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SC-01, SC-02, NC-10: Southern Discomfort (for the GOP)

by: Crisitunity

Sun Oct 26, 2008 at 2:35 AM EDT


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):

SC-01

Linda Ketner (D): 37
Henry Brown (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±5%)

SC-02

Rob Miller (D): 35
Joe Wilson (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4.9%)

NC-10

Daniel Johnson (D): 37
Patrick McHenry (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±5%)

If a year ago... or heck, even a month ago... you'd told someone that we'd be looking at dyed-in-the-wool dark-red southern districts like SC-01, SC-02, or NC-10 as being potentially competitive, derisive laughter would have been the proper response.

Well, here we are talking about them. While these numbers don't suggest that the GOP is likely to lose any of them, these districts shouldn't even be up for discussion. Consider that these districts are R+10, R+9, and R+15, and imagine the mirror image, which would be, say, the Democrats having to sweat the loss of MA-06, NY-04, and MA-01 while watching more precarious seats slip away from them.

The only race of the three that's within the single digits is the suddenly very-interesting SC-01 race between incumbent Henry Brown (at this point, probably best known for his lack of fire safety skills) and businesswoman and philanthropist Linda Ketner in this Charleston-based district. The idea of a Deep South district (although this Lowlands district is less evangelical than the stereotypical southern district) electing not just a progressive but an openly lesbian representative is nothing short of mind-boggling, but with the DCCC jumping in and Ketner able to self-finance too, it can't be ruled out.
Crisitunity :: SC-01, SC-02, NC-10: Southern Discomfort (for the GOP)
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SC-01, SC-02, NC-10: Southern Discomfort (for the GOP) | 26 comments
Keep going
There's a Democratic surge across the South.

Right across the river from Linda Ketner's SC-01 is GA-01 with a PVI R+13. There Bill Gillespie is challenging reichtwinger Jack Kingston, and the Democrat got more votes in the primary than the incumbent did in his. Registration and early voting is looking good in this part of Georgia, too. But nobody is polling there, so we can all safely assume that it's a Repub lock and ignore it ... or maybe not?

Not to be a debbie downer
But 11%, 12%, and 15% are a lot of percentages to make up a week before the election when the other guy only needs 3%-0% to get over 50%.  

In 2006, SC-1 was 60%-35% blowout
SC-2 63%-37%
NC-10 62%-38%

As you can see where the undecideds go really dictates if we gain any ground from 2006 in these districts.  Unfortunately, I really dont see us gaining many more percentage points in any of these races and the little bit that we do gain can probably be chalked up to increased AA voters which reflects nothing on any actual movement in the South, simply higher turnout which is key to winning races and changing election outcomes obviously, but I really dont see how we win any of these seats within a week.  Not based off of these numbers anyway.

True in a conventional election
But when an election comes along when the electorate is disturbed -- by war, economic collapse, huge scandal -- and the mood is unsettled, things can change very rapidly. When they are feeling stress or anxiety, many votes will make up their minds, or change their minds, abruptly as election day approaches.

Since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in mid-September, it's been a part of Woody's fearless forecasting that the economic news will keep getting worse until long after the election. Declining home prices, falling stock market, lower retail sales, rising unemployment, more big bankruptcies, full blast recession.

I didn't dare to talk of states going broke, IMF bailouts of small European countries, or budget-busting partial nationalizations and bailouts of our nation's biggest banks, brokerage houses, insurance companies, non-bank financial companies like GE (parent of GE Credit), currency crises, etc.

(But I was smart enough to take my own advice, finally, and remove the last pennies in the stock market from my IRA at the end of September. Whew!)

Now let me update Woody's fearless forecast: The economic news will keep getting worse until LONG after the election. That will affect the election results. The evening of Nov 5 will be a thing of beauty, followed by a prolonged season of dark and dreadful gloom.

I'm not happy about it, but that's the way I call it.

[ Parent ]
Economic gloom
Altho I agree altogether with your economic prediction--and if you really want to get scared, read Black Swan by Nissim Taleb!--but I fail to see how this outlook would translate into winning CDs in one of the bleakest hearts of darkness, SC.  I grew up in one of these CDs during the '50s and '60s.  Surely it must be better now, but not enough for a Dem to win.
[ Parent ]
is the DCCC spending in SC-01?
Or is that one of the Red to Blue districts they're not invested in financially?

If they are spending money in an R+10 district in a state Obama will lose, I again question why Becky Greenwald has not gotten more help in her D+0 district in a state Obama will win big.

They spent a whopping 40K there.

[ Parent ]
They better not spend much there
It's a money pit.  We're not going to make up double-digit deficits in any of these three races in a deep red district in one week.  I can think of about 40 or so districts more worthy of an investment that SC-01.
[ Parent ]
Head fake?
I wonder if they're trying to goad the NRCC into playing defense here.
[ Parent ]
40 more need help?
Really? Even the most conservative listmakers hereabouts are saying the Dems will probably take 28 or so seats. Surely those races don't need the DCCC money more than SC-01.

It's pretty optimistic if you have a list of the 28 seats plus 40 others "more worthy of investment than" this Southern seat.

I can think of 40 more that need help, myself -- but they rank from about #50 to #90 on James L's little list.  

[ Parent ]
I love the title
Although, like most people here, I'm primarily interested in the possible pick-up of SC-01, where Linda Ketner would be the 2nd openly lesbian/homosexual member elected to congress (there have still been no openly gays elected to my knowledge). If Brown were to somehow say something anti-gay, would that then become another Bachmann statement that could possibly lead to the influx of hundreds of thousands of dollars from across the country of gay organizations, progressives and maybe the DCCC seeing a new pickup opportunity to blow some money in? Perhaps. This race has definitely become interesting.
He did tell her
in a debate to try being a "real Southern lady" but that's pretty coded.
[ Parent ]
I saw "Fried Green Tomatoes"
They looked like real southern ladies to me.

