Google Ads


Site Stats

GA-Sen: On Track for a Runoff

by: Crisitunity

Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 8:01 PM EDT


Insider Advantage (10/27, likely voters, 10/23 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 44 (42)
Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 46 (44)
Other: 2 (2)
(MoE: ±3.8%)

Say what you will about this race, it's consistent. While nobody has shown an actual lead for Jim Martin, almost every poll in the last few weeks has shown him 2 points back, or thereabouts.

With such a close race, and with Libertarian Allen Buckley consistently gobbling up a few points, it's starting to look likelier and likelier that Chambliss will fall slightly shy of the 50% mark. With Lunsford a few points short and Musgrove starting to dwindle, it's looking like the question of whether or not we break 60 seats may well turn on a December runoff election in Georgia.
Crisitunity :: GA-Sen: On Track for a Runoff
Tags: , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
GA-Sen: On Track for a Runoff | 36 comments
If Martin wins the race
and assuming that we win VA, NM, CO, NH, OR, AK, NC, and MN, we will have our 60 seats.  What will the Democrats do in regards to Joe Lieberman?  I'm not a fan of Lieberman, but do we keep him in the caucus or do we kick him out and allow the GOP to take our 60th seat?

Politics make strange bedfellows.  I will say this, having Musgrove lose doesn't bother me all that much.  He's very conservative, about the only type of Democrat that can win Mississippi in a statewide election.  I could see Musgrove being a major thorn within the Democratic Caucus.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Take away his chairmanship.
  Let him leave the party himself.  It will be hilarious to see him leave a party which just won the presidency and large majorities in Congress.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
If Lieberman Is Punished
I think he'll have little choices anyway. I mean, it's not likely he'll run again, and to end his career having switch to the GOP is not a good way to go especially if they're in the minority.

Although, Lieberman may just do it out of spite to deny the Democrats 60 seats, leaving them with like 59 or something.

[ Parent ]
Good idea
To take away his chairmanship.  I think Joltin Joe is with us on almost all issues except for foreign policy.  He fits more in line with the Dems.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Lieberman is with us quite a bit
He'll be with us on domestic issues more often than not.  It's only on foreign policy that he breaks ranks frequently, and he won't have as many opportunities to once Obama is Commander in Chief.
[ Parent ]
Two Points
First, voting to stop a filibuster is unlike voting for majority leader in that there's no guarantee of party unity on either side and every vote will be unique with different alliances.  So, the 60 Democrat magic number is really more symbolic than real.  Every additional Democratic Senator is important, but there's nothing special about 60 Democrats--there's only something special about 60 senators willing to vote cloture on any particular issue.  In that sense, whether we have 58, 59, 60, or 61 Democratic Senators, getting Lieberman's vote is potentially the difference on any cloture vote.

Second, whether we kick Lieberman out of the caucus or not, will likely not affect how he votes on most filibusters.  If it's a domestic question, he'll likely vote with the Democrats.  If it's foreign, he'll likely vote with the Republicans.  If you kick him out, he might, just maybe, be more inclined to vote with the Republicans on a particular issue.  But, for most he's gonna do what he's gonna do no matter what happens between him and the caucus.

Personally, I'm inclined to strip him of his chairmanship and kick him out of the caucus.  He certainly did the party no favors in failing to investigate Bush malfeasances in the last two years and I don't think he'll do the Obama administration any favors as chair of Homeland Security.  It also makes clear that he's not part of the party so that republicans cannot use him as effectively to say there is bipartisan support for their positions or candidates.  Finally, there should be adverse consequences for campaigning against Obama and the things he's said; perhaps the next Lieberman will think twice before doing the same.

[ Parent ]
Big pro and con for a run-off
If this is the seat that would put us at 60, we would face a VERY hard time to win, as the GOP would put that right in front of the Georgia voters.  Given an Obama win, they would likely vote for divided government.  

The biggest issue is Obama himself.  If he goes all in to get Jim Martin the W, then Martin has his best shot.  We will need Obama engaged.  The problem is that he might be nervous getting too involved, because if he does and Martin still loses, Obama's caches takes a hit before he even takes office.  I hope he doesn't feel that way, but I guarantee you his people will be thinking about it.  

