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CA-44: Hedrick Concedes, But Vows to Run Again

by: James L.

Sat Nov 29, 2008 at 5:14 AM EST


After very nearly shocking the nation with his surprisingly strong result against GOP scuzzbucket Rep. Ken Calvert, Democrat Bill Hedrick has finally conceded defeat. From the Riverside Press-Enterprise:

More than three weeks after Election Day, the votes have finally been tallied in the 44th Congressional District, and Democratic challenger Bill Hedrick acknowledged defeat.

"We have shown quite clearly that we most certainly can win this seat two years from now," Hedrick said in a letter sent late Thursday to supporters. "While we are disappointed that we did not win this election, we are not discouraged."

The longtime Corona-Norco school board member vowed to run again in two years to unseat incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert.

This is a rematch that I can get behind. On paper, Hedrick is a fine candidate -- he's an elected school board president with a son serving in Iraq. I wouldn't mind seeing what he'd be able to do with the enthusiastic backing of national Democrats, as well as a healthy campaign budget (he raised just $155K for his race). In a district like this one, the Dem bench is probably pretty bare, so giving Hedrick a second crack seems like a pretty good idea to me.

Update: In the comments, SSPer Steven Axelrod, himself a CA-44 resident, weighs in. It's worth a read.
James L. :: CA-44: Hedrick Concedes, But Vows to Run Again
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CA-44: Hedrick Concedes, But Vows to Run Again | 43 comments
on paper is the key word
none of us knew anything about Hedrick. and really still don't. James you can't even say he was on your top 50 possible Democratic wins can you?

I think that this is one of those that we could have won flying under the radar. I'm not so sure if we put money into. That being said, I think some early polling would determine how likely an upset is here

Top 50?
I never once heard this race mentioned by anyone.  It probably wasn't on anyone's top 80 races list.
[ Parent ]
I'm not asking you to put money into anything.
And I don't think we need a poll to tell us what we just saw -- Calvert just isn't that popular. You can bet that the DCCC will be taking this race seriously next cycle.
[ Parent ]
well you know he did
get caught by police getting a blowjob from a prostitute in the 90s, when he was still married. Got reelected, figure that one out. So the Democrats thought he was the kind of caliber man we needed to have a safe seat. His district used to be a swing district and he won one of the closest races in 1992 and several close reelections. Its safe to say he and Lungren would have lost under their districts' previous configurements. Oh well, it looks like its turned into a swing district again, simply because Riverside and San Bernadino are moving further and further away from Republicans every year, and even Orange county isn't as Republican as it used to be. Calvert's never been that popular, having said all of that.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Disagree
Now that we know Calvert is vulnerable, it's time for California Dems to find a real candidate.  
Like whom?
It doesn't look like there are many (or even any) Democratic state legislators in the area.
[ Parent ]
Exactly.
"Like whom?" indeed. If there are alternative candidates, I'd like to hear about them. We certainly can do worse than a guy who has some elected experience behind him.
[ Parent ]
Yep, yep, yep...
Our problem in CA-44 is that we hardly have any bench to work with. Perhaps Riverside Mayor Ron Loveridge or some Dem on the Riverside City Council can be convinced to run, but I doubt it. And anyways, we can't win the district without at least holding down the GOP margin in the Orange County. Bill Hedrick may have been killed in Coto & Ladera Ranch & San Juan Capistrano & San Clemente, but he nonetheless was killed more softly than past Dem candidates. If he can improve his margin just a little here while also boosting his Riverside advantage, Bill Hedrick can win here.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
At the very least
Contesting these very republican-leaning districts in California should help come 2012.  Hopefully the next round of redistricting will not be another ridiculous incumbent protection map and will make another half dozen or so republican house seats more vulnerable.
[ Parent ]
dunno
Something must have really happened to the electorate in this district recently if we don't have anyone else.

It looks like the Republicans are going to have to settle for fewer districts next cycle.

