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AK-Sen, AK-AL: End of the Line

by: Crisitunity

Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 2:36 PM EDT


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/28-30, likely voters, 10/14-16):

Mark Begich (D): 58 (48)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 36 (46)
(MoE: ±4%)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 53 (50)
Don Young (R-inc): 44 (44)
(MoE: ±4%)

Ted Stevens and Don Young have a combined 75 years of congressional seniority, but it looks like Alaskans are poised to blow that up and start over. Most notably, Stevens' conviction accounted for a 20-point swing since the previous poll two weeks ago. But some of the spirit of cleaning-house seems to have even transferred over to Berkowitz, whose numbers jumped a little as well.

McCain still has a big advantage at the presidential level, 58-39, but this poll also sees Sarah Palin's favorables dropping back to somewhat earthbound levels (65-35) after two months of constant airing of her dirty laundry.

Crisitunity :: AK-Sen, AK-AL: End of the Line
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man
great numbers. Turning 2/3s of Alaska's Congressional delegation blue. what a year!

Why are Palin's approval ratings still so high?
I know Alaska is a Republican state, but that 65% is ridiculous. She has completely embarassed her constituents.  

So
That is officially 5 right off the bat plus OR which is heavily leaning our way and NC which is slightly so.  MN is a toss-up and Georgia and Kentucky are Lean Rep, MS is probably a likely Rep and the rest aren't going to happen barring a huge wave that sweeps all of the above into office easily and we are onto Texas, and Maine.

We really didn't gain any in 2006 that were total shockers, we knew we could win all 6 of those.  In big huge wave years, like 1980, how many shocker losses were there?


In 1980
I dont think anyone expected Herman Talmadge to lose in Georgia, or Jeremiah Denton to win in Alabama, or Al D'Amato to win in New York.  In 1986, when Democrats won by back the Senate by an unexpectedly large margin, both Wyche Fowler in Georgia, Richard Shelby in Alabama, and Terry Sanford in North Carolina were all behind by double digits in pre-election polls but ended up winning narrow victories because of much higher than expected black turnout.  

[ Parent ]
D'Amato
He only won because it was a three-way race including the former Senator he beat in the primary running as an independent and siphoning off mostly Dem votes.  Even with that he only beat the Democratic canidate by like 2%.

[ Parent ]
But he was not expected to win
Almost everyone expected the Democrat(Holtzman?) to win.  

[ Parent ]
Madnuson's loss was also a shocker


[ Parent ]
I think VA broke in August
Virginia only came into play after Allen macacaed his chances.  

[ Parent ]
Magnuson
I dont think anyone expected him to lose either.

biggest 1980 Senate upset
biggest 1980 Senate upset would have to be John East beating incumbent moderate Democrat Robert Morgan of North Carolina. Jesse Helms directly played a role in this upset.

Church losing in Idaho
was also probably an upset.  

[ Parent ]
Republicans may have gained 12 seats in 1980
But all but one (SD-McGovern) were decided by single-digits.  They were basically all close races that broke for republicans, probably due to Reagan's landslide.

The republican Senate gains were almost certainly helped by the fact that three Dem incumbents lost party primaries.


[ Parent ]
There have been other upsets as well
In 1992, Democrat Terry Sanford of North Carolina had a healthy lead in polls but ended up losing by five points.  

[ Parent ]
I believe 1994 had a few
Due to the unexpected size of the republican wave I believe Santorum's defeat of Wofford in PA was a surprise.  Same with the relatively unknown Bill Frist's landslie win over Senator Sasser in TN by a 57-43 margin.

[ Parent ]

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