(From the diaries - promoted by James L.)
 I confess it - this was more challenging for me to put together than my earlier piece on Carol Shea-Porter, because in comparing the Charlie Bass (R-inc) - Paul Hodes (D) race of 2006 to the Paul Hodes (D-inc) - Jennifer Horn (R) race of 2008, the numbers tell you over and over again that the two are not really comparable. Very much apples and oranges.
There are a number of reasons for this. For starters, Charlie Bass held on to a district for six terms that showed less and less opportunity for the GOP every year, especially given the radicalism of the Bush brand in the final six of them. So the absence of a Bass incumbency factor gave us he opportunity to see the district more as it may actually be. Secondly, freshman class president Paul Hodes has proven to be, unlike the BassMaster, something of a leader in Congress, and has paid excellent attention to the needs of his district. Third, he's a capable fundraiser. And finally, in Jennifer S. Horn-Palin, the GOP chose a standard-bearer who could not be more out-of-touch with CD2. But let's listen to what the numbers are saying.
(More below the fold...) |
| First, the list of towns that flipped from Charlie Bass in '06 to Paul Hodes in '08 is - happily - so long it's not useful even listing, imho. But just for the record, the total number is forty-five. And the most important ones, in voter-rich terms, are accounted for in the tables below.
Jennifer Horn, on the other hand, flipped one whole town: Millsfield. Total votes cast? 15.
Due to the larger number of towns in CD2 v. CD1, and the convincing victory Hodes had (and leaving aside cities with wards for a moment), I thought it would be both more readable and more useful to focus first on those towns with greater than 2000 votes cast for the general election cycle. As in my earlier post on CSP, the following list represents those populous towns where Paul Hodes raised his vote percentage from '06 to '08 by three percentage points or more. The table also lists total votes cast, and Hodes' 2008 vote percentage, the color of which declares who won that town (blue for Hodes, red for Horn):
| Town |
'08 Hodes % |
'06-'08 +/-% Diff. |
Total Votes Cast |
|---|
| Littleton* | 57.7% | +16.5% | 2699 |
| Newport | 59.4% | +9.8% | 2845 |
| Plymouth | 67.8% | +8.4% | 3457 |
| Northfield* | 53.9% | +8.0% | 2204 |
| Hillsborough | 56.9% | +7.5% | 2743 |
| Epsom* | 51.3% | +7.1% | 2397 |
| Pembroke | 56.7% | +7.0% | 3580 |
| Loudon* | 51.8% | +6.2% | 2742 |
| Weare* | 48.7% | +5.4% | 4447 |
| New Boston | 45.04% | +5.2% | 2982 |
| Jaffrey | 56.8% | +5.1% | 2766 |
| Charlestown | 63.2% | +4.9% | 2475 |
| New London* | 54.2% | +4.9% | 2788 |
| Bow* | 53.4% | +4.9% | 4645 |
| Allenstown | 57.3% | +4.8% | 2064 |
| Henniker | 59.8% | +4.7% | 2405 |
| Enfield | 64.6% | +4.6% | 2333 |
| Pelham | 46.0% | +4.3% | 6310 |
| Walpole | 61.0% | +4.3% | 2143 |
| Hopkinton | 60.6% | +4.1% | 3744 |
| Litchfield | 45.0% | +3.7% | 4252 |
| Hudson* | 49.1% | +3.3% | 11,332 |
* Flipped to Hodes in 2008.
Now, the next step would be to do the same for those towns of over 2000 votes cast where Paul's vote percentage decreased by three points or more. The (happy) problem with that? There's only one town that fits the bill, Brookline. With 2,706 votes cast, Hodes won 41.8% of the vote, a decrease of 4.5% from 2006. And I'll be generous: neighboring Boston-commute southern tier town Hollis gets honorary mention with a Hodes decrease of 2.9% from the last cycle.
Finally, let's have a look at how Paul fared from 2006 to 2008 in the major cities of the second district:
| City |
'08 Hodes % |
'06-'08 +/-% Diff. |
Total Votes Cast |
|---|
| Berlin | 73.0% | +13.0% | 4179 |
| Claremont | 64.2% | +6.7% | 5470 |
| Concord | 65.6% | +5.2% | 21,128 |
| Franklin | 58.2% | +8.9% | 3587 |
| Keene | 70.2% | +3.4% | 12,263 |
| Lebanon | 68.1% | +3.4% | 6455 |
| Nashua | 55.3% | +0.2% | 37,995 |
So. What observations, if any, come from these numbers, aside from the obvious points above about the lopsided nature of this race compared to 2006?
* Check out Littleton, Plymouth, and Berlin on those charts. Huge increases for all three. North Country Yankee natives are Democrats now.
* The Upper Valley continues to be a dominant - and growing - sector for Democrats. Not on the chart, and populous enough to have its own wards, Hanover gave Hodes 78.7% of its vote with 6,912 votes cast.
* From the long litany and diverse nature of flipped towns such as Grafton, New London, Milford, Colebrook, and Boscawen, you can feel the grip of the GOP's too-long grip on CD2 slipping away, perhaps for a good long time. The six term backbencher BassMaster really did hold on to half of New Hampshire longer than was ultimately viable.
* Here's the biggest surprise of all for me from these numbers. Take a look at the percent increases for the larger towns, and for all the cities. What stands out? Nashua. It didn't budge.
But guess what else? With all due respect to the good Granite Staters of Nashua, it didn't much matter, either. Despite being by far the most populous city in the district, it simply isn't enough to focus on Nashua and hope it spreads outwards. In this sense, NHGOP Chair Fergus Cullen, imho, made a critical tactical mistake in throwing his heft behind Horn (if the rumors and spin are to be believed). A far-right, socially conservative talk radio show host from the southern tier was not going to cut it with the rest of the district's demographics. Far better it would have been to have had Bob Clegg as the nominee, if of course Clegg showed himself to be a better candidate (he didn't), or perhaps the more moderate, Concord area primary spoiler Jim Steiner, if he could have shown a better fundraising presence.
The long and the short of it, though, is that if the GOP ever wants a chance at CD2 again, they're going to have to stop going to the Massachusetts tax refugee well like flies to honey. They will need to field someone much more moderate. And someone who understands rural and agricultural issues, alternative energy concerns, the importance of the North Country, and the newly dominant progressive voter in the Upper Valley.
Too bad Paul owns all those areas. It's a good day to be a Democrat. |