[ Parent ]
just $155K
It's sad that $155K isn't considered enough to be competitive in a House race these days.  

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
A hot assembly race... In Wisconsin will usually get 100K for the incumbent

[ Parent ]
But the problem...
In California is that $100K isn't even enough for a winning Assembly contest. That Hedrick came so close with so little is simply breathtaking! So really, imagine what he can do with some real $$$$ in 2010.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)
[ Parent ]
Hedrick virtually the only choice for rematch
I live in this district. It was designed as a Republican stronghold. It stretches from Riverside County through Orange County. There is little geographical or cultural coherence to the district. Apart from the University of California, Riverside, some African American neighborhoods, and crucially an expanding Latino population, it's composed of the kind of suburban and exurban sprawl that used to be gold for Republicans.

Nevertheless, Ken Calvert is widely unpopular here. Even Republicans are lukewarm about him. He's a sleazebag, who has enriched himself by using his influence to effect lucrative real estate deals. He won the seat as a moderate, fending off the more conservative Sarkis Khoury in two primaries. But then he held the seat as a Bush clone. His mailers thunder against terrorists and immigrants, but he's rarely seen in the district. Even against no viable opposition, he has seen his victory margin diminish from election to election. This time, running against a live and sentient opponent, he almost lost.

Hedrick is a good guy--smart and progressive. He signed on to the Responsible Plan for getting out of Iraq. His views on social and economic issues are liberal, indeed surprisingly liberal for this district. He is pro-choice, pro-union, and pro-environment. He raised a lot of money all by himself and with the aid of devoted supporters, holding house party after house party all over the spread-out district. He ran the most visible Democratic campaign I've ever seen against Calvert.

There is no other prominent Democrat in the district--at least none that I'm aware of. My Assemblyman and state Senator are both Republicans, and I believe that is true elsewhere in the district. The mayor of Riverside, Ron Loveridge, is a Democrat but a business-friendly centrist. My supervisor, Bob Buster, is also a Democrat, and I think a good one, but he seems content with his present office.

With help from the Netroots and the DCCC, Hedrick can win next time. His presence in the House would be a huge improvement over the present incumbent. He merits attention from folks on this site--and, I believe, ultimately our support.

Good to know
It's great to see a progressive running such an impressive campaign.  Like you said, with a little early money, Hedrick can win.
[ Parent ]
Agreed...
And thanks, Steven, for sharing with us! I now live in Central Orange County, but in high school I lived in South County... So I'm quite familiar with the OC part of the 44th! Basically, it's not all that far off from "The Real Housewives". They don't know who Ken Calvert is, but they still vote for him & other Republicans because they think the GOP will help them avoid paying taxes and having to live in the same gated community with a bunch of "illegal" immigrant hippie vegan gay marrried couples.

Fortunately, the Riverside part of the district is nothing like the OC part of the district. Unfortunately, The Legislature drew this district as it is to keep Calvert in office. I guess they figured if they could add enough South OC Republicans, they'd be enough to override the Riverside voters if they ever grow tired of Calvert (as they are now).

But hopefully, the changing demographics in Riverside County will be enough & perhaps we can pick off a few more OC votes to win next time. And yes, I agree that Bill Hedrick is best suited for a 2010 rematch. I don't see any of the Riverside area electeds stepping up to the plate, and perhaps that's a good thing. Bill Hedrick knows how to get elected in Corona, which is more similar to South OC than the Riverside area. I just don't know how someone like Ron Loveridge would play in Ladera Ranch or San Clemente, so perhaps it's better for us to stick with Hedrick.

Yes, Virginia, there ARE progressives in Nevada!
24, gay male, Democrat, NV-03 (or 04?)

