What an embarassing showing

And to think of all the money we've wasted on this guy.  We can get it back though, no Republican except for Mike Castle can hold a D+5 seat in this climate.

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by: skaje @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 19:26:23 PM UTC

in that neck of the woods

There's always another Casey ready to serve.

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by: Adam B. @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 19:32:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly

Lou is gonna be a one-term wonder.  

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by: andgarden @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 19:35:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

if not he can be redistricted

with Dent, and Scranton and osme of the more Democratic areas in the northpart of the district could be put back into PA-10, while moving out the far-right ancestrally Republican central-PA counties that Republicans added in in 2002 to make it stronger for Sherwood, and which even voted for Sherwood after his scandal. That would make it a complete swing district again, and one much better suited for Carney to hold, he'd be a perfect fit for that district.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 21:13:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think we lose three seats

The fact is that when a 20-year incumbent is in the high 30s/low 40s late in the game, he's toast.  

Goners

FL-16
PA-11
TX-22

And am a bit concerned about Murtha, but I can't believe his constituents would throw away his influence.

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 19:30:47 PM UTC

You know, I'm really impressed

at how well Obama is doing in this district.

McCain doesn't have a prayer in PA tomorrow.

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by: andgarden @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 19:35:17 PM UTC

Biden grew up in the population

center of Scranton.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 21:06:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I am very well aware of that

How many votes do you suppose that drives here? I doubt many.  

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by: andgarden @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 21:30:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

i just know that many people would

vote for Obama here in Northern Louisiana if that's where Biden was from. It's local pride, and a feeling of kinship. All I know is Obama got slammed by Hillary like 3:1 here, was behind here early, and this area was used as a prime example of the areas he was struggling with, Catholic, blue collar, fairly rural, and now he's outperforming Kerry. A lot of it is Biden, part of it is the economic crisis.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 21:49:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm going to say something that's going to be unpopular here.

I think Kanjo deserves to lose.

Frankly, if the people in his district feel so strongly about illegal immigration that it will cost a popular decades long incumbent his seat, then said incumbent should have switched positions and supported the majority view in his district. Populism goes both ways -- even if it's not in the direction we'd like it to be.

 

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 19:48:54 PM UTC

I have been saying

as a New Yorker,that this is a very anti-illegal immigration district, even and especially among local Democrats. This district is populated by ex-New Yorkers who left the city because they wanted to "get away from them"

I have some friends and family in this district and while all of them are voting Obama, only a few will vote for Kanjorski. Barletta has done a great job erroneously tying economic problems in the district to illegal immigration and making people believe it.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

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by: nrafter530 @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 20:06:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

I still think we should've spent the money this seat but I'm fine with losing this one.  We can win it back.  Top House priority in 2010 in my opinion, and if we lose then, well, redistricting can be fun  :)

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by: Andrew @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 21:17:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

slightly disagree

I think Top House priority in 2010 is getting all our new freshmen re-elected. Spend big on that. Let the R's have this seat for one more cycle in 2010.
Then in 2012, redistrict Barletta out of the job.

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by: homerun @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 23:05:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

g'bye Kanjorski

My sense is that there are two things to take away from this one.  One is that the old Labor type of Democrats are going away everywhere.  The other is that illegals and more generally Latino immigration has to be dealt with fairly soon.

For Mahoney, it's that the Gingrich Era rules about mistresses and payoffs and the like are being repealed by the electorate.

Lampson...that's about who runs Texas (read: still the oil patch mafia) and abortion in a fairly rural/agrarian state.

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by: Baystater @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 19:52:52 PM UTC

Crosstabs

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

28% of Dems crossing over to vote Barletta.  That's a killer.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 20:22:31 PM UTC

We need to get rid of him quickly in 2010

run Pat Casey against him and he will win.  This is a Democratic district and there is no reason to have a Tom Tancredo representing a D+5 district.  

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by: BillNolan @ Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 21:18:59 PM UTC