SurveyUSA (10/30-11/2, likely voters, 10/26-27 in parentheses):
Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 52 (50)
Dino Rossi (R): 46 (48)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Right after Strategic Vision joined in the party of everyone calling the Washington governor's race a 50-48 race, along comes SurveyUSA throwing a pretty big curveball, one that shows a lot of last-minute movement to Gregoire.
As with the previous SUSA poll, Gregoire has a sizable edge with early voters, and in this poll, 72% of likely voters have in fact voted... and Gregoire leads by 8 among early voters. Rossi is tied among those who plan to vote at the polls, but that's no path to victory.
Oddly enough, the Seattle Post-Intelligencer just had a story about how early voting seems to favor Rossi, as the heaviest rates of submissions of mail-in ballots are in red counties. However, their analysis has no way of knowing what's actually on the ballots (there's no party registration or Voting Rights Act recordkeeping in Washington)... and this poll, assuming it's correct, would suggest that the red counties are going more for Gregoire than they did last time. That's especially because the state's two biggest blue counties, King and Pierce, are the only counties left that still use polling locations.
SurveyUSA also polled some downballot issues:
Attorney General: McKenna (R-inc) 59, Ladenburg 36
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Dorn (NP) 45, Bergeson (NP-inc) 37
Commissioner of Public Lands: Sutherland (R-inc) 48, Goldmark (D) 42
Initiative 985 (some Tim Eyman-sponsored crap about traffic): Yes (bad) 33, No (good) 45
Initiative 1000 (physician-assisted suicide): Yes 55, No 40 |