[ Parent ]
is it possible
Nevertheless, Ken Calvert is widely unpopular here
Is it possible that Calvert could get a primary challenge?
[ Parent ]
Calvert has been primaried before
  but always managed to come out ahead; at least once it was because he had two or three opponents and won on name recognition. He seems to be the ultimate backbencher; the only things anyone knows about him is that he was blown in a car and has some shady deals. Accomplishments? Not much.  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Shows how incompetent Democrats were in the 1990's
for not targeting and defeating this guy then.  If any Democrat in a moderately Democratic district got a blowjob from a prostitute, you can bet the house that Republicans would have gone all out to defeat him.  
[ Parent ]
See FL-8
Circa 2008.

Feels like we're heading down this path all over again.

Unpopular/sleazy Republican incumbent, leans R district (usually), very liberal democrat. History repeats itself.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Do you mean NC-08 circa 2006?
as in, a totally under-the-radar race that we lost by a tiny margin?

Speaking of which, what was the margin here in CA-44 this year?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
CA-44 was far more under the radar
Most analysts had NC-08 at leans R by election day 2006.  So far as I know every major analyst had CA-44 solid R on election day 2008.
[ Parent ]
Many polls actually showed Kissell leading in NC-08
in 2006.  
[ Parent ]
About R+3.6%
The Secretary of State site gives 51.8-48.2 Calvert.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Nope
I meant FL-8 due the potential of a Republican primary and the hate for the candidate within their own party.

Still, you could say CA-44 (2010) -> FL-8 (2008) -> NC-8 (2006) kinda . . .

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Its not a Republican stronghold anymore
The hispanic population is exploding and Riverside is steadily trending more Democratic, while Democrats are doing better in Orange County than they did in past elections.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
DFA had endorsed him
He was not completely overlooked by the whole wide world. Democracy for America, to their great credit, had Hedrick on their endorsement list.


Bill Hedrick (CA-44)
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When Bill Hedrick talks about bringing our brave men and women in uniform home from the War in Iraq, his opponent is silent. When Bill Hedrick talks about clean, renewable energy sources, Ken Calvert is too busy taking money from big oil. And, when Bill Hedrick talks about protecting American jobs and restoring the middle class, Ken Calvert says nothing because he has no economic plan.

Bill Hedrick is an educator, elected official, and community leader with a record of commonsense problem-solving that can't be matched. Now is the time for Ken Calvert's shameful and self-serving Congressional career to come to an end.


How many candidates did they endorse?
I mean, it wouldn't be hard to endorse him if you endorse everyone.  
[ Parent ]
Bennion Spencer?
Or, for that matter, George Mays and John Driscoll?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Not so
DFA endorsed only 14 for the U.S. House, plus four for the Senate, Barack Obama, and some state candidates.

Donna Edwards MD-04
Charlie Brown CA-04
Alan Grayson FL-08
Bill Hendrick CA-44
Martin Heinrich NM-01
Jim Himes CT-04
Mary Jo Kilroy OH-15
Larry Kissell NC-08
Ben Ray Lujan NM-03
Gary Peters MI-09
Dan Maffei NY-25
Eric Massa NY-29
Chellie Pingree ME-01
Dana Titus NV-03

I don't know when DFA made the endorsements. Grayson in FL was a late bloomer, but he won a late primary. Pingree in ME, why put her on a list when I never thought she needed any outside help, nor Lujan in NM. Otherwise this Democracy For America list pretty much overlaps the DCCC Red to Blue list, and Kos' Orange to Blue, and the lists of "Lean, Likely, and Toss Up" that James L put up here at SSP and I kept wanting to shift one column to the left. :-(

So I think we have to tip our hat to DFA for being ahead of the pack on this one race.

[ Parent ]
Seems like they were rather (small c) conservative for the most part
So CA-44 stands out as the longshot that they correctly read the tea leaves on.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Bleh. Reading about this yesterday gave me a nightmare about Franken
conceding before everything was done... sigh
Be careful here....
If you look at the numbers (granted, they're not finalized yet in California, but we still have a good idea), it looks more like Republican turnout (at least in California) was down because they knew they were going to get their butts kicked, and that's the reason why Obama did so well in California, and not because Democratic turnout was so great.

