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The New House Map

by: James L.

Wed Nov 05, 2008 at 5:53 PM EST


Yellow for races that haven't been called (although I have a hard time believing we have any shot at all of toppling Young in Alaska) or in Louisiana's case, that haven't been held yet.

Not a bad-looking map, though.
James L. :: The New House Map
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The New House Map | 24 comments
Interesting
Only two Democratic pickups were in states McCain won.

Three of the four Republican pickups (the other being a lost cause regardless) were in states McCain won.  

I count three
AZ-01, AL-02, and ID-01.

Plus we won a bunch in states that just flipped (NM, CO, OH, VA, NC)

[ Parent ]
wow, those final Charleston
precincts that were supposed to favor Ketner, (she won the county 59-40), blasted Brown into a bigger lead than he had last time against an unknown candidate. Pathetic, he wins 60-40, and Obama probably had about the best showing any Democrat has had there since Bill Clinton or even Carter. Won diverse Charleston county, most of the district's population, by ten points, won several other rural balck counties, and actually held McCain to single digits or very low double digits in other populous, white, wealthy, suburban ocean side counties. Ketner underperformed him heavily in these areas, and failed to rack up the rural black vote as effectively.

Peirrelo is about three hundred behind now, but I'm hoping he pulls it off, I really can't stand Goode. Carmouche would have to be favored in LA-04, and I think that when the final ballots come in we will have a recount in CA-04 that will hopefully flip the seat.

Burner's toast. She's only winning outer King 51-49, and she's getting crushed 55-45 in swingish Pierce. King is about 60% reported, while Pierce is only about 33%. With Reichert already holding the bery narrow lead he should keep it all the way to victory. This district though is moving right out from under his feet, his political base has voted against him, and both counties are becoming more and more reliably Democratic. Its only a matter of time before Democrats get a good, experienced politician to beat him in more Democratic district than there is today. Maybe the next redistricting will add even more Democratic territory to his district in an attempt to get rid of him.

And thought Bachman won, Robin Hayes, who undoubtedly said the more controversial and bigoted statements, lost, and his district was won by a much better Democrat, and will be much easier to hold to.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Sorry, but...
Why didn't LA-04 and LA-02 hold a vote last night? Was it because of a late primary?
Hurricane caused them to postpone the primary to October
which pushed the LA-02 and LA-04 runoffs to November, which pushed the general elections to December.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
that thought came to me just a few minutes ago, but I wasn't sure.
[ Parent ]
I think the DCCC misspent money in a lot of places
if we would have gotten some money in AL-03 we could have won and the Republicans wouldn't have been able to defend Rogers already trying to stop Bright and Griffith.

we screwed the pooch on Dan Seals for sure

what? The DCCC
spent something like 2.8 million on Seals, actually, if my memory from last week serves me right. The site listed the total expenditures per race. I never though Seals would be able to beat Kirk.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
i meant giving that much money was screwing the pooch
i should have said the dccc. but didn't want to get too testy with them. but when you put it out there like that then that made me mad. 2.8 for 45% for a Democratic District. We need to find out why Seals did so shitty.
[ Parent ]
and what about Minnick
he actually did it, and Trauner floundered this election, as did Kilroy, (though some locals told me they didn't like her campaign to begin with). She isn't apparently that popular in Franklin Parish, where she didn't come close to Obama's numbers in order to beat Stivers. Many told me early on they were mad that her fundraising never took off and was still in the tens of thousands a year after Pryce announced her retirement. She slacked they said, thinking she was going to get a free pass then Stivers jumped back in and she never got a thing going. Another Democrat, a better campaigner, would have won this district, which continues to trend Democratic.

It looks like Peter Goldmark has narrowly won the race for Washington Ladn Commissioner, (with the rest of the ballots coming in come from mostly strong counties for him). Chris Kostner amazingly held the Missouri Attorney General spot for Democrats, and even more shockingly it looks like Democrats picked up the open Treasurer's seat, giving them all but one statewide government office.

