Grove Insight for DCCC (10/21, likely voters, 10/4-5):
Gary Peters (D): 46 (46)
Joe Knollenberg (R-inc): 36 (37)
Jack Kevorkian (I): 2 (n/a)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for DCCC (10/19-20, likely voters, 9/30-10/1):
Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 44 (44)
Steve Stivers (R): 36 (36)
Don Eckhart (I): 11 (7)
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Two new polls from the DCCC show Democratic candidates in midwestern swing district races maintaining their sizable leads from last time. In the open seat in the Columbus-based 15th, the head-to-head numbers stay exactly the same; the only movement, unfortunately for Stivers, seems to be to pro-life independent Don Eckhart. (At the presidential level, Obama leads McCain 51-39 in OH-15.)
MI-09 continues to be a big surprise, as Gary Peters puts up a bigger margin against incumbent Joe Knollenberg than in the open seat in OH-15. This one just seems like a perfect storm: the Detroit area was already suffering economically more than any other part of the country, it's suffering even more with the financial crisis and subsequent free fall in the auto industry, and we have an old incumbent who hasn't faced a top-tier challenge before.