In 2004, Bush got 322,473 votes in Riverside County, while Kerry got 228,806 votes there.  Now in 2008, the non-finalized numbers have McCain at 197,517 votes, and Obama at 210,905 votes.  Unless the early & absentee votes there net Obama an additional 18,000 votes, Obama will have underperformed Kerry in this county.  (Granted, CA-44 is only a tiny part of Riverside County, but I don't have the district numbers for the presidential race, and I still think these numbers are instructive.)  Even if there's another 20,000 votes for Obama there, that would still only mean he outperformed Kerry by a measley 1%.

Now, this was in a year where all we heard was talk about massive Democratic turnout.  It DIDN'T HAPPEN in large parts of California.  It was Republicans staying home, NOT Democrats turning out in unheard-of numbers.  Same thing when you look at the numbers in Butte County (part of which is in CA-04, I believe).  I give this warning because Obama won't be at the top of the ticket in 2010.  And if there's anywhere near "normal" Republican turnout that year, then a lot of these races where we think we have a good shot will end up being double-digit losses for us.

We have to understand what got us here.  I think the Hedrick-Calvert race was indicative of Republicans simply staying home in Riverside.  If they show up with their normal proportion in a midterm election, there's no way Democratic turnout will be able to match it, I believe.  Look at the 2004 numbers.  Calvert got 138,768 votes against a virtually unknown Democrat named Vandenberg, who got 78,796 votes.  Then in 2006, in a rematch, turnout was obviously way down for both parties, and Calvert easily won again, 89,555 votes to 55,275 votes.  Now in 2008, the (un-finalized) numbers have Calvert at 97,273 votes, and Hedrick at 89,149 votes.  That's a 13% increase in the Dem share of the vote compared to 2004, but a 30% drop in Calvert's numbers.  But I think a lot of that has to do with McCain keeping Republicans at home in Riverside, rather than what Hedrick did.  (And with almost no money, I really don't think you can argue that those numbers were a result of what Hedrick did.)  So keep this in mind before everyone starts crowing about how CA-44 is within our reach.

From what I see in the Secretary of State's site
Obama got 299,380 votes in Riverside County, while McCain got 293,349.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns...

In CA-44, the numbers were 125,269 Calvert, 116,931 Hedrick.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
And, according to Hedrick's website
...the totals are:

Hedrick: 123,109
Calvert: 129,499

Looks like they've been getting faster updates than the CA SoS (wouldn't be the first time we've seen this).

http://hedrickforcongress.com/

[ Parent ]
OK, with these new numbers...
it looks like there may have been an actual swing towards the Democrats then in California too, and not just Republicans staying home.  Though I still think, given the significant drops in the GOP's numbers, that a certain amount of Republicans stayed home instead of actually voting Democratic.

Which makes me wonder, how awesome could our gains have been if they had actually invested any resources into California?  The problem was that every activist, it seemed like, was going to Nevada on the weekends and more or less ignoring our own state (witness the passage of Prop. 8, for example).  We forgot about our own home in the process.  Now the good news is that obviously the activists won't be leaving for Nevada every weekend in 2010.

It would be interesting (and a job for Nate Silver) to see how each state's turnout compared to 2004, and what it was like if it was a state Obama targeted.  Something like this post he wrote, only based on the classification of whether it was a state Obama devoted serious resources to or not.

[ Parent ]
I would really like to see a CA-Dem party leadership shake up...
CA-44 is a very good example of poor leadership at the state level. The CA-Dems leadership generally is a lot more concerned about protecting their own incumbency to see what is really going on. And on top of that, they are too NorCA focused from their fortress in Sacramento. Sure, CA-04 was a good fight but there are a number of low hanging fruit in SoCal ready for the plucking... CA-42 is another good example - Gary Miller is one of the most corrupt member of Congress in a district that is on the verge of becoming minority-majority and yet, CA-Dems have not invested any money or energy into registering new Latino and Asian voters. They just write off CA-42 every 2 years because it was designed to be a safe GOP seat... completely ignoring the fact that demographics have changed drastically since 2000.

