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R2K Compendium

by: DavidNYC

Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 8:49 PM EDT


Markos has the Daily Kos polling firehose open at full blast. Here's a quick roundup of this final set of R2K polls:

KY-Sen:

Lunsford (D): 44 (42)
McConnell (R-inc): 47 (46)

MN-Sen:

Franken (D): 40 (41)
Coleman (R-inc): 43 (39)
Barkley (I): 15 (18)

MS-Sen:

Musgrove (D): 44 (46)
Wicker (R-inc): 51 (47)

OR-Sen:

Merkley (D): 48 (47)
Smith (R-inc): 42 (41)

Bonus MN-Sen poll: An MPR/UMN poll (PDF) shows Franken leading 41-37-17. At the start of October, it was 36F-38C-14B.
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R2K Compendium | 33 comments
The KY number
Looks promising. I think if there's one state where the convention wisdom that undecideds would move en masse to the challenger holds true its KY.

In Mississippi, we have to get the African-American vote up to 39-40%, otherwise Wicker will win.

I stated earlier that I think Gordon Smith has already lost and I think the early voting numbers sugggest that's the case.

The polls have shown the MN race to be all over the place recently. I think the combination of Obama, same day registration and the timing of this clothing scandal should be enough to take Franken over the top.

I agree that the undecideds could break for Lunsford
I think he has lower unfavorables than McConnell.  
[ Parent ]
In all actuality
While we have been focusing so heavily on Martin and GA, I really think our path to 60 has a possibility with Lunsford.  I'd rather have Martin in the Senate but this run-off business does not bode well.  Good numbers for Lunsford, let's hope he pulls it off.

I don't foresee us winning MS.  However, I'm sure plenty of people will be heading to the polls not knowing who to vote in the Senate race and then since party id wont be on the ballot, I'd hope Musgrove has the better name id and should get the vote, hopefully.

My predictions
We win OR and NC and lose MS and KY. MN's the tossup but Franken's closing strongly and the Democrats are running home. Barkley is hurting Coleman. That's what I'm seeing canvassing in Minnesota. I think we're going to pull this out.  
What percentage of Democrats/Obama voters are going with Franken?
I used to worry that Barkley would hurt both candidates (as Coleman's attacks got nastier and Franken was forced to defend them). I worried that some Democrats/Independents would vote for Barkley because both alternatives were seen as "negative candidiates." Now I'm more certain of a Franken victory, but I'd like to hear a Minnesotan's perspective. I really want to win this seat back for Paul.

On another note, do you think Franken's relatively high unfavorability rating is related to this perception of him and Coleman as "negative candidates?" Or is it a result of his comedic background/view of him as a New York outsider (although Coleman's the true outsider)? What were Franken's initial unfavorables?  

[ Parent ]
Has to be
It has to be Franken's image of being an uber partisan, most of which is probably deserved.  It's the only reason I can think of since his views are very similar to that of Senator Klobuchar who always has 60%+ approvals.  Franken has written quite a few very partisan books, including one titled "Rush Limbaugh is a Big Fat Idiot" or something like that.  Things like that usually don't improve one's image.  They just make people this you're in the same league with Ann Colture and Michael Moore.
[ Parent ]
He needs a little less then 80 percent of them to win
and is getting about that. It's more like 9 out of 10 where I'm canvassing but it's in a strongly Democratic suburb.

Barkley is hurting Franken some but he's hurting Coleman more which surprised me too.

Franken's negative rating has a lot of different factors. One is the 20 million dollar smear campaign of Coleman and his allies. I'm getting 3-6 mailers a day attacking him from Republicans and their front groups. Part of it is his slightly raunchy history on SNL and the oppositions distortions of it, part of it is his books and show and the reputation he gained from that is a partisan, part of it is the "negative candidate". To be honest though I don't really get it.

And his unfavorables have probably gone down since the start. He's won over a lot of skeptics. Hopefully that's enough to carry him to victory.

