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MN-Sen, AK-Sen: Franken, Begich favorites on Intrade

by: mikeel

Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 11:05 PM EST


At Intrade right now, Al Franken is at 57.5 and Mark Begich is at 66.8.

While the trading volumes aren't that high, it appears the bettors think they have a really good chance win when the counting is finally completed.  Nate Silver rates a Franken a "slight favorite" to win the recount (Franken is 206 votes behind).

So can we net another Senate seat?

mikeel :: MN-Sen, AK-Sen: Franken, Begich favorites on Intrade
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Franken Optimism.
  I think Franken has a much better show of winning than Begich.  The CNN exit polls had Begich losing - not the most accurate measure I know.  I just don't why I should believe that the outstanding ballots in Alaska are different from the one already counted.  No more welfare for Alaska.  No more earmarks and no more pork.  

24, Male, GA-05

Accroding to a State Senator
From Alaska on Rachel Maddow's show. 29% of the state's voters have yet to be accounted for. Plus, early ballots which account for much of the outstanding ballots, those that have been counted already skewed heavily to Begich I believe 59-37 was the number. So, there's certainly reason for optimism in both states.

[ Parent ]
AK-Sen
People playing Begich on Intrade should be getting very long odds...The Alaskan Mafia has set it up so the r's retain that seat one way or another

I've seen a couple things that should be cause for optimism on each
AK-Sen: I beleive 81,000 ballots are out, early voting, absentee, etc.  Those favor Begich like a post above says estimated 57-39.  Either way, it's easily enough to throw him over the top.  

MN-Sen: Retabulation favors D's in recent elections, and Hennepin county (Minneapolis) needs to retabulate still.  Franken could take the lead tonight or early tomorrow for that.  Then there are an estimated 6,000 ballots that were marked incorrectly that a hand count could see voter intent, and 18,000 "Under votes" for Barack that might have been the same, incorrectly marking the ballot or the individual didn't vote on the senate race.  


Hennepin was reported
Franken gained 18 votes there. Canvassing is basically finished. Now all the counties are a doing a mini-recount audit process, which will give us some clues as to where the recount may go.

http://news.postbulletin.com/n...


[ Parent ]
55-27 = 28
Is that reported online?  Earlier it was 239?... Now it's 205... Sounds close... I wonder if it has been updated to the SOS Website.  

[ Parent ]

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