Of course the flip side of that argument may be that by 2012, the districts will be redrawn and CA-44 (and CA-42) may end up being "safe" Dem seats... who knows

What was our CA-42 margin this year?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
60-40
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

Our guy lost 60-40.  I guess that's not bad considering we ran a badly underfunded candidate with little name recognition.

[ Parent ]
I do wonder...
if we would've had a closer race had DailyKos blogger Ron Shepston won the primary.  He surely would've gotten at least more netroots support.
[ Parent ]
Probably a bit better
Our candidate in CA-42 only spent $185K, nearly half of which was self-financing.  The netroots alone probably could have raised at least that much for Shepston.
[ Parent ]
Shepston's problem...
... wasn't money.  He raised quite a bit of money in the primary and managed to come in third out of three candidates with a rather poor showing.  Shepston's problem was relying solely on the internet to be his campaign - no door knocking.  The internet is a great tool, especially for fundraising, but it can't be your whole strategy.

I think Ron is a great guy and an attractive candidate - he just needs some guidance.  Hopefully he runs in 2010 and manage to win in the primary.  

[ Parent ]
Hedrick will win in 2010
Little late getting to this thread, but I wanted to add my two cents about Bill Hedrick.  

I live in the 44th and I can say without a doubt the Bill can and will win come 2010.  The final numbers coming out of SOS put Bill at 48.8%!  The Dem before that got 37% in 2006.  I was active in Bill's campaign and I can tell you that he is the only person who will have a chance against Calvert.  

Bill's success is not some freak accident of Obama support or dumb luck.  It's hard work!  I've lived in the 44th the full 16 years it's existed, and Bill is the first candidate FOR ANY OFFICE that's ever knocked on my door, called me, or asked me for a donation and to volunteer.  And he knocked on Republican doors too!  Imagine their surprise! It paid off - 40-50% of Bill's donors and endorsers are Republicans.  Bill has often been the only elected Democrat in Corona-Norco, which is 40% of the CD, and he has built solid relationships with local Republicans who are tired of Calvert and his corrupt antics.  Bill has won the respect of OC Democrats and Republicans, including Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez who held a fundraiser for him in October.

If you crunch the numbers, Bill won several precincts in San Clemente (where registration says he shouldn't have won any!), two pcts in San Juan, and he managed to double what the last Democrat got in OC.  Bill beat Dem registration all over the CD.  In places like Mira Loma and Eastvale, where the registration is 2-to-1 or even 3-to-1 Republican, Bill won every precinct.

It's true the Riverside mayor is a Democrat, but not a very good one as he continues to endorse Calvert election after election - he's also 70 years old!  Supervisor Bob Buster was once a Dem, but he is now an 'independent.' I'd estimate at least 80% of elected officials in the 44th CD are Republicans, and many of them are very conservative.

Bill is the guy to run in 2010.  Over 1000 donors, over 1000 volunteers, over 100 house parties held in Riv and OC...and one of the best showings of any Democrat anywhere put Bill on the top of the list.  It's the most amazing grassroots campaign anyone around here has ever seen!  

You'll be hard pressed to find another Democrat who's going to find support to run against Bill after what he's done for Democrats in this district.  And what he continues to do - tonight he was the guest speaker at a peace vigil in downtown Riverside.  Bill's not just a good guy, he's our guy.  

The best thing the Democratic party could do for the 44th is to throw their support behind Bill right away.  10,000 newly registered Dems over 2009 and the 44th will be solidly blue.  A little money to reach out to more people and it's his.  Bill lost by 6100 votes.  He's got two years to get them.  Do yourself a favor and take a close look at Bill, who he is, and the numbers he pulled off with no help whatsoever from the party.  This will be THE race in 2010.

CA-44: Hedrick Concedes, But Vows to Run Again | 43 comments

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