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GA-Sen: Let's Get Ready to Runoff!!!

by: Crisitunity

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 1:06 PM EST


PPP (10/31-11/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Martin (D): 46
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48
Allen Buckley (L): 4
(MoE: ±2.8%)

SurveyUSA for WMAZ (10/30-11/1, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (43)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 48 (46)
Allen Buckley (L): 5 (6)
(MoE: ±3.8%)

Two new polls of the Georgia senate race seem to confirm that, unless something weird happens, neither candidate is going to clear the 50% mark and we'll be faced with a December runoff. The race has become remarkably stable in the last few weeks, with Martin never leading but almost always within a few points.

There's a fierce race at the top of the ticket, too; PPP's first poll of Georgia also finds Obama trailing only 50-48 (with Barr picking up a measly 2%), but with Obama leading 52-47 among early voters. SurveyUSA finds McCain up 52-45.

Crisitunity :: GA-Sen: Let's Get Ready to Runoff!!!
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This entire race, Chambliss has outspent Martin by over a 2-1 ratio
The only thing that gives me hope is I would expect Martin and Chambliss to spent at nearly a 1-1 ratio in a run-off, and depending on how turnout fluctuates due to the run-off scenario.  But if I had to put money down I would assume Chambliss wins a runoff.  

We'll see
I think that lack of cash may have helped Martin.  It allowed his campaign to fly under the radar and make the campaign more about Chambliss's faults than Martin's stances on the issues, that whether we like it or not are quite a bit left for GA on the whole.  

[ Parent ]
SUSA crosstasbs
here. Note also the SurveyDNA link which predicts the race should black composition of the electorate be 30%. We really need it to be about 33 to win both races outright.  

Chambliss Is Real Close
Chambliss is real close to 50 + 1 in these polls.  PPP has 2% undecided and SUSA has 3% undecided.  If they break evenly, then Chambliss is at 49-49.5% in these polls, well within MOE for topping 50%.  I've been hoping that Martin would win outright, but that may be unrealistic.  I do think, however, that Martin has a 50-50 shot in a runoff since Democrats are likely to be much more energized and can probably outspend Chambliss.


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