Here's the

current Pollster composite, with today's Rasmussen taken into account: Franken 39, Coleman 36, Barkley 15.

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by: Crisitunity @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 23:38:02 PM UTC

Same day registration

That along with Obama's cottails should pull Franken over the finish line.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 23:47:00 PM UTC

A few Idaho polls

Never heard of this pollster, but the numbers are similar to what SUSA showed for ID-01, so maybe these numbers are legit.

http://images.dailykos.com/ima...

Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (pdf) 10/19-22.
Likely voters. MoE ±4.4%

ID-Sen
Risch (R) 45
LaRocco (D) 33

ID-01
Sali (R-Inc) 41
Minnick (D) 48

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Oct 29, 2008 at 23:49:35 PM UTC

Coleman Got His Mojo....

.....from a couple things.  The Minneapolis Star Tribune endorsed Coleman.  While newspaper endorsements rarely move the needle, when a paper with a left-wing reputation like the Strib endorses Coleman, it probably gives pause to some soft Franken supporters that this guy is "REALLY out in left field".

Furthermore, Barkley's numbers are sliding.  Every since Barkley became a double-digit factor in this race, my contention is that Barkley needs to remain in that 15-19% window if Franken was gonna win.  Barkley's now below 15%....and my assumption seems to be bearing fruit.

This sample Rasmussen poll has a Presidential sample showing Obama leading by 12, so it's not a disagreeable polling sample.  With that in mind, my confidence about Franken's chances is diminishing.

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by: Mark @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 00:03:41 AM UTC

third-party candidates

usually poll better than they perform on election day.

If Barkley was drawing more from Coleman than from Franken, then it makes sense that Coleman would gain more as voters get real and recognize that Barkley is not viable.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 02:11:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Do they really?

I guess Jesse Ventura was a big exception then.  Same day registration probably does ad to the unpredictably of Minnesota races.  I have a feeling we may see a surge in same-day young voters who will vote for Obama/Franken.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 02:14:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That Is Usually True.....

....and appears to be where the race is going here, with Barkley's poll numbers slipping below 15% for the first time in months.  The crosstabs I saw suggested Barkley was getting more Democratic votes than Republican, but Franken's profile is such that it doesn't necessarily mean he benefits from Barkley shedding Democratic voters.  They could simply be going Coleman.

What intrigues me most about this race is where the candidates' respective votes are coming from.  Is Franken being decimated outside the metro area and the Iron Range?  The county returns from this race should be among the most intriguing in the nation.

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by: Mark @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 03:16:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obama needs to get to Minnesota

and campaign for Franken NOW.  Getting 60 seats is much more imporant than winning a North Carolina or Missouri at the Presidential level.  

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by: BillNolan @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 00:19:16 AM UTC

There's a rally with Pres. Clinton

and Sen. Klobuchar tomorrow. I'm hoping it will be very effective.

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by: wpa1984 @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 00:41:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Almost as good

Both Klobuchar and Hillary should be able to fire up the base.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 00:42:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Awesome

That is great!

"Keep the Faith"

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by: blue south @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 00:46:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That should certainly help

We need this seat.  

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by: BillNolan @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 00:46:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obama should pull us over the finish line here

If not, we have no one to blame but Franken.  

Incidentally, has Rasmussen had a good poll for Democrats this year?  I know I am exaggerating and they're awesome, but man it seems like they really like to throw good water on Democratic prospects in a many, many races that don't seem as bad for us.  

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 00:24:24 AM UTC

was there anyone better

the Dems could have run?

It would be a terrible waste for us to fail to beat Coleman in a huge Democratic wave, especially if Obama wins MN by 10 points or more.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 02:12:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Absolutely

I'm convinced Betty McCollum would not only have won but won by a solid margin of 5+ points.  There are probably a half dozen candidates who would have performed better than Franken.  I'm not bashing Franken, he's a decent candidate and I like the guy.  Just stating what I believe to be the facts.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 02:16:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Betty McCollum

She would have won this easily.  It would have been a double-digit win considering Coleman's vulnerability.  Unfortunately, she didn't want to leave the House and I have no idea how hard Chuck pushed her.  I never loved Franken the candidate, but I like Franken the man and I think he will win.  But if and when he does win, it will be because of Obama.

And to those people who say that Franken can't win re-election, let's not be resigned just yet or worry about that now.  Furthermore, I really don't agree.  I am sure that in 1990, a lot of people thought the great Paul Wellstone was going to be a one-termer.  Man, I wish he was still alive.  

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by: Andy Dufresne @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 02:19:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

As Crisit says below

T-Paw may be looking for something to do come 2014.  He will either be coming off a third term as governor, have come off of a failed presidential run in 2012 or be the nominee and lose, or lose the gubernatorial in 2010.  I'd say any of those positions qualifies him to beat Franken in the Senate race.  I dont see how Franken could win against him.

But we'll see.  We'll worry about 2014 once we get win this seat on Tuesday.  

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by: Andrew @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 02:57:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wellstone Got Lucky in 96.

He got to run against Rudy Boschwitz, the same imbecile who in 1990 squandered the highest approval rating of every Senator in the nation to lose to a college professor from small-town Minnesota.  If anything, Boschwitz' 1996 race was a bigger comedy of errors than his 1990 fiasco.  Wellstone would have been vulnerable in 96 against a competent opponent.  He was better positioned in 2002 to take on the top-tier candidate Coleman.  I would have really loved to have seen how that race had closed if Wellstone had lived.

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by: Mark @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 03:20:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No

At least not who expressed any interest in running.

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by: sicembears @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 03:12:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, to their credit

They were putting out a slew of polls that were unexpectedly favorable to us, including that KY-Sen poll way back when that showed Lunsford leading McConnell 49-44.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 21:24:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Woah, that's a huge turnaround in 1 week.

Scott bullshitted his way through a plausbile explanation for the switch though. Message to Mr. Rasmussen: No one except for political geeks like me and hard partisians watch Senate debates.

I think it's a toss-up at this point. However, if I had a gun to my head and could only choose either Merkley or Franken, I'd choose Merkley without hesitation. If he wins this time, the seat is his until he dies or retires. Franken is going to have an incredibly hard time getting re-elected.  

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by: Tyler Oakley @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 00:27:18 AM UTC

Good point

T-Paw may be casting around for something to do in 2014. Compare that with Oregon, where, other than Smith, the bench of Republicans who can play successfully at the statewide level is basically empty right now.

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by: Crisitunity @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 00:51:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP will have a new MN-Sen Poll out Late Tonight

This sounds like good news for Franken coming late tonight in a new PPP poll:

https://www.blogger.com/commen...

Tom Jensen said...
Well I'd say probably the most important thing in this set of polls is the Minnesota Senate race, and although we will not have final numbers until this evening, I do not think the Mason Dixon and Rasmussen polls released there over the last 24 hours are correct.

October 30, 2008 2:43 PM

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by: bear83 @ Thu Oct 30, 2008 at 20:58:48 PM UTC