One idea
that I've been mulling over is that if we find ourselves at 59, perhaps Obama should pull a moderate blue-state Republican out of the Senate and drop them into one of the less important Cabinet positions (like how Spitzer and Strickland cut down GOP margins in their legislatures). The most intuitive selection, I suppose, would be take Olympia Snowe and put her in Commerce, and let Gov. Baldacci appoint Tom Allen (or himself) to the empty Senate seat. Voila, you're at 60, and you've gotten to burnish your bipartisan credentials along the way.

So I guess in this Georgia runoff scenario, the question is, if Obama is at 59 prior to the Georgia runoff, should he pull the trigger on appointing Snowe (or, gack, Collins) to the Cabinet and take the whole 'stop them from getting 60' issue off the table in Georgia by virtue of already being at 60? That would defuse the best GOP argument... although conversely it might limit Democratic enthusiasm for going all in on Martin (which then could get us to 61, and the Lieberman-less promised land).

[ Parent ]
Interesting idea
If I were advising Obama, I would tell him to wait to do that until after the run-off.  Go all out on that first.  I think we will be able to easily out-fundraise the dead and depleted NRSC.  And if Obama were to hold a fundraiser, Martin would probably have more than Chambliss!  

I really believe that if Obama went all-in here and made the race his first political mission, he could get Martin the win.  It won't be easy, especially if we are at 59, but it is worth it.  

In terms of your cabinet idea, it is sad that there will literally be one Senator left who we could consider.  I think Specter is too old to leave or join the cabinet, and Collins is more partisan.  Literally, with Coleman and Smith losing, the Senate GOP, like the House, will be nearly all right-wingers.  

[ Parent ]
Collins
my money is on her running for Governor when Baldacci is up in 2010.  that was her first ambition, and she has never really gotten over losing in 1994.
[ Parent ]
It's worth considering
Although I think there's a chance Snowe might switch parties.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
It's possible
If there were one party switcher I think Snowe is the most likely.  She could get away with it and still cruise to re-election in the future if she wanted to.
[ Parent ]
Snowe would never switch
as a Mainer, its clear that she is devoted to the old New England Republican ideal.  She personally believes it is her responsibility to hold onto this ideal and to try to bring the Republicans back to the center.

Not to mention, her deceased husband was a Republican US Congressman and her current husband is a former Republican Governor of Maine.

Maybe she would accept a cabinet position, just not sure which one.  maybe labor.

[ Parent ]
I agree
I mean, what does Commence really do? The least he can do is offer it to her and she might at the very least be happy about it and vote with us more often.
[ Parent ]
Snow (or other) in the Cabinet
If there is no winner (above 50%) on Tuesday, I think there is virtually no chance that Martin could/would win a run-off.  GA remains a very conservative state.  Also this is not a matter of money.  By the time a run-off would occur, the dust would settle and Repubs would focus on a stop-Obama-Pelosi-Reid campaign.  Also a special and/or run-off election typically has fewer voters than does a standard presidential election.  I just don't think Martin can win a run off.

Crisitunity's idea strikes me as one of only two viable ones.  The only other would be to defeat Chambliss on Tuesday with an over 50% vote.  To accomplish that, the DSCC would need to jump in with both feet PDQ.

As for 61 unless either KY or MS turns around, I think this would have to wait until 2010 unless some Repub can be induced to jump the fence.  

[ Parent ]
If we somehow won the IN Governorship
I'd highly recommend nominating Dick Lugar to a cabinet position.  He's very knowledgable on foreign policy and universally respected by democrats and republicans alike.  

Grassley (IA) is another possibility.  With the right job offer he would probably consider a cabinet appointment.

[ Parent ]
Grassley
might like to do Agriculture. Talk about putting the fox (Archer Daniels Midland, in this case) in charge of the henhouse, though.
[ Parent ]
I'm Skeptical About Your Idea
First, I would not want Obama to compromise his administration.  He needs people in place who are competent, team players, and sympathetic to whatever policies Obama pushes for the particular department.

Second, would any Republican Senator want to serve in the Obama administration, especially if we're talking about a lower profile cabinet position?  It would need to be a department he or she had some expertise and interest in.

Third, I would think there would be lots and lots of pressure on any Republican Senator who would be replaced by a Democrat NOT to resign.  It would probably need to be someone with no further elective ambitions.

Not a bad idea if there were a good fit, but I cannot think of anyone off the top of my head.

