Outlier

Mason-Dixon has definitely been leaning right this year.  Excluding this finding, look at the last 11 polls of this race:

46-44 Chambliss (SUSA, 9/28-9/29)
45-44 Chambliss (R2K, 9/29-10/01)
47-44 Chambliss (Strategic Vision, 10/5-10/7)
50-44 Chambliss (Rasmussen, 10/7)
45-45 Tie (Insider Advantage, 10/9)
46-43 Chambliss (SUSA, 10/11-10/12)
47-45 Chambliss (R2K, 10/14-10/15)
46-44 Chambliss (Strategic Vision, 10/20-10/22)
47-45 Chambliss (Rasmussen, 10/22)
44-42 Chambliss (Insider Advantage, 10/23)
46-44 Chambliss (Insider Advantage, 10/27)

Altogether, the average is almost exactly 46-44.  Mason-Dixon here really undervalues Martin's support, so I don't buy it. Though we may well be in runoff territory.

---

by: Andy Dufresne @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 16:43:28 PM UTC

Agreed

According to 538, Mason-Dixon's Republican lean is worth about 1-2 points. Apply that and this poll is right in the range of SUSA, Rasmussen, etc.

Students for a New American Politics: the largest student-run PAC in the country. Check us out at snappac.org/blog

---

by: Angel Eyes @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 17:31:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mason Dixon

Mason Dixon has really been far to the right of other posters this cycle.  I did a quick check of RCP and here  is their last poll for certain states listed first and the current RCP average listed second.  I only checked battleground states and if they didn't have a recent poll I didn't list it.

NC Tie O+2.5
MO M+1 O+0.2
OH M+1 O+5.8
VA O+2 O+6.5
PA O+4 O+9.5
FL M+1 O+3.5
GA M+6 M+4.2

---

by: sicembears @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 19:51:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Speaking of 538 and GA-SEN

Nate had a brief post this morning about how in most of these polls there's a high percentage of undecideds among African-Americans and this could point to Martin having 2-3 points more than he is in the polls.

Its impossible to know how this race will transpire because we don't know what African-American turnout will be. In 2004, it was 25% and most of the polls have it between 25-27%. But early voting has it at 35%, now it obviously won't stay that high, but if it's at 30-31% I think Martin has to be considered the favorite.

---

by: safi @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 17:45:39 PM UTC