Picked up Wisconsin, Montana, and Ohio State Houses, won the New York State Senate, but lost the Tennessee State Senate and House, lost the State Senate in Oklahoma and Montana. Another major pick up was the Nevada State Senate and a veto proof State House in Nevada. They also held Republican gains to an absolute minimum in North Carolina despite a lot of challenges and tough open seats. Arkansas elected it's first Green Party Legislature, and it looks like Democrats held on to the other 71 seats, for a total of 72 Democratic votes, a loss of just 3. Florida turned out to be a bust like always. Despite vastly fewer seats, tons of open Republican seats in vulnerable, swingish areas, the inept state party never manages to do anything about it that might result in a state legislature that's not completely one-sided. Picked up a huge State Senate Seat in South California too.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

New Mexico Democrats also ran the table in state House and Senate
From what I can tell it looks a +3 gain in the Senate and a +2 gain in the House.  We didn't lose even one seat. Redistricting looks good for 2010.
[ Parent ]
About Alaska, All is not lost...
Stevens may have eked out reelection, but the entire Senate is most definitely planning to evict his crumb bum butt after his 7 count conviction a few weeks ago. Whoever Palin replaces him with will only have perhaps a little of a year to prepare himself for a special election, which should come sometime around 2009. Begich's strong campaign will be the best prepared to run for such a contest if it comes about, so there's still a ray of hope among the clouds.

As for Don Young, I heard awhile ago during a speech at the Alaska GOP convention he said:

You need me now more than ever. To fight Obama, and Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi.

With that kind of attitude, one can expect Young to continue to make an arse of himself, being an obstructionist as Obama and the new Congress gets on with the progressive agenda needed to move the country forward. With that in mind, combined with the various scandals that continue to plague him, Young will be extremely vulnerable in 2010, either in the general or in a primary (again).

Quick Special Election
Because of the Murkowski appointment of his daughter, Alaskans passed a law requiring a quick special election in case of vacancy.  IIRC, the election had to take place in something like 90 days.  I'd think Begich is best positioned for the run.  Sean Parnell as his opponent?
[ Parent ]
OR Senate
Merkley has taken the lead!!  I expect him to eventually pull away to a fairly comfortable victory.
As do I


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Merkley now trails by about 35k
I went through a newspaper link to their state webpage.
Not sure about the percentage.
This is the link
No, try this site
The Oregonian seems to be getting updates from Multnomah County faster than the Secretary of State is; it's updated every few minutes. Smith is up by 1200 as of 4:17 pm.  
[ Parent ]
CA-44
Did I read this right? Did we almost beat Ken Calvert in Orange County, California?

What the hell happened there? Did we see that coming? Did Obama win this district. It's Riverside, isn't it? I know he won Riverside County.

Anyone down in SoCal, fill me in.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

Wow
Almost all of the California Repubs underperformed.  Calvert squeaked by, so did Bilbray, and we almost got Lungren too!  Most of their other "safe" representatives were held under 60, like McKeon, Bono, Herger, Hunter, Issa, Gallegly, Dreier, Rohrabacher, and Campbell.  And of course CA-04 is headed to a runoff.  

Most of our incumbents got over 70%.  If it wasn't for this incumbent protection map, the California delegation would look a lot more like the New York delegation.

[ Parent ]
Hopefully, there won't be such a map in 2012


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
The Hispanic vote is finally waking up.
According to the 2000 census, more than a fifth of the residents in districts represented by Gallegy, Lewis, Miller and Dreier are Hispanic.  It is more than a fourth in districts represented by McKeon and Issa and more than a third in the districts represented by Calvert and Bono Mack.  In the next redistricting, there ought to be several more districts that Hispanic candidates can win.
[ Parent ]
*correction
recount, not runoff.

And yes, it seems that the status quo is shifting in California and the Hispanic vote is finally starting to threaten the GOP's gerrymandered districts.  If things turn out right we could gain 5-10 seats in California alone when redistricting comes up.

[ Parent ]
I like seeing the blue being connected


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
The New House Map | 24 comments

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