[ Parent ]
some who would accept cabinet positions
Grassley would gladly take the head of Treasury if offered (not that he's a good choice).  He hates the minority.

Judd Gregg is also a potential Cabinet pick.  

[ Parent ]
Sure, agree somewhat on all three
One problem with a GOPer at Commerce is that Commerce oversees the Census Bureau, and I don't really want a Republican in charge of the 2010 census.

Snowe is ranking member on Small Business, and also on Commerce, so that's her area of expertise. It's kind of a Cabinet backwater, though, so yeah, it might be too small potatoes for her to want to leave the prestige of the Senate, especially if she feels like she's better served to be the last voice of sanity as the Senate GOP drives off the cliff.

[ Parent ]
If Jill Long Thompson
Had a snowball's chance in hell of winning, this could be a scenario I see. Obama and Dick Lugar get along great and I could see Obama appointing him to be Sec. of State and have JLT put someone in that seat.

I seriously question whether Olympia Snowe would leave the Senate to be commerce secretary or secretary of the interior.

[ Parent ]
I would be
extremely pleased with Lugar as SoS as long as he adheres to Obama's policies.  But that is a solid Republican choice for a good cabinet position.  Can JLT pull it off...  ::sigh::  Wonder who she would pick then to fill the seat, Ellsworth?

Obama should almost just pick Lugar anyway, bi-partisan and deservedly.  He'd have two of the best foreign policy experts guiding him.

[ Parent ]
Not Likely to Happen
I was pushing this idea a week ago, but read somewhere recently that Lugar has said he would not leave the Senate to take a spot with the Obama administration.  Perhaps that's just talk and he'll change his mind after the election, but it didn't sound like it.
[ Parent ]
Martin won't win a runoff
All those Libertarian voters will probably fall back to Chambliss. But, assuming Martin can somehow appeal to that vote and President-elect Obama comes down to Georgia for one last campaign stop (that'll be outrageous, wonder if McCain will come stump for Saxby), Martin may have a slim chance.
I agree
Part of the reason he's doing so well thus far seems to be the fact that many in GA don't know how liberal he is because this race is flying under the radar.  If it goes to a run-off the voters will be well aware.
[ Parent ]
Especially If Obama makes an appearance
I just realized this.
[ Parent ]
Similar thing to what I said about SC-01
Stop making a big deal of it, basically.

Well, personally, I haven't actually checked out Martin's positions, and political opinion isn't something that can be easily confirmed or denied (like sexuality).  Though, given that second part of my last sentence (that opinion isn't easily confirmed/denied), it's all about the perception of it.  A rather liberal or conservative politician can be painted as moderate, a moderate can be painted as liberal or conservative, with a heavy paint job.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
The runoff is going to be insane
I wouldn't be at all surprised if each side spends 10 million just during the runoff period. Biz groups will do everything beacuse that will be the 60th vote for EFCA and they could probably pick one one Dem or Specter. And Obama and the Dems will go all out for the same reasons, we want 60 votes.
The argument I hope Martin would make in the runoff
"Who do you think can better get things done for Georgia?"

Saxby Chambliss doesn't have much seniority and will be in a very weak minority caucus in which his party is also in a very weak position in the House and out of power in the White House.  Replacing Chambliss with Martin gives Georgians a voice within the party that's in power.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

I don't think seniority and caucus power are huge bonuses
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I doubt that seniority and caucus power are that big of issues with people.  I mean, people probably see them as nice perks but only minor reasons to vote for a certain candidate.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
You have to make it one
The Republicans are going to trot out their "stop the Democrat [sic] monopoly on power."  You have to fight back.  Make sure the people know that a Martin will more likely have the ear of Obama and the Senate leadership and can thus get more things done that Chambliss could, especially considering his partisan nature.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
DSCC new ad on Saxby's Sugar Connections
That's not an ad.
That's a 2:14 minute web video.
[ Parent ]
it's still an Ad technically
it's not going up on the air, but it's quite a slam at Sugar Saxby
There's a fine difference between the two, that's why James is making the distinction
So no, it isn't an ad.  It isn't going to hit the Atlanta media market at all.  
[ Parent ]
what's the point of these videos?
how many people will see them?

i'm sure they will use part of this for a 30-sec ad though right?

[ Parent ]
GA-Sen: On Track for a Runoff | 36 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox