This was inevitable

Republicans were eventually going to start coming home here, just like I expect Democrats have started coming home in PA-11.  

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by: BillNolan @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 00:13:48 AM UTC

Republicans not the issue, indies are

As Kos noted, GOPers went from 65-14 two weeks ago to 72-21 today, so the undecided who decided split evenly.  The problem is independents, which Gary won 71-29 in 2006, and is now winning just 53-41.  He has to put up a bigger margin with them to win here.  Unfortunately, Lummis is not (yet) as hated as Barbara Cubin.

One other issue, this one might play into Gary's favor: this poll does not include the libertarian candidate.  In 2006, the libertarian got 4 percent and I think he will get this number again Tuesday.  These are voters that could come out of Lummis' pocket, most likely.

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 00:29:13 AM UTC

If HERBERT is the Liberterian,

he was included - he got 2% of the vote.

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by: sulthernao @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 00:40:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good catch

I didn't see that.  Glad they added him.  And in answer to his presence: Damn!

I still like Gary's chances.

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 00:55:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Trauner is closing the gap slowly

But as Andy notes, Trauner needs to do better with indies.  But that current margin is too small for that indie margin, isn't it?  In which case, that might mean he's overperforming 2006 among either Dems or Repubs (or both).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 00:38:04 AM UTC

R+19 just too big a hurdle

We don't have any Democrats representing a district that Republican. We have two representing R+17 districts, and one of those (Lampson) may be in trouble.

Gary's a great candidate, but the deck is stacked against him here and Obama does not have coat-tails in this state.

The DCCC has put money into several districts that are more than R+10, and I expect us to lose all of them (except maybe OH-02).

Again I regret that we've seen no independent expenditures in D+0 IA-04, where Obama will have big coat-tails.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:35:22 AM UTC

ID-01

is R+19, and I think we'll make it over the hurdle there. Although that's purely because Bill Sali is a frickin' idiot, and Minnick will be in a lot of danger in 2010 if he's elected, assuming the Idaho Republicans come up with someone less brain-damaged.

I guess it's cold comfort at this point, but for what it's worth, now that the DCCC is jumping in on NJ-05 and FL-18, I think Greenwald is the best shot left at a pickup where the DCCC isn't getting involved, so I'm on board with you there. Well, maybe she can be this season's Carol Shea-Porter.

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by: Crisitunity @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 01:51:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

unfortunately

Greenwald hasn't run a grassroots-enough campaign to win the way Shea-Porter won.

If she wins it will be primarily because of Obama's coat-tails rather than her own campaign's efforts.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 12:00:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

IN-03 too

Also, Lampson's district is only R+15.

What's more important than the PVI is probably the partisan strength of the voters.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 02:07:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We have a few heavily R seats in play

The seats at R+10 or worse we could win:
AL-02 - R+13
AK-AL - R+14
ID-01 - R+19
KY-02 - R+13
MD-01 - R+10
IN-03 - R+16
OH-02 - R+13
SC-01 - R+10
TX-07 - R+16
TX-10 - R+13
WY-AL - R+19

The only seats I think we're going to win from the list are AL-02, AK-AL, ID-01 and maybe MD-01, one or both the Texas seats and IN-03 if we're lucky.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 05:32:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not a huge difference between R19 and R17...

Just ask Matheson, who represents the LEAST republican of Utah's three districts at R +17. I think Gary will pull it off.

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by: Fix Utah Blue @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 06:47:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Still think this is a tossup

and I can't decide which way to call it. I'm leaning towards calling it for Lummis beacuse of the Republican lean but Trauner outperforms polls and might pull off a upset so I'm not quite sure.  

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by: Populista @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 03:13:33 AM UTC

It's a Presidential year in an R+19 district

I'm not holding my breath, but if Gary loses I hope he's still viable in the future as a candidate for other statewide office.

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by: unertl @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 04:07:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Gary loses another close one, is he viable for Gov-2010?

Gov. Dave is term-limited, so the seat is open, and if he does lose, I have to believe it will be very tight again.  With that in mind, I think he would be a strong contender for governor as Wyomingites have had no problem sending Democrats to Cheyenne.  But does anyone think he might be ridiculed and pushed down a peg with back-to-back losses on his resume?

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 04:38:57 AM UTC

Probably a decent chance

We don't have much of a bench in WY and Freudenthal doesn't seem to have an obvious successor, so it could be Trauner.  Convincing WY voters to allow him to run the state would be much easier than convincing them to send him to D.C.

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by: ChadInFL @ Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 05:34:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]