[ Parent ]
Raunchy history of SNL?
Wasn't Coleman also a frequent drug user and hippie decades ago?  I thought that would have canceled out Franken's history in that department.
[ Parent ]
Yes
And he's also a slime ball.

But it's a lot harder to run a "Norm Coleman is a slime ball and a hypocrite who did drugs and was a hippe" ad then it is to run a "Al Franken's jokes, sexist, racist, DFL leaders sez they bad" ad.

Our helpful local DFLers attacked him on some of his stuff and the Republicans have found every last slightly offensive joke and made people think he spent a lifetime telling jokes like that and he's a horrible person.

Of course it's not true. But what does that matter?

[ Parent ]
Georgia runoff
Should Georgia go to runoff, I think it would help matters to get to 60 on election night.  It would completely negate the "stop the Democrat [sic] monopology on power" argument as we would already have that monopology and would strengthen our "Who would best be able to get things done for Georgia" argument: a Senator from an almost powerless party or one from the party in control of both sides of Pennsylvania Avenue.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
I could see a run-off working out for Martin
I have a hard time believing Obama's GOTV operation won't still be up at full strength to mobilize black voters and young voters for a potential run-off.  If anything the change voters will be pumped after Obama and the dems landslide wins in the general while the right will be licking their wounds after a humiliating defeat and may stay home as they did in TX-23 run-off following the 2006 general election.  I'd also imagine a large number of the libertarian voters will stay home in a run-off.
[ Parent ]
I think the worry/conventional wisdom is that
Libertarian voters would vote Republican in a runoff. But I think you're right when you say they might stay home. After all, these Libertarians are probably very excited about their local candidate Bob Barr. Chambliss will probably be seen as a vastly inferior choice, even if they weren't particularly excited about Martin. Moreover, I thought Barr had mercilessly attacked Chambliss. I can't see Libertarians going for Chambliss in huge numbers after that; staying home would probably sound good to them.  
[ Parent ]
Just want to clarify the previous statement
I realize Buckley is the Libertarian candidate for Senate, not Barr. I just think Barr will drive Georgia Libertarians to the polls on Tuesday (and they won't have that incentive in a runoff). I also thought Barr or Buckley or both had attacked the Republicans hard (i.e. Barr and Buckley voters have heard bad things about Chambliss from their candidates and wouldn't feel compelled to turn out for him in a runoff).  
[ Parent ]
For those who don't like GA's runoff system
It hasn't been entirely bad for us.  The mandatory 50% to win win a race did allow us to boot out Cynthia McKinney in her 2006 primary against Hank Johnson for GA-04.  She won her 1st round primary by 3 points but lost the run-off by a wide margin.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
only motivated people turnout for runoffs. If Obama campaigns for Martin we'll have high turnout for young voters and African Americans again, somehow I doubt the Republicans will be fired up. Libertarians won't vote.

The Democrats and the Republicans will put tons of money into this but I think that's too our advantage.

I think the runoff favors us, despite the CW.

[ Parent ]
Ah, the money!
I'm sure the Democrats will pour tons of money into this race if there's a run-off. Not sure the Repubs will be able to raise ANY money. Shameless Saxby's donors will be depleted and demoralized. The national Repub Party will be broke and depleted. The Repub's credit rating at the bank will be almost as low as the bank they borrow from (Wachovia).

Meanwhile the Democrats will be holding 58 or 59 seats in the Senate, as well as control of the House and the White House. Then K Street will rush to pay for this campaign, without even any promises of "access" needed. So I expect that money will favor the Democrats here if it comes to that. Not often that it happens that way.

[ Parent ]
Speaking of Minnesota
Can anyone explain the background of this ad?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

And why Coleman even has any support in making lies right in front of camera, and next to his wife?

Omg, it's such bullshit
check out mnpublius.com

I've gotten the gist of it but apparently Coleman was all caught up in this Stevens scandal and apparently his wife got funneled $75,000 secretly for whatever reason.  So, of course you have to bring his wife into this, she's the one who got the illegal money!  But MN voters wont know that.

