A few of these races

I don't see how he sees competitive. 

PA-07 and PA-08 are both blue districts and it would have to be another 1994 for those to switch.

IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, and NC-11 are all districts that are represented by Blue Dog Democrats and fit their districts well.  They should be fine as long as they are not caught napping as Hill was. 

TX-23 was redrawn to be 61% Hispanic and it would take a miracle for a Republican to win it in its current form. 

GA-12 is nearly half black and with the higher black turnout in a Presidential year he should be fine.

PA-04 is a district that has a large Democratic voting majority and Altmire is a good fit here.  Ron Klink held on easily here for years and Altmire should be able to do the same.

NY-19 and NY-20 are both blue trending districts where the Republican Presidential nominee margins get smaller and smaller in every election.  Both of these Congresspeople are also very much involved in local projects already.  Despite a very, very strong Republican candidate, they should both be OK.

All in all, there are probably only eight seats here that they have a real shot at.

SD-AL should not be on here at all.  If Herseth was able to survive the Republican avalanche in 2004 with Bush at the top of the ticket, she should have little trouble.

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by: Sean @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 04:27:48 AM UTC

NY Seats

Both NY-19 and NY-20 are trending blue as is most of NY but I think NY-20 is the harder seat to hold.  It has a much higher R registration advantage (about 80K more Rs than Ds in 2006).  It was drawn to exclude many Dem areas around Albany and in the Catskills which were put in Mike McNulty and Maurice Hinchey's seats.  Having said that, Gillibrand is clearly very skilled and I think she is the type of politician who can hold it.  However, it will not be easy.

Hall has an easier time since his seat is closer to the city and he has pieces of Westchester and Rockland Counties which have become solidly Dem.  The Southernization of the Repub party has made it very difficult for moderate NE Repubs to compete in seats like this which is fine with me.

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by: jmnyc @ Tue Apr 03, 2007 at 12:22:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Registration in NY-20

is very decieving.  For example, this is my district and my parents are both registered Republicans.  However, the last time they voted for a Republican at the Presidential level was 1992 when they voted for George H. W. Bush.  Now they won't even think of voting Republican at any level.

This is basically the opposite of what we saw in many Southern states in the 1990's.  For example, most districts in Oklahoma and Kentucky have huge Democratic registration advantages, but it would take a miracle for a Democrat to win there.  Tom Cole's OK-04 has a 2 to 1 Democratic advantage yet he never has a reelection fight.

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by: Sean @ Tue Apr 03, 2007 at 19:46:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Karl's finally lost it.

Some of these races make absolutely no sense!  He's saying that MT gov. SCHWEITZER is vulnerable?  Is he insane?  One, the gov is immensely popular in montana, two he managed to win during bush's landslide re-election and three, there isn't a top tier republican crazy or dumb enough to run against him. 
  Two, he says VT gov douglas is vulnerable.  That too is preposterous, the gov only dropped two points, from 59-57 despite Bernie sanders winning 2/3 of the vote and peter welch winning a comfortable victory over Martha Rainville.  Even if Pro temp Shumlin or speaker Symington should run neither would have a chance.  He's a non-offensive Jeffords republican who can bring in votes from all over.  Dougie-boy's safe as safe can be. 
  As for the house, "Jindal, indicates he may retire" he's running for governor!  If he wins (Shudder) he's not going to be running for the house again, otherwise he'll cling onto that seat to keep his name alive for another chance a few years down the road.  Besides, his district is republican safe, pending redistricting. 
  Also Carol Shea Porter fails to make the top twenty, does he think NH has gone that far left, or does he know something we don't (considering 2006 and this list, I doubt it).  His numbers are of in montana again with Baucus, unless Rehburg runs.  I'd say everyone agrees that Rehburg will wait for 2012 to either challenge tester, or run for an vacant governor's seat (the lite gov is a repub, I know, but he'd probably back down to Rehburg). 
  WY-AL Cubin retiring should make the seat safe.  Unless the state's moving left faster than we realize, Cubin's the only reason it might be competitive, the congressperson's nuts.  All in all, I'd say "the wizard" is about as effective as Saruman after the fall of Sauron.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 04:32:23 AM UTC

Well, remember: you have your math.

But Karl has THE math.

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by: James L. @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 07:06:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Well . . .

this is the New Math."

~Olbermann on election night

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 14:37:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There a some GOP seats on here are a real stretch

CA-41(Lewis)
CA-52(Hunter)
LA-01(Jindal)
MI-03(Ehlers)

I don't know why he worries about these.

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by: Sean @ Thu Mar 29, 2007 at 04:44:45 AM UTC

Well

Hunter will be an open seat (announced retirement). Lewis I think corruption issues. Jindal also a good chance of an open seat. Don't know anything about Ehlers.

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by: DavidNYC @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 16:50:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ehlers

I don't live in MI-03, but I've got to think that if Ehlers runs again, he wins. Vern Ehlers is fairly popular, from what I see, and he's as moderate as any House Republicans can be these days. He's been there for a while, and Republicans have been holding the district since Gerald Ford had it.

But I remember seeing somewhere (probably at Michigan Liberal) that it took a personal appeal from President Bush to keep him from retiring in 2006. If that's true, then it's probably a good bet that he'll retire in 2008.

In an open seat race, I think the right kind of Democrat could win. But it'd be tough... West Michigan has been solidly conservative for a long time.

(Interesting fact-- Congressman Ehlers is also the only theoretical physicist in Congress. As a math major myself, and with a brother who's getting his PhD in physics-related materials science, this earns him some respect from me.)

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by: Fitzy @ Mon Apr 02, 2007 at 20:18:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A Democrat did win it

in a special election in 1974 when Ford left to become VP but he was defeated in 1976 when Ford carried the district 67-31.

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by: Sean @ Mon Apr 02, 2007 at 21:27:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hey louisianagirl ...

send me an email please ... I'd like to get you posting on my community based blog for Louisiana ...

ryan@dailykingfish.com

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by: Ryan @ Tue Apr 03, 2007 at 22:07:24 PM UTC

check your

inbox for my letter.

Learn more about Bobby Jindal.

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by: louisianagirl @ Wed Apr 04, 2007 at 03:53:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]