person really be a moderate?  Are they really closer to Collins ideologically or perhaps they are closer to her culturally?

They might have the same label, but just because one liked Joe Conti definitely does not mean one would like Stewart Greenleaf.  One might find that one had some good qualities whilst the other is totally obnoxious, irritating, and grating to the nerves.

Joe Hoeffel showed himself to be a good Democrat, taking one for the team, in running against Specter and losing as he did.  There is no question about his support for the party and his courage.  However, I am much more pleased with Allyson Schwartz having the 13th District than having him.

Again, for you Maine people amongst us, what type of person would vote for both Collins and Obama?

[ Parent ]
Take a logic pill
That proves nothing.

I Peter ran against Jesus, Jesus would win.  that doesn't comment at all on Peter's viability as a candidate against anyone else.

All other things being equal, Allen earns a lot for having the backbone to run against Collins.  That is the type of politician we need.  Let him be elected Governor and take Collins on again in six years.

[ Parent ]
McCain vs Collins
what we have here is a failure to communicate.  

we have a couple of people who seem to sit back and talk about how Allen is "too liberal" for the state, which is a bunch of bull.  After defeated the incumbent with 55% in 1996, Tom Allen never got below 59% breaking 60% a few times.  

Lets take a quick look at who he faced.  After defeating the incumbent by double digits, he face a businessman whom he beat by more than 25%.  He then went on to beat the state senate minority leader by 23%.  He then beat a former state Rep and college official by the same amount.  He then took on a popular former State Senator winning by his smallest margin since beating the incumbent, 19%.  He then went on 2 years ago to beat a sitting State Rep by 29%.  Thats not a sign of weakness in the 1st district.  Which isn't much more liberal than the 2nd.  Barack Obama won both districts so that tells you which way the 2nd district leans and it isn't to the right.  

The simple fact is, Obama and Allen ran against 2 different people.  Obama won big against John McCain, a man who was putting out his more conservative beliefs and didn't campaign heavily in the state.  Tom Allen faced off against Susan Collins, who after getting crushed in the Governor's race, went on to defeat a former governor, and then defeat the former State Senator who will soon sit in Allen's seat.  Pingree lost the first district to Collins too, so it just goes to show its all about who your running against.  Tom allen simply couldn't beat Susan Collins.  I don't think Mike Michaud could either. But in no way shape or form is Tom allen to liberal for the state of Maine.  

I hope he runs for governor because I knoe he will easily win.  There are 3 people who could beat him in that state, maybe 4.  They are Collins, Snowe and Angus King,  and maybe Mike Michaud.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Collins came a poor THIRD
in the 1994 governors race.  That didnt stop her in 1996 from winning the open Senate seat.  
[ Parent ]
There was
an independent candidate, who ran as more or less a "slightly more liberal centrist" then, who, BTW, won that election. And that was the ONLY Collins defeat. Not so with Allen - 2 times and 63years  (65 in 2010) is enough for me
[ Parent ]
I don't see any evidence Maine disliked him
It just liked Collins much more. He'd never had trouble being re-elected before.

No other Republican in state has the profile of the Senators, so I suspect he'd start with an advantage.

That said, I do think he ran a pretty terrible campaign - losing by ten points was almost inevitable, but losing by more than twenty shows rank incompetence - and am not sure he'd be the best candidate. I don't see the value in a game of political musical chairs.

[ Parent ]
Maine...
...may lean to the the left but that doesn't mean it's monolithically Democratic.  It isn't a very partisan state.  If a Republican like Collins isn't seen as too conservative they can live VERY comfortably as a Republican.

I think that people were just expecting Allen to replicate what Whitehouse did in Rhode Island is just simply asking too much.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
And even Whitehouse
only narrowly won. Rhode Island is anywhere between five and ten points more Democratic than Maine...A similar race in Maine probably would've ended in a Chafee win.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Just to have some fun...
Martha Stewart, we lose Arnold in 2010 and it would be a shame to not have a high-profile celeb in a statehouse! Plus, you would have to love someone convicted of insider-training running a state!

But on a serious note, Tom Allen would probably be our best bet though he got his ass kicked by a woman, that was the inevitable result, and with even a slightly better campaign will garner a win against anybody whose last names are not Snowe or Collins

How about
A real star power match. Stephen King vs Daddy Bush.

King was born in Maine and is a known Democrat and Daddy Bush has a vacation home there. How about that?

Also, this is off topic but there is no open thread. Former Delaware Lt. Governor John Carney is running for "federal office" in 2010. This either means he's going to run against the son of the VPOUSA which would be a suicide mission or take on Mike Castle which would be a top pickup opportunity. Carney for House!

That's certainly diary worthy
I'm guessing he runs for Senate. A Carney-Castle race would be a top race and he may be trying to scare him into retirement.

Everyone outside of Delaware assumes Beau will win(including me). But I've heard from people from Delaware that Beau is a pretty weak candidate.

[ Parent ]
He may be a weak candidate
But his father can jet around and raise millions of bucks for him. No way he loses.
[ Parent ]
Tom Allen is the obvious pick
I wouldn't read much into his disasterous campaign against Collins this year.  Snowe and Collins are just two Senators we never had a realistic shot at beating.  Allen's favorables have always been high, it was just that Collins were even higher.  Allen should be favored over anyone the GOP can put against him in an open Maine Governor's race.
ME-Gov: Statewide Recruitment Thread | 54 comments

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