Stupid slime prick.

[ Parent ]
Inouye STILL backs Stevens...
I know Inouye and Stevens are friends, but this is shameful.  Stevens has been convicted on every single count and is now a felon.  So not only does Inouye still believe he's innocent, he thinks the guy will get re-elected?!?!?!  Shame on Senator Inouye for this.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

Dem. Inouye: Stevens will return

ANCHORAGE-In an unusual move, one of the Senate's most senior Democrats is lending his name to the embattled reelection bid of its longest-serving Republican.

Hawaii's Daniel K. Inouye, a Democrat, in a statement issued by the campaign of Alaska's Ted Stevens, a Republican and longtime friend, answers criticism from Stevens' Democratic opponent and predicts Stevens will win reelection Tuesday and later be exonerated on an appeal of last week's verdict finding him guilty of hiding gifts.


No secret Inouye is buddies with Stevens
If Stevens loses, Inouye would too.  I think he was betting on another six years or so with Stevens and he hasn't come to terms with that yet.  He hosted a fundraiser with Stevens too.  Anyone surprised here had to have missed that.  
[ Parent ]
Inouye goes too* by retiring.

[ Parent ]
Ed Case
if Inyoue doesn't retire,  I'd be more than happy to send Ed Case up against him in a primary to teach him a lesson real quick.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions
[ Parent ]
I disagree
Inouye's firendship and defense of Stevens may infuriate some. But when it comes to the issues, Inouye is leaps and bounds better than Case.
[ Parent ]
Ick
I can't think of anything worse. It's like if Joementum got primaried by Al Wynn.
[ Parent ]
Hell no
We don't need a conservative Dem like Case representing a state like HI.  We can do MUCH better.
[ Parent ]
what are we going to do
when he retires, which we assume if Stevens.  Although, high Senate seniority accounts for a lot and he may be enjoying the majority.

but anywho, what are we going to do against lingle if she runs?  hirono already got beat by her once before.  lingle is popular.  Ed Case totally sucks and will run but if he can win, well....

[ Parent ]
Hirono lost to Lingle
In a Gov. race, a Senate race is a totally different dynamic. Lingle could play the "I provide balance" card during a Gov. race, but in a Senate race, she has to allign herself with the likes of Mitch McConnell(if he's still around) and others like him and take stances on issues like Iraq.
[ Parent ]
true
there are a lot of unpopular positions she'll have to come out for.  Then Hirono all the way.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe not
There's probably a good chance Case runs for the open Governor's race instead of a potential open Senate seat.
[ Parent ]
Don't love it but
the guy is a Congressional Medal of Honor winner, and he has been a good Democrat for a very long time.  Given his long friendship with Stevens, I'll let it slide.  I don't share Kos' more militant view of Inuoye's support for Uncle Ted.  
[ Parent ]
I'm well aware of Inouye's history
He's a national hero and a solid progressive.  In the end his backing of Stevens won't mean a thing, Stevens is about to get the boot regardless.  I just think he crossed the line here.  

Ted Stevens was also a WWII vet with plenty of distinguished combat experience, but it doesn't excuse criminal conduct late in his life.

[ Parent ]
If this was
Going to somehow save Stevens, I might agree with you. But Stevens is going down anyway, so I think its kind of futile to get angry with one of our better Senators over something like this.
[ Parent ]
Life expectancy and hate
I don't want to waste a lot of psychic energy getting mad at a couple of octogenarians. I want to invest my lifelong lust for revenge on someone likely to live long enough to appreciate it when his whole life is reduced to ashes.

Now, lessee, George W Bush, for example, is only 62; Karl Rove is a youngster at 58. I'm wishing them both decades of well earned misery, ridicule, humiliation, disgrace, and popular abuse. The World War II vets, nevermind.

[ Parent ]
R2K Compendium | 33 comments

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