Amusingly, a friend told me when that movie was in theaters that her mom saw it and didn't pick up on any lesbian undertones.

[ Parent ]
Jared Polis
he'll be the first this year then
[ Parent ]
No openly gay men?!
Ahem!  You seem to have forgotten Barney the Frank in a district just west of downtown Boston!  He has been elected and re-elected for years and has been openly gay also for years--hence his chairmanship.

As for a homophobic remark producing a huge cash influx, that may be, but it would also produce lots of Repub votes as well.  SC ain't MA!

[ Parent ]
difference being
Frank wasn't elected as openly gay in his first run.  Not that I doubt he wouldn't have been able to pull that off, it would certainly be a lot easier to run for office, be elected and come out after than to do it from the get go.  No gay men have done that yet, but Polis will be first.

We still love Barney though, gives me the best clips to watch from CSPAN usually.

[ Parent ]
Tammy Baldwin (WI-02)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T...

Tammy Baldwin was openly gay when she was first elected to Congress in 1998.

[ Parent ]
Dangit!
Stop making such a big deal about her sexuality!  If you want the voters of SC-01 not to make a big deal of it, don't make such a big deal of it here!

I'm not saying it's a bad thing to count openly gay/lesbian congresspersons, I'm just saying that making a big deal of it is exactly the fodder that the Republicans WANT to play against.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
I agree with you.
It's an interesting aspect of the race but it really shouldn't matter. I will say that Ketner doing so well in a deep red district really says a lot about the direction of our country. I will say that I'm very proud of Ketner's efforts to break yet another glass ceiling in 2008.
[ Parent ]
2 shot deals
I view people like Ketner Johnson and Miller and even Gillespie as 2 shot deals.  

They are candidates that have no recognition going on that are exciting candidates that simply need to build up recognition and organization.  They take this year to do that and they have all done decently well in that regard.  Then, they come back in 2010 and try again.  This time, the DCCC will recognize their strengths much earlier and the support they already have will drive them much higher next time.  There are several such candidates out there this year and we will have to work hard to get them to try for 2010.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

The problem is
...for seats like these to be competitive, the either need to be open, or they need an incredible political environment. There's no guarantee that 2010 will be a good year for Dems.

And as for GA-01... it's hard for me to take this as a serious pickup opportunity when Gillespie's ads look and sound like they were created by a 14 year-old using iMovie:


[ Parent ]
Not so bad in GA-01
That 14-year-old may have a big future. Uh, James L., I know you saw the ads for Big John Cornyn in Texas. How much did they cost? Who did they convince ? Anyway, these ads are only on the Internet so far, right?

I'm afraid the whole discussion about GA-01 (among others) is about coulda, shoulda, woulda. And as I've said before, on the morning of Nov 5, no one is going to take responsibility for the Larry Kissell and Vic Wutsin races of the 08 cycle. All the experts will proclaim, Nobody saw it coming. Or, even more delicious, It just shows hard hard it is to win in that district. Nobody at all will admit, I really blew it when I sent another $100,000 to that race in [______] when I could have sprinkled $10,000 over each of 10 longshot races.

By the time another of the rare wave year elections comes along, all positions of influence will be occupied by experts whose experience spans a decade or more of conventional elections -- where a dozen seats or fewer change hands. And another opportunity of a lifetime will be squandered.

[ Parent ]
Well
Anyway, these ads are only on the Internet so far, right?

His campaign calls 'em "television ads", so I'm assuming they at the very least WANT to get 'em on the air, if they didn't make a buy already.

The "Big John" ad, as far as I'm aware, was never broadcast. The "cow whisperer" ones, on the other hand, were.

In any event, we only have a few more days until we find out where our biggest missed opportunities were.

[ Parent ]
If they had the money
I think they would throw these ads on TV if they had the money. Seems I was asked for money and they said $100 to put one of the internet ads on cable in Waycross. And if they got the money tomorrow, they should go with them. Better these ads by a 14-year-old than no ads at all.

But I'm more than tapped out on my contributions at this point. I'm as overextended as an Iceland bank. That's why I'm yelling at the DCCC and others, cuz not a damn thing I can do about it now.

I seem to recall that they did go ahead and put the Big John ad on TV, maybe thinking that the damage was done so brazen on through. But I didn't see it myself. I have read other reviews of Cornyn ads that panned them, black and white and feeling out of touch.

[ Parent ]
For anybody else who didn't see the "cow whisperer" ads.

I'll save you the trouble of searching for this Texas masterpiece.

[ Parent ]
SC-01 has DEFINITE Take Two potential...
Henry Brown is in his 70's, and with a big D gain this year, he would be looking at more than two more years in the minority.  

If Ketner doesn't win, but gets 44% or more, I think there is a good chance Brown will retire in 2010. In which case, Ketner will be well-positioned.

[ Parent ]
Dem only down 4 points in MD-01 race (R2K)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/20-22. Likely voters. MoE ±5% (no trendlines).

Harris (R) 44
Kratovil (D) 40

At first glance I thought the poll oversampled Dems by giving us a 3% edge in voters.  But after looking at the MD elections website Dems do have an edge in registration.  That edge has likely grown since the primary regitration which is their most recent update of registration.

http://www.elections.state.md....

SC-01, SC-02, NC-10: Southern Discomfort (for the GOP) | 26 comments

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